Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.

  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.

  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.

  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.

  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

1st & Goal: 2023 Week 2 Preview

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

August 31, 2023

While opening weekend is always going to be among the most highly-anticipated every football season, Week 2 this fall could provide quite an encore.

MI Student AidThis weekend’s schedule statewide leads off with a trio of massive matchups that include teams from the Grand Rapids and/or Muskegon areas, with perhaps the top two teams in both the Lansing area and entire Upper Peninsula also set to face off and a possible Flint-area league championship also potentially being previewed for the second-straight season.

Four games were scheduled to be played Wednesday, with 241 today, 53 on Friday and two Saturday. Broadcasts of several will be available on MHSAA.tv with subscription, and come back all weekend to the MHSAA Scores page for results as they come in.

Here’s a look at some of those matchups that jump off the page most:

Bay & Thumb

Linden (1-0) at Goodrich (1-0), Thursday

Three of four meetings between these two over the last four seasons has been decided by six points or fewer. They met twice last season, first in a Flint Metro League non-divisional tune-up – won by Goodrich 6-0 – and then in the league championship game after both won their divisions, with the Martians prevailing again 21-0. After going separate ways a second time, Goodrich ended up in the Division 4 Final and finished runner-up, and Linden reached a Regional Final in Division 3.

Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Richmond (1-0) at Croswell-Lexington (1-0), Ithaca (1-0) at Standish-Sterling (0-1), Cass City (1-0) at Harbor Beach (1-0). FRIDAY Traverse City Central (1-0) at Lapeer (1-0).

Greater Detroit

Rochester (1-0) at Rochester Adams (1-0), Thursday

Look past that Adams has won this matchup 26 times in a row, and the rivalry has had a different vibe of late as Rochester has continued to improve. The Highlanders won both meetings last year, 34-18 in Week 2 but also 28-14 in a Division 1 District Final while facing the Falcons in the playoffs for the second time in three seasons. Rochester High has strung together three straight winning seasons and lost last week by just a point, 22-21, to Utica while Adams opened with a 22-8 win over Orchard Lake St. Mary’s.

Keep an eye on these THURSDAY West Bloomfield (1-0) at Birmingham Groves (1-0), Detroit Loyola (1-0) at Warren Michigan Collegiate (1-0). FRIDAY Hastings (1-0) at Pontiac Notre Dame Prep (1-0), Clarkston (0-1) at Southfield Arts & Technology (1-0).

Mid-Michigan

Mason (1-0) at DeWitt (1-0), Thursday

These two both were one more win away from giving Ford Field an all-Capital Area Activities Conference Division 3 Final last season, as they both finished with losses in Semifinals on the opposite sides of the bracket. They may be mid-Michigan’s top two teams this season. DeWitt again is a favorite in the CAAC Blue and showed plenty of mettle in coming back to defeat Haslett in their opener 27-17. Mason returns nearly its entire starting lineup from last year’s 12-1 run and opened last week with a 52-14 win over Holt, a Division 1 playoff team last fall.

Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Hudsonville (1-0) at East Lansing (0-1), Portland (1-0) at Olivet (0-1), Lansing Sexton (1-0) at Lansing Catholic (1-0), Fenton (1-0) at Haslett (0-1).

Northern Lower Peninsula

Frankfort (1-0) at Maple City Glen Lake (1-0), Thursday

These two frequent league title contenders didn’t determine any championships last year, but Frankfort did win their matchup 22-6 to finish runner-up in the Northern Michigan Football League Legacy. Both teams opened with wins last week, Frankfort in the Legacy 38-8 over Mancelona, and the Lakers 34-18 nonleague over Manton. After a mostly-dominating 20-teens, Glen Lake has had a few tough seasons of late – but winning this matchup would be a nice boost as first-year coach Jesse Smith establishes his program.

Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Hudson (1-0) at Benzie Central (1-0), Johannesburg-Lewiston (1-0) at East Jordan (1-0), Gaylord (1-0) at Kingsley (1-0). FRIDAY Elk Rapids (0-1) at Boyne City (1-0).

