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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Haslett defenders bring down a Goodrich ball carrier stretching for extra yardage Friday.

1st & Goal: 2023 Playoff Week 3 Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

November 13, 2023

Seven of last season’s MHSAA Football Finals champions remain in the playoff mix as we move into the final two weeks of the 2023 season, and no doubt at least a few of the annual contenders have become accustomed to playing this late into the fall.

MI Student AidBut plenty more also are sharing in the thrill of playing mid-November football for the first time.

This weekend’s 8-Player Semifinals sent Indian River Inland Lakes into its first championship game in this sport, and Marion to its first since 1990. The 11-player brackets saw five first-time champions Regional champions – and two more that won Regional titles for the first time since well before any of their current players were born.

See below for a glance at all 72 games as the ride continued through the playoffs' third week, and click here for the full playoff schedule (including linked schedules for all 288 teams in the field this season).

8-Player Division 1

HEADLINER Indian River Inland Lakes 12, Pickford 0 Inland Lakes (11-1) earned its first trip to a football championship game with yet another impressive win – the Bulldogs’ last four opponents finished a combined 33-9. The shutout came against an offense that averaged 46.5 points per game entering the weekend. Pickford finished 10-2, its best since its 2019 championship season. Click for more from the Cheboygan Daily Tribune.

HEADLINER Martin 42, Kingston 34 The reigning Division 1 champion will play for a repeat as Martin outlasted Kingston in its closest matchup since back-to-back losses in Weeks 3 and 4. The Clippers (10-2) hadn’t had a single-digit game since, but stayed a step ahead by reaching 40 points for the third time over the last four weeks. Kingston (9-3) is a combined 18-4 over the last two seasons. Click for more from the Kalamazoo Gazette.

8-Player Division 2

HEADLINER Marion 42, Lake Linden-Hubbell 36 Playing in a fourth-straight Semifinal, Marion (11-0) earned its first championship game trip since 1990, coming back from a 14-8 halftime deficit as both offenses found their footing over the final two quarters. Marion’s final touchdown – which ended up the deciding score – was run in by an offensive lineman who stepped back into his former position. Lake Linden-Hubbell (8-4) finished its winningest season since 2016. Click for more from Cadillac News.

HEADLINER Adrian Lenawee Christian 42, Deckerville 14 Another dominating Lenawee Christian run continued, as the Cougars (12-0) pulled within one more win of a third undefeated season over the last four. They have not scored fewer than 41 points in a game this fall, and were able to slow a Deckerville offense that entered the weekend averaging 48.5 ppg. The Eagles (9-3) capped their winningest season since 2019. Click for more from the Adrian Daily Telegram.

11-Player Division 1

HEADLINER Davison 28, Rockford 14 The Cardinals won this Regional Final matchup of undefeated teams, doing so in part thanks to arguably its most impressive defensive performance of the fall. Davison (12-0) held Rockford scoreless until midway through the third quarter, limiting an attack that averaged nearly 43 points per game entering the weekend. The Cardinals also found their way offensively against a Rams defense that had given up only 10 points per game during its 11-0 start. Click for more from the Flint Journal.

Regional Roundup Belleville 49, Northville 7 Belleville (12-0) won a sixth-straight Regional title by adding to a 42-0 Week 9 win over Northville (10-2) in the Kensington Lakes Activities Association championship game. Those were the Mustangs’ only losses this fall. West Bloomfield 21, Clarkston 20 The Lakers (10-2) may be talking about this one for years to come, as they trailed Clarkston 20-0 before coming back to not only claim a Regional title but avenge their Week 6 loss to the Wolves (6-6). Southfield Arts & Technology 31, Clinton Township Chippewa Valley 21 A&T (11-1) clinched its first Regional title since the school opened in 2016 after a merger of the former Southfield High and Southfield-Lathrup, and this was the school community’s first Regional championship including those predecessor programs since 2014. Chippewa Valley (9-3) capped its winningest season since 2019 with its three defeats by a combined 14 points.

