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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Mendon’s J.T. Lux (23) follows a blocker and pulls away from a Martin defender during his team’s Regional Final win.

1st & Goal: 2024 Playoffs Week 2 Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

November 11, 2024

If at first you don’t succeed … wait until the playoffs?

MI Student AidThat became the storyline for some of the most intriguing rematches during District title weekend for 11-player football and Regional championship weekend for 8-player brackets.

Of 72 MHSAA playoff games total, 23 were rematches from the regular season. A total of 15 teams won both the first meeting and the second – but that means eight teams that lost before advanced this time around, and plenty shaking up brackets in major ways.  

11-Player Division 1

HEADLINER Macomb Dakota 41, Utica Eisenhower 14 Dakota’s only loss this season was Week 7 to Eisenhower, 21-14. But the Cougars (10-1) avenged in a big way with Brady Hamby reaching the end zone four times to lead the team to a District title after these two shared the Macomb Area Conference Red championship. Click for more from the Macomb Daily.

District Digest Howell 35, Brighton 33 Justin Jones broke Howell’s single-season records for rushing yards and touchdowns, adding 225 and four, respectively, as the Highlanders (11-0) held off the rival Bulldogs (8-3) in a rematch from Week 8. Hudsonville 19, Grandville 16 The Eagles (10-1) also had to hold on in a rematch from the regular season, adding this to a Week 7 victory over Grandville (6-5). Grand Blanc 29, Oxford 7 Grand Blanc (9-2) won this clash of league champions to secure its first District title since 2021 and end Oxford’s season at 7-4, its winningest since 2018.

11-Player Division 2

HEADLINER Byron Center 30, Muskegon Mona Shores 23 Byron Center (10-1) was only slightly behind Mona Shores (9-2) on the final Division 2 playoff points list, and with this win moves ahead as the highest-ranked team on their side of the bracket. Mona Shores had won their Week 4 meeting 14-12. Click for more from FOX 17.

District Digest East Lansing 50, Dexter 49 East Lansing scored and connected on a 2-point conversion pass with no time left on the clock to claim a third-straight District title and end Dexter’s season at 10-1. Saginaw Heritage 17, Midland 7 This was another rematch reversal, as Heritage (8-3) avenged its 28-13 loss to Midland (9-2) from Week 7. Warren De La Salle Collegiate 35, Grosse Pointe South 21 De La Salle (8-2) clinched a fifth-straight District title by handing Grosse Pointe South (10-1) its only defeat.

11-Player Division 3

HEADLINER Zeeland West 42, St. Joseph 0 West (10-1) ran its District championship streak to three and has outscored its two playoff opponents by a combined 74-6 after posting its first shutout of this season. St. Joseph (9-2) was averaging 36 points per game entering the matchup. Click for more from the Holland Sentinel.

District Digest River Rouge 20, Riverview 14 Rouge (6-4) has won four straight after opening 2-4 and claimed this District title by defeating the same two opponents as a year ago, Southgate Anderson and then Riverview (9-2). Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central 28, Coopersville 17 The reigning Division 3 champion Rangers (9-2) earned a rematch with Zeeland West, which won their first meeting in Week 6. Coopersville finished 7-4. Petoskey 38, Mount Pleasant 10 The Northmen (11-0) extended their record-setting season by reaching 11 wins for the first time with their first District title since 2014. Mount Pleasant finished 6-5.

DeWitt’s Traverse Moore (2) eludes a Lowell defender during the Panthers’ 49-35 win in Division 3.

11-Player Division 4

HEADLINER Grand Rapids South Christian 35, Hudsonville Unity Christian 28 In perhaps the upset of the weekend, South Christian avenged a 50-21 loss to Unity (10-1) from Week 7, moving to 7-4 while toppling what was the top team on the Division 4 playoff points list heading into the postseason. Unity led by one at halftime and pulled within one again with 8:21 to play before the Sailors finished the win. Click for more from Michigan Sports Radio.

