Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.

  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.

  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.

  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.

  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

1st & Goal: 2023 Week 4 Preview

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

September 15, 2023

As we rumble into Week 4, the various rankings from media and the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association have begun weighing in on which contenders they view to be in the best in every division.

MI Student AidWe include those MHSFCA rankings on our “Rankings” page, but check out as well the MHSAA’s metric for measuring success – the playoff points page – which factors wins and losses, but also strength of schedule, and with those points used to select the playoff field and seed brackets for the opening rounds of both the 11 and 8-player tournaments.

Those numbers update in real time as results are reported – and there surely will be shifts this weekend thanks to several of the matchups detailed below.

If you don’t attend a game in person, make sure to tune in on MHSAA.tv and check the MHSAA Scores page for the latest. (Games below are Friday unless noted.)

Bay & Thumb

Harbor Beach (3-0) at Ubly (3-0)

Ubly is pushing toward a decade as one of the elite small-school 11-player teams in the state, coming off last season’s Division 8 runner-up finish and led by fourth-year quarterback Evan Peruski who also the team to Ford Field to cap the 2020 season. The Bearcats have won 24 straight regular-season games and two straight over Harbor Beach, including 42-0 a year ago. Before Ubly’s recent rise, the Pirates were the team to chase both from the Greater Thumb Conference East and among Division 8 contenders from that part of the state. They meet this time after deciding the last two GTC East titles and having both opened with three wins against playoff teams from last season.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Frankenmuth (2-1) at Birch Run (3-0), Bay City Western (2-1) at Midland Dow (2-1), Almont (3-0) at North Branch (2-1), Davison (3-0) at Saginaw Heritage (2-1).

Greater Detroit

Detroit Cass Tech (1-2) at Detroit Martin Luther King (1-2)

Although West Bloomfield/Lake Orion would be the game any other week, history gives this matchup top billing at least heading into Friday. Look past the records; King’s losses are to championship contenders in Ohio and Indiana, and Cass Tech’s came to another Division 1 contender in Southfield Arts & Technology and arguably the top team from New Jersey. Throw in last year’s series – King won the first meeting 28-23 on the way to clinching a division title, and Cass four weeks later won the Detroit Public School League final 28-14 – and it matters less that many of the top contributors this fall are filling those spots for the first time.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY West Bloomfield (3-0) at Lake Orion (3-0), Warren Michigan Collegiate (3-0) at Romulus Summit Academy North (3-0), Macomb Dakota (3-0) at Sterling Heights Stevenson (2-1), Canton (2-1) at Northville (3-0).

Mid-Michigan

East Lansing (1-2) at DeWitt (1-1)

East Lansing’s 36-30 win over DeWitt last season kicked off a wild ride through the Capital Area Activities Conference Blue that actually didn’t end with either of them winning or sharing the league title for the first time since 2017. But they’re expected to be back in the mix again and well-tested already this season. DeWitt didn’t have a game last week but came back to defeat Haslett in its opener and lost to arguably the Lansing area’s best in Mason in Week 2, while East Lansing came back big against Okemos last week after opening losses to Portage Central and Hudsonville.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Gladwin (3-0) at Clare (2-1), Montrose (3-0) at Ovid-Elsie (2-1), Williamston (2-1) at Mason (3-0), Charlotte (3-0) at Lansing Sexton (3-0).

Northern Lower Peninsula

Beal City (3-0) at Houghton Lake (3-0)

Beal City is pursuing a third-straight Highland Conference title and hasn’t lost a league game since 2020, and hasn’t been tested a ton this fall giving up only 21 points total with its closest call a 32-14 win over Ravenna in the season opener. Houghton Lake is climbing from a much different place; the Bobcats were 1-8 last season and 2-7 the year before, but have outscored their three opponents this fall by a combined 98-19 – those 98 points one more than they scored all 2022. Two of those wins also avenged losses from last season.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY East Jordan (3-0) at Charlevoix (2-1), Kingsley (2-1) at Boyne City (2-1), Johannesburg-Lewiston (2-1) at Frankfort (3-0), Petoskey (2-1) at Gaylord (3-0).

