Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '16

October 24, 2016

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

There was a wheel and something that looked like a magic wand. Another started out looking like the head of a caterpillar.

A number of Michigan football teams realized their sky-high dreams with Sunday’s playoff selection announcement on Fox Sports Detroit. 

But earlier that day, as is the case at the end of each fall, shaping this season’s tournament at times looked a little like finding pictures in the clouds.

Beginning last night and into this morning, MHSAA staff have been busily gathering game days and times for this weekend’s opening round. We’re assigning officials for those contests. Schools are preparing for what likely will be one of their biggest crowds of the season. And, of course, teams are preparing for what surely will be one of their most memorable games.

But before all of that could begin, we met Sunday morning with nine maps of Michigan and 272 dots that needed to be organized to set another playoffs in motion.

As we’ve done the past five seasons, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2016 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions. For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2016.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were 218 automatic qualifiers by win total – only two more than the record low set a year ago – with the final 38 at-large qualifiers then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. For the second consecutive season there were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams from Class A and 11 each from Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2016

First things, first: Congratulations to five first-time playoff qualifiers  Bloomfield Hills, Detroit Delta Prep, Southfield Arts & Technology, Southfield Bradford and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian. Bloomfield Hills (Lahser and Andover) and Southfield Arts & Technology (Southfield and Southfield-Lathrup) were created by mergers of previous schools. Southfield A&T and Detroit Delta Prep are eligible for tournament play this season for the first time. Bradford and Tri-unity Christian both started programs during the latter half of the 2000s; Tri-unity qualified in 8-player after moving back to that format from 11-player this fall. Of 617 varsity football programs that played games this season (including five not eligible for the playoffs as either a first-year program or with an enrollment too high for 8-player), all but 18 have made the playoffs at least once going back to the first series in 1975.

Tie it up: We had a few ties in a few ways this season. In two situations, we had multiple teams with the same enrollment at a line between divisions. In those cases, the teams with the higher playoff point averages go to the larger divisions – so Ferndale went to Division 2 and East Lansing to Division 3 to settle one tie, and Lansing Sexton went to Division 4 and Dowagiac to Division 5 to settle the other. The additional tie came in 8-player football, with Portland St. Patrick and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian both having the same playoff point average, the same opponents’ winning percentage and drawn into the same District. A coin flip was used to determine St. Patrick as the top seed and home team both this week and next if it advances and plays the Defenders.

Local really is the rule: Division 3 provided us with a fine example to help show that we work to draw maps locally and beginning with the earliest rounds. There were at least three ways to separate the schools in Region 3 District 1: East Lansing, DeWitt, Fowlerville and Mason. DeWitt, as the westernmost of the group, could’ve been drawn southwest with R2D2’s Vicksburg, Battle Creek Harper Creek and Coldwater, replacing Chelsea. Doing so would’ve literally split the state’s regions down the middle along U.S. 127, which is a favorable picture. But protocol is to favor local matchups at the earliest rounds, and it just didn’t make sense to take DeWitt away from three schools mere minutes away when subbing it in for Chelsea would’ve created a wash in terms of travel for the other three teams in R2D2.

Sometimes, there’s no choice: But keeping a group of four local teams together often is impossible. Remember, 32 dots usually are spread out at least all over the Lower Peninsula. In Division 4, we had Grand Rapids Catholic Central, Wyoming Godwin Heights, Wyoming Kelloggsville and Grand Rapids South Christian stacked nicely along U.S. 131 – but had to send southernmost South Christian down with Benton Harbor, Three Rivers and Hudsonville Unity Christian because there was no other grouping for Allendale, which is about 20 miles west of Grand Rapids. Another incident of splitting up near-neighbors happened in Division 2; we had Lowell and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central next door to each other, but no other Grand Rapids area teams qualify. By only a few miles, Forest Hills Central is south of Lowell – so although the Rangers had shorter drives than Lowell to possible opponents both north and south, they went into a group with Portage Northern, Portage Central and Battle Creek Lakeview, and Lowell went north to join Greenville, Traverse City West and Traverse City Central.