Southeast & Border

Riverview (1-0) at Carleton Airport (1-0), Thursday

Riverview was able to clinch the outright Huron League title last season in part because of an 18-13 win over Airport in Week 7, with the Jets going on to tie for second. This matchup could be part of the equation again, especially after Airport claimed an impressive 31-10 win last week over Gibraltar Carlson – winner of nine games both of the last two seasons – and Pirates more than doubled up Detroit Renaissance to run their regular-season winning streak to 29.

Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Whitehall (1-0) at Tecumseh (1-0), Detroit Country Day (1-0) at Parma Western (1-0). FRIDAY Edwardsburg (0-1) at Chelsea (0-1), Dexter (0-1) at Saline (1-0).

Southwest Corridor

Traverse City St. Francis (1-0) at Lawton (1-0), Friday

This season’s Gladiators picked up some key experience on the fly last week with a 41-40 overtime win over Charlevoix as they work to replace many of last year’s leaders who took the team to a Division 7 runner-up finish and along the way defeated Lawton 42-7 in Week 8. The Blue Devils were in a similar spot a year ago as the 2021 Division 7 runner-up and rebounded from the St. Francis defeat to win a District title before falling by just a point to eventual champion Jackson Lumen Christi in the Regional. St. All four teams mentioned here are in Division 7 this fall, and Lawton opened with a 51-20 win last week over Benton Harbor.  

Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Schoolcraft (1-0) at Centreville (0-1), Delton Kellogg (1-0) at Parchment (1-0), Niles (1-0) at Stevensville Lakeshore (0-1). FRIDAY Battle Creek Harper Creek (1-0) at Battle Creek Central (0-1)

Upper Peninsula

Negaunee (1-0) at Gladstone (1-0), Thursday

The conversation went back and forth last season about which of these two was the Upper Peninsula’s best team until Negaunee won their first meeting 24-6 in Week 7, and the Miners wrapped that up again with an 18-12 Regional win on the way to finishing Division 6 runner-up. It’s too early to have that conversation yet this year, but judging by last week’s results – Gladstone won 36-7 over Marquette and Negaunee doubled up Ishpeming 32-16 – both may be in the conversation again.

Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Bark River-Harris (1-0) at Iron Mountain (1-0), Cadillac (0-1) at Escanaba (1-0), Menominee (1-0) at Hancock (1-0), Kingsford (1-0) at Houghton (0-1).

West Michigan

Warren De La Salle Collegiate (0-1) at Muskegon (0-1), Friday

As noted, there are some monster matchups on the west side of the state this weekend – see below for others – but it’s hard not to dive into this one even though both fell in season openers last week. Both also finished last season at Ford Field – De La Salle as repeat Division 2 champion and Muskegon as Division 3 runner-up. The Pilots were leading Davison last week before storms forced their game to finish up the next day and the Cardinals prevailed 31-26. The Big Reds, meanwhile, took on another Division 1 contender in Rockford and lost 27-7 in a game that also no doubt will pay off in experience and playoff points.

Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Portage Central (1-0) at Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central (1-0). FRIDAY River Rouge (0-1) at Grand Rapids Catholic Central (0-1), East Grand Rapids (1-0) at Grand Rapids South Christian (1-0), Rockford (1-0) at Muskegon Mona Shores (1-0).

8-Player

Posen (1-0) at Rogers City (1-0), Friday

Rogers City was the North Star League Big Dipper champion last season, and Posen was the Little Dipper runner-up, and the Hurons claimed their Week 3 meeting 12-6. Both are coming off big season-opening wins last week, with Posen nearly doubling up a Pellston program that’s had a nice run of success most of the last half-decade. But this matchup likely will tell us much more about both teams, especially relative to the 18-1 regular-season run Rogers City has put together since the start of 2021.

Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Merrill (1-0) at Morrice (1-0), Lake Linden-Hubbell (1-0) at Indian River Inland Lakes (1-0), Colon (0-1) at Mendon (1-0), Munising (0-1) at Newberry (1-0).

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PHOTO A St. Clair Shores Lakeview ball carrier works to break a tackle during last week’s 28-0 win over Warren Woods Tower. (Photo by Chris Mudd/National Photo Scout.)