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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

St. Clair Shores Lakeview pulled away from Roseville 37-33.

1st & Goal: 2023 Week 3 Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

September 11, 2023

This weekend’s statewide football schedule didn’t include many of the matchups we circle every fall knowing they’ll be difference-makers by the time we get to the end of October.

MI Student Aid

Instead, Week 3 seemed to provide an opportunity to expect the unexpected – and indeed it was full of surprises.

We won’t call anything an upset this early in the season, but there were results we didn’t anticipate. We also watched losing streaks of 38 and 17 games come to an end, another contender for top team in the Upper Peninsula rise and a resurgent power next door to Grand Rapids continue its return to the elite. And those were just the start.

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Grand Blanc 53, Saginaw Heritage 33 The Hawks (2-1) rightfully are generating some buzz coming off their much-improved 2022 and solid start this fall. But Grand Blanc, after falling 41-13 to Grandville in its opener, clearly has found its footing going over 50 points both of the last two weeks with quarterback Jake Morrow running for three touchdowns and throwing for three more this time. Click for more from WJRT.

Watch list Croswell-Lexington 53, Armada 28 After tying for third in the Blue Water Area Conference last season, Croswell-Lexington (3-0) is among those setting the early pace after this win over last year’s co-champion Tigers (1-2). The Pioneer trailed 14-0 during the second quarter and 14-13 at halftime.

On the move Goodrich 34, Lake Fenton 15 The Martians (3-0) made it two straight over the Blue Devils (2-1) as Flint Metro League play got underway. Freeland 51, Essexville Garber 14 The Falcons are off to their fourth 3-0 start over the last five seasons and have won all four matchups with the Dukes (2-1) since they’ve been in the same Tri-Valley Conference division. Pinconning 23, Harrison 14 The Spartans (1-2) broke a 17-game losing streak going back to Week 3 of 2021, also avenging a 48-13 defeat last season to the Hornets (1-2).

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Clarkston 28, Rochester Adams 7 The Wolves may have put to rest notions they might be heading for a down season after an 0-2 start. After sharing the Oakland Activities Association Red championship with Adams and West Bloomfield last season – and also defeating the Highlanders by three in a Division 1 Regional Final – Clarkston joined West Bloomfield and Lake Orion this time among winners in OAA openers. The Wolves also should continue to benefit in playoff points from those first two losses, as both opponents remain undefeated. Click for more from the Oakland Press.

Watch list St. Clair Shores Lakeview 37, Roseville 33 Roseville (2-1) and its impressive start had been among the top stories of the first few weeks, and may continue to be moving forward as well. But Lakeview (2-1) is one of the top stories of this week after avenging last year’s 53-10 loss to the Panthers to open the Macomb Area Conference White schedule.

On the move Flat Rock 33, Carleton Airport 21 A week ago Airport (2-1) looked like the Huron League favorite after defeating reigning champ Riverview, but it might be Flat Rock (3-0) with its meeting with Riverview coming up in Week 5. Dearborn Divine Child 26, Milford 23 The Falcons (2-1) should continue to benefit from a season-opening loss to still-undefeated Parma Western and will get another nice boost as Milford was ranked No. 4 in Division 2 heading into the weekend. Bryce Young tossed to Tyler Eby with 29 seconds to play for the game-winner. Warren Michigan Collegiate 26, Detroit Country Day 20 While finishing a combined 21-5 over the last two seasons, Michigan Collegiate also took a loss both years from Country Day – but moved to 3-0 this time while handing the Yellowjackets (1-2) their second one-score defeat of the fall.

Iron Mountain's Alex Jayne prepares to pull in a pass from quarterback Ian Marttila that he runs into the end zone.

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER Pewamo-Westphalia 26, Laingsburg 7 The Pirates (2-1) have rebounded nicely from a three-point opening loss to still-undefeated North Muskegon, as they’ve opened Central Michigan Athletic Conference play 2-0 and still given up only 24 points total over three games. This win ran P-W’s streak against the Wolfpack (2-1) to 14 straight. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

Watch list Charlotte 35, Lansing Catholic 33 The Orioles (3-0) are coming off their best season since 2004, and the offense that averaged 33 points per game in getting them to 9-2 last fall is churning at 42 points per game through the first three.  