Why coast to coast: It wasn’t lost on the committee that teams waking up looking at Lake Huron traveling to play on Lake Michigan isn’t the greatest scenario. But it was the best of the options, and we stayed consistent by setting up a possible two District trips across the Lower Peninsula. Tawas will journey to Maple City Glen Lake in Division 6 this week. With wins this week, Lincoln Alcona could end up heading to Frankfort for a Division 8 District Final. Those trips aren’t ideal, but they did allow us to keep northern Lower Peninsula teams together – and in reality, aren’t too different than when teams from the Lower Peninsula and Upper Peninsula match up the first week, as will be the case in Division 4 (Whitehall to Escanaba), Division 5 (Kalkaska to Menominee and Grayling to Kingsford), Division 6 (Charlevoix to Negaunee and Boyne City to Calumet) and Division 8 (Gaylord St. Mary to Newberry).

It’s just the math: The one unexpected oddity of this week’s matchups is Canton going back to Northville for the second week in a row, and after beating Northville 42-27 last week. But math does rule, and Northville does have a higher playoff point average despite that Week 9 loss; the Mustangs beat five teams that finished with winning records, while Canton beat three – which of course is no fault of the Chiefs. It's just the way – rarely – things work out.

At the end of the day …

In six years of being part of these discussions, this weekend’s at least seemed to be the most extensive. We had two and three versions of multiple divisions before deciding which we believed to be the best.

Only one division map – 8-player – was an absolute slam dunk. The rest received plenty of scrutiny from a committee that now includes veterans going back to the beginning but also has had some new eyes join in over the last couple of years. That variety of viewpoints certainly pays off.

And wow, did we fall into some incredible first-week matchups:

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Rockford and Hudsonville in a rematch of the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red-deciding game of Week 9 (a Hudsonville 14-7 win).

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Traverse City West vs. Traverse City Central for the first time in playoff history (Central won 10-8 in Week 3).

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Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook Kingswood at Detroit Country Day in a homecoming for longtime Yellowjackets coach Joe D’Angelo.

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Constantine at Schoolcraft in a matchup of longtime southwestern rivals (Schoolcraft won 20-10 in Week 8).

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Cedarville at Engadine in arguably the most intriguing of three all-U.P. 8-player matchups (Engadine won 52-42 in Week 7).

Truly, at the end of November, the best teams will have to beat the rest to finish as champions – regardless of maps, matchups, weather and anything else that won’t really factor into what eventually is settled on the field.

For many high school sports fans, it’s the favorite time of year. Join us now as we prepare for kickoff.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTOS: (Top) The Division 1 bracket mapped out on the Lower Peninsula. (Middle) The Division 3 map keeps four mid-Michigan teams together.

1st & Goal: 2023 Week 8 Preview

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

October 11, 2023

Only two regular-season games remain for the majority of Michigan’s high school football teams, but thousands of players and coaches will be striving this weekend to extend their time on the field this fall.

MI Student AidAnd it may take only one more winning performance to do so.

Just last weekend, 19 teams moved into the possible playoff field of 288 as one of the top 32 in 11-player divisions or 16 in 8-player divisions based on playoff-point average.

Among those 256 11-player teams – qualifiers if the regular season had ended after last weekend – Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central jumped 13 spots to No. 9 in Division 7, Oak Park moved up nine spots to No. 29 in Division 2 and Hastings jumped eight spots to No. 11 in Division 4, while several more hopefuls earned upward movement of seven or six positions. Overall, only the potential qualifier list in 8-player Division 2 remained unchanged from Week 6.

To keep an eye on those possibilities as results come in, load the Playoff Point Summary page at MHSAA.com.

Below are this week’s most intriguing matchups across the state, many still determining league champions and most factoring into which teams will continue to play after the regular season is done. All games are Friday unless noted. 

Bay & Thumb

Davison (7-0) at Grand Blanc (5-2) - WATCH

This will be the first time since 2020 that these rivals will decide a league championship, with Grand Blanc the outright Saginaw Valley League Red title winner with a victory and Davison facing one more game against Lapeer next week but able to claim a share if it comes out on top this weekend. The Cardinals are 6-1 against the Bobcats – including two playoff wins – since they began playing in the same division of the SVL in 2018, and Davison won 49-14 and then 27-0 a year ago. After a five-point win over Division 2 powerhouse Warren De La Salle College in Week 1, Davison has prevailed in all of its games by at least two touchdowns. But the Bobcats’ defeats have come against a pair of ranked opponents, Grandville and East Lansing, who are a combined 11-3 – and Grand Blanc posted an impressive 44-26 win over Lapeer two weeks ago.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Ubly (7-0) at Cass City (6-1) - WATCH, North Branch (4-3) at Croswell-Lexington (6-1) - WATCH, Beaverton (5-2) at Gladwin (6-1), Lapeer (5-2) at Midland (4-3) - WATCH.

