Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
1st & Goal: 2023 Playoff Week 3 Preview
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
November 10, 2023
By Saturday night, the first two MHSAA Football Finals matchups will be decided.
Four 8-Player Semifinals earlier that day will determine which teams advance to play one more time Nov. 18 at Northern Michigan University’s Superior Dome, and we detail this weekend’s matchups below.
We’re also down to the final eight teams in all eight 11-player divisions as Regional championships will determine the 32 that will take another step closer to spending Thanksgiving weekend at Ford Field.
Of 40 games played this weekend, 36 will be broadcast on MHSAA.tv, and continue to monitor the Football Playoff Scoreboard including for 11-Player Semifinal times and locations as those are determined.
8-Player Division 1
Indian River Inland Lakes (10-1) at Pickford (10-1), Saturday - WATCH
Pickford is playing in its first Semifinal since the Division 2 championship season of 2019, and bounced back nicely after losing its Week 9 game 42-10 to St. Ignace with a pair of rematch wins over Rudyard and Norway. Junior Tommy Storey tells it, rushing for 1,851 yards and 31 touchdowns and throwing for 794 and 12, respectively. Inland Lakes, however, edged St. Ignace 40-36 last week to advance – avenging a Week 4 loss to the Saints – and also is paced by a standout junior run/pass threat. Aidan Fenstermaker has run for 1,567 yards and 23 scores and thrown for 996 yards and 14 touchdowns.
Martin (9-2) at Kingston (9-2), Saturday - WATCH
Martin graduated 11 seniors, including an all-state quarterback, from last season’s Division 1 championship team. But the Clippers are again one step from playing for the title, led by another standout signal-caller. Junior Gavin Meyers has rushed for 1,144 yards and 11 touchdowns and thrown for 787 yards and eight more scores, and Martin is coming off avenging a 37-point Week 4 loss to Gobles with a 28-6 District Final win. Kingston is back in the Semifinals for the first time since 2019, and also having avenged an early defeat (by 18) with a 26-0 District Final win over Brown City. Senior Owen Corlis has piled up 1,412 yards and 23 touchdowns on the ground and connected on 56 percent of his passes with 10 – nearly half of those completions – going for scores. He also has three return TDs.
8-Player Division 2
Lake Linden-Hubbell (8-3) at Marion (10-0), Saturday - WATCH
Marion ran into eventual Division 2 champion Powers North Central in Semifinals the last three seasons, including while also undefeated a year ago, and will attempt to take the next step with a defense that has given up only 40 points over eight games on the field (two wins were by forfeit). Senior Gavin Prielipp is the leading rusher and scored 11 touchdowns rushing, eight receiving, three off interceptions and one apiece on kickoff and punt returns. Lake Linden-Hubbell is making its first Semifinal appearance since 1997 in 11-player and likely will try to break through the Eagles’ wall with senior quarterback Danny Marcotte (1,234 yards/20 TDs rushing ) and senior running back Sam Roberts (1,165/15).
Deckerville (9-2) at Adrian Lenawee Christian (11-0), Saturday - WATCH
Lenawee Christian has topped 60 points for the second time in three seasons, scoring more than 50 in seven games, with a variety of playmakers but quarterback Sam Lutz setting the pace. The senior has thrown for 1,727 yards and 29 touchdowns, rushed for 868 and 24, respectively, and also scored off interception and kickoff returns. Deckerville is one of the original 8-player powers and back in the Semifinals for the first time since 2017 after one-score playoff wins over Morrice and Portland St. Patrick. Junior Hunter Garza quarterbacks an attack that’s run for more than 3,000 yards, while he’s passed for 1,341 and 24 touchdowns.
11-Player Division 1
Davison (11-0) at Rockford (11-0), Saturday - WATCH
It’s difficult to not look ahead, knowing that one of these undefeated teams could next week face two-time reigning Division 1 champion Belleville in a Semifinal – if the Tigers defeat Northville on the other side of the bracket. But Davison and Rockford surely aren’t looking past anything; they last faced off in a 2020 Semifinal, won by the Cardinals, and both are seeking a first Regional title since that season. Both teams are keyed by standout offensive playmakers, and Rockford’s defense has been one of its best over the last decade giving up only 10 points per game despite facing Muskegon, Mona Shores and Caledonia among six playoff teams total during the regular season. The deciding matchup could be the Rams trying to slow down a Davison attack that has scored 44 or more points seven times.
Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Clarkston (6-5) at Western Bloomfield (9-2) - WATCH, Southfield Arts & Technology (10-1) at Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (9-2) - WATCH. SATURDAY Northville (10-1) at Belleville (11-0) - WATCH.
11-Player Division 2
Saturday Heritage (9-2) at Muskegon (9-2), Saturday
Muskegon is as close to a regular at this stage of the playoffs as any program in Michigan; the Big Reds will be playing in a Regional Final for the 11th time over the last 12 seasons as they continue to pursue a return trip to Ford Field. Heritage is much newer to the experience after winning its first District title since 2001 – but that just sets up an opportunity to add another incredible chapter to an already memorable run. The Hawks boast the state’s all-time leader in receiving touchdowns in Braylon Isom, who caught his 49th and 50th to tie and break the record in the District Final win. But Heritage also lost standout running back Ty Robertson to injury two weeks ago and now must stop or keep up with a Muskegon offense that’s reached 40 points in five of its last six games.
Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Byron Center (10-1) at East Lansing (9-2) - WATCH, Roseville (8-3) at Warren De La Salle Collegiate (9-2) - WATCH, Waterford Mott (9-2) at Gibraltar Carlson (10-1) - WATCH.
