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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Hudsonville’s Bryce Fox (9) emerges from the grasp of multiple Howell defenders Saturday.

1st & Goal: 2024 Playoffs Week 3 Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

November 18, 2024

We’ve rounded the final turn toward the finish of this 2024 football season.

MI Student AidAll four 8-player finalists are decided, and we lead off today’s “Review” with a look back and how they earned their trips this weekend to Northern Michigan University’s Superior Dome.

We also glanced at all 32 Regional Finals in the 11-player bracket as those winners pulled within one more victory of booking Thanksgiving weekend at Ford Field.

8-Player Division 1

HEADLINER Pickford 34, Indian River Inland Lakes 18 This proved to be Pickford’s closest game so far this season, but the Panthers (12-0) advanced to their first MHSAA Final since 2019 when they won Division 1 – and also avenged a 12-0 Semifinal loss to Inland Lakes from a year ago. Pickford did so by holding the Bulldogs (11-1) well below its average of 53 points per game heading into the weekend. Click for more from WLUC.

HEADLINER Deckerville 49, Mendon 32 Mendon scored first and trailed by only three at halftime, but Deckerville outscored the Hornets 20-6 over the final two quarters. The Eagles (12-0) slowed down a Mendon rushing attack that hadn’t run into too many obstacles this season, and Deckerville quarterback Hunter Garza ran for 228 yards and three touchdowns and threw for two fourth-quarter scores. Click for more from the Huron Daily Tribune.

8-Player Division 2

HEADLINER Crystal Falls Forest Park 49, Onekama 24 The Trojans are headed back to the Finals for the first time since winning Division 2 in 2017. Forest Park put up more points than Onekama had given up in a game this season and held the Portagers (10-2) to eight fewer than their season average. Click for more from the Iron Mountain Daily News.

HEADLINER Morrice 36, Britton Deerfield 0 Morrice (11-1) dominated on both sides of the ball and with Wyatt Cartier finding the end zone from his positions on offense and defense, running for three scores and returning an interception for a fourth. The Patriots (10-2) were averaging 53 points per game entering the weekend. Click for more from the Lansing Herald.

11-Player Division 1

HEADLINER Detroit Catholic Central 35, Belleville 21 As anticipated, and evidenced by the sizable crowd filling the stands, this was a game many had hoped to see for some time – and they watched DCC (12-0) win its first Regional title since 2017 while ending the career of one of the most accomplished players in MHSAA football history. Belleville (10-2) finished a combined 50-4 with three trips to Ford Field and two Division 1 titles during quarterback Bryce Underwood’s four seasons on varsity. Click for more from the Oakland Press.

Regional Roundup Hudsonville 35 Howell 6 The Eagles (11-1) won their first Regional title since 2005 and ended Howell’s winningest season at 11-1, holding the Highlanders scoreless until the fourth quarter. Rochester Adams 21, Grand Blanc 14 Adams (10-2) improved to a combined 9-3 in the playoffs over the last four seasons by winning its first Regional title since 2021. Grand Blanc finished 9-3, its defeats by a combined 10 points. Detroit Cass Tech 21, Macomb Dakota 14 Alex Graham snagged the game-winning touchdown pass above two defenders with 19 seconds to play to lead Cass Tech (10-2) to its second Regional title in three seasons. Dakota finished 10-2.

11-Player Division 2

HEADLINER Birmingham Groves 21, Warren De La Salle Collegiate 19 Groves (12-0) took a seven-point lead into halftime and a one-point advantage into the fourth quarter on the way to claiming its second Regional title in three seasons. The Falcons’ victory also meant the end of De La Salle’s four-year streak of reaching Ford Field; the Pilots (8-3) were Division 2 runners-up a year ago. Click for more from the Detroit Free Press.

