Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '18
October 21, 2018
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
For a fading moment, we thought we saw the Big Dipper floating through the second floor of the MHSAA office Sunday morning.
Michigan’s northernmost high school in Calumet held the handle – but the only place the rest of the Region pointed was to questions about how we could come up with such a disjointed scenario for this season’s Division 6 Playoffs.
Below – as has become an annual tradition – we’ll answer that question and a few more about this year’s selection process.
Our mission Sunday was to map 213 automatic qualifiers for 11-player football – and a record 43 additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 records – plus our top 32 8-player teams across 10 divisions of playoffs that will conclude with the latter Nov. 17 at Northern Michigan University and 11-player Nov. 23-24 at Ford Field.
As often noted in the past, this process didn’t start Sunday morning – but months and in some cases more than a year ago when athletic directors began scheduling games for this fall. We make sure all are loaded into our system by early summer, and then follow every score/cancellation/forfeit/additional change through Week 9’s final games – including this season those for 46 teams from other states or Ontario that played Michigan schools and needed to be followed as well because their successes affected MHSAA teams’ strengths of schedule.
Now that the maps are drawn, we line up all that will come with the next five weeks of games including assigning officials, gathering potential Semifinal sites and continuing our work with our Finals hosts to create memorable experiences as teams play for championships.
So we’re off. For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2018.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions plus a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. Go to this page on MHSAA.com to see the pairings in full.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, and in 2017 a second division of 8-player football was introduced.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent 11-player playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors and coaches). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
As noted above, this season there were 213 automatic qualifiers for the 11-player field by win total with the final 43 additional qualifiers then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only five Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so with those five we added 13 teams from Class A and B and 12 from Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by red dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The 8-player process is different for team selection and similar for designation of Regionals. We take the top 32 teams in 8-player based on playoff point average as our field, then re-sort those 32 by enrollment – the 16 biggest make up Division 1, followed by the next 16 in Division 2. There are no automatic qualifiers by record for 8-player.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 (or in 8-player, 16) dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2018
We always start with CONGRATULATIONS: And this season they go first to Detroit Community, Detroit Public Safety Academy and Dexter, which made the MHSAA Football Playoffs for the first time. Of 611 football varsities across the state, all but 12 have made the playoffs at least once. Rockford missed out on an automatic bid with a Week 9 loss, but received an additional qualifier berth to set the record by making the MHSAA Playoffs for the 24th straight season. Crystal Falls Forest Park (22 seasons), Stevensville Lakeshore (21), Macomb Dakota (18), Climax-Scotts (16) and Grand Rapids West Catholic (16) also extended their stays on the list for longest MHSAA playoff streaks.
Break the tie: We again had to break a tie (actually two for District rounds) as teams that will or could meet ended up with the same playoff point averages. Ties are broken by head-to-head competition first – if the teams played each other during the regular season – followed by opponents’ winning percentage as the second criteria and then a coin flip if those two won’t do it. Our tie-breaks this season both took place in Division 4 – Grand Rapids South Christian received a home game against Wyoming Godwin Heights this week and St. Clair will host North Branch if they meet in a District Final. There are more possible meetings of teams with same averages in later rounds, and those ties will be broken the same way.
What is up with Division 6: Last year I had a “worst map ever,” and two of them this year would be in contention. Division 6 is the first – but the explanation for how we came up with what we did is simple. Region 1 is made up of two Districts with six schools from the northern Lower Peninsula and two from the Upper Peninsula. So however the Districts were sliced, two Lower Peninsula schools had to go with the U.P. And we settled this one strictly by comparing highway mileages of those Lower Peninsula teams to Mackinac Bridge (again, the only way to travel between the peninsulas). In the end, we placed Elk Rapids (93 miles) and Traverse City St. Francis (124) with Escanaba and Ishpeming Westwood because they are closest to the Bridge – followed by Kingsley (126), Maple City Glen Lake (144), Beaverton (161) and Tawas (168). The optics are strange – it may look like Glen Lake is driving past Elk Rapids and St. Francis on the way to Beaverton this week and potentially Tawas next. But Glen Lake’s route still travels south of those two schools this week (and depending on its chosen route on the way to Tawas as well), making everything fit – strangely looking, but nonetheless.
