Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.

  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.

  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.

  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.

  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

Southfield's Marshall Has More History-Making in Mind as Senior Season Revs Up

By Keith Dunlap
Special for MHSAA.com

August 31, 2023

SOUTHFIELD – No matter what Southfield Arts & Technology senior quarterback Isaiah Marshall accomplishes from here on out in football, he can claim one distinction not even many all-time greats have achieved.

Greater DetroitWhen Marshall was in seventh grade, he got a college scholarship offer from a Power 5 college program.

Yes, you read that correctly. He was in seventh grade.

While University of Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh was at the school to scout another player from Southfield A&T at the time, Marshall’s father Brian and uncle Aaron gave Harbaugh a tape of Isaiah’s highlights up through his seventh-grade year.

That was good enough for Harbaugh, who offered Marshall a scholarship then despite his youth.

“I was surprised because getting an offer wasn’t on my mind when I was in seventh grade,” Marshall said.

So, that was the beginning point of Marshall’s courtship to play college football. It hasn’t stopped since, and now the question is whether it will continue all the way up to signing day in December.

Starting his last year of high school, Marshall – also known as “Zeke” – has established himself as arguably the best quarterback in the history of any Southfield program, and certainly one of the best dual-threat signal callers in the state.

Marshall might be committed to Kansas and plans to enroll in January after this Southfield A&T semester is done, but odds are good that won’t stop other programs from continuing to pursue him, especially if he has the big senior season many expect.

“There are still some coaches that talk to the head coach of my school,” he said. “But I personally haven’t talked to any.”

Marshall (97) works with his offense during a practice earlier this month.Last year as a junior, Marshall threw for 2,571 yards and 27 touchdowns and ran for 1,065 yards and 18 scores as Southfield A&T finished 8-3 and won the Oakland Activities Association White championship.

Marshall’s coach is his uncle, Aaron Marshall, who obviously could see seeds of greatness being planted in his nephew from a young age.

“As he grew up and grew older and training him, he really kind of embraced everything,” Aaron Marshall said. “He was always a really good listener. He was always mild-mannered (and) had signs of someone who wanted to do something, not really being forced to do it. As a kid, you definitely saw some foreshadowing that he had something special because of his focus and attention at such a young age.”

His senior year got off to a great start Saturday, when he went 15 of 25 for 210 yards and three touchdowns passing and rushed for 80 yards and the game-winning score in a 29-27 Southfield A&T win over Detroit Cass Tech.

Marshall rushed for the clinching touchdown with 54 seconds remaining, a 16-yard scamper to the end zone on a 4th-and-5 play.

“If I have a hole, I’m going to take it,” Isaiah Marshall said. “Just like that last play when I scored, I told myself that if I had a hole, I was going to take it.”

While he is a major problem for defenses when he runs, Marshall is actually trying to improve his ability as a pocket passer this year as he prepares for college.

“Just staying in the pocket more, staying balanced, staying consistent and making great reads,” he said. “I’ve tried to do less (running) and try to get the ball to my receivers more. But at the end of the day, I’m going to try and do what I have to in order to help my team win.”

Marshall, the son of past Northwestern University player and Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice standout Brian Marshall, has grown up around Southfield A&T football – Brian is among Aaron Marshall's assistants – and has seen many good teams and future college players come through the program. 

But the Warriors have never advanced to a state championship game, and making program history is obviously a major motivation.

“We have 29 seniors, so I think that’s a big part of what we can do this year,” he said.

Given how he’s watched Isaiah grow up physically and in the game, Aaron Marshall knows if anyone can lead the Warriors to history, it’s his nephew.

“He’s even more vocal now as a senior,” he said. “Kids really latch on to him because of his work ethic. He wants the best for everybody, and he’s such a team guy. When he speaks, they really pay attention.”

Keith DunlapKeith Dunlap has served in Detroit-area sports media for more than two decades, including as a sportswriter at the Oakland Press from 2001-16 primarily covering high school sports but also college and professional teams. His bylines also have appeared in USA Today, the Washington Post, the Detroit Free Press, the Houston Chronicle and the Boston Globe. He served as the administrator for the Oakland Activities Association’s website from 2017-2020. Contact him at [email protected] with story ideas for Oakland, Macomb and Wayne counties

PHOTOS (Top) Isaiah Marshall (red jersey) is off to another fast start as a senior this fall for Southfield A&T. (Middle) Marshall (97) works with his offense during a practice earlier this month. (Photos by Ricardo Thornton/RT Studios.)