Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '18
October 21, 2018
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
For a fading moment, we thought we saw the Big Dipper floating through the second floor of the MHSAA office Sunday morning.
Michigan’s northernmost high school in Calumet held the handle – but the only place the rest of the Region pointed was to questions about how we could come up with such a disjointed scenario for this season’s Division 6 Playoffs.
Below – as has become an annual tradition – we’ll answer that question and a few more about this year’s selection process.
Our mission Sunday was to map 213 automatic qualifiers for 11-player football – and a record 43 additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 records – plus our top 32 8-player teams across 10 divisions of playoffs that will conclude with the latter Nov. 17 at Northern Michigan University and 11-player Nov. 23-24 at Ford Field.
As often noted in the past, this process didn’t start Sunday morning – but months and in some cases more than a year ago when athletic directors began scheduling games for this fall. We make sure all are loaded into our system by early summer, and then follow every score/cancellation/forfeit/additional change through Week 9’s final games – including this season those for 46 teams from other states or Ontario that played Michigan schools and needed to be followed as well because their successes affected MHSAA teams’ strengths of schedule.
Now that the maps are drawn, we line up all that will come with the next five weeks of games including assigning officials, gathering potential Semifinal sites and continuing our work with our Finals hosts to create memorable experiences as teams play for championships.
So we’re off. For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2018.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions plus a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. Go to this page on MHSAA.com to see the pairings in full.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, and in 2017 a second division of 8-player football was introduced.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent 11-player playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors and coaches). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
As noted above, this season there were 213 automatic qualifiers for the 11-player field by win total with the final 43 additional qualifiers then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only five Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so with those five we added 13 teams from Class A and B and 12 from Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by red dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The 8-player process is different for team selection and similar for designation of Regionals. We take the top 32 teams in 8-player based on playoff point average as our field, then re-sort those 32 by enrollment – the 16 biggest make up Division 1, followed by the next 16 in Division 2. There are no automatic qualifiers by record for 8-player.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 (or in 8-player, 16) dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2018
We always start with CONGRATULATIONS: And this season they go first to Detroit Community, Detroit Public Safety Academy and Dexter, which made the MHSAA Football Playoffs for the first time. Of 611 football varsities across the state, all but 12 have made the playoffs at least once. Rockford missed out on an automatic bid with a Week 9 loss, but received an additional qualifier berth to set the record by making the MHSAA Playoffs for the 24th straight season. Crystal Falls Forest Park (22 seasons), Stevensville Lakeshore (21), Macomb Dakota (18), Climax-Scotts (16) and Grand Rapids West Catholic (16) also extended their stays on the list for longest MHSAA playoff streaks.
Break the tie: We again had to break a tie (actually two for District rounds) as teams that will or could meet ended up with the same playoff point averages. Ties are broken by head-to-head competition first – if the teams played each other during the regular season – followed by opponents’ winning percentage as the second criteria and then a coin flip if those two won’t do it. Our tie-breaks this season both took place in Division 4 – Grand Rapids South Christian received a home game against Wyoming Godwin Heights this week and St. Clair will host North Branch if they meet in a District Final. There are more possible meetings of teams with same averages in later rounds, and those ties will be broken the same way.
What is up with Division 6: Last year I had a “worst map ever,” and two of them this year would be in contention. Division 6 is the first – but the explanation for how we came up with what we did is simple. Region 1 is made up of two Districts with six schools from the northern Lower Peninsula and two from the Upper Peninsula. So however the Districts were sliced, two Lower Peninsula schools had to go with the U.P. And we settled this one strictly by comparing highway mileages of those Lower Peninsula teams to Mackinac Bridge (again, the only way to travel between the peninsulas). In the end, we placed Elk Rapids (93 miles) and Traverse City St. Francis (124) with Escanaba and Ishpeming Westwood because they are closest to the Bridge – followed by Kingsley (126), Maple City Glen Lake (144), Beaverton (161) and Tawas (168). The optics are strange – it may look like Glen Lake is driving past Elk Rapids and St. Francis on the way to Beaverton this week and potentially Tawas next. But Glen Lake’s route still travels south of those two schools this week (and depending on its chosen route on the way to Tawas as well), making everything fit – strangely looking, but nonetheless.
Lake Huron tour: You could see most of the American side by checking out this week’s Region 2 games in 8-player Division 2. This map also looks odd – there’s a bridge crossing and a drive around Saginaw Bay. Yet, after drawing this at least two more ways, we settled here – although Region 2 looks a little odd, all four teams are east of I-75 and north of Bay City.
Get your zoom on: We don’t enjoy splitting up teams that live next door to each other, but sometimes it’s a must. In Division 7 we were able to keep all eight Detroit-area and southeastern schools in Region 4, but the distance between its Districts came down to a few miles along I-96. In Division 2, we had to factor in outliers Port Huron Northern and Temperance Bedford – and the resulting Districts ended up splitting Livonia Churchill and Livonia Franklin.
