Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

1st & Goal: 2023 Week 3 Preview

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

September 7, 2023

After two weeks of high anticipation to begin this football season, we’ve moved into the grind as several leagues begin play this weekend and contenders hope to take the first steps toward potentially celebrating a local championship next month.

It’s also not too late to bounce back from a tough start. Of 288 Michigan varsity teams that opened with losses during Week 1, 129 rebounded to win in Week 2. We’ll likely see many more find their footing over the next two days.

The majority of games across the state this weekend will be broadcast on MHSAA.tv and viewable with subscription, with results updated as those games conclude on the MHSAA Scores page.

Here’s a look at some of the matchups that may end up mattering most as this season rumbles on:

MI Student Aid

Bay & Thumb

Goodrich (2-0) at Lake Fenton (2-0)

With impressive wins over Frankenmuth and Linden over the last two weeks, Goodrich is off to an even more notable start than last season when it finished Division 4 runner-up. This one kicks off Flint Metro League Stars play with a rematch of the Martians’ only close league game from a year ago – they edged Lake Fenton 14-7 to lock up the outright title. The Blue Devils have outscored their first two opponents this season by a combined 93-6 as they look to rebound from last year’s 3-6 finish.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Croswell-Lexington (2-0) at Armada (1-1), Freeland (2-0) at Essexville Garber (2-0), Saginaw Heritage (2-0) at Grand Blanc (1-1), Bad Axe (1-1) at Harbor Beach (2-0).

Greater Detroit

Detroit Pershing (2-0) at Detroit Denby (2-0)

With Cass Tech, Martin Luther King and lately Central getting most of the pub, Denby’s success over the last decade often isn’t noted enough; the Tars have nine winning seasons and eight playoff appearances over the last 10 years. They’ve also shut out their first two opponents this fall as they begin Detroit Public School League Gold play. Pershing, meanwhile, is 2-0 for the first time since 2012 and last week defeated Madison Heights Bishop Foley to avenge a 41-point loss in 2022.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Rochester Adams (2-0) at Clarkston (0-2), New Lothrop (1-1) at Clarkston Everest Collegiate (1-1), Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (1-1) at Utica Eisenhower (2-0). SATURDAY Detroit Country Day (1-1) at Warren Michigan Collegiate (2-0).

Mid-Michigan

Pewamo-Westphalia (1-1) at Laingsburg (2-0)

The Wolfpack’s drive this season certainly must be substantial after just missing the playoffs last year despite a 6-3 record. Paced by senior Jack Borgman, Laingsburg opened by avenging last season’s loss to Durand and will now seek to defeat the Pirates for the first time since 2009 after missing by just seven points a year ago. P-W bounced back from a three-point loss to North Muskegon in its opener to shut out Bath last week.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Northville (2-0) at Brighton (1-1), Lansing Catholic (1-1) at Charlotte (2-0), Grand Ledge (2-0) at Holt (1-1), Olivet (0-2) at Lansing Sexton (2-0).

Northern Lower Peninsula

Marquette (1-1) at Gaylord (2-0), Saturday

League realignments over the last few years have led to some different trips for teams in the northern half of the Lower Peninsula – see Traverse City Central welcoming Davison in the Saginaw Valley League this weekend and this Marquette drive along with Sault Ste. Marie’s to Cadillac in the newest version of the Big North Conference. Gaylord is 2-0 for the second-straight season, but last year saw that momentum paused with a 17-14 Week 3 loss to Marquette. Marquette is coming off a 49-0 win over Alpena after falling to the Wildcats by two a year ago.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Frankfort (2-0) at Benzie Central (1-1), Sault Ste. Marie (2-0) at Cadillac (1-1), Boyne City (2-0) at Charlevoix (1-1), Davison (2-0) at Traverse City Central (1-1).