11-Player Division 3
Mason (11-0) at Walled Lake Western (10-1), Friday - WATCH
The setup for this rematch includes a rare mathematical oddity of the playoff system in that Mason went to Western in Week 8 and won 30-7, and now must return for this Regional Final. Western, with a schedule of mostly Division 2 opponents, has the home game after holding onto the top spot in Division 2 playoff-point average while Mason – playing a Division 3-heavy schedule – finished third on that list. The good news for the Bulldogs, however, is they know they can win this on the road – and the offense is continuing to churn with that first Western matchup the only game over the last six in which Mason didn’t score at least 41 points. That said, we’ve once again seen these playoffs a number of rematches flip, with multiple postseason winners coming back after losing big the first time around.
Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Gaylord (11-0) at Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central (10-1) - WATCH, Detroit Martin Luther King (6-5) at River Rouge (7-4) - WATCH. SATURDAY Zeeland West (8-3) at Parma Western (10-1).
11-Player Division 4
Portland (11-0) at Niles (10-1), Friday - WATCH
On the surface, this appears to be an undefeated Portland team with seven double-digit win seasons over the last nine, hitting the road seeking to return to the Semifinals after most recently making them in 2021 and 2018, on the way to face an up-and-coming Niles program that just won its first District title. But while all true, Niles is led by coach Scot Shaw, formerly of nearly two decades at Three Rivers and leader of its Division 4 championship team in 2003. He has the Vikings learning this playoff thing fast, but there will be some unfamiliarity regardless because Niles’ first two postseason wins were Wolverine Conference rematches. Portland, under another longtime leader in John Novara, has traveled this path and will be playing in its third-straight Regional Final.
Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Big Rapids (10-1) at Grand Rapids South Christian (8-3) - WATCH, Haslett (8-3) at Goodrich (10-1) - WATCH. SATURDAY Carleton Airport (10-1) at Harper Woods (8-3).
11-Player Division 5
Grand Rapids Catholic Central (10-1) at Grand Rapids West Catholic (11-0), Friday - WATCH
After playing last season in different divisions, these two are matched up again, and both enter this meeting undefeated against in-state opponents – GRCC’s lone loss came in Week 1 against Chicago Loyola. The challenges otherwise for both have been few. The Cougars defeated reigning Division 4 champion Grand Rapids South Christian 21-12 in Week 8, but have won all of their remaining games by at least 32 points. West Catholic’s 17-14 win over Division 3 Coopersville in Week 3 was its only game closer than 26 points, and the Falcons have given up a combined 13 points over their last five games with two shutouts to start the postseason.
Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Macomb Lutheran North (9-2) at Corunna (11-0) - WATCH, Flat Rock (8-3) at Detroit Southeastern (8-3). SATURDAY Kingsford (10-1) at Frankenmuth (10-1) - WATCH.
11-Player Division 6
Gladstone (9-2) at Kingsley (9-2), Friday - WATCH
Only eight teams remain in all of these 11-player divisions, and perhaps no division seems wider open than Division 6, with these two on the same side of the bracket with two more that have lost three games this fall. Kingsley won a Regional title as recently as 2019 and is playing in its fourth Regional Final over the last six seasons. Gladstone is playing in a Regional Final for the second straight after losing last year to Negaunee, the eventual Division 6 runner-up. The Braves defeated Negaunee last week, and another win would send them to the Semifinals for the first time since 1985.
Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Midland Bullock Creek (8-3) at Reed City (8-3) - WATCH, Detroit Edison (8-3) at Almont (10-1) - WATCH. SATURDAY Ovid-Elsie (7-4) at Constantine (10-1) - WATCH.
11-Player Division 7
Pewamo-Westphalia (10-1) vs. North Muskegon (11-0) at Muskegon Oakridge, Saturday - WATCH
A 17-14 opening-weekend win over annual Finals contender Pewamo-Westphalia announced statewide that North Muskegon might be set up for a special season. And so it’s been, with last week’s 27-24 District clincher over Lawton the Norsemen’s first single-digit victory since that Week 1 defeat of the Pirates. P-W hasn’t lost again, or had another game decided by fewer than 13 points. The defense especially has resembled the group that helped drive Division 7 titles in 2019 and 2021, giving up 8.6 points per game and double digits only three times. North Muskegon has been held to fewer than 27 only one other game this fall, an 18-7 win over rival Ravenna.
Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Montrose (8-3) at Millington (11-0) - WATCH, Clinton (10-1) at Jackson Lumen Christi (10-1) - WATCH. SATURDAY McBain (7-4) at Menominee (9-2) - WATCH.
11-Player Division 8
Ithaca (11-0) at Ubly (11-0), Saturday - WATCH
This is the level of showdown that immediately came to mind when Ithaca slotted as one of the two largest schools in Division 8 after playoff runs in Divisions 5, 6 and 7 over the last decade. After another dominant regular season, Ithaca has navigated one-point wins over Fowler and New Lothrop to start the playoffs. The Yellowjackets feature their most potent offensive attack since 2017 and still have given up only 9.2 points per game after allowing a combined 55 over the last two weeks. Ubly’s last three seasons have ended at Ford Field twice and the Semifinals in 2021, and this team has performed similarly keeping pace with last season’s record-setting offense and allowing only 9.5 points per game.
Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Iron Mountain (11-0) at Beal City (10-1) - WATCH, White Pigeon (11-0) at Ottawa Lake Whiteford (11-0) - WATCH. SATURDAY Riverview Gabriel Richard (7-4) at Clarkston Everest Collegiate (9-2) - WATCH.
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PHOTO Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central defenders converge during a Division 3 District Final win over Mount Pleasant. (Click for more from High School Sports Scene.)