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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '18

October 21, 2018

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

For a fading moment, we thought we saw the Big Dipper floating through the second floor of the MHSAA office Sunday morning.

Michigan’s northernmost high school in Calumet held the handle – but the only place the rest of the Region pointed was to questions about how we could come up with such a disjointed scenario for this season’s Division 6 Playoffs.

Below – as has become an annual tradition – we’ll answer that question and a few more about this year’s selection process.

Our mission Sunday was to map 213 automatic qualifiers for 11-player football – and a record 43 additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 records – plus our top 32 8-player teams across 10 divisions of playoffs that will conclude with the latter Nov. 17 at Northern Michigan University and 11-player Nov. 23-24 at Ford Field.

As often noted in the past, this process didn’t start Sunday morning – but months and in some cases more than a year ago when athletic directors began scheduling games for this fall. We make sure all are loaded into our system by early summer, and then follow every score/cancellation/forfeit/additional change through Week 9’s final games – including this season those for 46 teams from other states or Ontario that played Michigan schools and needed to be followed as well because their successes affected MHSAA teams’ strengths of schedule.

Now that the maps are drawn, we line up all that will come with the next five weeks of games including assigning officials, gathering potential Semifinal sites and continuing our work with our Finals hosts to create memorable experiences as teams play for championships.

So we’re off. For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2018.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions plus a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. Go to this page on MHSAA.com to see the pairings in full.

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, and in 2017 a second division of 8-player football was introduced.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent 11-player playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors and coaches). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

As noted above, this season there were 213 automatic qualifiers for the 11-player field by win total with the final 43 additional qualifiers then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only five Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so with those five we added 13 teams from Class A and B and 12 from Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by red dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The 8-player process is different for team selection and similar for designation of Regionals. We take the top 32 teams in 8-player based on playoff point average as our field, then re-sort those 32 by enrollment – the 16 biggest make up Division 1, followed by the next 16 in Division 2. There are no automatic qualifiers by record for 8-player.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 (or in 8-player, 16) dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2018

We always start with CONGRATULATIONS: And this season they go first to Detroit Community, Detroit Public Safety Academy and Dexter, which made the MHSAA Football Playoffs for the first time. Of 611 football varsities across the state, all but 12 have made the playoffs at least once. Rockford missed out on an automatic bid with a Week 9 loss, but received an additional qualifier berth to set the record by making the MHSAA Playoffs for the 24th straight season. Crystal Falls Forest Park (22 seasons), Stevensville Lakeshore (21), Macomb Dakota (18), Climax-Scotts (16) and Grand Rapids West Catholic (16) also extended their stays on the list for longest MHSAA playoff streaks.

Break the tie: We again had to break a tie (actually two for District rounds) as teams that will or could meet ended up with the same playoff point averages. Ties are broken by head-to-head competition first – if the teams played each other during the regular season – followed by opponents’ winning percentage as the second criteria and then a coin flip if those two won’t do it. Our tie-breaks this season both took place in Division 4 – Grand Rapids South Christian received a home game against Wyoming Godwin Heights this week and St. Clair will host North Branch if they meet in a District Final. There are more possible meetings of teams with same averages in later rounds, and those ties will be broken the same way.

What is up with Division 6: Last year I had a “worst map ever,” and two of them this year would be in contention. Division 6 is the first – but the explanation for how we came up with what we did is simple. Region 1 is made up of two Districts with six schools from the northern Lower Peninsula and two from the Upper Peninsula. So however the Districts were sliced, two Lower Peninsula schools had to go with the U.P. And we settled this one strictly by comparing highway mileages of those Lower Peninsula teams to Mackinac Bridge (again, the only way to travel between the peninsulas). In the end, we placed Elk Rapids (93 miles) and Traverse City St. Francis (124) with Escanaba and Ishpeming Westwood because they are closest to the Bridge – followed by Kingsley (126), Maple City Glen Lake (144), Beaverton (161) and Tawas (168). The optics are strange – it may look like Glen Lake is driving past Elk Rapids and St. Francis on the way to Beaverton this week and potentially Tawas next. But Glen Lake’s route still travels south of those two schools this week (and depending on its chosen route on the way to Tawas as well), making everything fit – strangely looking, but nonetheless.

Lake Huron tour: You could see most of the American side by checking out this week’s Region 2 games in 8-player Division 2. This map also looks odd – there’s a bridge crossing and a drive around Saginaw Bay. Yet, after drawing this at least two more ways, we settled here – although Region 2 looks a little odd, all four teams are east of I-75 and north of Bay City.