Southeast & Border

Manchester (3-0) at Napoleon (3-0)

Manchester is coming off its best season since 2015 and has continued the surge with all three wins this fall over opponents that finished 6-3 or better in 2022. Next comes an even bigger test, as Napoleon won the Cascades Conference last season and defeated the Flying Dutchmen 30-25 in league play and 42-13 in a Division 7 District Final. The Cascades split into two divisions beginning this fall, and these two are in the East as this opens the league schedule for both.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Grass Lake (3-0) at East Jackson (2-1), Tecumseh (1-2) at Adrian (3-0), Detroit U-D Jesuit (3-0) at Jackson Lumen Christi (3-0), Richland Gull Lake (2-1) at Parma Western (3-0).

Southwest Corridor

Schoolcraft (3-0) at Constantine (2-1)

After these longtime rivals had to cancel their 2021 game, the series restarted last fall with Constantine emerging 56-22 to break a seven-game Eagles winning streak in the matchup. The Falcons have to be riding high as well after last week’s 22-10 win over Lawton. But Schoolcraft should provide another challenge, especially defensively, as the Eagles have given up only 34 points so far and all of those to 2022 playoff teams Centreville and Kalamazoo United in double-digit victories over the last two weeks.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Saugatuck (3-0) at Union City (3-0), South Haven (2-1) at Lawton (2-1), Dowagiac (2-1) at Parchment (3-0), Portage Northern (3-0) at Kalamazoo Central (1-1).

Upper Peninsula

Kingsford (3-0) at Negaunee (2-1)

A top performance would add another big night to the impressive start of the season for Kingsford – but the Flivvers surely are being cautious despite their early success. They’re rivaling Iron Mountain as the top story in U.P. 11-player football after last week’s 35-12 win over Gladstone – which had defeated Negaunee in Week 2. But the Miners did bounce back last week to get past Calumet, and they likely need a win to keep repeat hopes alive in the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper as Kingsford and Menominee have moved to the top of the standings early.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Menominee (3-0) at Calumet (1-2), Escanaba (1-2) at Sault Ste. Marie (2-1), Hancock (1-2) at Gladstone (2-1), Iron Mountain (3-0) at Gwinn (1-2).

West Michigan

Caledonia (3-0) at Rockford (3-0)

This has been one of the state’s most anticipated matchups after one of the most memorable series of 2022. Rockford defeated Caledonia 38-15 in Week 9 to clinch the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red title outright, while handing the Fighting Scots their first loss. Caledonia won the rematch in a Division 1 District Final two weeks later, 14-13, handing the Rams their only loss while taking a massive step on a run that ended with a runner-up finish at Ford Field. The teams are in different playoff divisions this time – Caledonia will play in Division 2 – but the league title may be up for grabs and some of the most important contributors from last season are again leading the way.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Muskegon (1-2) at Muskegon Mona Shores (2-1), Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central (3-0) at Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern (2-1), Hamilton (3-0) at Allendale (3-0), Whitehall (3-0) at Montague (2-1).

8-Player

St. Ignace (3-0) at Indian River Inland Lakes (3-0)

St. Ignace’s 7-3 finish in 11-player football last fall was its best since 2016, and the Saints have carried that momentum into this season and a new format, topping 40 points all three games and giving up a combined 36 points. After gaining a forfeit Week 1, Inland Lakes has defeated two teams that won seven games last season – Lake Linden-Hubbell and Central Lake – and will provide St. Ignace another test, especially defensively, on a schedule filled with them. The Bulldogs scored 54 and 44 points, respectively, in those wins.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Ontonagon (3-0) at Powers North Central (3-0), Martin (2-1) at Gobles (3-0), Carson City-Crystal (3-0) at Merrill (3-0), Rudyard (3-0) at Pickford (3-0).

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PHOTO A Rockford receiver attempts to pull in a pass while covered closely during the Rams' opening-night win over Muskegon. (Photo by Tim Reilly.)