Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '18
October 21, 2018
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
For a fading moment, we thought we saw the Big Dipper floating through the second floor of the MHSAA office Sunday morning.
Michigan’s northernmost high school in Calumet held the handle – but the only place the rest of the Region pointed was to questions about how we could come up with such a disjointed scenario for this season’s Division 6 Playoffs.
Below – as has become an annual tradition – we’ll answer that question and a few more about this year’s selection process.
Our mission Sunday was to map 213 automatic qualifiers for 11-player football – and a record 43 additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 records – plus our top 32 8-player teams across 10 divisions of playoffs that will conclude with the latter Nov. 17 at Northern Michigan University and 11-player Nov. 23-24 at Ford Field.
As often noted in the past, this process didn’t start Sunday morning – but months and in some cases more than a year ago when athletic directors began scheduling games for this fall. We make sure all are loaded into our system by early summer, and then follow every score/cancellation/forfeit/additional change through Week 9’s final games – including this season those for 46 teams from other states or Ontario that played Michigan schools and needed to be followed as well because their successes affected MHSAA teams’ strengths of schedule.
Now that the maps are drawn, we line up all that will come with the next five weeks of games including assigning officials, gathering potential Semifinal sites and continuing our work with our Finals hosts to create memorable experiences as teams play for championships.
So we’re off. For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2018.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions plus a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. Go to this page on MHSAA.com to see the pairings in full.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, and in 2017 a second division of 8-player football was introduced.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent 11-player playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors and coaches). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
As noted above, this season there were 213 automatic qualifiers for the 11-player field by win total with the final 43 additional qualifiers then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only five Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so with those five we added 13 teams from Class A and B and 12 from Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by red dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The 8-player process is different for team selection and similar for designation of Regionals. We take the top 32 teams in 8-player based on playoff point average as our field, then re-sort those 32 by enrollment – the 16 biggest make up Division 1, followed by the next 16 in Division 2. There are no automatic qualifiers by record for 8-player.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 (or in 8-player, 16) dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2018
We always start with CONGRATULATIONS: And this season they go first to Detroit Community, Detroit Public Safety Academy and Dexter, which made the MHSAA Football Playoffs for the first time. Of 611 football varsities across the state, all but 12 have made the playoffs at least once. Rockford missed out on an automatic bid with a Week 9 loss, but received an additional qualifier berth to set the record by making the MHSAA Playoffs for the 24th straight season. Crystal Falls Forest Park (22 seasons), Stevensville Lakeshore (21), Macomb Dakota (18), Climax-Scotts (16) and Grand Rapids West Catholic (16) also extended their stays on the list for longest MHSAA playoff streaks.
Break the tie: We again had to break a tie (actually two for District rounds) as teams that will or could meet ended up with the same playoff point averages. Ties are broken by head-to-head competition first – if the teams played each other during the regular season – followed by opponents’ winning percentage as the second criteria and then a coin flip if those two won’t do it. Our tie-breaks this season both took place in Division 4 – Grand Rapids South Christian received a home game against Wyoming Godwin Heights this week and St. Clair will host North Branch if they meet in a District Final. There are more possible meetings of teams with same averages in later rounds, and those ties will be broken the same way.
What is up with Division 6: Last year I had a “worst map ever,” and two of them this year would be in contention. Division 6 is the first – but the explanation for how we came up with what we did is simple. Region 1 is made up of two Districts with six schools from the northern Lower Peninsula and two from the Upper Peninsula. So however the Districts were sliced, two Lower Peninsula schools had to go with the U.P. And we settled this one strictly by comparing highway mileages of those Lower Peninsula teams to Mackinac Bridge (again, the only way to travel between the peninsulas). In the end, we placed Elk Rapids (93 miles) and Traverse City St. Francis (124) with Escanaba and Ishpeming Westwood because they are closest to the Bridge – followed by Kingsley (126), Maple City Glen Lake (144), Beaverton (161) and Tawas (168). The optics are strange – it may look like Glen Lake is driving past Elk Rapids and St. Francis on the way to Beaverton this week and potentially Tawas next. But Glen Lake’s route still travels south of those two schools this week (and depending on its chosen route on the way to Tawas as well), making everything fit – strangely looking, but nonetheless.