Regional Roundup Byron Center 52, Portage Central 14 Byron Center (11-1) won its first Regional championship and set a program record for wins, taking the next step after falling in a Regional Final last year. Portage Central finished 8-4 after winning its first District title since 2021. East Lansing 49, Saginaw Heritage 27 East Lansing (9-3) repeated as a Regional champion by scoring more points than Heritage (8-4) had given up in a game since Week 3 of the 2023 season. Orchard Lake St. Mary’s 27, Gibraltar Carlson 3 St. Mary’s (9-3) won its first Regional title since 2016, thanks in part to holding the Marauders (10-2) to 39 points below their average and single digits for the first time since 2022.  

East Lansing’s Jace Clarizio (0) works to break the tackle of Saginaw Heritage’s Anthony Fries.

11-Player Division 3

HEADLINER Zeeland West 36, Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central 20 West (11-1) repeated as a Regional winner and this time ended the season for the reigning Division 3 champion, after having lost to FHC 18-14 in the Semifinal a year ago that sent the Rangers to Ford Field. The Dux also had won their regular-season meeting in Week 6, as FHC finished this fall 9-3. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.

Regional Roundup Mason 22, Walled Lake Western 17 After falling to Western 20-17 in Week 8, Mason (10-2) avenged to clinch its fourth-straight Regional title and end the Warriors season at 11-1. DeWitt 70, Petoskey 34 DeWitt (12-0) ended Petoskey’s longest playoff run since 2014 by tying its highest-scoring output this fall – and moving into a tie for eighth all-time for single-season scoring by an 11-player team, with 682 points. The Northmen finished 11-1. Detroit Martin Luther King 34, River Rouge 0 King (9-3) ran its Regional title streak to four with a fourth-straight season defeating Rouge during the playoffs since falling to the Panthers (6-5) in a 2020 Regional Final.

11-Player Division 4

HEADLINER Niles 37, Portland 34 Niles (11-1) not only avenged last season’s 21-14 loss to Portland in this round, but in doing so won its first Regional title and set a program record for wins for the second-straight season. Portland is a combined 43-7 over the last four after completing its fourth-straight double-digit finish at 11-1 as well. Click for more from the Niles Daily Star.

Regional Roundup Grand Rapids South Christian 28, Whitehall 21 In another one-score Regional Final, Whitehall (8-4) came back to get within striking distance but fell to the Sailors in a Regional Final by this score for the second time in three seasons. South Christian (8-4) needs one more win to reach Ford Field for a third-straight year. Goodrich 42, Haslett 13 Goodrich (11-1) repeated in winning this Regional Final matchup from a year ago as well, controlling the line to run for five touchdowns and adding a sixth on a turnover. Haslett finished 8-4 after beginning 1-3, and with three losses this season to teams playing in Semifinals. Harper Woods 48, Macomb Lutheran North 3 The reigning champion is one win from returning to Ford Field, as Harper Woods (9-3) held Lutheran North to 30 points fewer than its season average. The Mustangs set a program record for wins in finishing 10-2.

Goodrich’s Chase Burnett (25) takes on a pair of Haslett defenders.

11-Player Division 5

HEADLINER Grand Rapids Catholic Central 21, Kalamazoo United 14 Dale Gant’s touchdown with 3:04 to play was the decider as Catholic Central (8-4) claimed a ninth-straight Regional title. United finished 9-3, with its highest win total since 2018 and two of those losses to opponents still playing. Click for more from Michigan Sports Radio.

Regional Roundup Frankenmuth 35, Gladwin 0 The Eagles (12-0) added a second win over Gladwin (8-4) over the last four weeks to clinch a fifth-straight Regional championship. Pontiac Notre Dame Prep 45, Armada 19 In winning their first Regional title, the Fighting Irish (10-1) tied their school record for wins. Armada (10-2) also set a school record for wins this fall. Flat Rock 41, Ann Arbor Father Gabriel Richard 0 Flat Rock won a second-straight Regional title with its second shutout this season. FGR finished 7-5 after winning its first District title since 2012.

11-Player Division 6

HEADLINER Lansing Catholic 49, Newaygo 36 Lansing Catholic (9-3) is another team that has entered the spotlight these playoffs, with three wins over opponents that entered those matchups a combined 26-4. The Cougars took advantage of turnovers to get a quick jump this time and followed quarterback Alex Fernandez to their second Regional title in four seasons. Newaygo finished its winningest since 2012 at 9-3. Click for more from MLIVE.

