Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '16

October 24, 2016

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

There was a wheel and something that looked like a magic wand. Another started out looking like the head of a caterpillar.

A number of Michigan football teams realized their sky-high dreams with Sunday’s playoff selection announcement on Fox Sports Detroit. 

But earlier that day, as is the case at the end of each fall, shaping this season’s tournament at times looked a little like finding pictures in the clouds.

Beginning last night and into this morning, MHSAA staff have been busily gathering game days and times for this weekend’s opening round. We’re assigning officials for those contests. Schools are preparing for what likely will be one of their biggest crowds of the season. And, of course, teams are preparing for what surely will be one of their most memorable games.

But before all of that could begin, we met Sunday morning with nine maps of Michigan and 272 dots that needed to be organized to set another playoffs in motion.

As we’ve done the past five seasons, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2016 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions. For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2016.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were 218 automatic qualifiers by win total – only two more than the record low set a year ago – with the final 38 at-large qualifiers then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. For the second consecutive season there were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams from Class A and 11 each from Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2016

First things, first: Congratulations to five first-time playoff qualifiers  Bloomfield Hills, Detroit Delta Prep, Southfield Arts & Technology, Southfield Bradford and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian. Bloomfield Hills (Lahser and Andover) and Southfield Arts & Technology (Southfield and Southfield-Lathrup) were created by mergers of previous schools. Southfield A&T and Detroit Delta Prep are eligible for tournament play this season for the first time. Bradford and Tri-unity Christian both started programs during the latter half of the 2000s; Tri-unity qualified in 8-player after moving back to that format from 11-player this fall. Of 617 varsity football programs that played games this season (including five not eligible for the playoffs as either a first-year program or with an enrollment too high for 8-player), all but 18 have made the playoffs at least once going back to the first series in 1975.

Tie it up: We had a few ties in a few ways this season. In two situations, we had multiple teams with the same enrollment at a line between divisions. In those cases, the teams with the higher playoff point averages go to the larger divisions – so Ferndale went to Division 2 and East Lansing to Division 3 to settle one tie, and Lansing Sexton went to Division 4 and Dowagiac to Division 5 to settle the other. The additional tie came in 8-player football, with Portland St. Patrick and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian both having the same playoff point average, the same opponents’ winning percentage and drawn into the same District. A coin flip was used to determine St. Patrick as the top seed and home team both this week and next if it advances and plays the Defenders.

Local really is the rule: Division 3 provided us with a fine example to help show that we work to draw maps locally and beginning with the earliest rounds. There were at least three ways to separate the schools in Region 3 District 1: East Lansing, DeWitt, Fowlerville and Mason. DeWitt, as the westernmost of the group, could’ve been drawn southwest with R2D2’s Vicksburg, Battle Creek Harper Creek and Coldwater, replacing Chelsea. Doing so would’ve literally split the state’s regions down the middle along U.S. 127, which is a favorable picture. But protocol is to favor local matchups at the earliest rounds, and it just didn’t make sense to take DeWitt away from three schools mere minutes away when subbing it in for Chelsea would’ve created a wash in terms of travel for the other three teams in R2D2.

Sometimes, there’s no choice: But keeping a group of four local teams together often is impossible. Remember, 32 dots usually are spread out at least all over the Lower Peninsula. In Division 4, we had Grand Rapids Catholic Central, Wyoming Godwin Heights, Wyoming Kelloggsville and Grand Rapids South Christian stacked nicely along U.S. 131 – but had to send southernmost South Christian down with Benton Harbor, Three Rivers and Hudsonville Unity Christian because there was no other grouping for Allendale, which is about 20 miles west of Grand Rapids. Another incident of splitting up near-neighbors happened in Division 2; we had Lowell and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central next door to each other, but no other Grand Rapids area teams qualify. By only a few miles, Forest Hills Central is south of Lowell – so although the Rangers had shorter drives than Lowell to possible opponents both north and south, they went into a group with Portage Northern, Portage Central and Battle Creek Lakeview, and Lowell went north to join Greenville, Traverse City West and Traverse City Central.

Why coast to coast: It wasn’t lost on the committee that teams waking up looking at Lake Huron traveling to play on Lake Michigan isn’t the greatest scenario. But it was the best of the options, and we stayed consistent by setting up a possible two District trips across the Lower Peninsula. Tawas will journey to Maple City Glen Lake in Division 6 this week. With wins this week, Lincoln Alcona could end up heading to Frankfort for a Division 8 District Final. Those trips aren’t ideal, but they did allow us to keep northern Lower Peninsula teams together – and in reality, aren’t too different than when teams from the Lower Peninsula and Upper Peninsula match up the first week, as will be the case in Division 4 (Whitehall to Escanaba), Division 5 (Kalkaska to Menominee and Grayling to Kingsford), Division 6 (Charlevoix to Negaunee and Boyne City to Calumet) and Division 8 (Gaylord St. Mary to Newberry).

