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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.

  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.

  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.

  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.

  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

Negaunee's Kai Lacar gets a few yards before being tackled by Kingsford's Wyatt Scott (24) and Caleb Kleist (30).

1st & Goal: 2023 Week 4 Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

September 18, 2023

We're just a few days past the fourth week of this high school football season. A few of Michigan's high school leagues have yet to even begin play.

MI Student AidBut for several others, we already are getting ideas of which teams might be celebrating championships when the regular season is done – and we're likely to look back at Week 4 as playing a big part.

Several conference favorites and other early impressers met over the weekend, and a number of standings shifters are highlighted below: 

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Gladwin 44, Clare 28 The Flying Gs (4-0) took over first place alone in the Jack Pine Conference, but only after flipping this game during the final 25 minutes. Clare took a 21-3 lead with 1:07 left in the first half – but Gladwin responded with a touchdown pass with 29 seconds left before the break, and then Jhace Massey threw another after an onside kick to get the margin to just five points by halftime. Clare (2-2) pushed the lead back to 12 to start the second half, but Gladwin then scored 28 unanswered points, and Massey finished with those two passing touchdowns and three more running the ball. Click for more from MI Sports Now.

Watch list Almont 29, North Branch 22 Almont (4-0) gave up just its first points of this season in starting the heart of the Blue Water Area Conference schedule with this win over the reigning co-champion Broncos (2-2), and with the other co-champion Armada and current co-leader Croswell-Lexington up over the next two weeks, respectively.

On the move Ubly 56, Harbor Beach 20 Ubly (4-0) stands alone atop the Greater Thumb Conference East standings after scoring its season high to get past the Pirates (3-1). Montrose 29, Ovid-Elsie 22 Montrose (4-0) will play Chesaning for first in the Mid-Michigan Activities Conference this week now having defeated reigning champion Durand and the reigning runner-up Marauders (2-2). Midland Bullock Creek 28, Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary 0 Bullock Creek (2-2) is seeking its first winning season since 2019 and avenged a 14-13 loss to MLS from last year to get back to even this fall with both losses so far by only seven points apiece.

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Lake Orion 17, West Bloomfield 13 Lake Orion (4-0) is off to its best start since finishing 9-2 in 2019, its four wins equaling last year’s total and the team’s most since that last winning season. The Dragons went ahead for good with 1:24 to play, giving them their first win in the annual matchup since 2013. Lake Orion’s defense came up especially big, holding the Lakers (3-1) to their fewest points in a regular season game since also scoring 13 in the 2018 finale. Click for more from the Oakland Press.

Watch list Detroit Cass Tech 14, Detroit Martin Luther King 7 The result of this matchup generally means a Detroit Public School League division title for the winner, and Cass Tech is among three teams without a loss early in the PSL Blue after De’Mari Hendrix put them ahead to stay with a score during the final minute.

On the move Southfield Arts & Technology 42, Birmingham Groves 35 The Warriors (4-0), No. 8 in the Division 1 coaches poll, got the weekend rolling with a Thursday night win over Division 2 No. 5 Groves (2-2). Novi 39, Brighton 21 Novi avenged last season’s 41-6 loss to the Bulldogs (1-3) and is 3-1 for the first time since 2013. Pontiac Notre Dame Prep 40, Detroit Country Day 0 NDP (4-0) avenged last season’s 35-19 District Final loss to Country Day (1-3) while winning its third-straight game by 40 or more points this fall.

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER East Lansing 40, DeWitt 34 East Lansing (2-2) scored first and then held off a second-half Panthers comeback attempt to remain one of three teams undefeated in Capital Area Activities Conference Blue play. The Trojans also ran their winning streak over DeWitt (1-2) to two in adding to last season’s 36-30 win, as this has become one of the annual must-see games in the Lansing area. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

Watch list Lansing Sexton 28, Charlotte 0 By moving to 4-0, Sexton has equaled last season’s win total and all but guaranteed its best finish since its most recent winning season in 2017. The J-Dubbs shut down a Charlotte offense that averaged 42 points per game during the Orioles’ 3-0 start.