Lake Huron tour: You could see most of the American side by checking out this week’s Region 2 games in 8-player Division 2. This map also looks odd – there’s a bridge crossing and a drive around Saginaw Bay. Yet, after drawing this at least two more ways, we settled here – although Region 2 looks a little odd, all four teams are east of I-75 and north of Bay City.
Get your zoom on: We don’t enjoy splitting up teams that live next door to each other, but sometimes it’s a must. In Division 7 we were able to keep all eight Detroit-area and southeastern schools in Region 4, but the distance between its Districts came down to a few miles along I-96. In Division 2, we had to factor in outliers Port Huron Northern and Temperance Bedford – and the resulting Districts ended up splitting Livonia Churchill and Livonia Franklin.
At the end of the day …
I include this every year, but we draw the maps not knowing which schools are represented by the dots. At one point Sunday morning, I was wrong about which division we were considering at the time – and that’s a good thing. For the map drawing portion, it doesn’t matter.
But now that we know who is going where, here’s a glance at some stories that might emerge this week:
• We’ve got rivalries, like Portage Northern at Portage Central and Birmingham Groves at Birmingham Seaholm in Division 2, St. Johns at DeWitt and Haslett at East Lansing in Division 3, Constantine at Schoolcraft in Division 6 and Waterford Our Lady at Clarkston Everest Collegiate in Division 8 – plus Kingston at Deckerville in 8-player Division 1. There are many more we could mention – and some potential feuds renewed in two weeks as well depending on who wins this round.
• The Macomb Area Red, generally considered one of the strongest leagues annually in the state, sent four of six teams to the Division 1 playoffs – and they’re all in the same District. Champion Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (9-0) takes on Utica Eisenhower this week, and with a win would face either Macomb Dakota or Romeo after defeating both by just seven points during the regular season.
• Perhaps the most intriguing opener statewide is River Rouge (8-1) at Detroit Martin Luther King (7-2) in Division 3. Neither gets tested much during their league seasons, but both played tough nonleague opponents and the winner will be considered a favorite to make it to Ford Field.
• Farmington Hills Harrison holds the records for most MHSAA Finals appearances (18) and titles (13) and will play its final playoffs in Division 4 after finishing Division 3 runner-up a year ago. The school is closing next spring. Coach John Herrington is the winningest in state history with 441 wins and counting against only 111 losses (and a tie).
• There are a few annual powers not in the bracket this season – most notably Lowell, Muskegon Catholic Central and Menominee – and others like Rockford, Mendon and Grand Rapids West Catholic got in as additional qualifiers. West Catholic has won five straight Division 5 championships and opens at Hudsonville Unity Christian. The Falcons won the 2013 title after also entering as a 5-4 team.
• There are 34 teams entering the playoffs unbeaten, but only four Districts have multiple – Manistee and Reed City share one in Division 5, Traverse City St. Francis and Calumet in Division 6, Reading and Ottawa Lake Whiteford in Division 8, and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian and Morrice in 8-player Division 1. All of those potential matchups would happen in 11-Player District or 8-Player Regional Finals.
• This will be the eighth year of the 8-player tournament, and in Division 1 only Deckerville in 2012 has won an MHSAA championship in this format. In Division 2, reigning champion Crystal Falls Forest Park opens with 2015-16 back-to-back champion Powers North Central.
• In 8-player, three teams with 5-4 records didn’t make the field of 32, and two teams with 4-5 records advanced. This is the reality of measuring by playoff point average. Fife Lake Forest Area and Webberville are the 4-5 teams, and their opponents this season won more than 61 percent of their games. The three teams at 5-4 and one at 4-4 had opponents’ winning percentages between 38-56 percent.
Every school and every community can tell a story of making these playoffs, and over the next five weeks the fortunate will continue to write chapters filled with moments that will never be forgotten. We’re looking forward to watching them all unfold.
PHOTOS: (Top) The Division 6 map shows an odd-looking scenario with two Traverse City-area teams in the same District as two from the Upper Peninsula. (Middle) The 8-player Division 2 map shows how schools are connected to a District along the Lake Huron shoreline.
