Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
Seeing is Believing as Confident Britton Deerfield Playing for Finals Trip
By
Doug Donnelly
Special for MHSAA.com
November 12, 2024
A little confidence can go a long way. A lot of confidence could get you to the state championship game.
Britton Deerfield is enjoying a remarkable turnaround season this year and will host Morrice for an 8-Player Division 2 Semifinal on Saturday.
Last year at this time, head coach Erik Johnson was shaking off the pain of a 2-7 season.
“It’s a great story,” Johnson said. “You go 2-7 and, really, last year, the last five weeks of the year we weren’t even in the game. We were getting blown out by halftime in most of those games.
“For those kids to have the resolve and come back and have the kind of success they are having this year is just great to see.”
Britton Deerfield is in its fourth season of 8-player football and having its best season yet. The Patriots have won nine straight games heading into Saturday’s Semifinal against Morrice and have set a school record for points scored in a season. Over the last six weeks, they are averaging 60.3 points per game and set the school’s single-game scoring record.
Senior Luke Wiser said the difference from last season is the team’s confidence.
“It’s all in the mindset,” Wiser said. “Last year we didn’t have the great confidence we have now.”
BD struggled early this season until that confidence kicked in. The Patriots defeated Pittsford in Week 1 but gave up 58 points. They lost in Week 2 to Mendon, giving up 66 points.
Johnson went to the defensive drawing board and challenged his players to get better.
“We talked a lot about the mental aspect of tackling,” he said. “They’ve been tackling since middle school. They’ve been through every tackling drill you can do. Now, it’s about the mental part of football, wrapping up and making the play.”
Over the next two weeks BD held Colon and Concord to one touchdown each.
The new Patriots offense started to soar as well. Johnson had favored a spread offense with a lot of jet sweeps and the quarterback alternating running and throwing the ball. In the offseason, he made a change.
“I knew we were going to have a stable of kids who could run the ball and a couple of different kids who could throw the ball, so I started to think of how I could maximize their efforts,” he said. “We went to more of a single wing offense. I watched a video series about the single wing and worked on ways to adjust that to make it work for our 8-man game.”
The single wing look requires the center to snap the ball to one of three backs and none playing the traditional role of quarterback. The results have been great.
The Patriots have rushed for 68 touchdowns this season and average 7.9 yards a carry. Wiser has rushed for 1,549 yards and scored 27 touchdowns. Caden Freeman has rushed for 806 yards, Caden Kubacki 666 and Cayden Allshouse 569.
Wiser credits the BD offensive line.
“It’s almost like I’m not running,” he said. “I follow my blocks and break off a run, but I think they really do an outstanding job, and our offense moves through them.”
Johnson said as the linemen settled in this season, they started to come to him to suggest different things.
“You know things are going well when the kids see something on the field and come talk to the coaches about it,” he said. “I’ll just say, ‘Yeah, let’s give that a try.’”
On defense, seniors Hunter Kniffin and Jayden Brooks lead the Patriots in tackles. Junior Liem Roe has eight interceptions.
In the first round of the playoffs, BD knocked out Adrian Lenawee Christian, which had won three Finals championships over the last four years. That, in itself, turned some heads.
“To beat LCS was huge for our confidence,” Johnson said. “We have been able to beat some teams that have had our number. LCS had handled us in every game we have had with them until this year.”
BD has eight seniors who have stepped into leadership roles. Juniors who played a lot as sophomores are contributing too.
“We had some younger guys in the backfield last year, but those guys have all grown up,” Johnson said. “The seniors have done an outstanding job of being there, ever since summer. When all of your seniors are there, that feeds down through the program. Other kids see that.”
Johnson said four years ago he couldn’t have predicted the current group of seniors would be where they are today.
“Some of those kids didn’t even play when they were a freshman,” he recalled. “It’s been a pleasant surprise to watch that group mature, and to see them now have success is awesome.”
The Patriots captured the first Regional championship for the program since Britton and Deerfield combined to form one high school in 2010.
From 1993 to 2010, the two schools played a cooperative football program and reached the 11-Player Semifinals in 1999 and 2000. A photo hangs in the school showing a huge crowd ringing the field during the playoff runs those seasons.
The team plays in a new stadium, just a few hundred yards from the old stadium, which is now the practice field.
“The crowd was great,” Johnson said of the Regional championship win over Pittsford. “They were into it. They stayed until after the trophy presentation and celebrated. It was great.”
If Britton Deerfield wants to get to the Division 2 championship game Nov. 23 in Marquette, the Patriots will need that crowd and confidence when they face the 10-1 Orioles this weekend.
“Our kids are really confident,” Johnson said. “That’s a good thing. You get that feeling like you can’t be stopped, and you can win every game you play. That’s good to have.”
Doug Donnelly has served as a sports and news reporter and city editor over 25 years, writing for the Daily Chief-Union in Upper Sandusky, Ohio from 1992-1995, the Monroe Evening News from 1995-2012 and the Adrian Daily Telegram since 2013. He's also written a book on high school basketball in Monroe County and compiles record books for various schools in southeast Michigan. E-mail him at [email protected] with story ideas for Jackson, Washtenaw, Hillsdale, Lenawee and Monroe counties.
PHOTOS (Top) Britton Deerfield’s Caden Kubacki, with the ball, stretches forward for extra yardage against Adrian Lenawee Christian. (Middle) Luke Wiser (4) takes on a Pittsford tackler. (Top photo by Deloris Clark-Cheaney. Wiser photo by John Discher.)