On the move Mason 37, Williamston 12 Mason (4-0) just keeps churning, this time extending a winning streak over Williamston (2-2) to four after the last two matchups between them had been decided by eight points or fewer. Belding 49, Comstock Park 21 Belding (3-1) has run its Ottawa-Kent Conference Silver winning streak to eight with all but one of those victories by double digits as it seeks to repeat as champion. Beal City 50, Houghton Lake 8 Beal City is winning its games by an average score of 47-7 after this one over a much-improved Bobcats team that sits 3-1.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Charlevoix 50, East Jordan 6 Charlevoix (3-1) has handed the first loss this season to its last two opponents, and East Jordan (3-1) very well could go on to contend in the Northern Michigan Football Conference Legacy. This provided the Rayders with more momentum as they head into this week’s matchup with Benzie Central that could eventually decide the NMFC Leaders title. Click for more from the Petoskey News-Review.

Watch list Kingsley 64, Boyne City 13 Kingsley (3-1) is averaging just under 50 points per game after putting up a season high against the Ramblers (2-2), another contender in the NMFC Leaders.

On the move Frankfort 55, Johannesburg-Lewiston 0 Frankfort (4-0) earned its second-straight shutout of the Cardinals (2-2), but the Panthers’ defense has shined all season giving up just under 11 ppg. Traverse City St. Francis 28, Grayling 22 The young Gladiators (2-2) might be finding their stride after two straight losses, settling in against a Grayling team that’s 2-2 and had topped 30 points in all of its first three games. Gaylord 9, Petoskey 0 An impressive defensive stand put Gaylord (4-0) in position to play Cadillac this week for sole possession of first place in the Big North Conference, with Petoskey (2-2) among those hoping to stay in the race with another chance or two coming up to impact it.

Traverse City West defenders pursue a Grand Blanc ball carrier during the Bobcats' 43-7 win.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Jackson Lumen Christi 28, Detroit U-D Jesuit 6 Lumen Christi’s first game as part of the Detroit Catholic League saw the Titans (4-0) give up their first points of the season, and only six in adding to the impressiveness of this victory over last year’s CHSL AA champion Cubs (3-1). Click for more from the Jackson Citizen Patriot.

On the move Napoleon 42, Manchester 21 The Pirates took an important first step as they seek to repeat as league champions, this time of the new Cascades Conference East. Manchester (3-1) had given up only 29 points total over its first three games, but Napoleon (4-0) upped its early scoring average to 42 ppg and its regular-season winning streak to 14.

On the move Adrian 29, Tecumseh 7 Adrian is 4-0 for the first time since 2010 and hadn’t defeated Tecumseh (1-3) since 2011. Grass Lake 42, East Jackson 8 Grass Lake (4-0) also is undefeated at the top of the Cascades Conference East, with Napoleon up next. Ann Arbor Father Gabriel Richard 34, Riverview Gabriel Richard 6 AAGR avenged last season’s 11-point loss to RGR (1-3) to move to 4-0 – giving the Fighting Irish one more win than all of last season and guaranteeing their best finish since 2019.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER Constantine 27, Schoolcraft 21 Constantine (3-1) twice led by double digits and held on to run their winning streak against the Eagles (3-1) to two. The Falcons will start Southwestern Athletic Conference Lakeshore play this week on the best-possible note, especially key as all six league teams area 2-2 or better heading into the league schedule. Click for more from the Three Rivers Commercial-News.

Watch list Dowagiac 39, Parchment 14 Dowagiac has had a mostly rough last three seasons, going a combined 5-20, but head into Lakeland Conference play this week with more wins than all of the last two seasons combined and after handing Parchment (3-1) its lone defeat.  

On the move Benton Harbor 34, Buchanan 27 Benton Harbor (2-2) opened Lakeland play with its third-straight game decided by seven points or fewer, but this one a win over the reigning league champion Bucks (2-2). Watervliet 18, Coloma 16 These two played for the 111th time – ranking 11th among Michigan high school rivalry games – and after the rivalry took a break the last two years. Paw Paw 40, Vicksburg 17 A testament to their tough schedule, the Red Wolves (4-0) made the playoffs last season at 4-5 – and all four of their wins so far this fall are over 2022 playoff teams.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Negaunee 13, Kingsford 12 The Miners started the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper schedule a win down, losing to Gladstone two weeks ago. But the reigning champs are right back in the mix after handing Kingsford a narrow defeat in the teams’ first meeting since 1994. The Flivvers (3-1) had reached 34 points in all three of their wins before Negaunee slowed them down. Click for more from the Iron Mountain Daily News.