Lake Huron tour: You could see most of the American side by checking out this week’s Region 2 games in 8-player Division 2. This map also looks odd – there’s a bridge crossing and a drive around Saginaw Bay. Yet, after drawing this at least two more ways, we settled here – although Region 2 looks a little odd, all four teams are east of I-75 and north of Bay City.
Get your zoom on: We don’t enjoy splitting up teams that live next door to each other, but sometimes it’s a must. In Division 7 we were able to keep all eight Detroit-area and southeastern schools in Region 4, but the distance between its Districts came down to a few miles along I-96. In Division 2, we had to factor in outliers Port Huron Northern and Temperance Bedford – and the resulting Districts ended up splitting Livonia Churchill and Livonia Franklin.
At the end of the day …
I include this every year, but we draw the maps not knowing which schools are represented by the dots. At one point Sunday morning, I was wrong about which division we were considering at the time – and that’s a good thing. For the map drawing portion, it doesn’t matter.
But now that we know who is going where, here’s a glance at some stories that might emerge this week:
• We’ve got rivalries, like Portage Northern at Portage Central and Birmingham Groves at Birmingham Seaholm in Division 2, St. Johns at DeWitt and Haslett at East Lansing in Division 3, Constantine at Schoolcraft in Division 6 and Waterford Our Lady at Clarkston Everest Collegiate in Division 8 – plus Kingston at Deckerville in 8-player Division 1. There are many more we could mention – and some potential feuds renewed in two weeks as well depending on who wins this round.
• The Macomb Area Red, generally considered one of the strongest leagues annually in the state, sent four of six teams to the Division 1 playoffs – and they’re all in the same District. Champion Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (9-0) takes on Utica Eisenhower this week, and with a win would face either Macomb Dakota or Romeo after defeating both by just seven points during the regular season.
• Perhaps the most intriguing opener statewide is River Rouge (8-1) at Detroit Martin Luther King (7-2) in Division 3. Neither gets tested much during their league seasons, but both played tough nonleague opponents and the winner will be considered a favorite to make it to Ford Field.
• Farmington Hills Harrison holds the records for most MHSAA Finals appearances (18) and titles (13) and will play its final playoffs in Division 4 after finishing Division 3 runner-up a year ago. The school is closing next spring. Coach John Herrington is the winningest in state history with 441 wins and counting against only 111 losses (and a tie).
• There are a few annual powers not in the bracket this season – most notably Lowell, Muskegon Catholic Central and Menominee – and others like Rockford, Mendon and Grand Rapids West Catholic got in as additional qualifiers. West Catholic has won five straight Division 5 championships and opens at Hudsonville Unity Christian. The Falcons won the 2013 title after also entering as a 5-4 team.
• There are 34 teams entering the playoffs unbeaten, but only four Districts have multiple – Manistee and Reed City share one in Division 5, Traverse City St. Francis and Calumet in Division 6, Reading and Ottawa Lake Whiteford in Division 8, and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian and Morrice in 8-player Division 1. All of those potential matchups would happen in 11-Player District or 8-Player Regional Finals.
• This will be the eighth year of the 8-player tournament, and in Division 1 only Deckerville in 2012 has won an MHSAA championship in this format. In Division 2, reigning champion Crystal Falls Forest Park opens with 2015-16 back-to-back champion Powers North Central.
• In 8-player, three teams with 5-4 records didn’t make the field of 32, and two teams with 4-5 records advanced. This is the reality of measuring by playoff point average. Fife Lake Forest Area and Webberville are the 4-5 teams, and their opponents this season won more than 61 percent of their games. The three teams at 5-4 and one at 4-4 had opponents’ winning percentages between 38-56 percent.
Every school and every community can tell a story of making these playoffs, and over the next five weeks the fortunate will continue to write chapters filled with moments that will never be forgotten. We’re looking forward to watching them all unfold.
PHOTOS: (Top) The Division 6 map shows an odd-looking scenario with two Traverse City-area teams in the same District as two from the Upper Peninsula. (Middle) The 8-player Division 2 map shows how schools are connected to a District along the Lake Huron shoreline.
1st & Goal: 2024 Week 5 Review
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
September 30, 2024
We have our first league champions of the 2024 Michigan high school football season. And we have several more who could join them soon.
We highlight many of both below in our discussion of Week 5 and as we moved past the midway point of the regular season. That being the case, you’ll also notice several references to playoff-point average and positioning, a growing theme of note as we continue into the final four weeks before this year’s brackets are selected Oct. 27.