At the end of the day …
I include this every year, but we draw the maps not knowing which schools are represented by the dots. At one point Sunday morning, I was wrong about which division we were considering at the time – and that’s a good thing. For the map drawing portion, it doesn’t matter.
But now that we know who is going where, here’s a glance at some stories that might emerge this week:
• We’ve got rivalries, like Portage Northern at Portage Central and Birmingham Groves at Birmingham Seaholm in Division 2, St. Johns at DeWitt and Haslett at East Lansing in Division 3, Constantine at Schoolcraft in Division 6 and Waterford Our Lady at Clarkston Everest Collegiate in Division 8 – plus Kingston at Deckerville in 8-player Division 1. There are many more we could mention – and some potential feuds renewed in two weeks as well depending on who wins this round.
• The Macomb Area Red, generally considered one of the strongest leagues annually in the state, sent four of six teams to the Division 1 playoffs – and they’re all in the same District. Champion Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (9-0) takes on Utica Eisenhower this week, and with a win would face either Macomb Dakota or Romeo after defeating both by just seven points during the regular season.
• Perhaps the most intriguing opener statewide is River Rouge (8-1) at Detroit Martin Luther King (7-2) in Division 3. Neither gets tested much during their league seasons, but both played tough nonleague opponents and the winner will be considered a favorite to make it to Ford Field.
• Farmington Hills Harrison holds the records for most MHSAA Finals appearances (18) and titles (13) and will play its final playoffs in Division 4 after finishing Division 3 runner-up a year ago. The school is closing next spring. Coach John Herrington is the winningest in state history with 441 wins and counting against only 111 losses (and a tie).
• There are a few annual powers not in the bracket this season – most notably Lowell, Muskegon Catholic Central and Menominee – and others like Rockford, Mendon and Grand Rapids West Catholic got in as additional qualifiers. West Catholic has won five straight Division 5 championships and opens at Hudsonville Unity Christian. The Falcons won the 2013 title after also entering as a 5-4 team.
• There are 34 teams entering the playoffs unbeaten, but only four Districts have multiple – Manistee and Reed City share one in Division 5, Traverse City St. Francis and Calumet in Division 6, Reading and Ottawa Lake Whiteford in Division 8, and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian and Morrice in 8-player Division 1. All of those potential matchups would happen in 11-Player District or 8-Player Regional Finals.
• This will be the eighth year of the 8-player tournament, and in Division 1 only Deckerville in 2012 has won an MHSAA championship in this format. In Division 2, reigning champion Crystal Falls Forest Park opens with 2015-16 back-to-back champion Powers North Central.
• In 8-player, three teams with 5-4 records didn’t make the field of 32, and two teams with 4-5 records advanced. This is the reality of measuring by playoff point average. Fife Lake Forest Area and Webberville are the 4-5 teams, and their opponents this season won more than 61 percent of their games. The three teams at 5-4 and one at 4-4 had opponents’ winning percentages between 38-56 percent.
Every school and every community can tell a story of making these playoffs, and over the next five weeks the fortunate will continue to write chapters filled with moments that will never be forgotten. We’re looking forward to watching them all unfold.
PHOTOS: (Top) The Division 6 map shows an odd-looking scenario with two Traverse City-area teams in the same District as two from the Upper Peninsula. (Middle) The 8-player Division 2 map shows how schools are connected to a District along the Lake Huron shoreline.
Carlson's 'Power-Spread' Piling Up Points Despite Missing Leading Rusher
By
Doug Donnelly
Special for MHSAA.com
October 2, 2024
In Johnny Cash’s song “One Piece at a Time,” the main character collects car parts over the years to build a one-of-a-kind automobile.
At the end of the song, he’s asked what model it is. That’s where he runs into trouble.
“Well, it’s a ’49, ’50, ’51, ’52 …” Cash sings.
That automobile is a lot like the offense that has Gibraltar Carlson’s football team off to a 5-0 start.
“We pride ourselves in running the football here,” third-year head coach Jason Gendron said. “That is our identity. We play power football.”
That’s not the full story, however.
“We are multi-set, really,” Gendron said. “We have Wing-T principles, but we are a spread, Wing-T team that can go tight formations with two tight ends and three running backs. We also can go spread and run some run-pass option things. We also like to run counter off that.
“At the end of the day, power football is where we like to be. We can run that out of multiple sets. Everything we do is based off power.”
Marauders quarterback Joe Krolak agrees. Sort of.
“It’s power-spread,” Krolak said. “It’s hard to describe. We can go under center, or we can go spread.”
No matter what you call it, the Marauders’ offense is clicking in all gears. Carlson is averaging a two-point conversion shy of 50 points a game in their 5-0 start.
