Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '16

October 24, 2016

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

There was a wheel and something that looked like a magic wand. Another started out looking like the head of a caterpillar.

A number of Michigan football teams realized their sky-high dreams with Sunday’s playoff selection announcement on Fox Sports Detroit. 

But earlier that day, as is the case at the end of each fall, shaping this season’s tournament at times looked a little like finding pictures in the clouds.

Beginning last night and into this morning, MHSAA staff have been busily gathering game days and times for this weekend’s opening round. We’re assigning officials for those contests. Schools are preparing for what likely will be one of their biggest crowds of the season. And, of course, teams are preparing for what surely will be one of their most memorable games.

But before all of that could begin, we met Sunday morning with nine maps of Michigan and 272 dots that needed to be organized to set another playoffs in motion.

As we’ve done the past five seasons, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2016 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions. For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2016.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were 218 automatic qualifiers by win total – only two more than the record low set a year ago – with the final 38 at-large qualifiers then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. For the second consecutive season there were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams from Class A and 11 each from Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2016

First things, first: Congratulations to five first-time playoff qualifiers  Bloomfield Hills, Detroit Delta Prep, Southfield Arts & Technology, Southfield Bradford and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian. Bloomfield Hills (Lahser and Andover) and Southfield Arts & Technology (Southfield and Southfield-Lathrup) were created by mergers of previous schools. Southfield A&T and Detroit Delta Prep are eligible for tournament play this season for the first time. Bradford and Tri-unity Christian both started programs during the latter half of the 2000s; Tri-unity qualified in 8-player after moving back to that format from 11-player this fall. Of 617 varsity football programs that played games this season (including five not eligible for the playoffs as either a first-year program or with an enrollment too high for 8-player), all but 18 have made the playoffs at least once going back to the first series in 1975.

Tie it up: We had a few ties in a few ways this season. In two situations, we had multiple teams with the same enrollment at a line between divisions. In those cases, the teams with the higher playoff point averages go to the larger divisions – so Ferndale went to Division 2 and East Lansing to Division 3 to settle one tie, and Lansing Sexton went to Division 4 and Dowagiac to Division 5 to settle the other. The additional tie came in 8-player football, with Portland St. Patrick and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian both having the same playoff point average, the same opponents’ winning percentage and drawn into the same District. A coin flip was used to determine St. Patrick as the top seed and home team both this week and next if it advances and plays the Defenders.

Local really is the rule: Division 3 provided us with a fine example to help show that we work to draw maps locally and beginning with the earliest rounds. There were at least three ways to separate the schools in Region 3 District 1: East Lansing, DeWitt, Fowlerville and Mason. DeWitt, as the westernmost of the group, could’ve been drawn southwest with R2D2’s Vicksburg, Battle Creek Harper Creek and Coldwater, replacing Chelsea. Doing so would’ve literally split the state’s regions down the middle along U.S. 127, which is a favorable picture. But protocol is to favor local matchups at the earliest rounds, and it just didn’t make sense to take DeWitt away from three schools mere minutes away when subbing it in for Chelsea would’ve created a wash in terms of travel for the other three teams in R2D2.

Sometimes, there’s no choice: But keeping a group of four local teams together often is impossible. Remember, 32 dots usually are spread out at least all over the Lower Peninsula. In Division 4, we had Grand Rapids Catholic Central, Wyoming Godwin Heights, Wyoming Kelloggsville and Grand Rapids South Christian stacked nicely along U.S. 131 – but had to send southernmost South Christian down with Benton Harbor, Three Rivers and Hudsonville Unity Christian because there was no other grouping for Allendale, which is about 20 miles west of Grand Rapids. Another incident of splitting up near-neighbors happened in Division 2; we had Lowell and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central next door to each other, but no other Grand Rapids area teams qualify. By only a few miles, Forest Hills Central is south of Lowell – so although the Rangers had shorter drives than Lowell to possible opponents both north and south, they went into a group with Portage Northern, Portage Central and Battle Creek Lakeview, and Lowell went north to join Greenville, Traverse City West and Traverse City Central.