Bay & Thumb
HEADLINER Port Huron Northern 30, Port Huron 23 After an 0-2 start this season, Northern has won all three of its league games and can clinch a share of the Macomb Area Conference Blue title against Fraser this week. Lincoln Watkins scored the go-ahead points with 3:26 to play, and Mailk Thompson had two interceptions over the final 2:54 as Northern avenged last season’s 34-0 loss to the Red Hawks (3-2). Click for from the Port Huron Times Herald.
Watch list Saginaw Heritage 10, Lapeer 7 Despite an 0-2 start in Saginaw Valley League Red play, Heritage (3-2) isn’t going away. The Hawks will need major some help to climb back into the league title race, but handing Lapeer (4-1) its first loss was the right start.
On the move Almont 28, Croswell-Lexington 14 This along with Armada’s big win over Yale set up an Almont/Armada matchup this week for first place in the Blue Water Area Conference. Almont (5-0) is the reigning champ and Cros-Lex (3-2) was the runner-up last year. Chesaning 17, Birch Run 9 Chesaning is 5-0 for the first time since its Division 4 championship season of 2001 and will see the other top three teams in the Mid-Michigan Activities Conference over the next three weeks after sending Birch Run to 2-3. Grand Blanc 35, Lansing Everett 21 The Bobcats (4-1) continued an impressive surge by handing Everett (4-1) its first loss. Grand Blanc has jumped from No. 21 to No. 10 in Division 1 playoff-point average over the last two weeks.
Greater Detroit
HEADLINER Detroit Catholic Central 31, Warren De La Salle Collegiate 14 Sunday’s Boys Bowl victory put Detroit Catholic Central (5-0) within one more win of clinching a share of the Catholic High School League Central title. DCC jumped out to a 21-0 first-half lead, and Samson Gash scored three times as the Shamrocks ended a three-game losing streak against the Pilots (3-2). Click for more from the Oakland Press.
Watch list Lake Orion 28, Rochester Adams 25 Lake Orion (4-1) impressed with a season-opening win over Northville, lost a tough one to much-improved Oxford in Week 4, but bounced back to stop a charging Adams team (4-1). The Oakland Activities Association Red race remains wide open as the Dragons seek to repeat.
On the move Riverview 52, Flat Rock 45 Riverview (5-0) will face Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central this week for first in the Huron League after downing another former co-leader Flat Rock (4-1) with a go-ahead touchdown during the final seconds. Warren Fitzgerald 18, Madison Heights Lamphere 7 Fitzgerald started this season 0-2 but can clinch a share of the MAC Gold title this week after handing a first loss to Lamphere (4-1), which entered the game atop the statewide Division 4 playoff-point average list. Birmingham Groves 28, Harper Woods 12 Groves (5-0) clinched a share of the Oakland Activities Association White title after finishing second a year ago, when league opponents Harper Woods and Southfield Arts & Technology both went on to win MHSAA Finals championships.
Mid-Michigan
HEADLINER DeWitt 42, East Lansing 35 Although this was only their second league game, the high-scoring Panthers (5-0) put themselves in position to take back the Capital Area Activities Conference Blue title for the first time since 2021 and also moved into the top spot for statewide Division 3 playoff-point average. Trav Moore scored three times, and the Panthers made a last-minute defensive stand as DeWitt defeated reigning league champ East Lansing (3-2) in the teams’ third-straight meeting decided by seven points or fewer. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.
Watch list Leslie 45, Manchester 28 It’s still early in the Cascades Conference East schedule as well, but Leslie stands alone on top after handing Manchester (4-1) its first defeat. The Blackhawks finished 4-5 and fifth in the league a year ago.
On the move Portland 35, Lansing Catholic 14 The two-time reigning champ Raiders (5-0) extended their CAAC White winning streak to 17 as they moved into first place alone thanks to a third-straight victory over the Cougars (3-2). Howell 27, Northville 12 The Highlanders (5-0) already have outdone their finishes from the last two seasons and are tied for first in the Kensington Lakes Activities Association West after this win over reigning champion Northville (2-3). Ovid-Elsie 42, Montrose 7 The Marauders (5-0) kept pace with Chesaning in the MMAC and put Montrose a game back in avenging last year’s 29-22 loss to the Rams (3-2).
