Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '18

October 21, 2018

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

For a fading moment, we thought we saw the Big Dipper floating through the second floor of the MHSAA office Sunday morning.

Michigan’s northernmost high school in Calumet held the handle – but the only place the rest of the Region pointed was to questions about how we could come up with such a disjointed scenario for this season’s Division 6 Playoffs.

Below – as has become an annual tradition – we’ll answer that question and a few more about this year’s selection process.

Our mission Sunday was to map 213 automatic qualifiers for 11-player football – and a record 43 additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 records – plus our top 32 8-player teams across 10 divisions of playoffs that will conclude with the latter Nov. 17 at Northern Michigan University and 11-player Nov. 23-24 at Ford Field.

As often noted in the past, this process didn’t start Sunday morning – but months and in some cases more than a year ago when athletic directors began scheduling games for this fall. We make sure all are loaded into our system by early summer, and then follow every score/cancellation/forfeit/additional change through Week 9’s final games – including this season those for 46 teams from other states or Ontario that played Michigan schools and needed to be followed as well because their successes affected MHSAA teams’ strengths of schedule.

Now that the maps are drawn, we line up all that will come with the next five weeks of games including assigning officials, gathering potential Semifinal sites and continuing our work with our Finals hosts to create memorable experiences as teams play for championships.

So we’re off. For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2018.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions plus a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. Go to this page on MHSAA.com to see the pairings in full.

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, and in 2017 a second division of 8-player football was introduced.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent 11-player playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors and coaches). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

As noted above, this season there were 213 automatic qualifiers for the 11-player field by win total with the final 43 additional qualifiers then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only five Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so with those five we added 13 teams from Class A and B and 12 from Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by red dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The 8-player process is different for team selection and similar for designation of Regionals. We take the top 32 teams in 8-player based on playoff point average as our field, then re-sort those 32 by enrollment – the 16 biggest make up Division 1, followed by the next 16 in Division 2. There are no automatic qualifiers by record for 8-player.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 (or in 8-player, 16) dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2018

We always start with CONGRATULATIONS: And this season they go first to Detroit Community, Detroit Public Safety Academy and Dexter, which made the MHSAA Football Playoffs for the first time. Of 611 football varsities across the state, all but 12 have made the playoffs at least once. Rockford missed out on an automatic bid with a Week 9 loss, but received an additional qualifier berth to set the record by making the MHSAA Playoffs for the 24th straight season. Crystal Falls Forest Park (22 seasons), Stevensville Lakeshore (21), Macomb Dakota (18), Climax-Scotts (16) and Grand Rapids West Catholic (16) also extended their stays on the list for longest MHSAA playoff streaks.

Break the tie: We again had to break a tie (actually two for District rounds) as teams that will or could meet ended up with the same playoff point averages. Ties are broken by head-to-head competition first – if the teams played each other during the regular season – followed by opponents’ winning percentage as the second criteria and then a coin flip if those two won’t do it. Our tie-breaks this season both took place in Division 4 – Grand Rapids South Christian received a home game against Wyoming Godwin Heights this week and St. Clair will host North Branch if they meet in a District Final. There are more possible meetings of teams with same averages in later rounds, and those ties will be broken the same way.

What is up with Division 6: Last year I had a “worst map ever,” and two of them this year would be in contention. Division 6 is the first – but the explanation for how we came up with what we did is simple. Region 1 is made up of two Districts with six schools from the northern Lower Peninsula and two from the Upper Peninsula. So however the Districts were sliced, two Lower Peninsula schools had to go with the U.P. And we settled this one strictly by comparing highway mileages of those Lower Peninsula teams to Mackinac Bridge (again, the only way to travel between the peninsulas). In the end, we placed Elk Rapids (93 miles) and Traverse City St. Francis (124) with Escanaba and Ishpeming Westwood because they are closest to the Bridge – followed by Kingsley (126), Maple City Glen Lake (144), Beaverton (161) and Tawas (168). The optics are strange – it may look like Glen Lake is driving past Elk Rapids and St. Francis on the way to Beaverton this week and potentially Tawas next. But Glen Lake’s route still travels south of those two schools this week (and depending on its chosen route on the way to Tawas as well), making everything fit – strangely looking, but nonetheless.

Lake Huron tour: You could see most of the American side by checking out this week’s Region 2 games in 8-player Division 2. This map also looks odd – there’s a bridge crossing and a drive around Saginaw Bay. Yet, after drawing this at least two more ways, we settled here – although Region 2 looks a little odd, all four teams are east of I-75 and north of Bay City.

Get your zoom on: We don’t enjoy splitting up teams that live next door to each other, but sometimes it’s a must. In Division 7 we were able to keep all eight Detroit-area and southeastern schools in Region 4, but the distance between its Districts came down to a few miles along I-96. In Division 2, we had to factor in outliers Port Huron Northern and Temperance Bedford – and the resulting Districts ended up splitting Livonia Churchill and Livonia Franklin.

