Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '16

October 24, 2016

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

There was a wheel and something that looked like a magic wand. Another started out looking like the head of a caterpillar.

A number of Michigan football teams realized their sky-high dreams with Sunday’s playoff selection announcement on Fox Sports Detroit. 

But earlier that day, as is the case at the end of each fall, shaping this season’s tournament at times looked a little like finding pictures in the clouds.

Beginning last night and into this morning, MHSAA staff have been busily gathering game days and times for this weekend’s opening round. We’re assigning officials for those contests. Schools are preparing for what likely will be one of their biggest crowds of the season. And, of course, teams are preparing for what surely will be one of their most memorable games.

But before all of that could begin, we met Sunday morning with nine maps of Michigan and 272 dots that needed to be organized to set another playoffs in motion.

As we’ve done the past five seasons, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2016 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions. For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2016.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were 218 automatic qualifiers by win total – only two more than the record low set a year ago – with the final 38 at-large qualifiers then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. For the second consecutive season there were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams from Class A and 11 each from Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2016

First things, first: Congratulations to five first-time playoff qualifiers  Bloomfield Hills, Detroit Delta Prep, Southfield Arts & Technology, Southfield Bradford and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian. Bloomfield Hills (Lahser and Andover) and Southfield Arts & Technology (Southfield and Southfield-Lathrup) were created by mergers of previous schools. Southfield A&T and Detroit Delta Prep are eligible for tournament play this season for the first time. Bradford and Tri-unity Christian both started programs during the latter half of the 2000s; Tri-unity qualified in 8-player after moving back to that format from 11-player this fall. Of 617 varsity football programs that played games this season (including five not eligible for the playoffs as either a first-year program or with an enrollment too high for 8-player), all but 18 have made the playoffs at least once going back to the first series in 1975.

Tie it up: We had a few ties in a few ways this season. In two situations, we had multiple teams with the same enrollment at a line between divisions. In those cases, the teams with the higher playoff point averages go to the larger divisions – so Ferndale went to Division 2 and East Lansing to Division 3 to settle one tie, and Lansing Sexton went to Division 4 and Dowagiac to Division 5 to settle the other. The additional tie came in 8-player football, with Portland St. Patrick and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian both having the same playoff point average, the same opponents’ winning percentage and drawn into the same District. A coin flip was used to determine St. Patrick as the top seed and home team both this week and next if it advances and plays the Defenders.

Local really is the rule: Division 3 provided us with a fine example to help show that we work to draw maps locally and beginning with the earliest rounds. There were at least three ways to separate the schools in Region 3 District 1: East Lansing, DeWitt, Fowlerville and Mason. DeWitt, as the westernmost of the group, could’ve been drawn southwest with R2D2’s Vicksburg, Battle Creek Harper Creek and Coldwater, replacing Chelsea. Doing so would’ve literally split the state’s regions down the middle along U.S. 127, which is a favorable picture. But protocol is to favor local matchups at the earliest rounds, and it just didn’t make sense to take DeWitt away from three schools mere minutes away when subbing it in for Chelsea would’ve created a wash in terms of travel for the other three teams in R2D2.

Sometimes, there’s no choice: But keeping a group of four local teams together often is impossible. Remember, 32 dots usually are spread out at least all over the Lower Peninsula. In Division 4, we had Grand Rapids Catholic Central, Wyoming Godwin Heights, Wyoming Kelloggsville and Grand Rapids South Christian stacked nicely along U.S. 131 – but had to send southernmost South Christian down with Benton Harbor, Three Rivers and Hudsonville Unity Christian because there was no other grouping for Allendale, which is about 20 miles west of Grand Rapids. Another incident of splitting up near-neighbors happened in Division 2; we had Lowell and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central next door to each other, but no other Grand Rapids area teams qualify. By only a few miles, Forest Hills Central is south of Lowell – so although the Rangers had shorter drives than Lowell to possible opponents both north and south, they went into a group with Portage Northern, Portage Central and Battle Creek Lakeview, and Lowell went north to join Greenville, Traverse City West and Traverse City Central.

Why coast to coast: It wasn’t lost on the committee that teams waking up looking at Lake Huron traveling to play on Lake Michigan isn’t the greatest scenario. But it was the best of the options, and we stayed consistent by setting up a possible two District trips across the Lower Peninsula. Tawas will journey to Maple City Glen Lake in Division 6 this week. With wins this week, Lincoln Alcona could end up heading to Frankfort for a Division 8 District Final. Those trips aren’t ideal, but they did allow us to keep northern Lower Peninsula teams together – and in reality, aren’t too different than when teams from the Lower Peninsula and Upper Peninsula match up the first week, as will be the case in Division 4 (Whitehall to Escanaba), Division 5 (Kalkaska to Menominee and Grayling to Kingsford), Division 6 (Charlevoix to Negaunee and Boyne City to Calumet) and Division 8 (Gaylord St. Mary to Newberry).