District Digest Haslett 24, Chelsea 9 The Vikings (8-3) went to Chelsea (8-3) and brought home a District title for the second season in a row, this time adding to a seven-game winning streak to earn a Regional Final rematch with Goodrich. Goodrich 27, Freeland 21 The Martians pulled ahead by two touchdowns with 2:13 to play and held off Freeland’s late comeback attempt to clinch a third-straight District title. The Falcons finished 9-2 after also falling to Goodrich in a District Final last year. Macomb Lutheran North 43, Croswell-Lexington 42 (OT) Lutheran North (10-1) clinched a second-straight District championship and reached 10 wins for the first time, ending Croswell-Lexington’s run at 7-4.

11-Player Division 5

HEADLINER Grand Rapids Catholic Central 21, Grand Rapids West Catholic 18 A late blocked punt and a go-ahead touchdown pass gave Catholic Central (7-4) a ninth-straight District championship with this third-straight playoff win over its rival. West Catholic (7-4) also saw its 2023 season end against the Cougars in a Regional Final. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.

District Digest Gladwin 28, Ogemaw Heights 19 Gladwin (8-3) not only avenged last year’s District opener loss but also a 12-7 Week 3 defeat this fall to Ogemaw Heights (9-2). Frankenmuth 37, Belding 7 The undefeated Eagles’ defense continued to shine, this time slowing down a Belding offense that was averaging 46.5 points per game entering the weekend. The Black Knights finished 9-2. Armada 63, Hazel Park 0 Armada (10-1) claimed its first District championship in this sport, also reaching double-digit wins for the first time, while Hazel Park (7-4) capped its first winning season since 2017 and winningest since 2010. 

11-Player Division 6

HEADLINER Boyne City 21, Kingsley 15 The reigning champion is out as Boyne City (9-2) avenged its most recent loss, 26-20 to Kingsley (8-3) from Week 4 in what also was a rematch of two of the three champions from the Northern Michigan Football League Legends. The District title was Boyne’s first since 2014. Click for more from the Petoskey News-Review.

District Digest Newaygo 35, Central Montcalm 34 Newaygo (9-2) claimed its first District title since 2012, thanks in part to stopping Central Montcalm (9-2) on a 2-point conversion attempt after a fourth-quarter touchdown. The Hornets finished their winningest campaign since 1999, according to Michigan-Football.com. Lansing Catholic 31, Ovid-Elsie 28 Lansing Catholic (8-3) finished a run through the elite from the Mid-Michigan Activities Conference, with this win over the runner-up Marauders (8-3) following the District-opening victory over MMAC champion Chesaning. Marine City 38, Warren Michigan Collegiate 28 Marine City (9-2) claimed its first District title since 2021, handing Michigan Collegiate (9-2) its first loss since Week 1. Michigan Collegiate had entered the postseason third on the Division 6 playoff-points average list, and Marine City was fourth.

11-Player Division 7

HEADLINER Menominee 35, Traverse City St. Francis 32 (OT) Menominee (10-1) emerged with arguably its best win this fall as it works to return to Ford Field this month. The Maroons had played only one other single-digit game this season – a two-point Week 8 loss to Kingsford – but held on to get to overtime and then get past the Gladiators (7-4). Click for more from the Escanaba Daily Press.

District Digest Pewamo-Westphalia 17, Ithaca 14 The Pirates (9-2) are repeat District champions as they improved to 3-2 in one-score games this fall, while Ithaca finished 10-1 after its second-straight perfect regular season. North Muskegon 27, McBain 7 The Norsemen (10-1) also finished a second-straight District title run, this one by locking down a McBain offense that was averaging 42 points per game entering the weekend. The Ramblers finished 9-2. Hudson 30, Union City 7 The Tigers (10-1) won their first District title since 2021 with a fifth-straight game holding the opponent to single-digit scoring — and this time while also putting up the most points Union City (9-2) allowed this fall, its winningest since 2011.