Why coast to coast: It wasn’t lost on the committee that teams waking up looking at Lake Huron traveling to play on Lake Michigan isn’t the greatest scenario. But it was the best of the options, and we stayed consistent by setting up a possible two District trips across the Lower Peninsula. Tawas will journey to Maple City Glen Lake in Division 6 this week. With wins this week, Lincoln Alcona could end up heading to Frankfort for a Division 8 District Final. Those trips aren’t ideal, but they did allow us to keep northern Lower Peninsula teams together – and in reality, aren’t too different than when teams from the Lower Peninsula and Upper Peninsula match up the first week, as will be the case in Division 4 (Whitehall to Escanaba), Division 5 (Kalkaska to Menominee and Grayling to Kingsford), Division 6 (Charlevoix to Negaunee and Boyne City to Calumet) and Division 8 (Gaylord St. Mary to Newberry).

It’s just the math: The one unexpected oddity of this week’s matchups is Canton going back to Northville for the second week in a row, and after beating Northville 42-27 last week. But math does rule, and Northville does have a higher playoff point average despite that Week 9 loss; the Mustangs beat five teams that finished with winning records, while Canton beat three – which of course is no fault of the Chiefs. It's just the way – rarely – things work out.

At the end of the day …

In six years of being part of these discussions, this weekend’s at least seemed to be the most extensive. We had two and three versions of multiple divisions before deciding which we believed to be the best.

Only one division map – 8-player – was an absolute slam dunk. The rest received plenty of scrutiny from a committee that now includes veterans going back to the beginning but also has had some new eyes join in over the last couple of years. That variety of viewpoints certainly pays off.

And wow, did we fall into some incredible first-week matchups:

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Rockford and Hudsonville in a rematch of the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red-deciding game of Week 9 (a Hudsonville 14-7 win).

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Traverse City West vs. Traverse City Central for the first time in playoff history (Central won 10-8 in Week 3).

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Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook Kingswood at Detroit Country Day in a homecoming for longtime Yellowjackets coach Joe D’Angelo.

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Constantine at Schoolcraft in a matchup of longtime southwestern rivals (Schoolcraft won 20-10 in Week 8).

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Cedarville at Engadine in arguably the most intriguing of three all-U.P. 8-player matchups (Engadine won 52-42 in Week 7).

Truly, at the end of November, the best teams will have to beat the rest to finish as champions – regardless of maps, matchups, weather and anything else that won’t really factor into what eventually is settled on the field.

For many high school sports fans, it’s the favorite time of year. Join us now as we prepare for kickoff.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTOS: (Top) The Division 1 bracket mapped out on the Lower Peninsula. (Middle) The Division 3 map keeps four mid-Michigan teams together.

1st & Goal: 2024 Week 6 Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

October 7, 2024

We don’t track margin of victory week to week during the Michigan high school football season. So only anecdotally we will say that Week 6 felt like it was filled with several more close games than usual across the state.

MI Student AidTotal, 57 games were decided by eight points or fewer – in essence, a touchdown and 2-point conversion, or less – and those 57 games including 113 Michigan teams (with River Rouge playing an Ohio opponent).

In other words, 19 percent of our varsity teams were part of games decided by such a slim margin – including many of the results of intriguing matchups we highlight below.

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Almont 29, Armada 28 Almont’s last-minute go-ahead score may end up deciding the Blue Water Area Conference championship as the Raiders (6-0) held on to win this matchup of undefeated teams. They can clinch a share of the title this week against Richmond, while Armada (5-1) fell into a second-place tie with North Branch – but with some hope as North Branch plays Almont in Week 8. Click for more from the Port Huron Times Herald.

Watch list Marysville 39, Marine City 20 Marysville (5-1) rebounded from a 35-0 opening-night loss to Almont to win five straight and clinch a share of the Macomb Area Conference Silver title – with an opportunity to win it outright this week against second-place St. Clair.