On the move New Lothrop 26, Clarkston Everest Collegiate 15 While a Week 2 loss to league opponent Chesaning stung, the Hornets do have an impressive pair of wins over teams in their playoff division with Everest having made the Division 8 Semifinals last season. Grand Ledge 41, Holt 13 The Comets avenged a 14-6 loss to Holt from a year ago that eventually led to Grand Ledge and the Rams sharing the Capital Area Activities Conference Blue title. Beal City 48, McBain 7 The Aggies (3-0) are pursuing a potential fourth-straight Highland Conference title and put McBain (2-1) a game back with the other two co-leaders coming up over the next three weeks.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Ogemaw Heights 56, Traverse City St. Francis 17 The Falcons (2-1) have been rising in a hurry over the last 13 months, and they are halfway to a possible Northern Michigan Football League Legends title with one of the annually more difficult obstacles out of the way. The reigning-champ Gladiators (1-2) had won their three recent matchups all by at least 21 points, including 42-19 last season. Click for more from the Bay City Times.

Watch list Charlevoix 26, Boyne City 13 The Rayders (2-1) appear the team to chase in the NMFL Leaders after handing Boyne City (2-1) its lone loss to avenge last year’s 42-14 defeat – which eventually clinched the league title for the Ramblers as Charlevoix ended up second.

On the move Manistee 20, Muskegon Oakridge 15 Bring on the Mariners (3-0) as the latest entrant into the West Michigan Conference Lakes race after they avenged last season’s 46-19 loss to always-contending Oakridge (1-2). Frankfort 27, Benzie Central 20 The NMFL Legacy-leading Panthers (3-0) picked up a nice nonleague win with two conference contests up next, but also notable is Benzie is 1-2 but with two losses by seven points or fewer as the Huskies look to challenge in the Leaders as well. Cadillac 14, Sault Ste. Marie 7 The Vikings (2-1) are 2-0 in Big North Conference play after a second seven-point win over a new league member from the old Great Northern Conference. The 14 points were the first given up by the Blue Devils (2-1).

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Jackson 50, Tecumseh 49 (OT) The Vikings (2-1) returned a kickoff for a touchdown to tie the score with 1:29 left in regulation, and after Tecumseh took the lead first in overtime came back to score and convert a 2-point conversion to win this Southeastern Conference White opener over the reigning champion. These two have combined for 85, 115 and now 99 points over their last three meetings. Click for more from JTV.

On the move Dexter 44, Temperance Bedford 0 The Dreadnaughts (1-2) were replacing some major star power this fall and faced an opening three games against teams that won at least eight last season. They bounced back from two losses to shut out the Kicking Mules (1-2), who were 8-3 in 2022.

On the move Grass Lake 40, Jonesville 32 The Warriors are 3-0 for the first time since 2020 and already halfway to last season’s 10-game scoring output after reaching 40 for the second time in three games. Addison 58, Leslie 14 The Panthers (3-0) have reached 50 points all three games this season and this time put up a number against a Leslie defense that had given up a combined 20 points over its opening two wins. Adrian 38, Ypsilanti Lincoln 30 The Maples are 3-0 for the first time since 2010 and are on pace for their highest offensive output since that season.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER Constantine 22, Lawton 10 Days after Lawton earned one of Week 2’s headlining victories over Traverse City St. Francis, Constantine bounced back from a Week 2 loss to make headlines as well. While the Falcons also had won last year’s meeting 47-21, the rematch was at Lawton – and the Blue Devils hadn’t lost at home since 2018. Click for more from the Kalamazoo Gazette.

Watch list Parchment 36, Galesburg-Augusta 14 Jalen Kampen ran for a touchdown and threw for three more as Parchment reached 3-0 for the first time since 2011 and avenged last season’s 40-0 loss to the Rams.