Southeast & Border

Carleton Airport (2-0) at Flat Rock (2-0)

The Huron League and Carleton Airport headlines this section of the state for the second week in a row, this time after the Jets avenged their 2022 loss to league champion Riverview with a 48-27 win. Flat Rock gave Airport a mighty challenge last season as well, with the Jets prevailing only 21-19 but the Rams going on to finish 8-4 – their winningest since 1976. Flat Rock is off to another solid start with victories over Dundee and Grosse Ile, both playoff teams as well in 2022.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Leslie (2-0) at Addison (2-0), Temperance Bedford (1-1) at Dexter (0-2), Hillsdale (1-1) at Hudson (2-0), Clinton (1-1) at Ida (1-1).

Southwest Corridor

Kalamazoo Central (1-0) at St. Joseph (1-1)

The Maroon Giants celebrated their first win in two seasons last week, downing 2022 playoff qualifier Sturgis 47-34 to break an 11-game losing streak. St. Joseph won this matchup big a year ago and has taken 12 straight since Central’s most recent victory in the series in 2004. However, the Bears are seeking to gain momentum to start September; they were shut out by Niles in their opener and didn’t get to play last week after receiving a forfeit win from Detroit Henry Ford.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY White Pigeon (2-0) at Decatur (1-1), Constantine (1-1) at Lawton (2-0), Jackson Lumen Christi (2-0) at Richland Gull Lake (2-0), SATURDAY Kalamazoo United (2-0) at Schoolcraft (2-0).

Upper Peninsula

Gladstone (2-0) at Kingsford (2-0)

Gladstone has opened with a pair of wins over Marquette and Negaunee that puts the Braves back in the discussion for best in the Upper Peninsula. But this week they face another challenger – one that’s also familiar but under changed circumstances. Gladstone and Kingsford were past Great Northern Conference football foes who both moved to the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper this fall, and the Flivvers actually had won 23 straight in this series before Gladstone’s 34-20 victory last season. Kingsford has yet to give up a point.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Houghton (0-2) at Hancock (1-1), Iron Mountain (2-0) at Ishpeming (1-1), Calumet (1-1) at Negaunee (1-1), Ishpeming Westwood (0-2) at Menominee (2-0).

West Michigan

Lowell (2-0) at East Grand Rapids (2-0)

For most of the 2000s, this was one of the spotlight games every season not only in the Grand Rapids area, but often statewide. The buzz has cooled some the last few years but could be building again. Lowell posted its first winning season last fall since 2017. East Grand Rapids is seeking its first since 2020 and last week downed reigning Division 4 champion Grand Rapids South Christian 23-21. The Pioneers edged the Red Arrows 15-14 a year ago.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Grand Rapids West Catholic (2-0) at Coopersville (2-0), Manistee (2-0) at Muskegon Oakridge (1-1), Wayland (2-0) at Grand Rapids Catholic Central (1-1), Muskegon Reeths-Puffer (2-0) at Muskegon Mona Shores (1-1).

8-Player

Bridgman (2-0) at Martin (2-0)

This is a rematch of one of the most memorable 8-player games from last season, as Bridgman’s 35-34 win in Week 9 finished off its second-straight perfect season. The Bees’ enrollment is too high for the team to qualify for the 8-player playoffs, however, and Martin went on to finish 11-2 and an overpowering Division 1 champion after winning all of its playoff games by at least 34 points. This season has started similarly as the Clippers have outscored their first two opponents by a combined 117-6 and Bridgman has put up 90 points over its first two games. This meeting takes on extra meaning as well as a switch put these two in the same division of the Southwest Michigan 8-Man Football League this fall.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY St. Ignace (2-0) at Alcona (2-0), Kingston (2-0) at Brown City (2-0), Newberry (2-0) at Rudyard (2-0). SATURDAY Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart (2-0) at Portland St. Patrick (2-0).

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PHOTO Harper Woods pulled away from Rochester Hills Stoney Creek 34-21 in Week 1. (Photo by Olivia B. Photography.)