Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13
October 28, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.
So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:
- A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.
- We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.
- We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.
- We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.
- And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)
And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.
Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.
Observations and answers: 2013
This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.
This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.
Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.
Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.
But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.
Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.
The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.
Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.
Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.
Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.
But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.
That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.
Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.
But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.
It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.
PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.
1st & Goal: 2023 11-Player Semifinals Preview
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
November 17, 2023
No flashy or fact-packed introduction is necessary this weekend to tie together the remaining 11-player football games across the state.
Saturday's winners advance to Ford Field, and that says it all.
See below for a glance at all 16 Semifinals. All kick off at 1 p.m. except for Menominee/North Muskegon, which begins at 3 p.m. Follow along in person or watch all of them on MHSAA.tv, and keep up with the scores as they come in on the Football Playoff Scoreboard.
Division 1
Davison (12-0) vs. Belleville (12-0) at Novi – WATCH
Belleville’s winning streak is up to 37 games, and the Tigers have won all three playoff games by at least 41 points. Junior quarterback Bryce Underwood is up to 2,967 yards and 37 touchdowns on 159-for-232 passing. Davison will try to limit Belleville after holding Rockford to 14 points last week in arguably its most impressive defensive performance. A running game led by junior AJ Hill (1,488 yards, 19 TDs rushing) could take some off some of the pressure.
Southfield Arts & Technology (11-1) vs. West Bloomfield (10-2) at Troy – WATCH
Southfield A&T gets a chance to avenge its lone loss, as West Bloomfield won their Week 8 meeting 31-20. Senior quarterback Isaiah Marshall has been one of the most dynamic playmakers in the state for multiple seasons. West Bloomfield avenged one of its two losses this season with last week’s 21-20 win over Clarkston and has one of the top pass combos in the state with senior quarterback Requez Nance (2,497 yards/21 TDs) and junior receiver Elisha Durham (1,010 yards, 10 TDs).
Division 2
East Lansing (10-2) vs. Muskegon (10-2) at Greenville – WATCH
East Lansing has won 10 straight games to reach its first Semifinal since 2007. A balanced offense is enjoying arguably its most impressive stretch, and a big drive is a running game led by juniors Jace Clarizio (1,209 yards, 9.0 per carry, 16 TDs) and Dwataye Sams Jr. (965 yards, 9.8 per carry, 13 TDs). Muskegon has run for 3,950 yards this season in making the Semifinals for the seventh time in eight seasons, with a dynamic group putting up similar numbers. Senior quarterback M’Khi Guy (1,636 yards/23 TDs) is averaging 10.9 yards per carry, senior running back Jakob Price (842/17) is averaging 8.2 and senior slot Destin Piggee (951/10) is averaging 14.9 yards per carry.
Waterford Mott (10-2) vs. Warren De La Salle Collegiate (10-2) at Troy Athens – WATCH
The two-time reigning champion Pilots graduated their offensive leader for those two title runs but are keyed by another talented dual-threat quarterback in junior Sante Gasperoni (903 yards/14 TDs rushing, 1,876 yards/20 TDs passing). De La Salle’s only losses were to Davison in the season opener and Ohio power Toledo Central Catholic. Mott is making its first trip to a Semifinal paced by another skilled signal-caller with massive numbers – senior Kalieb Osborne had run for 1,865 yards and 25 touchdowns and thrown for 3,532 yards and 35 scores.
Division 3
Zeeland West (9-3) vs. Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central (11-1) at Holland West Ottawa – WATCH
Forest Hills Central is one more win from returning to Ford Field after finishing Division 2 runner-up a year ago, and senior quarterback Mason McDonald is a catalyst again after stepping into the lineup due to an injury for the latter part of last year’s run. He’s thrown for 1,398 yards and 18 touchdowns and run for 649 yards and nine scores. West’s first Semifinal trip since 2015 has been driven in part by another balanced rushing attack that’s piled up 3,258 yards with senior Rolando Robelin leading the way with 762 and 15 TDs on the ground.