On the move Davison 35, East Lansing 10 Davison (5-1) built a strong nonleague schedule again for this season, and this final nonconference win bumped the Cardinals up to No. 9 in Division 1 playoff-point average while keeping East Lansing (3-3) still firmly in the Division 2 mix. Grand Blanc 35, Lapeer 21 The undefeated atop the Saginaw Valley League Red standings are down to Grand Blanc (5-1) and Davison, with Lapeer (4-2) holding on to a sliver of title share hope after taking its second league loss. Fenton 24, Linden 21 Fenton (6-0) took a field goal lead during the first quarter and continued to maintain that advantage to the end to clinch a share of the Flint Metro League Stripes title and send Linden to 3-3 – but with some title share hope as Fenton faces the other second-place team, Flushing, this week.

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Trenton 28, Gibraltar Carlson 14 Trenton (4-2) has strung together a nice comeback over the last month, with this win the necessary first step toward a possible – and what not long ago probably seemed improbable – opportunity to claim a share of the Downriver League title. The Trojans started this fall 0-2 with both losses in the league, but handed Carlson (5-1) its first. This week Trenton faces Downriver leader Allen Park – and with Allen Park and Carlson still to play as well. Click for more from the Southgate News-Herald.

Watch list Clawson 27, Clinton Township Clintondale 14 Reigning MAC Bronze champion Clawson (4-2) broke this season’s league standings open again, denying Clintondale (4-2) the opportunity to clinch a share of the title and setting up the possibility of three winners this season with Hazel Park also tied for first, one league game left for all three, and none of those three playing each other.

On the move Detroit Lincoln-King 50, Mount Clemens 0 Lincoln-King (6-0) posted its third straight shutout on the field (with a forfeit win during that run as well) and can clinch the Charter School Conference Silver title this week after sending Mount Clemens (4-2) into a tie for third place. Clinton Township Chippewa Valley 34, Utica Eisenhower 31 (2 OT) All of a sudden the Big Reds (2-4) are only five spots out of making the Division 1 playoff field after stunning Eisenhower (5-1), which can still claim a share of the MAC Red title by defeating first-place Macomb Dakota this week. Oxford 18, Rochester Adams 17 After opening Oakland Activities Association Red play with an eight-point loss to Clarkston, Oxford has pushed back into a tie for first with a chance to clinch a share of the title this week against West Bloomfield. Oddly enough, Adams – with two league losses by a combined four points – could be part of a five-team title share if all five in the division finish 2-2 in league play.

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER Fowler 14, Pewamo-Westphalia 11 Fowler (6-0) pulled into first place in the Central Michigan Athletic Conference and nearly pulled even with P-W (5-1) in their longstanding series. This was the Eagles’ second win in their last 10 meetings with the Pirates, but pulled Fowler to within one of tying P-W for wins in the 59-year rivalry. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

Watch list Leslie 36, Napoleon 28 With this win over reigning Cascades Conference East champion Napoleon (3-3), Leslie pulled within one more of clinching a share of this year’s title and with winless East Jackson up next. The Blackhawks (6-0) also have their most victories in a season since 2012, the last time they finished with a winning record.

On the move Ionia 21, Lansing Sexton 20 After this second-straight one-point win, Ionia (4-2) has avenged three of its losses from a year ago and needs two more victories to guarantee its best finish since 2013. Lansing Everett 35, Grand Ledge 12 Everett (5-1) bounced back from its loss to Grand Blanc with its first win over Grand Ledge (4-2) since 2019 – and with one more victory, would have its best finish since 2014. Mason 40, St. Johns 10 Mason (5-1) clinched a share of a sixth-straight Capital Area Activities Conference Red title by winning this matchup of league leaders, and also delivered St. Johns (5-1) its lone loss during what has been the Redwings’ best season since 2019.

Chesaning's Brayden Florian (11) finds a seam during his team's 50-0 win over Montrose.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Petoskey 42, Cadillac 18 The Northmen played themselves into a championship matchup in the Big North Conference this week, as they’ll face co-leader Marquette with two leagues games remaining for both. Petoskey also is 6-0 for the first time since 2011, tied last season’s win total with this one, and remains seventh in Division 3 playoff-point average while Cadillac (3-3) fell only one spot to No. 29. Click for more from the Petoskey News-Review.

Watch list Boyne City 21, Grayling 18 Boyne City (4-2) kept its destiny in its own hands, and it will face first-place Traverse City St. Francis in Week 9 with a chance to earn a share of the Northern Michigan Football League Legends championship.