Grand Blanc’s Nik Lemons (5) finds the edge as Oxford tacklers pursue.

11-Player Division 8

HEADLINER Harbor Beach 37, Clarkston Everest Collegiate 7 As this season has rolled on, Harbor Beach (11-0) has been more and more impressive. Since a two-point win Week 1 over Cass City, the Pirates haven’t let an opponent closer than 30 points – and Everest (9-2) was arguably its toughest challenge to date, scoring 36 points per game and giving up just under eight before Harbor Beach sailed through. Click for more from the Huron Daily Tribune.

District Digest Iron Mountain 21, East Jordan 18 Iron Mountain (11-0) emerged from its closest challenge this fall to earn a Regional rematch with Beal City, which defeated the Mountaineers a year ago. East Jordan finished 8-3. Reading 30, Springport 29 This was another regular season loss avenged, as Reading (7-4) continued to rebound from last season’s rare sub-.500 finish and after falling 28-24 to Springport in Week 6. Beal City 21, Maple City Glen Lake 14 A second-straight District trophy didn’t come easily for the Aggies (9-2), who went on the road and defeated a league champion that at 9-2 finished its best season since 2019.

8-Player Division 1

HEADLINER Mendon 26, Martin 22 There will be a new Division 1 champion. Martin’s two-year reign came to an end as J.T. Lux ran in the winning score for Mendon (10-1) with two seconds to play. He finished with 147 yards at more than 10 per carry and also had an 84-yard touchdown run during the third quarter – although Martin (9-2) did take the lead during the fourth quarter, setting up Lux’s final heroics. Click for more from the Sturgis Journal.

Regional Roundup Indian River Inland Lakes 32, Alcona 26 Inland Lakes (11-0) played only its second single-digit game this season and its closest to date, but held strong to repeat as a Regional champion and end Alcona’s season at 9-2 with both losses by eight or fewer points. Deckerville 40, Kingston 6 Deckerville (11-0) added to a 44-0 win over Kingston (8-3) from Week 7 to repeat as a Regional title winner. Pickford 44, Ishpeming 6 The Panthers (11-0) also finished a season sweep with a Regional title, having already defeated Ishpeming 65-14 in Week 4. The Hematites ended their first 8-player season 6-3.

8-Player Division 2

HEADLINER Crystal Falls Forest Park 34, Powers North Central 12 In perhaps one the most defining short-range turnarounds of the playoffs so far, Forest Park (10-1) bounced back from losing a league-deciding matchup 45-34 to North Central in Week 9 – and to claim a first Regional title since the Trojans won Division 2 in 2017. The Jets finished 9-2, one win better than a year ago. Click for more from MyUPNow.

Regional Roundup Onekama 48, Au Gres-Sims 44 After four tough seasons during which Onekama won a combined eight games, the Portagers are 10-1 and returning to the Semifinals for the first time since 2018 – and after avenging a 52-30 loss to Au Gres-Sims (9-2) from a year ago. Morrice 46, Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart 14 The Orioles (10-1) eliminated a league opponent for the second time in two playoff games and this time to win a second Regional title in three seasons. Sacred Heart finished 7-4. Britton Deerfield 60, Pittsford 26 The Patriots (10-1) set a program record for wins with their first Regional championship, handing Pittsford a second defeat after also downing the Wildcats (8-3) in their season opener.

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PHOTOS (Top) Mendon’s J.T. Lux (23) follows a blocker and pulls away from a Martin defender during his team’s Regional Final win. (Middle) DeWitt’s Traverse Moore (2) eludes a Lowell defender during the Panthers’ 49-35 win in Division 3. (Below) Grand Blanc’s Nik Lemons (5) finds the edge as Oxford tacklers pursue. (Top photo by Gary Shook/GSPHOTO. DeWitt/Lowell photo by L.C. Arreguin/Team Arreguin Photos. Grand Blanc/Oxford photo by Terry Lyons.)