![](/sites/default/files/imported/Photos/190806_MPR_2H.jpg)
Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
![East Kentwood’s Brody Conlon (10) returned to the field this fall with his high school team.](/sites/default/files/2023-10/231018_Conlon_2H.png)
East Kentwood Soccer Provides Conlon Bridge Back to Health, Top Form
By
Dean Holzwarth
Special for MHSAA.com
October 18, 2023
KENTWOOD – Six months ago, East Kentwood junior standout Brody Conlon couldn’t imagine sprinting down the soccer field and delivering a booming shot to the back of the net.
An unfortunate diagnosis had put his budding soccer career on pause.
In January, Conlon was told by doctors that he had ulcerative colitis. The disease prevented him from playing soccer or attending school for five months.
Conlon returned to the sport he loves this fall to help lead the Falcons to a successful season.
“If you told me six months ago that I was able to play 80 minutes, pretty much every game for a whole high school season, I honestly wouldn't believe you,” said Conlon, who recorded 11 goals and 22 assists.
“But high school soccer is so special and was definitely a great way to bring me back into the sport again after being out for such a long time.”
Last November Conlon, a nationally-ranked midfielder, was in Florida with his Midwest United Region II ODP team when he felt sick and his stomach was hurting during games.
He returned home to undergo testing, and after the diagnosis started on a drug protocol and heavy steroids.
Conlon basically was bedridden from January to May.
“I was definitely upset, and it was tough because I couldn't do things that I've always done like soccer and being at school every day. But I learned to cope with it pretty quick and embrace it, and I think I did pretty well getting out of it,” Conlon said. “I kept going through the day like it wasn’t affecting me as much as it was, and eventually I think my mind overcame it.
“The key was staying positive. Negativity builds up so you have to stay positive, even in the tougher moments. That’s when you have to pull through. There were days where I would start to feel better and then I would crash and burn again so it was tough because it was like a mind game, but eventually I got used to it.”
Ulcerative colitis is a chronic inflammatory bowel disease in which abnormal reactions of the immune system cause inflammation and ulcers on the inner lining of the large intestine. It can develop at any age, but the disease is more likely to develop in people between the ages of 15 and 30.
Conlon is the son of former East Kentwood coach and current Byron Center girls soccer coach John Conlon, who won 376 games guiding the Falcons from 2000-21.
“The whole last year has been a bit of a whirlwind,” John Conlon said. “Brody had been telling me for five months that he had a "disease" and it just wasn't diagnosed yet. When we were told by doctors that he had ulcerative colitis, it was a real shock to the system because we truly didn't know much about the disease.
“We were told it was in the same autoimmune class as Crohn's. To be honest, my wife Kelly and I had to read everything we could on it because we were unfamiliar. What stood out right away is that every patient responds differently to the protocols and drug protocols for the disease. He tends to have a pretty severe case.”
The experience took a toll on the family.
“What was hard for me was to see my son struggling physically, and as a parent I could only offer the advice that was given to us by physicians,” John Conlon continued. “In July, we started to see some improvement from the drug Rinvoq. We spoke with Luke Ruff (Brody’s MLS coach) who was amazing and fully agreed that high school would be a good bridge to get Brody back to where he needs to be.”
Brody Conlon showed little effect this fall as he shined while catapulting the Falcons to a 12-5-1 record.
East Kentwood’s season ended with a disappointing 2-0 loss to Byron Center in District play.
“I was definitely happy with how I played, battling two things at once with the pressure of having a good season then also the stomach stuff, but I think I did pretty well with that,” Brody Conlon said. “We had a great season, and soccer can be brutal. You have to be at your best every game, and the state tournament is where you have to be the best at.
“It was tough because no one likes losing, but I was able to play with the guys I’ve known forever so in the end the positives outweigh the negatives in this situation.”
Falcons assistant coach Carl Warfield, who began with the program under John Conlon and has continued the last two seasons with current head coach Giuseppe Barone, said they would pull Brody from games to give him breaks, but "I can count on one hand the number of times this season he asked for one during a game, and even then he wanted right back in to keep supporting the team.
"The days after games could be really tough on him," Warfield continued. "The pain would sometimes keep him from coming to school the day after a game. Brody really has been a study in courage and determination that anyone could draw inspiration from. He has maintained his grades and shown constant leadership all season while dealing with his disease."
Conlon also was dealing with the loss of a former East Kentwood standout who he idolized as a young kid.
Nermin Crnkic, who helped the Falcons win three Division 1 championships and played professionally, was found dead in his apartment in early July after a heart attack.
“That had a huge effect on me,” Conlon said. “I’ve grown up around Nermin, and he was my idol when I was growing up in soccer. It was definitely a huge blow to me, but it was motivation for me to play and play for him.
“I was number seven my freshman year, but after hearing the news I decided to take number 10 and play for Nermin this year.”
John Conlon is amazed by the way his son has handled his condition.
“Brody is as tough a young man as anyone I have been around,” he said. “He battles this disease every day and has handled it more maturely than I could have at the same age.
“I'm sure there are other athletes out there battling similar diseases or even more difficult situations. I think Brody's goal is to show the world that an obstacle will never stop him, and hopefully that inspires young players. It's the toughest thing I have ever dealt with as a parent, but Brody handles it with dignity and grace.”
Added Warfield: "I have coached a lot of players, but Brody’s determination to compete and not let his disease stop him from playing the game he loves so passionately is truly amazing. He has been an inspiration to every player on the team and (I) truly believe that his efforts and determination were a large part of our success this season."
Brody Conlon said the high school season “took a lot out of me,” but he’s expected to rejoin his club team at some point.
He remains optimistic about his future.
“It's one of those diseases that the doctor says I could have for the rest of my life, or it could just go away,” he said. “I’m just going to keep doing me and being me. Everyone has something that affects them, but you just have to keep pushing through it and better days will come. I’ve progressed a lot this year, and I believe I will keep improving.”
Dean Holzwarth has covered primarily high school sports for Grand Rapids-based WOOD-TV for five years after serving at the Grand Rapids Press and MLive for 16 years along with shorter stints at the Ionia Sentinel and WZZM. Contact him at [email protected] with story ideas for Allegan, Kent and Ottawa counties.
PHOTOS (Top) East Kentwood’s Brody Conlon (10) returned to the field this fall with his high school team. (Middle) Brody Conlon, far right, takes a photo with past East Kentwood star Nermin Crnkic, center, two summers ago. (Below) Conlon reached double-digit goals and assists this season. (Photos courtesy of the Conlon family.)