Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13
October 28, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.
So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:
- A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.
- We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.
- We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.
- We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.
- And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)
And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.
Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.
Observations and answers: 2013
This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.
This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.
Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.
Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.
But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.
Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.
The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.
Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.
Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.
Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.
But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.
That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.
Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.
But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.
It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.
PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.
1st & Goal: 2023 Playoff Week 1 Preview
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
October 26, 2023
Part of the enchantment of high school sports is the relatively small window athletes receive to play them. Most get four seasons – and most football players just two on the varsity team under the frequently and fondly-referenced “Friday night lights.”
That enchantment makes it impossible to undersell the anticipation as another MHSAA Football Playoffs – the 49th – begin tonight.
It will be the first playoffs for thousands of players and the start of the last playoffs for thousands more as 11-Player District Semifinals and 8-Player Regional Semifinals kick off with 128 games, and 16 more Saturday.
The mini heat wave finishing its run through Michigan is another reason to check out a first-round game in person. But if you’re not heading out, you still can watch nearly all of them – as of Thursday evening, 122 of this weekend’s 144 playoff games will be broadcast live on MHSAA.tv, viewable with subscription. Keep up with scores as well and Round 2 matchups as they’re determined on the Football Playoff Scoreboard.
Here are just a handful of the intriguing matchups as this postseason gets underway. Games are Friday unless noted.
11-Player Division 1
Rochester Adams (6-3) at West Bloomfield (7-2) - WATCH
These two rank among the most successful playoff teams in the state over the last three seasons, with West Bloomfield a combined 8-2 in the postseason with a Division 1 championship in 2020, and Adams a combined 7-2 (not counting a COVID-related forfeit in 2020) with a runner-up finish in 2021 after the Highlanders defeated the Lakers 14-13 in a Regional Final during that run. This fall West Bloomfield was third and Adams fourth in the Oakland Activities Association Red, thanks in part to the Lakers' 36-32 win in their Week 5 meeting. West Bloomfield also handed Southfield Arts & Technology its only defeat, 31-20 in Week 8.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Detroit Catholic Central (7-2) at Novi (7-2) - WATCH, St. Clair Shores Lakeview (7-2) at Macomb Dakota (7-2) - WATCH, Detroit Cass Tech (6-3) at Westland John Glenn (7-2) - WATCH.
11-Player Division 2
Muskegon Reeths-Puffer (7-2) at Muskegon Mona Shores (6-3) - WATCH
This is also a rematch, as Mona Shores opened the Ottawa-Kent Conference Green schedule with a 28-10 win over Reeths-Puffer – and in fact, the Rockets are seeking their first win over Shores since 2016. But this also has been Reeths-Puffer’s winningest season since 2013, and they enter this opener coming off impressive back-to-back victories over Zeeland East 35-21 and Zeeland West 14-12, the latter avenging a 2022 defeat. Shores also defeated West, 14-6 two weeks ago, but was edged by East 21-20 in the regular-season finale.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Portage Northern (8-1) at Caledonia (7-2) - WATCH, Birmingham Groves (6-3) at Birmingham Seaholm (8-1) - WATCH, Dexter (6-3) at Allen Park (8-1) - WATCH.
11-Player Division 3
Zeeland East (6-3) at Zeeland West (6-3) - WATCH
Zeeland West has won its last six meetings with its neighbor, including once in the playoffs, since East swept a pair in 2018. The Dux claimed this season’s first matchup 36-13. But that shouldn’t be an indication a repeat is a sure thing. As noted above, East is coming off a one-point win over Mona Shores – avenging a 42-7 loss from a year ago and breaking a two-game losing streak to the Sailors since they rejoined the same league in 2020. West meanwhile has lost three straight games, but those beg for context as well – those defeats came to Muskegon High, Mona Shores and Reeths-Puffer, and all by eight points or fewer. Muskegon is the only team to score more than 14 points on the Dux, and the Big Reds put up just 22 in their six-point Week 7 win.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Battle Creek Harper Creek (6-3) at Parma Western (8-1), Fenton (6-3) at DeWitt (6-2) - WATCH, Detroit Martin Luther King (4-5) at Port Huron (7-2) - WATCH.
11-Player Division 4
Lansing Sexton (8-1) at Portland (9-0)
This is a rematch of the Week 8 decider for the Capital Area Activities Conference White title, and Portland’s 41-0 win over then-undefeated Sexton further emphasized the mightiness of the Raiders’ defense this year – they’ve given up just 47 points and also shut out Berrien Springs last week. Portland is up to No. 3 in the final coaches poll and enters having won District titles in Division 5 the last two seasons (and its Regional two years ago) and with a combined 29-5 record going back to the start of 2021. But Sexton, enjoying its best season since 2017, is ranked No. 10 and certainly has the ability to flip things if it can build up some success on offense and keep Portland’s off the field.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Big Rapids (8-1) at Spring Lake (7-2), Wayland (6-3) at Grand Rapids South Christian (6-3) - WATCH, Croswell-Lexington (7-2) at Harper Woods (6-3).