That Carlson is having success is not surprising or anything new. The Marauders have won four straight Downriver League championships and have made the playoffs seven years running. The surprising piece this season is they have done it without Division I college recruit Izaiah Wright, the junior running back who rushed for 1,965 yards and 31 touchdowns as a sophomore in leading Carlson to a 10-2 record.
Wright played in Week 1. But on the first offensive series of the game in Week 2, he went down with an ankle injury and hasn’t played since.
“It’s been a slow recovery,” Gendron said. “He’s been week-to-week. He’s getting closer. I do think he’ll play again this year, but I don’t know if he will be 100 percent this year.”
In his place, the Marauders were sharing carries among multiple backs until last week when junior Avery Ortiz got the full workload. He responded with 200 yards rushing and multiple touchdowns.
Gendron said he and the Carlson coaches saw the potential in Ortiz.
“Avery has been the running back who has emerged,” Gendron said. “We feel Avery is one of the best backs in our conference and southeast Michigan.”
Ortiz has been Wright’s backup for a couple of seasons. Last year Gendron asked Ortiz about changing positions to get him on the field, and he started playing safety. This season, with Wright out, Ortiz found himself on the offensive side of the ball again.
“He has great vision and is really good on his cuts,” Gendron said. “Avery is a running back at heart. He’s always wanted to be the running back here, but you have a kid in front of him who is a Division I player who beat him out. That’s just the way it goes. At least he was humble enough to accept that and find another place to play. For him to get that back, seize the moment and run with it, is the credit to the type of kid he is.”
Krolak said the offense hasn’t skipped a beat with Ortiz as the featured back.
“Everybody knows in this program it’s next man up,” Krolak said. “We have a lot of athletes in this program who can do the same things he can do. Avery has really stepped up big. He’s looking phenomenal. He’s a great running back and has carried us through this.”
Gendron called Krolak the team’s first-half MVP. Krolak has completed 44 of 62 passes for 669 yards and six touchdowns and rushed for another 406 yards and nine touchdowns.
“Joe is a very dangerous runner and has gotten better at throwing,” Gendron said. “He’s a dual-threat quarterback. You can’t just key on Izaiah or Avery. You have to have eyes on Joe. He’s been the player of the year for us without question. He’s leading us and doing everything I’ve asked him to do at the position. He’s having a great year.”
Krolak, a senior, said he was ready for his number to be called more with Wright out.
“I knew I would get the ball more,” Krolak said. “Coach told me I was going to run the ball more and throw it around, and I was completely ready for it.”
Carlson has several more weapons, including tight end Drew Sikora and receivers Brendan Stanley and Landon Vida. Everything starts up front, however.
“I tell our offensive line that they are the most important position group on the field, both our offensive and defensive lines,” Gendron said. “They have bought in and embraced that and the fact that we want to be a power, smash-mouth football team.”
Carlson’s been pretty good on defense, too, giving up just six touchdowns all season.
Gendron is a Monroe Jefferson graduate who played for Marc Cisco, who retired after 47 years coaching the Bears. That’s where Gendron learned the fundamentals of the game and about power football.
“It works,” Gendron said. “It worked back then for Marc, and it works for us. It’s good football. I believe in it. The kids buy into it. There’s nothing better from an offensive standpoint when you can get three yards at will and you can call the play again and it works.”
The current offense is a mix of Gendron’s years playing at Jefferson and schematic strategies incorporated by Dan Kalbfleisch, the Carlson athletic director and assistant football coach.
“We’ve blended Dan’s experience with his spread concepts and the things I value about offensive football – the ground and pound, power football concepts – into one offense. Dan brings the pre-snap, tempo, no-huddle offense with motion and getting guys into space. That’s what you see. We both believe in running the football.”
Carlson has some tough games ahead, but Gendron is pleased with how the season is shaping up. With a little luck, they might get Wright back in time for a playoff run.
“We are on schedule right now,” he said. “Our guys have done what they need to do at this point. We take things one week at a time. Trenton is on the clock right now.”
Doug Donnelly has served as a sports and news reporter and city editor over 25 years, writing for the Daily Chief-Union in Upper Sandusky, Ohio from 1992-1995, the Monroe Evening News from 1995-2012 and the Adrian Daily Telegram since 2013. He's also written a book on high school basketball in Monroe County and compiles record books for various schools in southeast Michigan. E-mail him at [email protected] with story ideas for Jackson, Washtenaw, Hillsdale, Lenawee and Monroe counties.
PHOTOS (Top) Gibraltar Carlson quarterback Joe Krolak considers his best option during last week’s win over Southgate Anderson. (Middle) Carlson coach Jason Gendron pumps up his team during a practice. (Below) The Marauders’ Avery Ortiz drags a defender downfield. (Game photos by Kim Britt; practice photo by Niles Kruger/Monroe News.)