Detroit Martin Luther King (7-5) vs. Mason (12-0) at Chelsea – WATCH
This is a rematch of Semifinals from the last two seasons, both won by King as the Crusaders went on to back-to-back Division 3 championships. Mason will try to take its turn this time with nearly the entire lineup back from last season including four-year running back AJ Martel, who has gained 1,293 yards (9.0 per carry) and 25 touchdowns this fall and is the program’s all-time leading rusher. King’s losses were to Division 1 Cass Tech twice and three out-of-state powers, and the defense can counter with a standout senior end in Marquise White, who has 12 sacks and 10 tackles for loss.
Division 4
Grand Rapids South Christian (9-3) vs. Portland (12-0) at Ada Forest Hills Eastern – WATCH
Reigning Division 4 champion South Christian is coming off a 55-35 win over Big Rapids and its highest scoring output since opening night, and senior receiver Jake Vermaas has followed up a monster Finals performance last year with a monster 2023 catching 79 passes for 1,485 yards and 19 touchdowns as junior Carson Vis has directed the attack. Portland’s task got taller when leading rusher Caden Thelen (1,496 yards/23 TDs rushing) was lost with an injury at the end of the Regional Final. But the Raiders have run for 3,323 yards total, and junior quarterback Dominic Novara has provided another threat throwing for 1,008 yards and 16 touchdowns – or a score on every third completion.
Goodrich (11-1) vs. Harper Woods (9-3) at Livonia Franklin – WATCH
Goodrich also is a game away from a Ford Field return after finishing Division 4 runner-up a year ago, and the Martians have already outscored last year’s team thanks in part to the powerful running of junior Chase Burnett (1,746 yards/23 TDs rushing), who has gained nearly two-thirds of the team’s yardage on the ground. By now, no one should be sleeping on Harper Woods despite its three losses – those defeats came to Division 1 Southfield A&T and Lake Orion and Division 2 Birmingham Groves, and wins over Clarkston and Roseville certainly were attention grabbers. Sophomore quarterback Nate Rocheleau has completed 71 percent of his passes for 1,836 yards and 23 scores.
Division 5
Frankenmuth (11-1) vs. Grand Rapids Catholic Central (11-1) at Ithaca – WATCH
These two met in the 2020 Division 5 Final and a 2021 Semifinal, and Frankenmuth then finished runner-up a year ago with GRCC losing to eventual champion Gladwin in a Semifinal on the other side of the bracket. The Cougars can count wins over South Christian, River Rouge and Grand Rapids West Catholic among their most impressive, with senior Kellen Russell-Dixon averaging 10.9 yards per carry for the season (with 1,560 yards/22 TDs rushing total). Frankenmuth counters with a defense that’s given up only 807 rushing yards despite facing Goodrich (see above) and a powerful attack from Kingsford among others. Senior quarterback Jack Rich has stepped in to lead the Eagles with 1,184 yards and 19 scores rushing while throwing for another eight TDs.
Flat Rock (9-3) vs. Corunna (12-0) at Ypsilanti Lincoln – WATCH
Flat Rock is playing in its first Semifinal since 1976, and Corunna its first since 1996. The Rams bounced back from a midseason 1-3 stretch to score a combined 201 points over their last four wins, which were all by 30 or more. Corunna has given up only 94 points all season – never more than 18 in a game – and only a combined 42 over three playoff wins despite playing undefeated opponents in two of them. The senior Bower twins are playing major roles; Wyatt, the quarterback, has thrown for 2,191 yards and 25 touchdowns and run for 943 and 15, respectively; while split end Tarick has caught 41 passes for 1,289 yards (30.2 per catch) and 18 scores.