Regional Roundup Boyne City 34, Reed City 21 Boyne City (10-2) rushed to its first Regional title since 2014 on the legs of Owen Hewitt, who scored four touchdowns. Reed City finished 9-3, reaching nine wins for the fifth-straight season. Jackson Lumen Christi 42, Constantine 6 Last season’s Division 7 champion is enjoying similar success in Division 6 as Lumen Christi (11-1) is seeking to make the Ford Field trip for the third-straight year. Constantine finished 8-4. Marine City 52, Detroit Central 26 Marine City (10-2) downed Central for the second time in four weeks after previously defeating the Trailblazers (8-4) in Week 9, 37-15. The Regional title was the Mariners’ second in four seasons.

11-Player Division 7

HEADLINER North Muskegon 23, Menominee 0 North Muskegon made the long drive to the western Upper Peninsula, which allowed additional time to celebrate one of the most notable wins in recent program history. The Norsemen (11-1) claimed their second-straight Regional title and avenged last year’s Semifinal loss to Menominee (10-2), which ended up finishing Division 7 runner-up. This time, North Muskegon shut down a Maroons offense that was averaging 45.5 points per game and put 32 on the Norsemen last season. Click for more from the Muskegon Chronicle.

Regional Roundup Millington 28, Pewamo-Westphalia Defense also was the story in this matchup, as the Cardinals (12-0) posted their fifth shutout this fall, holding the Pirates (9-3) without a point for the first time since 2012. Schoolcraft 28, Hudson 16 Schoolcraft (11-1) will play in the Semifinals for the first time since 2020 after taking the lead during the closing minute of the first half and holding off the Tigers (10-2) the rest of the way. Hudson entered the game giving up only 8.4 points per game and hadn’t allowed more than 17. Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 55, Leslie 18 St. Mary (12-0) won its first Regional title since 2019 as it continued to surge offensively – the Falcons topped 50 points for the second time this season and also second week in a row. Leslie finished its first winning season since 2012 at 10-2, totaling one more win than the last three seasons combined.

Fowler’s Joe Epkey (78) wraps up a Harbor Beach ball carrier Saturday. 

11-Player Division 8

HEADLINER Fowler 25, Harbor Beach 7 Fowler (12-0) has impressed all season and now will play in a Semifinal for the first time since 2019. But this might have been the Eagles’ best win so far this fall. Fowler held a Pirates offense averaging 44 points per game to a single score and put 25 points on a defense that was giving up just 5.5 ppg entering the weekend. Harbor Beach finished 11-1, its best since 2018. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

Regional Roundup Beal City 14, Iron Mountain 7 Beal City (10-2) also handed the lone loss of this season to its opponent, traveling to Iron Mountain to win its second-straight Regional title and third in four seasons. The Aggies also defeated the Mountaineers (11-1) in a 2023 Regional Final. Decatur 41, Reading 0 Decatur (11-1) claimed its first Regional title since 2002, continuing a tremendous improvement from 4-5 a year ago. The Raiders have given up only 13 points over three playoff games. Reading finished 7-5, also a considerable turnaround from 2-7 last fall. Riverview Gabriel Richard 30, Detroit Loyola 12 RGR (10-1) was another repeat Regional champion, and this time set a program record for wins in adding a second this fall over Loyola (5-7). The Pioneers also had defeated Loyola 29-8 in Week 5.

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PHOTOS (Top) Hudsonville’s Bryce Fox (9) emerges from the grasp of multiple Howell defenders Saturday. (2) East Lansing’s Jace Clarizio (0) works to break the tackle of Saginaw Heritage’s Anthony Fries. (3) Goodrich’s Chase Burnett (25) takes on a pair of Haslett defenders. (4) Fowler’s Joe Epkey (78) wraps up a Harbor Beach ball carrier Saturday. (Top and East Lansing/Heritage photos by L.C. Arreguin/Team Arreguin Photos. Goodrich/Haslett photo by Terry Lyons. Fowler/Harbor Beach photo by Kolleth Photo.)