Get your zoom on: We don’t enjoy splitting up teams that live next door to each other, but sometimes it’s a must. In Division 7 we were able to keep all eight Detroit-area and southeastern schools in Region 4, but the distance between its Districts came down to a few miles along I-96. In Division 2, we had to factor in outliers Port Huron Northern and Temperance Bedford – and the resulting Districts ended up splitting Livonia Churchill and Livonia Franklin.

At the end of the day …

I include this every year, but we draw the maps not knowing which schools are represented by the dots. At one point Sunday morning, I was wrong about which division we were considering at the time – and that’s a good thing. For the map drawing portion, it doesn’t matter.

But now that we know who is going where, here’s a glance at some stories that might emerge this week:

• We’ve got rivalries, like Portage Northern at Portage Central and Birmingham Groves at Birmingham Seaholm in Division 2, St. Johns at DeWitt and Haslett at East Lansing in Division 3, Constantine at Schoolcraft in Division 6 and Waterford Our Lady at Clarkston Everest Collegiate in Division 8 – plus Kingston at Deckerville in 8-player Division 1. There are many more we could mention – and some potential feuds renewed in two weeks as well depending on who wins this round.

• The Macomb Area Red, generally considered one of the strongest leagues annually in the state, sent four of six teams to the Division 1 playoffs – and they’re all in the same District. Champion Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (9-0) takes on Utica Eisenhower this week, and with a win would face either Macomb Dakota or Romeo after defeating both by just seven points during the regular season.

• Perhaps the most intriguing opener statewide is River Rouge (8-1) at Detroit Martin Luther King (7-2) in Division 3. Neither gets tested much during their league seasons, but both played tough nonleague opponents and the winner will be considered a favorite to make it to Ford Field.

• Farmington Hills Harrison holds the records for most MHSAA Finals appearances (18) and titles (13) and will play its final playoffs in Division 4 after finishing Division 3 runner-up a year ago. The school is closing next spring. Coach John Herrington is the winningest in state history with 441 wins and counting against only 111 losses (and a tie).

• There are a few annual powers not in the bracket this season – most notably Lowell, Muskegon Catholic Central and Menominee – and others like Rockford, Mendon and Grand Rapids West Catholic got in as additional qualifiers. West Catholic has won five straight Division 5 championships and opens at Hudsonville Unity Christian. The Falcons won the 2013 title after also entering as a 5-4 team.

• There are 34 teams entering the playoffs unbeaten, but only four Districts have multiple – Manistee and Reed City share one in Division 5, Traverse City St. Francis and Calumet in Division 6, Reading and Ottawa Lake Whiteford in Division 8, and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian and Morrice in 8-player Division 1. All of those potential matchups would happen in 11-Player District or 8-Player Regional Finals.

• This will be the eighth year of the 8-player tournament, and in Division 1 only Deckerville in 2012 has won an MHSAA championship in this format. In Division 2, reigning champion Crystal Falls Forest Park opens with 2015-16 back-to-back champion Powers North Central.

• In 8-player, three teams with 5-4 records didn’t make the field of 32, and two teams with 4-5 records advanced. This is the reality of measuring by playoff point average. Fife Lake Forest Area and Webberville are the 4-5 teams, and their opponents this season won more than 61 percent of their games. The three teams at 5-4 and one at 4-4 had opponents’ winning percentages between 38-56 percent.

Every school and every community can tell a story of making these playoffs, and over the next five weeks the fortunate will continue to write chapters filled with moments that will never be forgotten. We’re looking forward to watching them all unfold.

PHOTOS: (Top) The Division 6 map shows an odd-looking scenario with two Traverse City-area teams in the same District as two from the Upper Peninsula. (Middle) The 8-player Division 2 map shows how schools are connected to a District along the Lake Huron shoreline.

Fowler's Jacob Halfmann pulls away from a Pewamo-Westphalia defender Friday.

1st & Goal: 2024 Week 6 Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

October 7, 2024

We don’t track margin of victory week to week during the Michigan high school football season. So only anecdotally we will say that Week 6 felt like it was filled with several more close games than usual across the state.

MI Student AidTotal, 57 games were decided by eight points or fewer – in essence, a touchdown and 2-point conversion, or less – and those 57 games including 113 Michigan teams (with River Rouge playing an Ohio opponent).