Division 6
Reed City (9-3) vs. Kingsley (10-2) at Cadillac – WATCH
Reed City’s repeat run to the Semifinals has come after a 1-3 start – including a 46-12 season-opening loss to Kingsley. But the Coyotes have reached 40 points six times during their eight-game winning streak and have pounded defenses with senior running backs Max Hammond (1,343 yards/18 TDs rushing) and John Ondrus (1,365/13). Kingsley has stayed in stride, with its 583 points this season more than the Stags scored in any of their other three 10-win seasons over the last five years – and even more than they scored in going 12-1 in 2019. Senior Eli Graves has run for 1,654 yards and 20 scores, caught five touchdown passes and scored twice on kickoff returns.
Ovid-Elsie (8-4) vs. Almont (11-1) at Grand Blanc – WATCH
After stunning contender Constantine in last week’s Regional Final, Ovid-Elsie takes on another opponent that might be considered the team to beat. Almont’s only loss was Week 9 to Division 5 Ogemaw Heights, and the Raiders have impressed including edging another favorite in Warren Michigan Collegiate in the District Final. Junior Chase Battani leads the rushing attack with 1,047 yards and 15 touchdowns and also has 85 tackles with 11 tackles for loss at linebacker. Ovid-Elsie similarly has a balanced offensive attack, but junior quarterback Tryce Tokar helps make it so throwing for 1,224 yards and 18 scores and rushing for a team-high 814 yards and 13 TDs.
Division 7
Menominee (10-2) vs. North Muskegon (12-0) at Gaylord – WATCH
North Muskegon’s first Semifinal since 1986 has come off two wins by a combined four points, and the Norseman take on a Menominee team that’s had only one single-digit game – win or lose – in making its longest run since finishing Division 5 runner-up in 2016. These Maroons are more balanced than the run-heavy teams that many associate with the program, but they still dominate on the ground with senior Landan Bardowski leading a 3,200-yard rush attack with 1,343 and 25 touchdowns. North Muskegon’s rushing and passing yardage and touchdown totals are nearly identical, but junior quarterback James Young definitely pops off the page with 2,460 yards and 31 scores through the air.
Millington (12-0) vs. Jackson Lumen Christi (11-1) at Westland John Glenn – WATCH
The reigning champion Titans are a three-point Week 8 loss to Division 3 Gaylord from an undefeated season so far, and they’ve done it in part with one of their most impressive defenses in at least a decade giving up just 7.1 points per game. Millington’s defense has been similarly sturdy, giving up only nine per game during a run that’s included two one-point wins. Junior Dallas Walsh is among those hoping to break through for the Cardinals; he’s run for 1,153 yards and 16 touchdowns this fall.
Division 8
Beal City (11-1) vs. Ubly (12-0) at Mt. Morris – WATCH
This is Ubly’s fifth-straight Semifinal, and the only team to keep the Bearcats from Ford Field the two years they fell short was Beal City with a one-point win in the 2019 matchup and five-point victory in 2021. Ubly has run for more than 4,100 yards led by senior Canden Peruski, who is averaging 11.7 per carry for 1,485 total to go with 21 touchdowns on the ground – he’s one of five Ubly rushers with at least 10 rushing scores. Beal City is giving up only 8.6 points per game and has an offensive playmaker in senior Jamisen Latham, who has run for 827 yards and 10 scores and also caught 10 touchdown passes.
Riverview Gabriel Richard (8-4) vs. Ottawa Lake Whiteford (12-0) at Adrian College – WATCH
Reigning Division 8 champion Whiteford has won 26 straight games since falling in a 2021 Semifinal, and the Bobcats are doing it again this fall with a defense giving up nine points per game and with five players scoring between 8-17 touchdowns and freshman quarterback Tre Eitniear throwing for 949 yards and 14 scores. Gabriel Richard will attempt to transform its first Semifinal appearance into its first Ford Field trip with a similarly-balanced attack led by junior quarterback Nick Sobush (1,256 yards/13 TDs passing, 8 TDs rushing) and junior running back Joey Calhoun (858 yards/16 TDs rushing, 5 TDs receiving).
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PHOTO Ubly's Seth Maurer (30) takes on a pair of Ithaca defenders during last week's Regional Final win. (Click for more from High School Sports Scene.)