Watch list Menominee 44, Calumet 0 With Gladstone, Negaunee and Kingsford handing each other defeats, Menominee (4-0) sits on the top of the Copper standings with those three coming up, but also having given up only six points this season with three shutouts.

On the move Houghton 34, Ishpeming Westwood 16 After two losses to open the fall, Houghton (2-2) has bounced back with two wins and gets Menominee next. Sault Ste. Marie 21, Escanaba 7 The Blue Devils (3-1) met a slightly more familiar opponent in their second game as part of the Big North Conference, adding a second win in two seasons over Escanaba (1-3). Manistique 52, West Iron County 0 After taking an eight-point loss to Ishpeming in Week 2, Manistique has two straight wins (and two straight shutouts) to get to 2-2 – after winning two games total in 2022 and 2021.

West Michigan

HEADLINER Rockford 42, Caledonia 16 The Rams (4-0) hurdled perhaps their toughest obstacle early as they pursue a fifth-straight Ottawa-Kent Conference Red title. Rockford’s defense shut down a Caledonia attack that averaged 42 points per game over its first three, and in doing so also avenged last year’s one-point District Final loss to the eventual Division 1 runner-up Fighting Scots (3-1). Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.

Watch list Muskegon 42, Muskegon Mona Shores 21 The Big Reds (2-2) ran their streak in another of the state’s most competitive rivalries to three straight wins, with M’Khi Guy throwing two touchdown passes and running for another score against the Sailors (2-2).

On the move Allendale 61, Hamilton 38 The Falcons (4-0) are another team on the rise, with their four wins equaling their totals of both of the last two seasons and this victory the only loss for a Hamilton team that at 3-1 has already bested its 2022 finish. Saugatuck 15, Union City 14 The Trailblazers won just two games last season but are 4-0 for the first time since 2016 and with this win over the reigning Big 8 Conference champ Chargers (3-1) their most impressive. Big Rapids 25, Reed City 14 The Cardinals (3-1) earned their first win over Reed City (1-3) since 2009, and in doing so stayed in a tie atop the Central State Activities Association Gold.

8-Player

HEADLINER Carson City-Crystal 45, Merrill 30 Carson City-Crystal (4-0) made its move to 8-player football this season coming off five straight 11-player playoff seasons. The Eagles’ first three wins this fall came against teams that are a combined 1-11, but this one over the reigning Division 1 runner-up Vandals (3-1) tells plenty about how quickly they are advancing in the new format. Click for more from the Greenville Daily News.

Watch list Gobles 53, Martin 16 The Tigers (4-0) have absolutely dominated this season, outscoring their opponents by a combined 237-24 – and that includes this win over reigning Division 1 champion Martin (2-2), which had won the last two meetings with Gobles by a combined 110-6.

On the move Brown City 46, Deckerville 28 The Green Devils (4-0) are in their second season of 8-player and first as part of the North Central Thumb League Stars – and they are tied for first after handing annual contender Deckerville (3-1) its only defeat. Pickford 44, Rudyard 42 By nearly the closest of margins, Pickford (4-0) ended a two-game losing streak to Rudyard (3-1) and after falling 34-6 last season. St. Ignace 30, Indian River Inland Lakes 28 The Saints (4-0) just keep climbing as well, with Inland Lakes (3-1) the third team they’ve handed a first loss this season.

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PHOTOS (Top) Negaunee's Kai Lacar gets a few yards before being tackled by Kingsford's Wyatt Scott (24) and Caleb Kleist (30). (Middle) Traverse City West defenders pursue a Grand Blanc ball carrier during the Bobcats' 43-7 win. (Top photo by Cara Kamps. Middle photo by Terry Lyons.)