Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.

  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.

  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.

  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.

  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

Chesaning Turnaround Ahead of Schedule with League Title, Playoff Return

By Paul Costanzo
Special for MHSAA.com

October 25, 2023

Brayden Florian knew this was coming eventually.

Bay & ThumbThe Chesaning junior running back and middle linebacker was sure the coaching staff and players were in place for a program turnaround.

But this fast?

“No,” Florian said matter-of-factly. “I definitely saw the progress, and we had gotten better and better since my freshman year. We just kept getting better. I didn’t expect it to happen this fast.”

Chesaning is 8-1 in its second year under head coach Matthew Walter, won the Mid-Michigan Activities Conference for the first time, and – not counting the 2020 COVID season when every team was added to the playoffs – qualified for the postseason for the first time since 2007, playing host to Central Montcalm on Friday.

It’s the best regular season for the program since 2001, the year Chesaning won its second MHSAA Finals title in four years.

You can forgive Florian for not expecting this to happen this quickly. Even his coach had a more long-term plan in place.

“When I took over, my plan was more to build the program than just wins and losses,” Walter said. “Numbers were dwindling. I felt like the community was not happy. I know that winning solves a lot of problems, but when I came in I wanted to make sure I built a program from the bottom up. We brought back (youth) tackle football. We have (youth) flag in the fall and spring. That’s kind of where you have to start. Once you do that, you have people buy in up higher and higher into middle school, then high school. I didn’t expect it to be this quick. I kind of had like a five or six-year plan, just trying to generate some excitement.”

It didn’t take long, however, to realize that maybe his timeline wasn’t accelerated enough.

Ben Fowler (63) prepares to lead his team onto the field. In Year 1, Chesaning went 5-4, its first winning record since 2014. And while some of the losses were lopsided, Walter said people both in and out of the program noticed that things were looking up.

So, heading into this season, there was complete buy-in all around. And while Walter had been laying a foundation for future success, his 5-6 year plan was becoming a 2-year one.

“We have a great group of kids right now,” he said. “They work really hard, and they bought in right away.”

Chesaning players were so bought in, that not even a Week 1 loss to Bath could deter them. In fact, when Walter was cleaning up in the locker room following the game, he found that his team had left him – and themselves – a note on the whiteboard.

“It said, ‘The 1998 team started 0-1,’” Walter said. “I was like, ‘Wow, they know that?’”

The 1998 team won Chesaning’s first Finals title, rattling off 12 straight wins after dropping its opener against then arch-rival Millington.

Like this year’s version of Chesaning, the 1998 team had much of its production come from a stellar junior class. Walter said he’s also been told of the extreme competitiveness of that team, something he sees while watching his current players not only on the field, but when they’re in practice, or even coaching youth flag football against one another.

While Walter wants his team to create its own identity, the comparisons certainly aren’t a bad thing.

“We talk about it – about our history and how much history we’ve made and our team has made,” senior receiver and defensive end Keighan Stoddard said. “It’s a really big inspiration, honestly.”

Wherever the inspiration came from, it worked. After the loss against Bath, Chesaning rattled off eight straight wins with an average margin of victory of 24.8 points per game.

Chesaning knocked off rivals New Lothrop and Montrose – both on the road – for the first time since 2005.

Those wins came behind a dynamic run game, led by Florian. He finished the regular season with 1,689 yards and 17 touchdowns on the ground. He did so behind linemen Seth Schlicht, Braden Burtch, Ben Fowler, Braydn Wendling, and John Talbot. Only Fowler is a senior.

Brayden Florian (11) gets to the edge against Ovid-Elsie.Junior quarterback Max Volk threw just 100 passes on the year, but he accumulated 801 yards and 14 TDs. Florian caught five of those touchdowns, as did 6-foot-6 senior wideout Mason Struck. Stoddard, an all-state selection at receiver a year ago, is also an option and has a pair of touchdown grabs. But his focus has been shifted more toward defensive end, a new position in which he’s flourished with 58 tackles, 12 for loss, and six sacks.

“Anything to help my teammates,” he said. “Anything to help the team out, I’ll do anything. As long as we get that win, it doesn’t matter.”

With 2023 giving off feelings of 1998 and 2001, the Friday night atmosphere from those days has also come back to Chesaning.

It’s been evident on game nights, and even during the playoff selection show, when a team trip to the Riverfront Bar and Grill turned into a community event.

“I told the families that we were going to (be there) at 5, and at 6 they were more than welcome to come down and join us,” Walter said. “By 5:30, that place was packed. There were no spots; it was standing room only.”

So when Chesaning hosts a playoff game Friday night for the first time since 2001, the anticipation is an atmosphere not seen since.

“It’s the first playoff game in a long time, and one we actually earned,” Florian said. “I think it’s going to be a big-time atmosphere.”

Paul CostanzoPaul Costanzo served as a sportswriter at The Port Huron Times Herald from 2006-15, including three years as lead sportswriter, and prior to that as sports editor at the Hillsdale Daily News from 2005-06. He can be reached at [email protected] with story ideas for Genesee, Lapeer, St. Clair, Sanilac, Huron, Tuscola, Saginaw, Bay, Arenac, Midland and Gladwin counties.

PHOTOS (Top) Chesaning’s Mason Struck (27) goes high to get his hands on the ball in the end zone during his team’s win over Durand. (Middle) Ben Fowler (63) prepares to lead his team onto the field. (Below) Brayden Florian (11) gets to the edge against Ovid-Elsie. (Photos courtesy of the Chesaning football program.)