Greater Detroit

Detroit Cass Tech (5-2) vs. Detroit Martin Luther King (4-3) at Ford Field

The first meeting between these two Sept. 15 was an opportunity to see how rearranged lineups matched up with each other, and Cass Tech won 14-7. Now that those new players and other players in new places have nearly a full regular season behind them, this Detroit Public School League Blue championship game could settle into another titanic faceoff. Cass Tech hasn’t given up a point since King scored those seven a month ago, and King hasn’t given up more than six in a game since Cass put up those 14. Keep this in mind as well: In the four seasons Cass and King have met twice over the last decade, only last year – when the Technicians avenged a 28-23 loss with a 28-14 win four weeks later – has the same team not won both.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Allen Park (7-0) at Gibraltar Carlson (6-1) - WATCH, Mason (7-0) at Walled Lake Western (7-0) - WATCH, Southfield Arts & Technology (7-0) at West Bloomfield (5-2) - WATCH, Northville (7-0) at Novi (6-1) - WATCH.

Mid-Michigan

Portland (7-0) at Lansing Sexton (7-0) - WATCH

The first meeting between these two Sept. 15 was an opportunity to see how rearranged lineups matched up with each other, and Cass Tech won 14-7. Now that those new players and other players in new places have nearly a full regular season behind them, this Detroit Public School League Blue championship game could settle into another titanic faceoff. Cass Tech hasn’t given up a point since King scored those seven a month ago, and King hasn’t given up more than six in a game since Cass put up those 14. Keep this in mind as well: In the four seasons Cass and King have met twice over the last decade, only last year – when the Technicians avenged a 28-23 loss with a 28-14 win four weeks later – has the same team not won both.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Fowler (6-1) at Laingsburg (4-3) - WATCH, DeWitt (4-2) at Lansing Everett (4-3) - WATCH, Midland Dow (4-3) at Mount Pleasant (6-1). SATURDAY Fenton (6-1) at Corunna (7-0) - WATCH.

Northern Lower Peninsula

Frankfort (6-1) at East Jordan (6-1) - WATCH

This league championship matchup has seemed destined for a while, with only a pair of nonleague detours keeping these teams from perfection heading into this weekend, and this will be the second time in three seasons these two will meet to decide a title winner. East Jordan’s last three seasons together have amounted to the program’s best string of success in two decades, and only two six-point losses – including one to Frankfort – kept the Red Devils’ from repeating as the Northern Michigan Football Conference Legends champion last season. Their only loss this fall was to NMFC Leaders champ Charlevoix. Frankfort is coming off a nonleague loss to another likely Division 8 contender in Fowler, but will try to bounce back to clinch its first league title since 2016. After falling in the title matchup to East Jordan 22-18 in 2021, the Panthers also finished league runner-up last fall.  

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Jackson Lumen Christi (7-0) at Gaylord (7-0) - WATCH, Evart (5-2) at Houghton Lake (4-3) - WATCH, Benzie Central (4-3) at Maple City Glen Lake (4-3) - WATCH. SATURDAY Marquette (4-2) at Cadillac (4-3) - WATCH.

Southeast & Border

Dundee (4-3) at Hudson (7-0) - WATCH

Hudson can meet Clinton next week for a winner-take-all in the Lenawee County Athletic Association, but Dundee definitely can switch things up as well with success tonight. Although the Tigers have won their last three meetings with the Vikings, Dundee also is pushing for a third-straight playoff appearance and already has scored more points this fall than they did over 11 games in 2021 and 10 games last season. The Vikings' offense will get its toughest test, however, as Hudson has given up only 50 points this season and none since Week 5. Still, the Tigers must be sure to not look ahead to next week's opponent, as Clinton is the only team that has defeated Hudson in LCAA play over the last three seasons. 

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Michigan Center (5-2) at Manchester (6-1) - WATCH, Trenton (4-3) at Chelsea (6-1) - WATCH, Belding (6-1) at Jackson (4-3) - WATCH, Milan (3-4) at Carleton Airport (6-1).