Northern Lower Peninsula
HEADLINER Traverse City St. Francis 49, Kingsley 20 As stated in Friday’s preview, the winner of this showdown would emerge as the likely favorite in the Northern Michigan Football League Legends, and St. Francis (4-1) can now clinch a share of the title this week at Cheboygan. The Gladiators broke away after taking a 22-14 lead into halftime to avenge a 44-21 loss to the Stags (3-2) from last season. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.
Watch list Ogemaw Heights 41, Clare 34 In its first season in the Jack Pine Conference, Ogemaw Heights (5-0) edged an annual favorite to pull within a win of clinching a share of the JPC Division 1 title. Ogemaw moved past Clare (4-1) with the go-ahead score with 1:08 to play.
On the move Maple City Glen Lake 7, East Jordan 6 Glen Lake (4-1) can clinch a share of the NMFL Legacy title this week after handing East Jordan (3-2) its second one-score loss in as many weeks. Traverse City Central 21, Midland Dow 7 Central (2-3) pulled Dow (2-3) out of the shared lead in the SVL Blue and also moved up substantially in Division 2 playoff-point average after three straight losses to start this month. Charlevoix 34, Benzie Central 14 Charlevoix (3-2) is one win from clinching the NMFL Leaders championship for the second-straight season after defeating last year’s league runner-up Benzie (2-3).
Southeast & Border
HEADLINER Petersburg Summerfield 20, Ottawa Lake Whiteford 14 The final Tri-County Conference championship in football may be headed to Summerfield (4-1), which can clinch a share of its eighth championship in this league either this week (if Whiteford defeats Erie Mason) or next (with a win over Erie Mason) after its first win over Whiteford (2-3) since their 2020 District Final. The Bulldogs scored the only touchdown of the second half and made an impressive defensive stand, especially considering Whiteford had scored at least 42 points every meeting during a four-game winning streak in the rivalry. Click for more from the Monroe News.
Summerfield 🏈 spoiled Whiteford's Homecoming festivities by posting a 20-14 triumph. pic.twitter.com/BQWtQrwLsD
— BCSN (@BCSNsports) September 29, 2024
Watch list Ypsilanti Community 27, Jackson 20 Ypsilanti Community (2-3) tied its win total from last season and moved into the No. 32 spot on the Division 3 playoff-point average list with its first win over Jackson since the Vikings (4-1) joined the Southeastern Conference in 2018. The Grizzlies also have losses by only five and one point as they seek their first winning season since 2014.
On the move Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 32, Milan 0 As noted above, SMCC (5-0) will face Riverview this week for first in the Huron League, and coming off its third-straight shutout. Hudson 44, Blissfield 6 After opening this season with a loss, Hudson (4-1) continues to roll and sits tied for Clinton atop the Lenawee County Athletic Association. Napoleon 30, Grass Lake 26 The reigning champion in the Cascades Conference East, Napoleon (3-2) bounced back from a Week 4 loss and could make the standings messy this week against leader Leslie and with Grass Lake (3-2) also in the mix still as well.
Southwest Corridor
HEADLINER Parchment 32, South Haven 0 With its third shutout of the season, Parchment (4-1) advanced its best start since 2017 and avenged last year’s 52-20 loss to South Haven (2-3). The Panthers amassed nearly 500 yards of offense and are one of three teams tied for first early in the Southwestern Athletic Conference Lakeshore. Click for more from the Kalamazoo Gazette.
Watch list Kalamazoo Loy Norrix 6, Battle Creek Central 0 The Knights (3-2) already have guaranteed their best finish since 2012 and after winning a combined three games over the last four seasons. They returned to the Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference this fall after four seasons as an independent.
On the move Portage Central 7, Mattawan 0 Portage Central (3-2) remains one of three teams without a league loss early in the SMAC East, despite a significant push from the Wildcats (2-3). Union City 35, Sand Creek 14 Union City (5-0) joins Bronson and Springport atop the Big 8 Conference standings and plays them back-to-back, respectively, over the next two weeks. Dowagiac 63, Benton Harbor 6 After a few rough seasons to start this decade, Dowagiac is 4-1 for the second season in a row – and seeking to improve on last fall’s 5-4 finish.
Upper Peninsula
HEADLINER Escanaba 62, Grayling 21 With its highest-scoring game since 2009, Escanaba (3-2) guaranteed its best finish since 2019 after winning two games apiece the last two seasons. All three Escanaba victories this fall have avenged losses from a year ago; Grayling won last season’s meeting 37-30. Click for more from the Escanaba Daily Press.
