Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.

  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.

  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.

  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.

  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

1st & Goal: 2023 8-Player Finals Preview

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

November 17, 2023

Northern Michigan University on Saturday will host two recent 8-player football champions looking to build on their recent success – and two more contenders hoping to celebrate at Superior Dome for the first time.

MI Student AidMartin in Division 1 will be seeking its second-straight title against Indian River Inland Lakes, which will be appearing in its first MHSAA Final in either football format.

Adrian Lenawee Christian in Division 2 will attempt to win a third title in four seasons, while Marion is making its first championship game trip in more than three decades and after a series of just-misses the last few years.

Martin and Inland Lakes kick off at 11 a.m., and Lenawee Christian and Marion follow at 2 p.m. Tickets may be purchased online through NMU or at the door – click for details – and both games will be broadcast live on MHSAA.tv. Audio of both games will be streamed live on MHSAANetwork.com.

Below is a look at all four finalists:

Division 1

MARTIN 
Record/Rank: 10-2, No. 9 
Coach: Brad Blauvelt, sixth season (56-11) 
League finish: Tied for second in Southwest Michigan 8-Man Football League White 
Championship history: 8-Player Division 1 champion 2022, 11-Player Class D champion 1987.  
Best wins: 42-34 over No. 5 Kingston in Semifinal, 28-6 over No. 10 Gobles in Regional Final, 44-18 (Regional Semifinal) and 28-14 over Marcellus. 
Players to watch: QB/DB Gavin Meyers, 6-2/170 jr. (1,058 yards/11 TDs passing, 1,171 yards/11 TDs rushing); RB/LB Haylen Buell, 5-8/150 soph. (967 yards/13 TDs rushing), WR/DB Taegan Harris, 5-10/150 sr. (538 yards/6 TDs receiving); TE/LB Abe Dykstra, 5-10/195 sr. (199 yards/3 TDs receiving). 
Outlook: Martin graduated three all-staters including its two main offensive contributors and still finds itself back where it defeated Merrill 74-24 to finish last season. Meyers has stepped nicely into the dual-threat quarterback role after all-stater J.R. Hildebrand graduated, and he has the Clippers averaging 38.5 points per game. The team’s only losses came to undefeated Bridgman and Gobles, and Martin avenged the latter in the Regional Final. Dykstra was the team’s second-leading tackler in last season’s Final, and Buell also was a top contributor on that side of the ball before taking on a large share of the rushing load this fall.  

INDIAN RIVER INLAND LAKES 
Record/Rank: 11-1, No. 6 
Coach: Travis Meyer, fifth season (35-17) 
League finish: First in Ski Valley Conference 
Championship history: Has never played in an MHSAA Final. 
Best wins: 12-0 over No. 2 Pickford in Semifinal, 40-36 over No. 3 St. Ignace in Regional Final, 22-6 over No. 7 Alcona in Regional Semifinal, 54-46 over Division 2 No. 10 Lake Linden-Hubbell.  
Players to watch: QB/DB Aidan Fenstermaker, 5-9/160 jr. (1,695 yards/25 TDs rushing, 1,090 yards/14 TDs passing); RB/LB Payton Teuthorn, 6-0/190 sr. (219 yards/3 TDs rushing, 2 TDs receiving); TE/DB Jacob Willey, 6-0/200 sr. (514 yards/6 TDs receiving); RB/DB Andre Bradford, 5-10/180 soph. (400 yards/6 TDs rushing, 2 TDs receiving). (Only Fenstermaker’s stats include the Semifinal). 
Outlook: Inland Lakes' two winningest seasons have come over the last three, and the Bulldogs’ only loss this fall was 30-28 to St. Ignace in Week 4 – with that defeat avenged in the Regional Final. The playoffs have included two of the most impressive defensive performances in either 8-player bracket, as Pickford averaged 47 points per game heading into their matchup and Alcona was averaging 52 ppg. Inland Lakes had 21 interceptions entering the Semifinals, with Fenstermaker snagging seven and sophomore Wyatt Hanel five. Willey earned an all-state honorable mention last season. 

Division 2

ADRIAN LENAWEE CHRISTIAN 
Record/Rank: 12-0, No. 1 
Coach: Bill Wilharms, 10th season (91-24) 
League finish: First in Southern Central Athletic Association East 
Championship history: 8-Player Division 1 champion 2021 and 2020. 
Best wins: 42-14 over Deckerville in Semifinal, 56-16 over Climax-Scotts in Regional Final, 48-28 over Kingston, 73-20 over Mendon. 
Players to watch: WR/CB Jesse Miller, 6-0/175 sr. (537 yards/8 TDs receiving); QB/S Sam Lutz, 5-7/165 sr. (2,003 yards/32 TDs passing, 973 yards/27 TDs rushing); RB/CB Blake Drogowski, 6-0/175 sr. (502 yards/7 TDs rushing, 513 yards/8 TDs receiving); WR/LB Paul Towler, 6-2/185 sr. (550 yards/8 TDs receiving). 
Outlook: This season’s Lenawee Christian run has been reminiscent of the undefeated seasons of 2020 and 2021, as the Cougars have defeated their opponents on average 54-10. Kingston at 20 points provided the closest challenge. Junior back-up quarterback Brenner Powers has run for 513 yards and seven scores and thrown for three more, and senior tight end Easton Boggs has been another significant target with a team-high 37 catches for 524 yards and seven touchdowns heading into last weekend. Lutz ran for three TDs and threw for three in the Semifinal win. 

MARION 
Record/Rank: 11-0, No. 2 
Coach: Chad Grundy, 14th season (102-45) 
League finish: First in West Michigan D League. 
Championship history: 11-Player Class DD champion 1990. 
Best wins: 42-36 over No. 10 Lake Linden-Hubbell in Semifinal, 48-6 over No. 4 Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart in Regional Final, 64-14 over Bay City All Saints in Regional Semifinal, 62-0 over Mesick.  
Players to watch: QB/LB Collin McCrimmon, 5-8/180 soph. (1,006 yards/18 TDs passing, 679 yards/10 TDs rushing); RB/DB Gavin Prielipp, 5-10/180 sr. (964 yards/16 TDs rushing, 519 yards/10 TDs receiving); FB/LB Cole Meyer, 6-2/210 jr. (749 yards/9 TDs rushing, 289 yards/4 TDs receiving); C/NG Hayden Ostrowski, 5-10/240 sr. 
Outlook: After running into eventual Division 2 champion Powers North Central in Semifinals the last three seasons, Marion broke through to take the next step this fall. The Eagles had four shutouts and gave up eight points total over their first five games and still haven’t given up more than 14 points in a game except once, in their Semifinal win. The offense, meanwhile, is averaging 55 points per game and gaining 9.8 yards per rush with McCrimmon keeping defenders on their toes with an incredible 32.5 yards per completion. Prielipp also has 10 interceptions to go with his offensive output. 

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