11-Player Division 2

HEADLINER Waterford Mott 40 Gibraltar Carlson 19 A special season for Mott just became historic, as the Corsairs (10-2) – after winning their second District title in program history last week – claimed their first Regional championship and also set a program record for wins. Kalieb Osborne threw for three touchdowns and ran for two more for Mott. Carlson finished 10-2 and sets its program record for wins as well this fall. Click for more from the Oakland Press.

Regional Roundup Muskegon 42, Saginaw Heritage 14 Muskegon (10-2) earned its seventh Regional championship over the last eight seasons. Heritage (9-3) finished its winningest season since 2006, with Braylon Isom adding two more receiving touchdowns to his MHSAA career record that ended at 52. East Lansing 42, Byron Center 20 East Lansing (10-2) is on its way to the Semifinals for the first time since 2007 after breaking away during the fourth quarter against the Bulldogs (10-2), who completed their longest run since 2016. Warren De La Salle Collegiate 34, Roseville 14 The reigning Division 2 champion Pilots (10-2) won their sixth Regional title over the last seven seasons, ending the fall for Roseville (8-4) for the fourth-straight season.

11-Player Division 3

HEADLINER Mason 44, Walled Lake Western 41 (OT) This matchup was up for grabs until the very end before Mason secured a third-straight Regional title. Western (10-2) nearly avenged Mason’s 30-7 win over the Warriors in Week 8; the Bulldogs (12-0) led at halftime, then trailed by double digits much of the third quarter, and then Western sent the game to overtime before Mason’s Kaleb Parrish scored the game winner on a pass from Cason Carswell. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

Regional Roundup Detroit Martin Luther King 20, River Rouge 19 (OT) The two-time reigning champion Crusaders (7-5) pulled a win closer to possibly playing for a third-straight title, holding on into overtime as well to end Rouge’s six-game winning streak and season at 7-5. Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central 33, Gaylord 7 Last season’s Division 2 runner-up Forest Hills Central (11-1) also is one win away from a potential return to Ford Field after handing Gaylord (11-1) its only loss. The Blue Devils capped their best season since 2002. Zeeland West 42, Parma Western 7 West is headed back to the Semifinals for the first time since 2015, giving the Ottawa-Kent Conference Green two of the final 32 teams (with Muskegon). Western finished 10-2, having tied its program record for wins with its third District title victory over the last six years.

11-Player Division 4

HEADLINER Portland 21, Niles 14 Portland (12-0) broke free from a 7-7 game heading into the fourth quarter to win its second Regional title in three seasons. Both defenses shined, holding their opponents to season lows. Niles’ only other defeat was by a point in Week 2 as the Vikings (10-2) capped their best run with a program record for wins and first District title. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

Regional Roundup Goodrich 24, Haslett 17 The 2022 Division 4 runner-up Martians (11-1) pulled within one more win of playing for the title again, twice holding off Haslett comeback attempts after building double-digit leads. The Vikings (8-4) capped their longest run since 2005. Grand Rapids South Christian 55, Big Rapids 35 The reigning champion Sailors (9-3) scored their most points since opening weekend to distance themselves from a Big Rapids team that finished its winningest season since 2003 at 10-2. Harper Woods 46, Carleton Airport 19 Harper Woods (9-3) claimed its first Regional title as it continued its best season since 2007. Airport’s only losses this fall in finishing 10-2 were to teams playing in Semifinals. (See Week 3 opponent Flat Rock below.)

11-Player Division 5

HEADLINER Grand Rapids Catholic Central 30, Grand Rapids West Catholic 28 The was the closest matchup between these longtime rivals since 2017, as West Catholic took a 28-24 lead with 3:49 to play but GRCC’s Connor Wolf then ran in for the winning score to go with his two touchdown passes. The Regional title was the eighth straight for the Cougars (11-1). The Falcons finished 11-1 coming off their Division 6 title in 2022. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.