It’s just the math: The one unexpected oddity of this week’s matchups is Canton going back to Northville for the second week in a row, and after beating Northville 42-27 last week. But math does rule, and Northville does have a higher playoff point average despite that Week 9 loss; the Mustangs beat five teams that finished with winning records, while Canton beat three – which of course is no fault of the Chiefs. It's just the way – rarely – things work out.

At the end of the day …

In six years of being part of these discussions, this weekend’s at least seemed to be the most extensive. We had two and three versions of multiple divisions before deciding which we believed to be the best.

Only one division map – 8-player – was an absolute slam dunk. The rest received plenty of scrutiny from a committee that now includes veterans going back to the beginning but also has had some new eyes join in over the last couple of years. That variety of viewpoints certainly pays off.

And wow, did we fall into some incredible first-week matchups:

• 

Rockford and Hudsonville in a rematch of the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red-deciding game of Week 9 (a Hudsonville 14-7 win).

• 

Traverse City West vs. Traverse City Central for the first time in playoff history (Central won 10-8 in Week 3).

• 

Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook Kingswood at Detroit Country Day in a homecoming for longtime Yellowjackets coach Joe D’Angelo.

• 

Constantine at Schoolcraft in a matchup of longtime southwestern rivals (Schoolcraft won 20-10 in Week 8).

• 

Cedarville at Engadine in arguably the most intriguing of three all-U.P. 8-player matchups (Engadine won 52-42 in Week 7).

Truly, at the end of November, the best teams will have to beat the rest to finish as champions – regardless of maps, matchups, weather and anything else that won’t really factor into what eventually is settled on the field.

For many high school sports fans, it’s the favorite time of year. Join us now as we prepare for kickoff.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTOS: (Top) The Division 1 bracket mapped out on the Lower Peninsula. (Middle) The Division 3 map keeps four mid-Michigan teams together.

1st & Goal: 2024 Week 6 Preview

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

October 3, 2024

If Week 5 could be considered something of a bridge week for several football conferences across the state, this one likely will be the eventual decider as championships are wrapped up over the final month of the regular season. 

MI Student AidSeveral matchups, including three pitting undefeated teams detailed below, have the potential to set off league title celebrations that are almost always the primary goal when teams kick off every season. 

All games listed below are tonight unless noted, with results posting as they are reported all weekend on the MHSAA Scores page. Updated standings also are available by clicking the schools on the score list, and every division’s playoff points summary updates as well as scores are received.

Bay & Thumb

Almont (5-0) at Armada (5-0) WATCH

Armada has not given up a point in its four Blue Water Area Conference wins, and after opening with a 28-27 victory over a Marine City team that has since averaged 52 points per game. The Tigers will face their toughest offensive challenge since that win over the Mariners, as Almont is averaging nearly 42 points per game – and also giving up just under nine per contest. The last three meetings between these two have been decided by seven points or fewer, with Almont last year’s victor 13-12.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Corunna (5-0) at Goodrich (4-1) WATCH, East Lansing (3-2) at Davison (4-1), Grand Blanc (4-1) at Lapeer (4-1), Marysville (4-1) at Marine City (4-1).

Greater Detroit

Troy (3-2) at Birmingham Seaholm (5-0) WATCH

Seaholm has dominated since moving back into the Oakland Activities Association Blue in 2022, with a combined 22-5 record overall over the last three seasons and eight straight league wins as the Maples pursue a repeat title. They have won three straight over Troy, but the Colts avenged a 2023 loss to Oak Park last week 31-6 and have gotten a few looks at top competition with defeats to powerful Lake Orion and Pontiac Notre Dame Prep.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Clinton Township Clintondale (4-1) at Clawson (3-2) WATCH, Rochester Adams (4-1) at Oxford (3-2) WATCH, Lake Orion (4-1) at West Bloomfield (2-3) WATCH. SATURDAY Warren Michigan Collegiate (4-1) at Detroit Voyageur College Prep (4-1).

Mid-Michigan

Pewamo-Westphalia (5-0) at Fowler (5-0) WATCH

These two began their annual series in 1966, and according to Michigan-Football.com P-W leads it 30-28 – with wins last year (27-14) and eight of the last nine. This could again eventually decide the Central Michigan Athletic Conference title, especially with Fowler already having handed Saranac its lone loss. The Eagles also opened the season by handing Hudson what remains the Tigers’ lone defeat, and P-W opened by dealing North Muskegon what remains its only loss this fall. Neither Fowler nor the Pirates have given up a point since Week 2.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Pinconning (4-1) at Harrison (5-0) WATCH, Napoleon (3-2) at Leslie (5-0) WATCH, Mason (4-1) at St. Johns (5-0) WATCH, Grand Ledge (4-1) at Lansing Everett (4-1) WATCH.

Northern Lower Peninsula

Petoskey (5-0) at Cadillac (3-2) WATCH

The next two weeks will make or break Petoskey’s Big North Conference title hopes, and potentially Cadillac’s as well. The Northmen and Marquette lead the league with 3-0 starts, while Cadillac is 3-1, and Petoskey faces Marquette next week – meaning a Cadillac win in this matchup and a Petoskey win over the Sentinels would open up the possibility of a three-team title share (with Escanaba also involved in this mix). The Northmen have given up just 37 points total this fall and defeated Escanaba in Week 3. Cadillac fell to Midland and then Escanaba to open this season, by seven points apiece, before winning three straight.  