At the end of the day …

I include this every year, but we draw the maps not knowing which schools are represented by the dots. At one point Sunday morning, I was wrong about which division we were considering at the time – and that’s a good thing. For the map drawing portion, it doesn’t matter.

But now that we know who is going where, here’s a glance at some stories that might emerge this week:

• We’ve got rivalries, like Portage Northern at Portage Central and Birmingham Groves at Birmingham Seaholm in Division 2, St. Johns at DeWitt and Haslett at East Lansing in Division 3, Constantine at Schoolcraft in Division 6 and Waterford Our Lady at Clarkston Everest Collegiate in Division 8 – plus Kingston at Deckerville in 8-player Division 1. There are many more we could mention – and some potential feuds renewed in two weeks as well depending on who wins this round.

• The Macomb Area Red, generally considered one of the strongest leagues annually in the state, sent four of six teams to the Division 1 playoffs – and they’re all in the same District. Champion Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (9-0) takes on Utica Eisenhower this week, and with a win would face either Macomb Dakota or Romeo after defeating both by just seven points during the regular season.

• Perhaps the most intriguing opener statewide is River Rouge (8-1) at Detroit Martin Luther King (7-2) in Division 3. Neither gets tested much during their league seasons, but both played tough nonleague opponents and the winner will be considered a favorite to make it to Ford Field.

• Farmington Hills Harrison holds the records for most MHSAA Finals appearances (18) and titles (13) and will play its final playoffs in Division 4 after finishing Division 3 runner-up a year ago. The school is closing next spring. Coach John Herrington is the winningest in state history with 441 wins and counting against only 111 losses (and a tie).

• There are a few annual powers not in the bracket this season – most notably Lowell, Muskegon Catholic Central and Menominee – and others like Rockford, Mendon and Grand Rapids West Catholic got in as additional qualifiers. West Catholic has won five straight Division 5 championships and opens at Hudsonville Unity Christian. The Falcons won the 2013 title after also entering as a 5-4 team.

• There are 34 teams entering the playoffs unbeaten, but only four Districts have multiple – Manistee and Reed City share one in Division 5, Traverse City St. Francis and Calumet in Division 6, Reading and Ottawa Lake Whiteford in Division 8, and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian and Morrice in 8-player Division 1. All of those potential matchups would happen in 11-Player District or 8-Player Regional Finals.

• This will be the eighth year of the 8-player tournament, and in Division 1 only Deckerville in 2012 has won an MHSAA championship in this format. In Division 2, reigning champion Crystal Falls Forest Park opens with 2015-16 back-to-back champion Powers North Central.

• In 8-player, three teams with 5-4 records didn’t make the field of 32, and two teams with 4-5 records advanced. This is the reality of measuring by playoff point average. Fife Lake Forest Area and Webberville are the 4-5 teams, and their opponents this season won more than 61 percent of their games. The three teams at 5-4 and one at 4-4 had opponents’ winning percentages between 38-56 percent.

Every school and every community can tell a story of making these playoffs, and over the next five weeks the fortunate will continue to write chapters filled with moments that will never be forgotten. We’re looking forward to watching them all unfold.

PHOTOS: (Top) The Division 6 map shows an odd-looking scenario with two Traverse City-area teams in the same District as two from the Upper Peninsula. (Middle) The 8-player Division 2 map shows how schools are connected to a District along the Lake Huron shoreline.

1st & Goal: 2023 Week 9 Preview

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

October 18, 2023

Memories are guaranteed to be made this weekend.

MI Student AidOnly 288 teams qualify for the MHSAA Football Playoffs. And while the great majority have secured spots in the field to be announced Sunday, there’s still opportunity for last-minute movement this weekend; in 2021, 15 teams joined the field during Week 9, and last season that total was 14. 

That also brings us to some potential history being made.

Perry may be on the verge of making the playoffs for the first time. The Ramblers enter the weekend 5-3, playing Bath (also 5-3) and sitting No. 25 on the Division 7 playoff-points average list. Hart also is playing to secure a first playoff berth and sits 7-1 in Division 6, hosting Ravenna (3-5). 

Detroit University Prep Science & Math and Jackson Northwest are seeking the same, but likely will need help. University Prep is 5-3 and No. 37 on the Division 3 playoff-points average list, while Northwest is 4-4 and No. 38. The top 32 qualify in each 11-player division, and the top 16 qualify in both divisions of 8-player.

By the end of Saturday night, the field will be known – follow all of the playoff-point average movement in real-time on the Playoff Point Summary page.

How those teams are assigned to Districts and Regionals, and who plays who, will be announced at 6 p.m. Sunday on Bally Sports Detroit Extra. Tune in via your cable provider or the BSD website. Pairings will then be posted to MHSAA.com at 7 p.m., with dates, times and locations for all games added Monday.