1st & Goal: 2024 Week 6 Preview
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
October 3, 2024
If Week 5 could be considered something of a bridge week for several football conferences across the state, this one likely will be the eventual decider as championships are wrapped up over the final month of the regular season.
Several matchups, including three pitting undefeated teams detailed below, have the potential to set off league title celebrations that are almost always the primary goal when teams kick off every season.
All games listed below are tonight unless noted, with results posting as they are reported all weekend on the MHSAA Scores page. Updated standings also are available by clicking the schools on the score list, and every division’s playoff points summary updates as well as scores are received.
Bay & Thumb
Almont (5-0) at Armada (5-0) WATCH
Armada has not given up a point in its four Blue Water Area Conference wins, and after opening with a 28-27 victory over a Marine City team that has since averaged 52 points per game. The Tigers will face their toughest offensive challenge since that win over the Mariners, as Almont is averaging nearly 42 points per game – and also giving up just under nine per contest. The last three meetings between these two have been decided by seven points or fewer, with Almont last year’s victor 13-12.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Corunna (5-0) at Goodrich (4-1) WATCH, East Lansing (3-2) at Davison (4-1), Grand Blanc (4-1) at Lapeer (4-1), Marysville (4-1) at Marine City (4-1).
Greater Detroit
Troy (3-2) at Birmingham Seaholm (5-0) WATCH
Seaholm has dominated since moving back into the Oakland Activities Association Blue in 2022, with a combined 22-5 record overall over the last three seasons and eight straight league wins as the Maples pursue a repeat title. They have won three straight over Troy, but the Colts avenged a 2023 loss to Oak Park last week 31-6 and have gotten a few looks at top competition with defeats to powerful Lake Orion and Pontiac Notre Dame Prep.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Clinton Township Clintondale (4-1) at Clawson (3-2) WATCH, Rochester Adams (4-1) at Oxford (3-2) WATCH, Lake Orion (4-1) at West Bloomfield (2-3) WATCH. SATURDAY Warren Michigan Collegiate (4-1) at Detroit Voyageur College Prep (4-1).
Mid-Michigan
Pewamo-Westphalia (5-0) at Fowler (5-0) WATCH
These two began their annual series in 1966, and according to Michigan-Football.com P-W leads it 30-28 – with wins last year (27-14) and eight of the last nine. This could again eventually decide the Central Michigan Athletic Conference title, especially with Fowler already having handed Saranac its lone loss. The Eagles also opened the season by handing Hudson what remains the Tigers’ lone defeat, and P-W opened by dealing North Muskegon what remains its only loss this fall. Neither Fowler nor the Pirates have given up a point since Week 2.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Pinconning (4-1) at Harrison (5-0) WATCH, Napoleon (3-2) at Leslie (5-0) WATCH, Mason (4-1) at St. Johns (5-0) WATCH, Grand Ledge (4-1) at Lansing Everett (4-1) WATCH.
Northern Lower Peninsula
Petoskey (5-0) at Cadillac (3-2) WATCH
The next two weeks will make or break Petoskey’s Big North Conference title hopes, and potentially Cadillac’s as well. The Northmen and Marquette lead the league with 3-0 starts, while Cadillac is 3-1, and Petoskey faces Marquette next week – meaning a Cadillac win in this matchup and a Petoskey win over the Sentinels would open up the possibility of a three-team title share (with Escanaba also involved in this mix). The Northmen have given up just 37 points total this fall and defeated Escanaba in Week 3. Cadillac fell to Midland and then Escanaba to open this season, by seven points apiece, before winning three straight.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Traverse City St. Francis (4-1) at Cheboygan (3-2) WATCH, East Jordan (3-2) at Mancelona (3-2), Midland (4-1) at Traverse City Central (2-3) WATCH. SATURDAY Kingsley (3-2) at Benzie Central (2-3) WATCH.