Regional Roundup Flat Rock 56, Detroit Southeastern 26 Flat Rock (9-3) is another first-time Regional champion, earning its first trip to the Semifinals since 1976 (when the MHSAA Playoffs were only two rounds). Southeastern finished 8-4, its winningest record since also going 8-4 in 2018. Corunna 56, Macomb Lutheran North 18 Corunna (12-0) topped 300 yards rushing and 400 yards of total offense in winning its first Regional championship since 1996. Lutheran North capped arguably the best bounce-back season in the state this season, going from 3-6 a year ago to a 9-3 with a first District championship and school record for wins. Frankenmuth 35, Kingsford 13 Frankenmuth won its fourth-consecutive Regional title, scoring the most points Kingsford (10-2) allowed this season and holding the Flivvers to 176 total yards and -6 rushing. Kingsford capped its winningest season since 2004.

11-Player Division 6

HEADLINER Ovid-Elsie 38, Constantine 25 From the division that seemed heading into the weekend like perhaps the most wide-open, Ovid-Elsie (8-4) may have earned the biggest stunner of the Regional Finals. The Marauders were just 3-4 with two regular-season games to go but have won their first Regional title since 2008 and by handing Constantine (10-2) it first loss since Week 2. Click for more from the Kalamazoo Gazette.

Regional Roundup Kingsley 51, Gladstone 27 Kingsley (10-2) is headed back to the Semifinals for the first time since 2019 as the offense raised its scoring average to nearly 49 points per game by going over 50 for the fourth time over the last five weeks. Gladstone finished 9-3 for the second-straight season. Reed City 28, Midland Bullock Creek 14 The Coyotes (9-3) have won eight straight games to reach the Semifinals for the second-straight season, this time ending Bullock Creek’s longest playoff run since 2005. The Lancers finished 8-4 coming off two straight 4-5 seasons. Almont 49, Detroit Edison 24 Almont (11-1) also is back in the Semifinals for the first time since 2019 after ending Edison’s longest playoff run and winningest season at 8-4 with a first District title.

11-Player Division 7

HEADLINER North Muskegon 28, Pewamo-Westphalia 27 North Muskegon led through the first half, then trailed until late, but scored last to secure its first Regional title since 1986. These two also had met in a season opener, the Norsemen (12-0) winning that one 17-14, and this time QB James Young scrambled back-and-forth nearly the width of the field to find Landon Christensen on the game winner with 1:21 to play. P-W finished 10-2, both losses to North Muskegon by that margin of four total points. Click for more from the Muskegon Chronicle.

Regional Roundup Jackson Lumen Christi 21, Clinton 14 The reigning Division 7 champion will play in its seventh Semifinal in eight seasons after advancing from one of its only close matchups this fall. Clinton (10-2) led 8-7 at halftime before Lumen (11-1) moved ahead halfway through the third quarter and held off a late comeback attempt. Menominee 40, McBain 0 Menominee (10-2) won its first Regional championship since 2016 and is the final Upper Peninsula team playing this fall after posting its fifth shutout this season and fourth-straight game giving up 14 or fewer points. McBain ended its longest run since 2015 at 7-5. Millington 35, Montrose 15 Millington claimed its first Regional title since 2016 and set a school record for wins as Dallas Walsh raced to four touchdown runs. Montrose’s 8-4 record ran its streak of winning seasons to 14.

11-Player Division 8

HEADLINER Ubly 41, Ithaca 20 Ubly’s profile already was pretty high entering this season with two Division 8 championship game appearances over the last three seasons, and it no doubt grew with this win over the Yellowjackets (11-1) – who were also undefeated and considered a title contender. The Regional title was the fifth straight for the Bearcats (12-0). Click for more from the Huron Daily Tribune.

Regional Roundup Beal City 20, Iron Mountain 6 Beal City (11-1) still has given up only 95 points this season, and it slowed down an Iron Mountain offense that scored 50 per game during its 11-0 start. Ottawa Lake Whiteford 54, White Pigeon 6 Another meeting of undefeated contenders saw the reigning Division 8 champion Bobcats (12-0) score nearly half the 109 points that White Pigeon (11-1) allowed this season. Riverview Gabriel Richard 31, Clarkston Everest Collegiate 28 Gabriel Richard (8-4) also was 3-4 with two regular-season games to play and joined the first-time Regional champions, handing Everest (9-3) its first loss since Week 3.

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PHOTO Haslett defenders bring down a Goodrich ball carrier stretching for extra yardage Friday. (Photo by Terry Lyons.)