(All games below are Friday unless noted.)

Bay & Thumb

Frankenmuth (7-1) at Gladwin (7-1)

This rematch of last season’s Division 5 championship game – won by Gladwin 10-7 on a field goal with two seconds to play – seems a fitting way to roll into these playoffs. Both continued league title streaks this fall, Gladwin with its third-straight in the Jack Pine Conference and Frankenmuth clinching its 12th-in a row in the Tri-Valley Conference. Both have losses against MHSAA championship contenders – Gladwin 56-21 to undefeated Division 5 Pontiac Notre Dame Prep and Frankenmuth 14-8 in its opener to 2022 Division 4 runner-up Goodrich. Both are putting up more than 40 points a game this fall with several new contributors, and depending on how the lines are drawn they could see each other a second time; Frankenmuth is No. 8 in Division 5 playoff-point average, and Gladwin is No. 14.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Ogemaw Heights (7-1) at Almont (8-0) - WATCH, Lapeer (5-3) at Davison (8-0), Port Huron (7-1) at Marysville (6-2), Croswell-Lexington (7-1) at Freeland (7-1) - WATCH.

Greater Detroit

Northville (8-0) at Belleville (8-0) - WATCH

The overall Kensington Lakes Activities Association championship is on the line, along with perfect regular seasons for both and Belleville’s 33-game winning streak. Five of eight teams in the KLAA East are .500 or better heading into this weekend, and Belleville outscored all of its conference opponents by a combined 345-18 over the last seven weeks. Northville, champion of the KLAA West, is the Tigers’ next challenger and another good one – the Mustangs are actually No. 2 in Division 1 playoff-point average, while Belleville is No. 6. Keep in mind, this again could be just the first round between these two over the next few weeks.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Birmingham Groves (6-2) at Birmingham Seaholm (7-1) - WATCH, Grosse Pointe North (6-2) at Grosse Pointe South (7-1), Detroit Denby (8-0) at Warren De La Salle Collegiate (6-2). SATURDAY Detroit Cass Tech (6-2) vs. Toledo Central Catholic (9-0) at Ford Field

Mid-Michigan

East Lansing (6-2) at Grand Ledge (6-2) - WATCH

The Capital Area Activities Conference Blue is one of few with title possibilities remaining, as East Lansing clinched a guaranteed share against Holt last week but Grand Ledge and DeWitt are both just one game back with this one (and DeWitt’s against Lansing Waverly) to play. East Lansing had won four straight over its longtime rival before the Comets prevailed 45-30 last season. After opening 0-2 against opponents that remain a combined 12-4, East Lansing has churned to 42 points per game over its last six games while giving up just 70 points total during that time. The Comets’ league loss came to DeWitt, 41-38 in Week 6, and they fell to Lapeer as well a week later before rebounding against Okemos to set up this title-share opportunity.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Goodrich (7-1) at Williamston (6-2), McBain (5-3) at Fowler (7-1) - WATCH, Harbor Beach (7-1) at Beal City (8-0) - WATCH, Berrien Springs (5-2) at Portland (8-0).

Northern Lower Peninsula

Traverse City Central (4-4) at Traverse City West (3-5) - WATCH

The annual Patriot Game between these neighbors at their shared Thirlby Field will no doubt have the same festive feel this weekend, but with different factors in play. Both are among three teams tied for second in the Saginaw Valley League Blue that’s already been clinched by Mount Pleasant, and instead both are battling for some level of playoff opportunity – Central is No. 29 in Division 2 playoff-point average, and West may only be able to play spoiler sitting at No. 41. Central last missed the playoffs in 2013, but has won this rivalry matchup four straight seasons although only 14-13 a year ago. West saw a similar run of postseason success end a year ago and has improved by a win this season – and adding one more no doubt would give the Titans something to build on for 2024.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Elk Rapids (4-4) at East Jordan (5-3) - WATCH, Grayling (5-3) at Lake City (6-2), Clare (6-2) at Petoskey (5-3) - WATCH. SATURDAY Muskegon Catholic Central (5-3) at Traverse City St. Francis (3-4) - WATCH.

Southeast & Border

Addison (8-0) at Napoleon (8-0)

It's tough to rank any game above Saline/Lake Orion below, but these two also are undefeated and meeting for the overall Cascades Conference championship in the first season after the league split into divisions. These teams have split their last six meetings – Napoleon winning 36-18 last year to finish off an outright Cascades title – and both soundly defeated their three mutual opponents on the way here. This will provide one last strong test heading into what surely will be tough playoff brackets for both. Napoleon is tied for No. 2 in Division 7 playoff-point average, but No. 1 Jackson Lumen Christi and No. 5 Clinton could be opponents soon. Addison is No. 7 in Division 8 playoff-point average with No. 1 Ottawa Lake Whiteford and No. 6 Hudson possibly down the road.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Hudson (7-1) at Clinton (7-1) - WATCH, Chelsea (7-1) at Dexter (6-2), Lake Orion (8-0) at Saline (8-0) - WATCH. SATURDAY Battle Creek Harper Creek (6-2) vs. Jackson Lumen Christi (7-1) at Ford Field.