It’s just the math: The one unexpected oddity of this week’s matchups is Canton going back to Northville for the second week in a row, and after beating Northville 42-27 last week. But math does rule, and Northville does have a higher playoff point average despite that Week 9 loss; the Mustangs beat five teams that finished with winning records, while Canton beat three – which of course is no fault of the Chiefs. It's just the way – rarely – things work out.

At the end of the day …

In six years of being part of these discussions, this weekend’s at least seemed to be the most extensive. We had two and three versions of multiple divisions before deciding which we believed to be the best.

Only one division map – 8-player – was an absolute slam dunk. The rest received plenty of scrutiny from a committee that now includes veterans going back to the beginning but also has had some new eyes join in over the last couple of years. That variety of viewpoints certainly pays off.

And wow, did we fall into some incredible first-week matchups:

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Rockford and Hudsonville in a rematch of the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red-deciding game of Week 9 (a Hudsonville 14-7 win).

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Traverse City West vs. Traverse City Central for the first time in playoff history (Central won 10-8 in Week 3).

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Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook Kingswood at Detroit Country Day in a homecoming for longtime Yellowjackets coach Joe D’Angelo.

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Constantine at Schoolcraft in a matchup of longtime southwestern rivals (Schoolcraft won 20-10 in Week 8).

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Cedarville at Engadine in arguably the most intriguing of three all-U.P. 8-player matchups (Engadine won 52-42 in Week 7).

Truly, at the end of November, the best teams will have to beat the rest to finish as champions – regardless of maps, matchups, weather and anything else that won’t really factor into what eventually is settled on the field.

For many high school sports fans, it’s the favorite time of year. Join us now as we prepare for kickoff.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTOS: (Top) The Division 1 bracket mapped out on the Lower Peninsula. (Middle) The Division 3 map keeps four mid-Michigan teams together.

1st & Goal: 2024 Week 4 Preview

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

September 19, 2024

We’re steadily moving toward the midpoint of this football regular season, but league races already could begin sorting themselves out with at least a few of our premier matchups this week.

MI Student AidTwo of our highlighted games – in Detroit and the Upper Peninsula – decided league championships a year ago. We’re still figuring things out this fall, of course, but several more games to watch this week appear to have similar potential.

All games listed below are tonight unless noted, with results as they are reported posting all weekend on the MHSAA Scores page – and updated standings also available by clicking the schools on the score list.

Bay & Thumb

Croswell-Lexington (2-1) at North Branch (3-0) WATCH

North Branch went from co-champion of the Blue Water Area Conference in 2022 to 4-5 overall a year ago, but the Broncos appear primed for another run. They’ve yet to give up a point while scoring a combined 179 over their three victories, although Croswell-Lexington should provide their toughest challenge so far. The Pioneers did lose a tough 14-0 matchup with Armada to start their BWAC schedule two weeks ago, but won last season’s meeting with North Branch 34-14 and rebounded last week with a 41-20 win over Richmond.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Millington (3-0) at Cass City (2-1) WATCH, Saginaw Heritage (2-1) at Davison (2-1), Clare (3-0) at Gladwin (2-1), Freeland (3-0) at Flint Powers Catholic (2-1) WATCH.

Greater Detroit

Detroit Martin Luther King (2-1) at Detroit Cass Tech (2-1) WATCH

The Public School League’s most competitive rivalry is set for its latest installment with Cass Tech ranked No. 4 in Division 1 and King No. 3 in Division 3. Cass won both meetings last year, 14-7 and 24-23, and actually has won three straight in the series with an anticipated rematch likely in the PSL championship game at the end of this regular season. Both are already tested with wins over top Ohio teams and losses against Michigan title contenders, Cass to Rockford and King to Warren De La Salle Collegiate.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Detroit Catholic Central (3-0) at Orchard Lake St. Mary’s (2-1) WATCH, Clarkston (2-1) at Rochester Adams (3-0) WATCH, Macomb Dakota (3-0) at Sterling Heights Stevenson (3-0) WATCH, Toledo Central Catholic, Ohio (3-1) at Warren De La Salle Collegiate (3-0).

Mid-Michigan

Owosso (3-0) at Corunna (3-0) WATCH

Aside from a 12-year stretch when these neighbors met on opening night, and even with those games included, it’s been a while since this matchup has had this kind of punch. Corunna has won the last five between them, all by at least 21 points, and the Cavaliers are on the move again after last season’s Division 5 runner-up finish. But Owosso already has as many wins as a year ago, and one more this fall will guarantee the Trojans their best finish since 2012.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Parma Western (3-0) at Hastings (3-0), Newaygo (3-0) at Howard City Tri County (3-0), Holt (2-1) at Grand Ledge (2-1) WATCH, Durand (2-1) at Ovid-Elsie (3-0) WATCH.

