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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Detroit Cass Tech’s Alex Graham pulls away for a touchdown against Detroit Martin Luther King at Ford Field.

1st & Goal: 2024 Week 8 Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

October 21, 2024

This forecast for late October never fails:

MI Student AidAs expected, championships were celebrated and big playoff pushes were made all over the state during Week 8 of another football regular season that will be over by this time next week. 

This week's "Review" details several of those league races now decided, but also the movements of several teams in, or out, of the potential playoff field as we inch closer to Sunday's selection announcement. 

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Frankenmuth 21, Freeland 20 Frankenmuth (8-0) clinched the Tri-Valley Conference Red title and extended its league winning streak to 66 games, but with Freeland (7-1) providing one of the strongest challenges to the decade-plus run. Logan Diener’s second touchdown, with 3:58 to play, and Aiden Labissoniere’s go-ahead extra point helped put the game, and title, away. Click for more from the Saginaw News.

Watch list Grand Blanc 55, Davison 49 Grand Blanc (7-1) finished a perfect run through the Saginaw Valley League Red by handing Davison its lone Valley loss, although the Cardinals (6-2) finish with Lapeer this week. The Bobcats’ championship was their first since 2021 and came after finishing second to Davison a year ago.

On the move Goodrich 42, Fenton 3 Goodrich (7-1) won the overall Flint Metro League championship game and in doing so handed the Tigers (7-1) their first loss, finished a run of reaching 42 points in all seven league games and gave up a total of 45 points to Metro opponents. Ubly 30, Cass City 12 No one should have thought Ubly (5-3) was going away quietly with its 0-3 start this fall after last season’s Division 8 championship. Those first three opponents are a combined 23-1, and the Bearcats are up to No. 19 on the Division 8 playoff point list. Midland Dow 23, Lapeer 14 Dow (5-3) has won five of its last six games to jump into the Division 2 playoff picture for the first time this season, moving up seven spots to No. 26 while sending Lapeer to 5-3 and the No. 24 position on the Division 1 list.

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Detroit Cass Tech 30, Detroit Martin Luther King 14 Cass Tech (6-2) again broke the recent trend in this rivalry, taking the Detroit Public School Blue City championship after King won their first meeting this season and finished with the PSL Blue regular-season title. It was the second time in three years the Technicians have avenged a King loss from a month earlier, and also only the second time in five years that the winner of the first matchup didn’t finish with a sweep. Cass Tech’s Alex Graham scored on a kickoff return and catching a pass as the Technicians reached the end zone three times through the air. Click for more from the Detroit News.

Watch list Detroit Central 22, Detroit Denby 18 Central (6-2) has won six straight games and avenged a pair of losses from last season to Denby (5-3) to take the PSL Gold City championship after these two shared the regular-season title. The Trail Blazers gave up six points total with four shutouts over five division games and cooled a Denby offense that was averaging 33 points per game.

On the move Gibraltar Carlson 42, Allen Park 0 Carlson (7-1) clinched a share of the Downriver League title, its fourth straight, with Allen Park (6-2) holding out hope for a share as well if Lincoln Park can catch the Marauders this week. Clarkston Everest Collegiate 42, Royal Oak Shrine Catholic 3 The Mountaineers (8-0) finished off an outright title run in the Catholic High School League Intersectional #2, their second straight as they ran their league game winning streak to 12 with a seventh in a row over Shrine (6-2) – which has guaranteed its best record since 2020. Belleville 31, Dearborn Fordson 0 Belleville (8-0) closed out an eighth-straight league title by finishing another sweep of the Kensington Lakes Activities Association East, with this the Tigers’ second-straight shutout and third over seven KLAA games. Walled Lake Western 20, Mason 17 Walled Lake Western (8-0) entered the week No. 2 in the Division 3 coaches poll, and Mason (6-2) was No. 6 and had won both matchups with the Warriors last season including in a Regional Final.

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER Howell 36, Brighton 14 The Highlanders (8-0) completed a KLAA West outright championship, defeating Brighton (6-2) for the second-straight season to avoid what would have been a shared league title with the Bulldogs. Justin Jones ran for three touchdowns and caught a fourth to pace Howell, which faces Belleville this week in the overall KLAA championship game. Click for more from the Livingston Daily Press & Argus.

Watch list Portland 33, Lansing Sexton 0 Portland coach John Novara reached 200 career wins as the Raiders (8-0) finished another perfect run through the Capital Area Activities Conference White, extending their league game winning streak to 20. The shutout kept Portland at No. 9 on the Division 4 playoff list and Sexton (4-4) just outside the field at No. 34.