Southwest Corridor

Constantine (6-1) at South Haven (5-2) - WATCH

Only a few seasons ago, South Haven ended a 29-game losing streak, and just last season the Rams finished 2-7. This weekend they’ll play for a share of the Southwestern Athletic Conference Lakeshore championship, entering this matchup off three league wins all by at least 28 points. Of course, Constantine is a major obstacle standing in the way. The Falcons’ three league wins are all by 20 or more points, and they’ve won 19 straight Lakeshore games going back to 2019 – when they still shared the league championship. South Haven will have a chance to put into practice lessons learned in losses to tough opponents – Lawton is a likely Division 7 contender and Ada Forest Hills Eastern is strong in Division 4 – and Constantine bounced back from its lone loss to Benton Harbor to defeat Lawton the following week in starting a five-game winning streak.   

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Portage Northern (6-1) at Stevensville Lakeshore (5-2) - WATCH, Kalamazoo United (4-3) at Allegan (4-3) - WATCH, Ottawa Lake Whiteford (7-0) at Union City (6-1) - WATCH, Dowagiac (4-3) at Buchanan (4-3) - WATCH.

Upper Peninsula

Menominee (6-1) at Kingsford (6-1) - WATCH

The winner of this game will claim a Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper championship – either shared or outright – while the loser will finish either tied for second or solo in third, depending on what a third co-leader, Negaunee, does at Houghton this weekend. Kingsford’s only defeat this fall was 13-12 to the Miners in Week 4, and Menominee is hoping to rebound quickly after falling to Negaunee 47-20 last week. The Flivvers and Maroons have played memorable matchups the last two seasons, Kingsford winning 34-27 in 2021 and Menominee avenging 42-41 to close the 2022 regular season. Kingsford still has given up only 25 points this fall, with five shutouts, and Menominee has four shutouts and had given up only 32 points before last week.  

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Manistique (4-3) at Bark River-Harris (4-3) - WATCH, Gladstone (5-2) at Calumet (3-4) - WATCH, Petoskey (4-3) at Sault Ste. Marie (5-2) - WATCH, Negaunee (6-1) at Houghton (2-5) - WATCH.

West Michigan

Rockford (7-0) at Grandville (6-1)

Rockford has won 24 straight Ottawa-Kent Conference Red games, but this won’t be the first time the Rams and Grandville have squared off for the league title – in fact, it will be the fourth time over the last 10 years, and Rockford still won the Red championship in 2019 despite the Bulldogs handing them their most recent league loss that fall. Grandville started this season playing back-to-back games against the teams vying tonight for the Saginaw Valley League Red title, defeating Grand Blanc and falling to Davison, and the Bulldogs also have earned close yet impressive wins over Hudsonville and last week Caledonia. Rockford followed its opening 20 and 23-point wins over Muskegon and Mona Shores, respectively, with more of the same in league play – and hasn’t played a single-digit regular-season game since Week 2 of last fall.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Grand Rapids South Christian (6-1) at Grand Rapids Catholic Central (6-1) - WATCH, East Grand Rapids (6-1) at Byron Center (6-1), Lawton (6-1) at Saugatuck (7-0) - WATCH, Zeeland West (6-1) at Muskegon Mona Shores (5-2).

8-Player

Pittsford (7-0) at Adrian Lenawee Christian (7-0) - WATCH

The winner takes all in the Southern Central Athletic Association East. The familiarity between these two goes back more than a decade, and with Lenawee No. 1 and Pittsford tied at No. 3 on the Division 2 playoff-points average list, this could be just the first round this season. Pittsford, not surprisingly, has found itself back in a championship mix; the Wildcats were among the state’s top small-school 11-player programs for decades before making the switch to 8-player last fall. That first run ended at 5-4 and the Wildcats just missing the playoffs, but they’ve found their stride this fall, especially on defense where they gave up a high of 16 points in the season opener and no more than eight in a game since. Lenawee Christian brings the challenge of an offense that scores 57 ppg and put 73 up against Mendon two weeks ago and 56 on Pittsford in their 2022 meeting.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Marion (6-0) at Brethren (5-2) - WATCH, Pickford (7-0) at Newberry (6-1), Rogers City (4-3) at Alcona (6-1) - WATCH, Mayville (5-2) at Kingston (6-1) - WATCH.

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PHOTO A pair of Muskegon defenders make a tackle against Holland this season.  (Photo by Tim Reilly.)