In other words, 19 percent of our varsity teams were part of games decided by such a slim margin – including many of the results of intriguing matchups we highlight below.

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Almont 29, Armada 28 Almont’s last-minute go-ahead score may end up deciding the Blue Water Area Conference championship as the Raiders (6-0) held on to win this matchup of undefeated teams. They can clinch a share of the title this week against Richmond, while Armada (5-1) fell into a second-place tie with North Branch – but with some hope as North Branch plays Almont in Week 8. Click for more from the Port Huron Times Herald.

Watch list Marysville 39, Marine City 20 Marysville (5-1) rebounded from a 35-0 opening-night loss to Almont to win five straight and clinch a share of the Macomb Area Conference Silver title – with an opportunity to win it outright this week against second-place St. Clair.

On the move Davison 35, East Lansing 10 Davison (5-1) built a strong nonleague schedule again for this season, and this final nonconference win bumped the Cardinals up to No. 9 in Division 1 playoff-point average while keeping East Lansing (3-3) still firmly in the Division 2 mix. Grand Blanc 35, Lapeer 21 The undefeated atop the Saginaw Valley League Red standings are down to Grand Blanc (5-1) and Davison, with Lapeer (4-2) holding on to a sliver of title share hope after taking its second league loss. Fenton 24, Linden 21 Fenton (6-0) took a field goal lead during the first quarter and continued to maintain that advantage to the end to clinch a share of the Flint Metro League Stripes title and send Linden to 3-3 – but with some title share hope as Fenton faces the other second-place team, Flushing, this week.

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Trenton 28, Gibraltar Carlson 14 Trenton (4-2) has strung together a nice comeback over the last month, with this win the necessary first step toward a possible – and what not long ago probably seemed improbable – opportunity to claim a share of the Downriver League title. The Trojans started this fall 0-2 with both losses in the league, but handed Carlson (5-1) its first. This week Trenton faces Downriver leader Allen Park – and with Allen Park and Carlson still to play as well. Click for more from the Southgate News-Herald.

Watch list Clawson 27, Clinton Township Clintondale 14 Reigning MAC Bronze champion Clawson (4-2) broke this season’s league standings open again, denying Clintondale (4-2) the opportunity to clinch a share of the title and setting up the possibility of three winners this season with Hazel Park also tied for first, one league game left for all three, and none of those three playing each other.

On the move Detroit Lincoln-King 50, Mount Clemens 0 Lincoln-King (6-0) posted its third straight shutout on the field (with a forfeit win during that run as well) and can clinch the Charter School Conference Silver title this week after sending Mount Clemens (4-2) into a tie for third place. Clinton Township Chippewa Valley 34, Utica Eisenhower 31 (2 OT) All of a sudden the Big Reds (2-4) are only five spots out of making the Division 1 playoff field after stunning Eisenhower (5-1), which can still claim a share of the MAC Red title by defeating first-place Macomb Dakota this week. Oxford 18, Rochester Adams 17 After opening Oakland Activities Association Red play with an eight-point loss to Clarkston, Oxford has pushed back into a tie for first with a chance to clinch a share of the title this week against West Bloomfield. Oddly enough, Adams – with two league losses by a combined four points – could be part of a five-team title share if all five in the division finish 2-2 in league play.

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER Fowler 14, Pewamo-Westphalia 11 Fowler (6-0) pulled into first place in the Central Michigan Athletic Conference and nearly pulled even with P-W (5-1) in their longstanding series. This was the Eagles’ second win in their last 10 meetings with the Pirates, but pulled Fowler to within one of tying P-W for wins in the 59-year rivalry. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

Watch list Leslie 36, Napoleon 28 With this win over reigning Cascades Conference East champion Napoleon (3-3), Leslie pulled within one more of clinching a share of this year’s title and with winless East Jackson up next. The Blackhawks (6-0) also have their most victories in a season since 2012, the last time they finished with a winning record.

On the move Ionia 21, Lansing Sexton 20 After this second-straight one-point win, Ionia (4-2) has avenged three of its losses from a year ago and needs two more victories to guarantee its best finish since 2013. Lansing Everett 35, Grand Ledge 12 Everett (5-1) bounced back from its loss to Grand Blanc with its first win over Grand Ledge (4-2) since 2019 – and with one more victory, would have its best finish since 2014. Mason 40, St. Johns 10 Mason (5-1) clinched a share of a sixth-straight Capital Area Activities Conference Red title by winning this matchup of league leaders, and also delivered St. Johns (5-1) its lone loss during what has been the Redwings’ best season since 2019.