On the move Clare 54, Pinconning 28 After sharing the Jack Pine Conference Division 1 title, Clare (7-1) won this matchup with JPC Division 2 runner-up Pinconning (5-3) to move up to No. 11 on the Division 5 playoff list. Ionia 16, St. Johns 13 After this close win over St. Johns (5-3), the Bulldogs (5-3) are a win away from guaranteeing their best record since 2013 with rival Lake Odessa Lakewood up next. Olivet 27, Lansing Catholic 14 Olivet has two wins over Lansing Catholic (5-3) in two seasons in the CAAC White, with this one giving the Eagles (6-2) second place in the league and sending the Cougars into a tie for third.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER East Jordan 33, Frankfort 6 This could pay off in multiple ways for East Jordan (6-2). The Red Devils can continue to hold out hope of a title share in the Northern Michigan Football League Legacy (if Mancelona defeats first-place Maple City Glen Lake this week), and East Jordan also jumped past Frankfort on the Division 8 playoff list after trailing the Panthers (6-2) by one position entering Friday. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.

Watch list Ogemaw Heights 64, Harrison 28 The JPC Division 1 co-champion Ogemaw Heights (7-1) handed Division 2 winner Harrison (7-1) its first loss and scored a season high in bouncing back from a Week 6 defeat to Standish-Sterling.

On the move Boyne City 36, Oscoda 0 Boyne City (6-2) has climbed the Division 6 playoff list for the fourth-straight week, this time up to No. 18 while sending Oscoda (5-3) down only two slots to No. 30 in Division 7. Maple City Glen Lake 32, Saginaw Valley Lutheran 13 Glen Lake (7-1) has put together its best season since 2019 and heads into a potential outright league title clincher after a solid win over the Chargers (4-4). Manistee 65, Montague 32 Manistee (5-4) moved up from No. 30 to 24 on the Division 6 playoff list and moved Montague (3-5) from 31 to just outside the field at No. 33.

Grand Blanc’s Caseton Sendry (18) eludes a pair of Davison defenders.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Hudson 22, Clinton 6 Hudson (7-1) has a share of the Lenawee County Athletic Association championship and winless Hillsdale to play this week to make it outright, while Clinton and Ida are tied for second and likely the newest Hillsdale fans. Clinton (6-2) had won 24 straight LCAA games and the last two league titles. Click for more from the Adrian Daily Telegram.

Watch list Ottawa Lake Whiteford 30, White Pigeon 16 On paper, Whiteford (4-4) has had a tougher run than usual this fall. But its losses are to teams that are a combined 31-2, and the Bobcats are up to No. 21 on the Division 7 playoff list after handing White Pigeon (7-1) its lone defeat.

On the move Hanover-Horton 28, Brooklyn Columbia Central 19 The Cascades Conference West title belongs entirely to Hanover-Horton (8-0) as the Comets clinched it outright in sending Columbia Central (3-5) into third place and avoiding a potential three-team share. Grass Lake 28, Leslie 7 Leslie (7-1) already had the Cascades Conference East outright title in hand, but this is major win for Grass Lake (5-3) nonetheless as it bumped the Warriors up four spots to No. 37 on the Division 6 playoff list. Chelsea 21, Trenton 20 Division 4 contender Chelsea (7-1) needed a score during the final minutes to get past the Trojans (5-3), who remain No. 11 on the Division 3 playoff list.

Southwest Border

HEADLINER Kalamazoo United 35, Parchment 13 In a matchup of tough defenses, United’s was able to hold its ground most and slowed a Parchment offense that was averaging 42 points per game. In doing so, the Titans (7-1) clinched the outright Southwestern Athletic Conference Lakeshore championship, sending the Panthers (6-2) to second place with their only league defeat. Click for more from the Kalamazoo Gazette.

Watch list Mattawan 42, Kalamazoo Central 20 Over the last two weeks, Mattawan (5-3) has defeated leaders of both the Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference West and now East, in the process jumping from No. 39 two weeks ago to No. 22 on the Division 2 playoff list. Central (5-3) is tied for first in the East and plays Loy Norrix this week for that outright title.