Southwest Corridor

Paw Paw (8-0) at Niles (7-1) - WATCH

From a trophy perspective, this might be the most significant 11-player game in the state this weekend – a winner-take-all for the Wolverine Conference championship. Along the way, they’ve guaranteed an end to Edwardsburg’s league title reign at nine straight – including the last seven in the combined Wolverine after the league previously was split into divisions – and both contenders have left no doubt they are the elite in the league this fall. After opening with a 55-0 win over St. Joseph and then taking its lone loss to Stevensville Lakeshore, 15-14, Niles has outscored its other six Wolverine opponents by a combined 335-37, with three straight shutouts heading into this matchup. Paw Paw hasn’t had a game closer than three touchdowns all season and has outscored its other league opponents by a combined 227-53.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Union City (6-2) at Buchanan (5-3) - WATCH, Hastings (6-2) at Battle Creek Pennfield (4-4), South Haven (5-3) at Kalamazoo United (5-3), Stevensville Lakeshore (5-3) at Portage Central (7-1).

Upper Peninsula

Iron Mountain (8-0) at Negaunee (7-1), Thursday - WATCH

This matchup of Western Peninsula Athletic Conference powers kicks off Week 9 in a big way Thursday, as Iron Mountain dominated in winning the Iron championship and Negaunee came back from a Week 2 loss to claim a share in the Copper. Iron Mountain played in the Copper most recently, until this season, and the league matchups between these two were decided by three points twice and two points once – all Iron Mountain wins – before Negaunee claimed last year’s 19-14. The Miners this time are coming off a 13-6 win over Houghton – which the Mountaineers defeated 56-6 in the opener two months ago – and they’ve had no other common opponent. But what they do have in common are playing styles, as both have dominating defenses and potent run games.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Menominee (6-2) at Bark River-Harris (5-3) - WATCH, Gaylord (8-0) at Sault Ste. Marie (5-3) - WATCH, Saginaw Nouvel (3-5) at Manistique (4-4) - WATCH, Kingsford (7-1) at Marquette (5-2) - WATCH.

West Michigan

Hudsonville (5-3) at Rockford (8-0) - WATCH

The Ottawa-Kent Conference Red will be the last of the O-K divisions to fully crown its champion, as Rockford earned a share of the title last week with a 34-13 win over second-place Grandville but needs to down Hudsonville as well to clinch outright. That result over the Bulldogs was Rockford’s closest in league play this season and no opponent league or nonleague has gotten closer than 20 points. But Hudsonville can shake things up and showed the ability with its Week 2 win over East Lansing and narrow loss to Grandville in Week 5. Rockford has won the last eight meetings between this pair, but Hudsonville played the Rams to 42-31 a year ago despite finishing only 3-6. In fact, one more win would assure the Eagles their best record since at least 2019. Rockford sits first in Division 1 playoff-point average, guaranteeing three home playoff games if that position is maintained, while Hudsonville is slotting No. 24 and should benefit playing this game win or lose.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Coopersville (6-2) at Allendale (6-2), East Grand Rapids (6-2) at Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern (6-2) - WATCH, Montague (4-4) at Muskegon Oakridge (5-3) - WATCH, Schoolcraft (6-2) at Saugatuck (7-1) - WATCH.

8-Player

Indian River Inland Lakes (7-1) at Gaylord St. Mary (6-2), Saturday

This is also a winner-take-all as these two sit tied for first in the Ski Valley Conference. Inland Lakes has won the league title both seasons as part of it for 8-player football, including last year thanks to a 44-40 win over St. Mary on the way to the Snowbirds finishing second. All of that alone makes this big, but the St. Mary’s season also is on the line. Inland Lakes sits No. 8 in 8-player Division 1 playoff-point average, but St. Mary is No. 18, just outside the qualifying field after losing last week to Rudyard, which sits No. 16. Neither team has missed the playoffs since switching to the 8-player format, St. Mary in 2019 and Inland Lakes in 2020.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Posen (7-0) at Au Gres-Sims (7-1) - WATCH, Bay City All Saints (7-1) at Brown City (8-0) - WATCH, St. Ignace (7-1) at Pickford (8-0) - WATCH, Climax-Scotts (8-0) at Pittsford (7-1) - WATCH.

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PHOTO Ortonville Brandon and Goodrich face off Oct. 6 during a downpour. (Photo by Terry Lyons.)