On the move East Jordan 43, Mancelona 28 The Red Devils (4-2) bounced back from two-straight one-score losses to solidly reassert themselves in the middle of the potential Division 8 playoff field, with Mancelona (3-3) remaining in that mix as well. Traverse City St. Francis 55, Cheboygan 6 The Gladiators (5-1) won their third straight to clinch a share of the NMFL Legends title and send Cheboygan to 3-3. Charlevoix 28, Elk Rapids 0 The Rayders (4-2) are league champions as well with this clinching a share in the NMFL Leaders.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 34, Riverview 15 Two straight power-packed weeks in the Huron League have left Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central in first place and Riverview and Flat Rock both a game back, with SMCC facing Flat Rock this week with at least a share of the league title on the line. This was billed as Riverview’s powerful offense against the Falcons’ unyielding defense, and the latter won out to give SMCC its first victory over the Pirates since 2019. Click for more from the Monroe News.

Watch list Dexter 42, Ann Arbor Pioneer 6 Dexter (6-0) clinched the Southeastern Conference Red championship, in part by sending Pioneer (4-2) into a tie for second place. The Dreadnaughts can claim the title outright this week at Monroe.

On the move Jackson Lumen Christi 63, Toledo St. Francis de Sales 35 In a winner-take-all for the Catholic High School League AA championship, Lumen Christi (5-1) clinched it and has won all six of its CHSL games since entering the league last fall. Ottawa Lake Whiteford 65, Erie Mason 8 Petersburg Summerfield clinched a share of the Tri-County Conference title by way of this Whiteford win, but the Bobcats (5-1) no doubt will be cheering for Mason next week to defeat Summerfield, which would create a shared title among all three. Chelsea 38, Tecumseh 14 Chelsea has strung together five straight wins after losing its season opener, and this one, combined with Adrian’s 17-14 victory over Jackson, gave the Bulldogs (5-1) the outright SEC White title.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER Kalamazoo United 33, Constantine 21 United’s first win over Constantine since 2018 ended the Falcons’ 23-game winning streak in the Southwestern Athletic Conference Lakeshore and put the Titans (5-1) in position to clinch a share of the league title this week if Constantine (5-1) defeats co-leader Parchment. United faces Parchment in Week 8. Click for more from the Kalamazoo Gazette.

Watch list Schoolcraft 17, Lawton 3 Schoolcraft (5-1) will face Saugatuck this week for a share of the SAC Valley title after sending Lawton (4-2) into third place by ending a five-game losing streak against the Blue Devils. Lawton had defeated the Eagles in both the regular season and playoffs the last two years.

On the move Battle Creek Harper Creek 32, Parma Western 13 Harper Creek (5-1) has played itself into a similar spot as last season – set to face Hastings with major Interstate 8 Athletic Conference implications. But this time, the Beavers have a win over Parma Western out of the way as they avenged last year’s loss to the third-place Panthers. Paw Paw 21, Edwardsburg 7 The Wolverine Conference race is likely to go to the end of the regular season, but this was a major obstacle to overcome as Paw Paw (6-0) moved closer to a Week 9 matchup with current co-leader and reigning champion Niles – which faces Edwardsburg (4-2) this week. Berrien Springs 31, Buchanan 6 Berrien Springs (3-3) won its second straight over the Bucks (3-3) and will face Dowagiac this week for a share of the Lakeland Conference championship.

Negaunee's Hank Tincknell (35) gets read to take on an Ishpeming Westwood defender.Negaunee's Hank Tincknell (35) gets read to take on an Ishpeming Westwood defender.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Marquette 28, Escanaba 7 As Petoskey accomplished against Cadillac (noted above), Marquette (5-1) did its work to set up this weekend’s Big North Conference matchup of coleaders. The seven points scored by Escanaba (3-3) were the first given up by the Sentinels in BNC play – impressive again versus an offense that was averaging 31 per game. Click for more from the Marquette Mining Journal.