Northern Lower Peninsula

Boyne City (2-1) at Kingsley (2-1) WATCH

Kingsley has bounced back from a two-point loss to Reed City in its opener to look very Kingsley-like, last week rushing for a school-record 668 yards in a win over Grayling, according to the Traverse City Record-Eagle. Boyne City also opened with a loss but quickly has bounced back, avenging a 2023 defeat to Charlevoix last week 45-21. Kingsley won last year’s matchup 64-13, but this time these two are back in the same league, the Northern Michigan Football League’s Legends division.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Charlevoix (1-2) at East Jordan (3-0) WATCH, Grand Blanc (2-1) at Traverse City West (3-0) WATCH, Frankfort (2-1) at Johannesburg-Lewiston (2-1) WATCH, Cheboygan (2-1) at Kalkaska (1-2) WATCH.

Southeast & Border

Napoleon (2-1) at Manchester (3-0) WATCH

After posting its best finish last season since 2015, Manchester is continuing to make nice strides under first-year leader and previously-successful Addison coach Joshua Lindeman. The Flying Dutchmen’s start includes a 20-8 win over Lindeman’s former team in Week 2, and this weekend provides an opportunity to break a five-game losing streak against Napoleon, which defeated Manchester in the regular season and playoffs both of the last two seasons. Napoleon fell to much-improved Onsted to start this fall but has two wins to roll into this Cascades Conference East opener.

Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Ann Arbor Huron (2-1) at Dexter (2-1), Riverview Gabriel Richard (3-0) at Ann Arbor Father Gabriel Richard (3-0). FRIDAY Hudson (2-1) at Onsted (2-1) WATCH, Clinton (2-1) at Blissfield (2-1) WATCH.

Southwest Corridor

Decatur (3-0) at White Pigeon (3-0) WATCH

Decatur is 3-0 for the first time since 2014 and handed Petersburg Summerfield its only defeat with a 30-27 Week 2 win. The Raiders also have been among few to have success against White Pigeon since the formation of the Southwest 10 Conference in 2017, most recently winning their 2022 matchup before White Pigeon took last year’s 36-12. The Chiefs’ regular-season winning streak is up to 16 games as they look to repeat as league champion.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY South Haven (2-1) at Constantine (3-0), Vermontville Maple Valley (2-1) at Union City (3-0) WATCH, Paw Paw (3-0) at Vicksburg (2-1) WATCH, Allegan (2-1) at Kalamazoo United (2-1).

Upper Peninsula

Negaunee (3-0) at Kingsford (3-0) WATCH

Last season’s 13-12 win was Negaunee’s first over Kingsford, according to a Marquette Mining Journal report, and ended up eventually gaining the Miners a shared Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper title with the Flivvers as the teams went on to finish a combined 18-5. Negaunee was one of few opponents to slow Kingsford’s attack last year, and that defensive flex has continued as the Miners have given up only 14 points over their first three games this fall. Kingsford has been even better, allowing just eight points so far.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Calumet (2-1) at Menominee (3-0) WATCH, Bark River-Harris (1-2) at Gwinn (2-1), Ishpeming Westwood (1-2) at Houghton (1-2), Iron Mountain (3-0) at West Iron County (1-2) WATCH.

West Michigan

Byron Center (3-0) at Muskegon Mona Shores (3-0) WATCH

Byron Center’s recent surge and move into the Ottawa-Kent Conference Green this season has added serious intrigue to this matchup. The Bulldogs won 10 games last season for the third time over the last eight seasons and have continued to pick up steam, with a 43-20 win over East Kentwood in Week 2 especially notable. Mona Shores, meanwhile, has navigated one of the toughest opening slates with wins over Grand Blanc, River Rouge and Flint Hamady – all on the road.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Zeeland East (2-1) at Zeeland West (3-0) WATCH, Grand Rapids Northview (3-0) at East Grand Rapids (2-1) WATCH, Rockford (3-0) at Hudsonville (2-1) WATCH, Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central (3-0) at Hudsonville Unity Christian (3-0).

8-Player

Ishpeming (3-0) at Pickford (3-0)

Ishpeming’s move to 8-player football this season got its biggest boost yet with last week’s 50-28 win over Gaylord St. Mary, but the Hematites can establish themselves among championship contenders over their next two games. First up is Pickford, a Division 1 semifinalist a year ago, before a Week 5 meeting with last season’s Division 1 runner-up Indian River Inland Lakes. Pickford hasn’t been challenged much yet, although a 40-12 win over Powers North Central always will be impressive.

Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Alcona (3-0) at Atlanta (3-0) WATCH, Deckerville (3-0) at Brown City (3-0),
Kingston (3-0) at Mayville (2-1). SATURDAY Morrice (3-0) at Portland St. Patrick (3-0).

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PHOTO Harrison Township L'Anse Creuse's Donovan Rey (3) breaks through an opening during his team's 54-20 win over Macomb L'Anse Creuse North last week. (Photo by Adam Sheehan.)