Southeast & Border
Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central (5-0) at Riverview (5-0) WATCH
For the second straight week, Riverview is playing in a premier matchup – and thanks to last week’s 52-45 win over previously-undefeated Flat Rock. That’s left these two tied for first in the Huron League and with opposing strengths set to face off. Riverview has topped 35 points in all five of its games and 50 the last three weeks, while SMCC hasn’t given up a point since Week 2 and just 22 total this fall. Also of note, the Falcons follow this weekend with a home game against Flat Rock.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Dexter (5-0) at Ann Arbor Pioneer (4-1) WATCH, Adrian Madison (4-1) at Hudson (4-1) WATCH, Toledo St. Francis de Sales, Ohio (5-1) at Jackson Lumen Christi (4-1) WATCH, Battle Creek Harper Creek (4-1) at Parma Western (4-1).
Southwest Corridor
Edwardsburg (4-1) at Paw Paw (5-0) WATCH
The Eddies are bouncing back nicely from last year’s 5-5 finish, and this will be their first opportunity to avenge a 2023 loss – in fact, two – as they fell to Paw Paw 35-0 and then 16-7 in the playoffs last fall. Edwardsburg’s lone loss this season came Week 2, by just seven points, to still-undefeated St. Joseph. Paw Paw’s surge started a year ago and has simply continued, as the Red Wolves opened with solid nonleague wins over Big Rapids and Berrien Springs – and, like Edwardsburg – have yet to be challenged much in three Wolverine Conference games.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Constantine (5-0) at Kalamazoo United (4-1), Portage Northern (4-1) at St. Joseph (5-0) WATCH, Bronson (4-1) at Union City (5-0), Lawton (4-1) at Schoolcraft (4-1) WATCH.
Upper Peninsula
Escanaba (3-2) at Marquette (4-1)
This rivalry is getting a massive boost with Escanaba already guaranteeing its best finish since 2019. Escanaba also will be playing for its first win over Marquette since 2017 and coming off its best back-to-back offensive performances (combining for 107 points) in more than a decade. Marquette has continued to build after finishing 3-6 in 2022 and 5-4 last year, with four shutouts this season and its only stumble in a Saturday game downstate at Lowell.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Gwinn (2-3) at Iron Mountain (5-0) WATCH, Negaunee (4-1) at Ishpeming Westwood (2-3) WATCH, Calumet (2-3) at Houghton (2-3), West Iron County (2-3) at Manistique (2-3) WATCH.
West Michigan
Holland Christian (5-0) at Grand Rapids Catholic Central (4-1)
Holland Christian is another of the best comeback stories in the state so far, with its five wins already the varsity’s most since 2018 and punctuated by last week’s 21-20 triumph over East Grand Rapids. That said, this will clearly be the Maroons’ most massive challenge yet. Grand Rapids Catholic Central’s loss to Pontiac Notre Dame Prep in Week 3 gains context by the week as undefeated NDP rumbles through its schedule.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Rockford (3-2) at Caledonia (4-1), Beal City (4-1) at Evart (4-1) WATCH, Pontiac Notre Dame Prep (5-0) at Reed City (4-1) WATCH, Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central (4-1) at Zeeland West (4-1) WATCH.
8-Player
Bellevue (4-1) at Mendon (5-0) WATCH
While Mendon hasn’t navigated a sub-.500 season since 2006, it’s fair to call this the Hornets’ most powerful start – at least statistically – in some time. The Hornets have absolutely dominated, scoring 54 or more points every game, 60 or more in four, and giving up 34 points total with three shutouts. Their best win likely was 66-14 over Britton Deerfield, which hasn’t lost otherwise. Enter Bellevue, which jumped from 0-9 two years ago to 6-3 last season and sits a three-point loss in Week 2 to Adrian Lenawee Christian from being undefeated as well. The Broncos have given up just 57 points this season and are coming off back-to-back 60-plus scoring performances.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Norway (4-1) at Munising (5-0) WATCH, Grand Rapids Sacred Heart (5-0) at St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic (4-1), Marion (5-0) at Suttons Bay (4-1) WATCH.
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PHOTO Ishpeming's Grady Gauthier holds onto Indian River Inland Lakes' quarterback Aidan Fenstermaker's leg as he gets ready to dive into the end zone during Inland Lake's Week 5 win. (Photo by Cara Kamps.)