Watch list Bark River-Harris 54, L’Anse 0 After opening with losses to Ishpeming Westwood and Iron Mountain, Bark River-Harris (4-2) has won four straight and its last three games by shutout. The 54 points scored were a season high.

On the move Calumet 29, Houghton 0 The Copper Kings (3-3) broke a three-game losing streak and in doing so bumped up from No. 40 in Division 6 playoff-point average to No. 32. Manistique 33, West Iron County 0 The Emeralds will finish off the regular season with a pair of still-undefeated opponents and will get a nice bump from those matchups win or lose, but this one paid off big as well as they jumped six spots to No. 30 in Division 8 playoff-point average. Negaunee 42, Ishpeming Westwood 6 With a Week 4 loss to co-leader Kingsford, but co-leader Menominee coming up this week, Negaunee still has some hope for a share of the title in Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper – and if that doesn’t work out, wins like this one over Westwood (2-4) will continue to boost the Miners in Division 6. They currently rank No. 12 on that playoff-point average list, up two spots from last week.

West Michigan

HEADLINER Grand Rapids Catholic Central 42, Holland Christian 18 The Cougars may have made the Ottawa-Kent Conference Black title pursuit a two-team race by sending Holland Christian out of a tie for first and with co-leader Grand Rapids Northview up next for the Cougars (5-1). Holland Christian (5-1) also will see Northview, in Week 8, as it continues building its guaranteed best season since 2018. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.

Watch list Zeeland East 22, Grand Rapids South Christian 15 The O-K Green is loaded and several other contenders have received a lot of the attention this fall. But the Chix (4-2) are right there as well, with this easily their most impressive win of the fall and a great way to push into the final two league games against Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central and leader Hudsonville Unity Christian. South Christian (4-2) has lost two straight after a strong start.

On the move Zeeland West 28, Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central 7 The Dux (5-1) bounced back after losing to Unity Christian in Week 5 and remain one game back in the Green with two league games to play. Rockford 34, Caledonia 14 Rockford (4-2) bounced back from its first back-to-back losses since 2018 by downing the Fighting Scots (4-2) to move back up to No. 15 in Division 1 playoff-point average. Grandville 33, East Kentwood 25 After opening with three losses, Grandville has three wins and the No. 22 spot in Division 1 playoff-point average thanks to a jump of 10 spots. East Kentwood (3-3) would be part of the field as well if the season ended today.

8-Player

HEADLINER Norway 40, Munising 28 The Great Lakes Eight Conference East has plenty of power with four of six teams .500 or better, and at the top are Norway and Pickford with the Knights (5-1) handing Munising (5-1) the latter’s first loss of the season. Circle Norway vs. Pickford in Week 8 as one of the biggest 8-player regular-season games of this fall. Click for more from the Iron Mountain Daily News.

Watch list Grand Rapids Sacred Heart 28, St. Joseph Our Lake of the Lake Catholic 20 Sacred Heart (6-0) emerged from one of its toughest tests of this program-defining season, the Falcons’ second overall and first playing a full varsity schedule. Our Lady (4-2) is one of five Sacred Heart opponents so far that sits at .500 or better.

On the move Mendon 66, Bellevue 42 Two strong offensive teams not surprisingly combined to score a lot of points, with Owen Gorham totaling 256 yards and six touchdowns rushing for Mendon (6-0) and Seth Keson running for two touchdowns, scoring a third on a kick return and throwing for two more for Bellevue (4-2). Fulton 60, Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart 33 The Pirates (5-1) have finished with winning seasons three of their four in 8-player football, and this has been their best start with this victory avenging a seven-point loss to the Irish (4-2) from a year ago. Marion 48, Suttons Bay 0 Marion (6-0) has won its games by an average of 38 points per, and this first shutout of the season came against one of its most successful opponents so far in the Norsemen (4-2).

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PHOTOS (Top) Fowler's Jacob Halfmann pulls away from a Pewamo-Westphalia defender Friday. (Middle) Chesaning's Brayden Florian (11) finds a seam during his team's 50-0 win over Montrose. (Below) c (Top photo by Jim Pivarnik. Chesaning/Montrose photo by Terry Lyons. Negaunee/Westwood photo by Cara Kamps.)