On the move Decatur 18, Hopkins 0 Decatur (7-1) may have fallen eight points shy of catching champion White Pigeon in the Southwest 10 Conference, but it earned this win over Ottawa-Kent Conference Silver co-leader Hopkins (6-2) to guarantee its winningest season since 2014. Portage Northern 45, Kalamazoo Loy Norrix 0 The SMAC West could send four of its five teams to the playoffs, with this win over the Knights (5-3) bumping Northern (5-3) up to No. 21 on the Division 2 playoff list. Lawton 26, Saugatuck 10 Lawton (6-2) concluded the SAC Valley schedule by winning this matchup for second in the standings, further solidifying itself in the middle of the Division 7 field while Saugatuck (5-3) occupies the same in Division 8.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Kingsford 13, Menominee 12 This season’s Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper race couldn’t have been much closer, with champion Kingsford (8-0) edging Menominee (7-1) this time to go with its two-point win over Negaunee in Week 4. The Flivvers will face Marquette this week as they play for a perfect regular season. Click for more from the Iron Mountain Daily News.

Watch list Calumet 19, Gladstone 6 While just a notch below contending in the Copper, Calumet (5-3) gave Kingsford a 14-point game in Week 5 and won its three games since. The Copper Kings climbed the Division 6 playoff list for the third straight week, now to No. 26.

On the move Iron Mountain 42, Manistique 21 The Mountaineers (8-0) pulled within a win of a potential second-straight undefeated regular season. L’Anse 40, Gwinn 22 L’Anse not only reversed a 33-6 loss to Gwinn from Week 3, but ended a 15-game losing streak stretching back to 2022. Marquette 41, Cadillac 32 The Sentinels (6-2) bounced back from a heartbreaker against Petoskey to surpass last year’s victory total. Despite the loss, Cadillac (4-4) actually moved up a spot on the Division 3 playoff list, to No. 27.

East Grand Rapids’ Carson Thornton (8) finds a gap in the Grand Rapids Catholic Central defense.

West  Michigan

HEADLINER Grand Rapids West Catholic 54, Hamilton 14 After edging Ada Forest Hills Eastern by a point to take over first place alone in the O-K White in Week 7, West Catholic (6-2) sent Hamilton into third place and clinched the outright championship – its second straight after winning the O-K Blue outright last season. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.

Watch list Byron Center 17, Muskegon 14 With Byron Center’s move into the O-K Green this season, these two met for the first time since 2017 – and the Bulldogs (7-1) put a serious dent in the reigning Division 2 champion’s hopes of extending its playoff qualification streak that began in 2000.  

On the move Grand Rapids Northview 35, Holland Christian 20 Northview (8-0) finished an outright title run in the O-K Black while sending Holland Christian to 6-2. East Grand Rapids 31, Grand Rapids Catholic Central 28 East Grand Rapids (5-3) made second place in the O-K Black a three-team share with this win over the Cougars (5-3) in their first meeting since 2016. Big Rapids 24, Coopersville 7 Fresh off wrapping up a league title in Week 7, Big Rapids (7-1) handed a loss to River Cities Alliance co-leader Coopersville (5-3), which plays Cedar Springs this week for a potential outright league title.

8-Player

HEADLINER Climax-Scotts 46, Mendon 44 The Panthers (7-1) are outright Southern Central Athletic Association Red champions after handing the lone loss this fall to Mendon (7-1), with Jackson Bagwell scoring on a four-yard run and adding the winning 2-point conversion run with 55 seconds to play. Climax-Scotts scored first, and the teams then traded touchdowns all the way until the Panthers scored last. Click for more from WWMT.

Watch list Bay City All Saints 61, Kinde North Huron 22 The Cougars’ only loss this season came in Week 1 – to still-undefeated Deckerville – and they are Big Thumb Conference Red champions after this impressive winner-take-all performance against former co-leader North Huron (6-2).

On the move Pittsford 46, Waldron 14 The SCAA Blue belongs entirely to Pittsford (7-1), which clinched a share of the championship in Week 7 but needed to get past third-place Waldron (5-3) to finish the perfect run. Pickford 51, Norway 6 Pickford (8-0) clinched a share of the Great Lakes Eight Conference East title in this matchup of previous co-leaders. The Pirates may need to defeat third-place (tied) Munising this week to clinch it outright, with Norway (6-2) hoping to share with a win over the other third-place team, Rudyard, and a Munising victory. Indian River Inland Lakes 64, Bellaire 12 Inland Lakes (8-0) will play co-leader Gaylord St. Mary for the Ski Valley Conference title this week after turning back third-place Bellaire (6-2).

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PHOTOS (Top) Detroit Cass Tech’s Alex Graham pulls away for a touchdown against Detroit Martin Luther King at Ford Field. (Middle) Grand Blanc’s Caseton Sendry (18) eludes a pair of Davison defenders. (Below) East Grand Rapids’ Carson Thornton (8) finds a gap in the Grand Rapids Catholic Central defense. (Top photo by Olivia B. Photography. Grand Blanc/Davison photo by Terry Lyons. EGR/Catholic Central photo by Michigan Sports Photo.)