11-Player Division 5
Gladwin (7-2) at Ogemaw Heights (8-1) - WATCH
The only loss of Ogemaw Heights’ most successful regular season since 2009 came in the opener on the road at reigning Division 5 champion Gladwin, 42-28. The Falcons get the Flying Gs at home this time, and have given up just under 10 points per game on average since that defeat. Ogemaw Heights has downed five playoff teams over those eight games including previously-undefeated Almont 21-7 last week. About 40 miles southeast, Gladwin impressively ran its Jack Pine Conference winning streak to 19 games and three straight championships, and those defeats came last week to Frankenmuth and Week 7 to Pontiac Notre Dame Prep – which are 16-1 between them.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Berrien Springs (5-3) at South Haven (6-3) - WATCH, Flint Hamady (8-0) at Corunna (9-0) - WATCH, Detroit Denby (8-1) at Detroit Southeastern (6-3).
11-Player Division 6
Detroit Old Redford (8-1) at Detroit Edison (6-3), Saturday
Old Redford has built its most successful regular season, and the climb has been stunning. The Ravens didn’t play a game in 2020 or 2021, then went 4-5 last year before doubling their victories this fall – with their only loss in the season opener to playoff team Dearborn Heights Robichaud. Old Redford won the Charter School Conference Silver but should get one of its toughest challenges in Edison, which spent more than a month in the coaches poll top 10 and reached No. 6 on the list on the way to earning six wins for the third time in four seasons and after going just 2-7 a year ago. Edison tied for second in the Charter School Conference Gold behind undefeated Warren Michigan Collegiate.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Kent City (7-2) 39.000 at Hart (8-1) - WATCH, Lake City (6-3) at Manistee (7-2) - WATCH, Buchanan (6-3) at Kalamazoo United (5-4).
11-Player Division 7
Traverse City St. Francis (4-4) at Charlevoix (8-1) - WATCH
This is another fascinating rematch. These two didn’t play in the same league this fall, but they did open against each other with St. Francis winning 41-40 while filling in almost an entirely new starting lineup. The Gladiators were coming off finishing Division 7 runner-up a year ago and had to navigate six more eventual playoff qualifiers – but reached the postseason again, and now a large group of new contributors at the start of the year have a season of experience against strong competition. Charlevoix bounced back and didn’t lose again – or let anyone closer than 13 points on the way to winning a league title and reaching eight wins for the fourth-straight season.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Schoolcraft (7-2) at Lawton (8-1) - WATCH, Sandusky (6-3) at Cass City (7-2) - WATCH, Manchester (7-2) at Napoleon (8-1).
11-Player Division 8
Fowler (8-1) at Ithaca (9-0) - WATCH
The Division 8 bracket is loaded. Six teams are undefeated and five more have lost only once, and this game matches one from each group. Ithaca is playing in Division 8 for the first time and brings a streak of 15 straight league championships, Division 7 District titles two of the last three seasons and a current team that is outscoring its opponents on average 50-5 with shutouts in five of its last six games. But Fowler has seen this caliber of competition. The Eagles’ lone loss was 27-14 to Division 7 contender Pewamo-Westphalia in Week 6, and the Pirates are the only team to score on Fowler since Sept. 1. The Eagles have given up only 53 points this season with six shutouts, and five of those shutouts were of playoff teams including Frankfort, Laingsburg and McBain since the P-W loss.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Hudson (7-2) at Addison (9-0) - WATCH, Frankfort (7-2) at Beal City (8-1) - WATCH, Mount Clemens (5-4) at Riverview Gabriel Richard (5-4) - WATCH.
8-Player Division 1
Mendon (7-2) at Gobles (7-2) - WATCH
Gobles made the switch to 8-player in 2021 and has strung together two straight seven-win seasons, with this fall’s coming against a schedule featuring five teams with winning records. Mendon wasn’t on this year’s slate after a league change, but they’ll meet again after the Hornets won their matchup a year ago 36-6. Gobles has scored 53 points in all of its wins and has its 2022 points total by more than 100. Mendon, last season’s Division 2 runner-up, remains similarly able to match points with most and lost only to still-undefeated Climax-Scotts and Adrian Lenawee Christian.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Alcona (8-1) at Indian River Inland Lakes (8-1) - WATCH, Newberry (7-2) at Norway (7-2) - WATCH. SATURDAY Carson City-Crystal (8-1) at Brown City (9-0) - WATCH.
8-Player Division 2
Crystal Falls Forest Park (7-2) at Lake Linden-Hubbell (6-3), Saturday - WATCH
For more than a decade, this was a notable regular-season finale in the 11-player Great Western Conference, with these two meeting again in the playoffs six times between 2004-15. Forest Park switched to 8-player in 2016, Lake Linden-Hubbell in 2020, and this is the third season in a row they’ll meet in the regular season and playoffs. Forest Park won the Week 6 matchup this fall 36-28, but also won last year’s regular-season matchup 22-14 before the Lakes flipped things in the Regional Semifinal 44-12.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Bay City All Saints (7-2) at Marion (8-0) - WATCH. SATURDAY Au Gres-Sims (7-2) at Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart (8-1) - WATCH, Powers North Central (7-2) at Posen (8-0).
Second Half’s weekly “1st & Goal” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Office of Postsecondary Financial Planning located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 college savings programs (MET/MESP), as well as scholarship and grant programs that help make college Accessible, Affordable and Attainable for you. Connect with MI Student Aid at www.michigan.gov/mistudentaid and find more information on Facebook and X (Twitter) @mistudentaid.
PHOTO DeWitt's Elliott Larner (3) unloads a pass during a Week 9 win over Lansing Waverly. (Photo by TCP-Photography.)