Chesaning's Brayden Florian (11) finds a seam during his team's 50-0 win over Montrose.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Petoskey 42, Cadillac 18 The Northmen played themselves into a championship matchup in the Big North Conference this week, as they’ll face co-leader Marquette with two leagues games remaining for both. Petoskey also is 6-0 for the first time since 2011, tied last season’s win total with this one, and remains seventh in Division 3 playoff-point average while Cadillac (3-3) fell only one spot to No. 29. Click for more from the Petoskey News-Review.

Watch list Boyne City 21, Grayling 18 Boyne City (4-2) kept its destiny in its own hands, and it will face first-place Traverse City St. Francis in Week 9 with a chance to earn a share of the Northern Michigan Football League Legends championship.

On the move East Jordan 43, Mancelona 28 The Red Devils (4-2) bounced back from two-straight one-score losses to solidly reassert themselves in the middle of the potential Division 8 playoff field, with Mancelona (3-3) remaining in that mix as well. Traverse City St. Francis 55, Cheboygan 6 The Gladiators (5-1) won their third straight to clinch a share of the NMFL Legends title and send Cheboygan to 3-3. Charlevoix 28, Elk Rapids 0 The Rayders (4-2) are league champions as well with this clinching a share in the NMFL Leaders.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 34, Riverview 15 Two straight power-packed weeks in the Huron League have left Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central in first place and Riverview and Flat Rock both a game back, with SMCC facing Flat Rock this week with at least a share of the league title on the line. This was billed as Riverview’s powerful offense against the Falcons’ unyielding defense, and the latter won out to give SMCC its first victory over the Pirates since 2019. Click for more from the Monroe News.

Watch list Dexter 42, Ann Arbor Pioneer 6 Dexter (6-0) clinched the Southeastern Conference Red championship, in part by sending Pioneer (4-2) into a tie for second place. The Dreadnaughts can claim the title outright this week at Monroe.

On the move Jackson Lumen Christi 63, Toledo St. Francis de Sales 35 In a winner-take-all for the Catholic High School League AA championship, Lumen Christi (5-1) clinched it and has won all six of its CHSL games since entering the league last fall. Ottawa Lake Whiteford 65, Erie Mason 8 Petersburg Summerfield clinched a share of the Tri-County Conference title by way of this Whiteford win, but the Bobcats (5-1) no doubt will be cheering for Mason next week to defeat Summerfield, which would create a shared title among all three. Chelsea 38, Tecumseh 14 Chelsea has strung together five straight wins after losing its season opener, and this one, combined with Adrian’s 17-14 victory over Jackson, gave the Bulldogs (5-1) the outright SEC White title.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER Kalamazoo United 33, Constantine 21 United’s first win over Constantine since 2018 ended the Falcons’ 23-game winning streak in the Southwestern Athletic Conference Lakeshore and put the Titans (5-1) in position to clinch a share of the league title this week if Constantine (5-1) defeats co-leader Parchment. United faces Parchment in Week 8. Click for more from the Kalamazoo Gazette.

Watch list Schoolcraft 17, Lawton 3 Schoolcraft (5-1) will face Saugatuck this week for a share of the SAC Valley title after sending Lawton (4-2) into third place by ending a five-game losing streak against the Blue Devils. Lawton had defeated the Eagles in both the regular season and playoffs the last two years.

On the move Battle Creek Harper Creek 32, Parma Western 13 Harper Creek (5-1) has played itself into a similar spot as last season – set to face Hastings with major Interstate 8 Athletic Conference implications. But this time, the Beavers have a win over Parma Western out of the way as they avenged last year’s loss to the third-place Panthers. Paw Paw 21, Edwardsburg 7 The Wolverine Conference race is likely to go to the end of the regular season, but this was a major obstacle to overcome as Paw Paw (6-0) moved closer to a Week 9 matchup with current co-leader and reigning champion Niles – which faces Edwardsburg (4-2) this week. Berrien Springs 31, Buchanan 6 Berrien Springs (3-3) won its second straight over the Bucks (3-3) and will face Dowagiac this week for a share of the Lakeland Conference championship.

Negaunee's Hank Tincknell (35) gets read to take on an Ishpeming Westwood defender.Negaunee's Hank Tincknell (35) gets read to take on an Ishpeming Westwood defender.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Marquette 28, Escanaba 7 As Petoskey accomplished against Cadillac (noted above), Marquette (5-1) did its work to set up this weekend’s Big North Conference matchup of coleaders. The seven points scored by Escanaba (3-3) were the first given up by the Sentinels in BNC play – impressive again versus an offense that was averaging 31 per game. Click for more from the Marquette Mining Journal.