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Traverse City St. Francis (4-1) at Cheboygan (3-2) WATCH, East Jordan (3-2) at Mancelona (3-2), Midland (4-1) at Traverse City Central (2-3) WATCH. SATURDAY Kingsley (3-2) at Benzie Central (2-3) WATCH.

Southeast & Border

Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central (5-0) at Riverview (5-0) WATCH

For the second straight week, Riverview is playing in a premier matchup – and thanks to last week’s 52-45 win over previously-undefeated Flat Rock. That’s left these two tied for first in the Huron League and with opposing strengths set to face off. Riverview has topped 35 points in all five of its games and 50 the last three weeks, while SMCC hasn’t given up a point since Week 2 and just 22 total this fall. Also of note, the Falcons follow this weekend with a home game against Flat Rock.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Dexter (5-0) at Ann Arbor Pioneer (4-1) WATCH, Adrian Madison (4-1) at Hudson (4-1) WATCH, Toledo St. Francis de Sales, Ohio (5-1) at Jackson Lumen Christi (4-1) WATCH, Battle Creek Harper Creek (4-1) at Parma Western (4-1).

Southwest Corridor

Edwardsburg (4-1) at Paw Paw (5-0) WATCH

The Eddies are bouncing back nicely from last year’s 5-5 finish, and this will be their first opportunity to avenge a 2023 loss – in fact, two – as they fell to Paw Paw 35-0 and then 16-7 in the playoffs last fall. Edwardsburg’s lone loss this season came Week 2, by just seven points, to still-undefeated St. Joseph. Paw Paw’s surge started a year ago and has simply continued, as the Red Wolves opened with solid nonleague wins over Big Rapids and Berrien Springs – and, like Edwardsburg – have yet to be challenged much in three Wolverine Conference games.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Constantine (5-0) at Kalamazoo United (4-1), Portage Northern (4-1) at St. Joseph (5-0) WATCH, Bronson (4-1) at Union City (5-0), Lawton (4-1) at Schoolcraft (4-1) WATCH.

Upper Peninsula

Escanaba (3-2) at Marquette (4-1)

This rivalry is getting a massive boost with Escanaba already guaranteeing its best finish since 2019. Escanaba also will be playing for its first win over Marquette since 2017 and coming off its best back-to-back offensive performances (combining for 107 points) in more than a decade. Marquette has continued to build after finishing 3-6 in 2022 and 5-4 last year, with four shutouts this season and its only stumble in a Saturday game downstate at Lowell.  

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Gwinn (2-3) at Iron Mountain (5-0) WATCH, Negaunee (4-1) at Ishpeming Westwood (2-3) WATCH, Calumet (2-3) at Houghton (2-3), West Iron County (2-3) at Manistique (2-3) WATCH.

West Michigan

Holland Christian (5-0) at Grand Rapids Catholic Central (4-1)

Holland Christian is another of the best comeback stories in the state so far, with its five wins already the varsity’s most since 2018 and punctuated by last week’s 21-20 triumph over East Grand Rapids. That said, this will clearly be the Maroons’ most massive challenge yet. Grand Rapids Catholic Central’s loss to Pontiac Notre Dame Prep in Week 3 gains context by the week as undefeated NDP rumbles through its schedule.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Rockford (3-2) at Caledonia (4-1), Beal City (4-1) at Evart (4-1) WATCH, Pontiac Notre Dame Prep (5-0) at Reed City (4-1) WATCH, Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central (4-1) at Zeeland West (4-1) WATCH.

8-Player

Bellevue (4-1) at Mendon (5-0) WATCH

While Mendon hasn’t navigated a sub-.500 season since 2006, it’s fair to call this the Hornets’ most powerful start – at least statistically – in some time. The Hornets have absolutely dominated, scoring 54 or more points every game, 60 or more in four, and giving up 34 points total with three shutouts. Their best win likely was 66-14 over Britton Deerfield, which hasn’t lost otherwise. Enter Bellevue, which jumped from 0-9 two years ago to 6-3 last season and sits a three-point loss in Week 2 to Adrian Lenawee Christian from being undefeated as well. The Broncos have given up just 57 points this season and are coming off back-to-back 60-plus scoring performances.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Norway (4-1) at Munising (5-0) WATCH, Grand Rapids Sacred Heart (5-0) at St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic (4-1), Marion (5-0) at Suttons Bay (4-1) WATCH.

MHSAA.com's weekly “1st & Goal” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a division within the Department of Lifelong Education, Advancement, and Potential (MiLEAP). MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information. MI Student Aid administers the state’s scholarship and grant programs that help make college Accessible, Affordable and Attainable for you. Click to connect with MI Student Aid and find more information on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.

PHOTO Ishpeming's Grady Gauthier holds onto Indian River Inland Lakes' quarterback Aidan Fenstermaker's leg as he gets ready to dive into the end zone during Inland Lake's Week 5 win. (Photo by Cara Kamps.)