Watch list West Iron County 24, Gwinn 16 (2 OT) West Iron had a rough go over the last three seasons, winning just one game total. But in avenging two losses to Gwinn (2-3) from a year ago, the Wykons (2-3) have guaranteed their best finish since 2020.
On the move Iron Mountain 63, L’Anse 8 The Mountaineers (5-0) clinched a share of the Western Peninsula Activities Conference Iron championship and ran their regular-season winning streak to 22. Ishpeming Westwood 42, Gladstone 15 The Patriots (2-3) have doubled their win total from a year ago in avenging last year’s 49-8 loss to Gladstone. Kingsford 14, Calumet 0 The Flivvers (5-0) posted their third shutout in five games but also ran into a strong defensive effort from the Copper Kings (2-3), who held Kingsford to a season low.
West Michigan
HEADLINER Hudsonville Unity Christian 20, Zeeland West 8 These two entered the weekend among 28 undefeated teams statewide, and Unity (5-0) finished the weekend leading an Ottawa-Kent Conference Gold that also includes among six teams three at 4-1 and a fourth at 3-2. Unity scored a season low, but also joined Mona Shores as the only teams to keep the Dux (4-1) to single digits over the last five seasons. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.
Watch list Jenison 15, Rockford 14 If the season ended today, Jenison (2-3) would be in the playoffs for the first time since 2018 (not counting 2020, when nearly every team qualified because of COVID-19). This will be an unforgettable win from coach Josh Lucas’ first season as it broke a 12-game losing streak to the Rams (3-2) that began in 2006.
On the move Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central 34, Grand Rapids South Christian 13 South Christian (4-1) also entered the weekend among the undefeated, but reigning Division 3 champion FHC (4-1) did its part to also shake up the O-K Gold standings. Muskegon Mona Shores 42, Muskegon 27 The Sailors (5-0) ended a five-game losing streak against the Big Reds (1-3) that included regular-season and playoff defeats in 2023. Lowell 28, Cedar Springs 14 The Red Arrows (3-2) were another team to hand out a first loss this week, to the Red Hawks (4-1), and did so for the second consecutive week after delivering Marquette its first defeat as well in Week 4.
8-Player
HEADLINER Burr Oak 60, Waldron 34 After last scoring 60 pints in 2020, Burr Oak (4-1) did so for the third time this fall in handing Waldron (4-1) its first loss. The last time Burr Oak had defeated the Spartans also was in 2020. And keep an eye on this storyline: The Bobcats’ next two opponents are both 1-4, and two more wins would guarantee Burr Oak its best finish since 1974, according to Michigan-Football.com. Click for more from the Sturgis Journal.
Watch list Morrice 22, Fulton 0 The Orioles (4-1) bounced back from their first loss with their second shutout of the season, handing a first defeat to the Pirates (4-1) – who were averaging nearly 58 points per game.
On the move Brown City 26, Kingston 16 Brown City supporters may have just become Kingston’s biggest fans outside the Cardinals’ hometown as this Green Devils (4-1) win kept them in the Big Thumb Conference Blue race – as long as Kingston (4-1) can defeat league leader Deckerville in two weeks. Gobles 38, Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian 8 Gobles (5-0) handed NorthPointe its first in-state loss this season in avenging last year’s defeat by the Mustangs (3-2). Indian River Inland Lakes 30, Ishpeming 22 Inland Lakes (5-0) held on for its closest regular-season victory this fall. Ishpeming (3-2), meanwhile, faced an undefeated opponent for the third-straight week. Britton Deerfield 48, Adrian Lenawee Christian 26 Britton Deerfield (4-1) clinched a share of the Southern Central Athletic Association White championship with its first win over Lenawee Christian since 2014.
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PHOTOS (Top) Detroit Catholic Central’s Samson Gash reaches the end zone during his team’s win over Warren De La Salle Collegiate. (2) DeWitt’s Jadon Bender (11) cuts back between East Lansing defenders. (3) Negaunee's Brady Mager (4) takes on Hancock's Ethan Anderson (45) during the Miners’ 48-20 win. (4) Perry defenders pursue a Bath ball carrier during the Bees’ 40-0 victory. (Top photo by Adam Sheehan. DeWitt/East Lansing photo by Terry Lyons. Negaunee/Hancock photo by Cara Kamps. Perry/Bath photo by John Johnson.)