On the move Edwardsburg 28, Plainwell 0 After opening with two losses against tough nonleague teams, the Eddies (1-2) broke away against one of their most familiar rivals – and after winning last year’s matchup with the Trojans (1-2) only 25-21. Stevensville Lakeshore 33, Mattawan 26 The Lancers (2-1) have bounced back nicely from a tough opening loss to Zeeland West as they look to bounce back from last year’s 3-6 finish. Schoolcraft 33, Kalamazoo United 14 The Eagles head into this week’s rivalry game with Constantine at 3-0 for the second-straight season and this time coming off a big-time comeback as they entered the fourth quarter against the Titans (2-1) down 14-7.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Kingsford 35, Gladstone 12 Make that Kingsford as the possible top team in the Upper Peninsula this fall. A week after Gladstone moved to the front of the conversation with a win over Negaunee, the Flivvers avenged last season’s 34-20 loss to the Braves by putting up the most points Gladstone had given up since 2021. Kingsford gets Negaunee next with an opportunity to create a notable early lead in the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper. Click for more from the Iron Mountain Daily News.

Watch list Negaunee 20, Calumet 13 The Miners (2-1) bounced back from that Gladstone loss with this solid win against another regular at the top of the Copper standings.

On the move Iron Mountain 40, Ishpeming 6 As noted in previous weeks, the Mountaineers will be rivaling whichever Copper team emerges in that argument over the UP’s best, and they’ve outscored their first three opponents now by a combined 136-12. Houghton 28, Hancock 14 These two will meet again in Week 9, and the Gremlins now will bring a two-game winning streak into the neighborly rematch. West Iron County 22, L’Anse 0 The Wykons had managed to play only two games both of the last two seasons, but they’ve played all three this fall, with this their first win on the field since the 2020 regular-season finale.

West Michigan

HEADLINER East Grand Rapids 42, Lowell 14 The Pioneers (3-0) will have to keep proving it in an Ottawa-Kent Conference White that includes also-undefeated Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central, Northview and Byron Center among six teams total at 2-1 or better. But one more win will tie EGR’s best showing since 2020, and their work so far definitely ranks with their best since reaching the Division 3 Regional Finals that fall. Lowell (2-1) also should continue to play a major role as this league race unfolds. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.

Watch list Grand Rapids West Catholic 17, Coopersville 14 The Falcons (3-0) passed this major test to start O-K Blue play and with Hudsonville Unity Christian and Spring Lake coming up. Coopersville is 2-1 and sees those two also over the next two weeks.

On the move Allegan 21, Kalamazoo Loy Norrix 14 The Tigers (3-0) have won no more than three games since 2011, and that was last fall – but they’ve equaled that total already this season. Hudsonville 17, East Kentwood 14 The Eagles (3-0) also have equaled their win total from a year ago and have the potential for much more coming off a second-straight victory over a 2022 playoff qualifier. Spring Lake 34, Hudsonville Unity Christian 28 The Lakers (3-0) are in the same conversation after last season’s 3-6 finish, and they’ve won all three of their games by scores of 34-28 – and all against teams that made the playoffs last fall.

8-Player

HEADLINER Bridgman 14, Martin 12 This has the looks of a rivalry in the making. After three Martin wins from 2018-20, the Bees have won the last two seasons – last year by a point and now this time by two to take a key first step in the Southwest Michigan 8-Man Football League White. This was the league opener for both; Bridgman is 3-0 overall and Martin fell to 2-1.

Watch list Brown City 38, Kingston 20 The Green Devils (3-0) ended Kingston’s regular-season winning streak at 12 in what likely will be a key matchup when the North Central Thumb League Stars race eventually shakes out.

On the move Caseville 38, Kinde North Huron 12 The Eagles (1-2) ended a 38-game losing streak dating to 2018, while North Huron fell to 0-3 this fall. Akron-Fairgrove 36, Peck 28 The Vikings (2-1) downed the Pirates (1-2) for the first time since 1993 after a stretch of 17 defeats. Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart 21, Portland St. Patrick 20 Sacred Heart closed last season with a win over the Shamrocks, and at 3-0 this fall the Irish are one win away from equaling their 2022 total.

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PHOTOS (Top) St. Clair Shores Lakeview's Keonte Woolf (6) pulls away from a Roseville defender Friday. (Middle) Iron Mountain's Alex Jayne prepares to pull in a pass from quarterback Ian Marttila that he'll run into the end zone. (Top photo Chris Mudd/National Photo Scout. Middle photo by Cara Kamps.)