Watch list Bark River-Harris 54, L’Anse 0 After opening with losses to Ishpeming Westwood and Iron Mountain, Bark River-Harris (4-2) has won four straight and its last three games by shutout. The 54 points scored were a season high.

On the move Calumet 29, Houghton 0 The Copper Kings (3-3) broke a three-game losing streak and in doing so bumped up from No. 40 in Division 6 playoff-point average to No. 32. Manistique 33, West Iron County 0 The Emeralds will finish off the regular season with a pair of still-undefeated opponents and will get a nice bump from those matchups win or lose, but this one paid off big as well as they jumped six spots to No. 30 in Division 8 playoff-point average. Negaunee 42, Ishpeming Westwood 6 With a Week 4 loss to co-leader Kingsford, but co-leader Menominee coming up this week, Negaunee still has some hope for a share of the title in Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper – and if that doesn’t work out, wins like this one over Westwood (2-4) will continue to boost the Miners in Division 6. They currently rank No. 12 on that playoff-point average list, up two spots from last week.

West Michigan

HEADLINER Grand Rapids Catholic Central 42, Holland Christian 18 The Cougars may have made the Ottawa-Kent Conference Black title pursuit a two-team race by sending Holland Christian out of a tie for first and with co-leader Grand Rapids Northview up next for the Cougars (5-1). Holland Christian (5-1) also will see Northview, in Week 8, as it continues building its guaranteed best season since 2018. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.

Watch list Zeeland East 22, Grand Rapids South Christian 15 The O-K Green is loaded and several other contenders have received a lot of the attention this fall. But the Chix (4-2) are right there as well, with this easily their most impressive win of the fall and a great way to push into the final two league games against Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central and leader Hudsonville Unity Christian. South Christian (4-2) has lost two straight after a strong start.

On the move Zeeland West 28, Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central 7 The Dux (5-1) bounced back after losing to Unity Christian in Week 5 and remain one game back in the Green with two league games to play. Rockford 34, Caledonia 14 Rockford (4-2) bounced back from its first back-to-back losses since 2018 by downing the Fighting Scots (4-2) to move back up to No. 15 in Division 1 playoff-point average. Grandville 33, East Kentwood 25 After opening with three losses, Grandville has three wins and the No. 22 spot in Division 1 playoff-point average thanks to a jump of 10 spots. East Kentwood (3-3) would be part of the field as well if the season ended today.

8-Player

HEADLINER Norway 40, Munising 28 The Great Lakes Eight Conference East has plenty of power with four of six teams .500 or better, and at the top are Norway and Pickford with the Knights (5-1) handing Munising (5-1) the latter’s first loss of the season. Circle Norway vs. Pickford in Week 8 as one of the biggest 8-player regular-season games of this fall. Click for more from the Iron Mountain Daily News.

Watch list Grand Rapids Sacred Heart 28, St. Joseph Our Lake of the Lake Catholic 20 Sacred Heart (6-0) emerged from one of its toughest tests of this program-defining season, the Falcons’ second overall and first playing a full varsity schedule. Our Lady (4-2) is one of five Sacred Heart opponents so far that sits at .500 or better.

On the move Mendon 66, Bellevue 42 Two strong offensive teams not surprisingly combined to score a lot of points, with Owen Gorham totaling 256 yards and six touchdowns rushing for Mendon (6-0) and Seth Keson running for two touchdowns, scoring a third on a kick return and throwing for two more for Bellevue (4-2). Fulton 60, Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart 33 The Pirates (5-1) have finished with winning seasons three of their four in 8-player football, and this has been their best start with this victory avenging a seven-point loss to the Irish (4-2) from a year ago. Marion 48, Suttons Bay 0 Marion (6-0) has won its games by an average of 38 points per, and this first shutout of the season came against one of its most successful opponents so far in the Norsemen (4-2).

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PHOTOS (Top) Fowler's Jacob Halfmann pulls away from a Pewamo-Westphalia defender Friday. (Middle) Chesaning's Brayden Florian (11) finds a seam during his team's 50-0 win over Montrose. (Below) c (Top photo by Jim Pivarnik. Chesaning/Montrose photo by Terry Lyons. Negaunee/Westwood photo by Cara Kamps.)