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Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
![Parchment’s Darius Baker, left, controls possession during a game against Allegan.](/sites/default/files/2023-10/231017_Parchment_2H.png)
Parchment Team On Verge of Never Playing Putting Off End As Long As Possible
By
Pam Shebest
Special for MHSAA.com
October 17, 2023
PARCHMENT — With just five returning players and no coach, things looked bleak for the Parchment soccer team at the beginning of summer.
Boy, have things changed.
Former football offensive line coach Jesse Roder agreed to take the head soccer coach’s job and, with some intensive recruiting, the Panthers not only fielded a team this season but are headed into tonight’s Division 3 District Semifinal with an 11-6-1 record.
Those 11 wins are two more than the last three years combined and make this the first time in 14 years Parchment has had double-digit wins.
In fact, the Panthers’ record over the previous three seasons was 9-41-3 overall.
Athletic director Brennan Davis credits Roder for the turnaround.
“Our first-year coach has done an excellent job creating a positive environment for the team,” Davis said. “He is focused on building character and camaraderie within the program. Academics, participation, relationships, reliability are all important to Coach Roder.”
The players echo those accolades.
Junior goalkeeper Brady Caswell said it was an angry team the past two seasons with a lot of fighting among teammates.
“This year, everyone’s excited to play, ready to play, a little hungry to play, and I love that,” Caswell said. “Everybody works hard, and that’s the big change.
“You can see it out there. We’re faster, we’re stronger, we have more ambition this year because no one pushed each other before.”
He credits the team’s defense for his own success this year.
“That’s one thing that has changed a lot over these last couple years,” the keeper said. “I used to see 20 or 30 shots a game and we’ve cut that down to about half, which gives me a way better chance at saving shots and less chance of getting injured.”
Major choice
Roder had a big decision to make before taking the head coaching job: His son, Brady Newington, is a senior lineman on the Panthers football team.
But Roder, who played soccer in high school while growing up in Garden in the Upper Peninsula, liked the challenge of turning the soccer program around.
Roder, who also coaches powerlifting and track, recruited from those ranks.
“Most of our athletes are first-year soccer players,” he said. “I approached a bunch of my powerlifters and told them I thought it would be right up their alley, so let’s give it a shot, and they did.”
Because of their dismal record the last few years, the Panthers have been underdogs in most of their games this season, including their District Quarterfinal last week, a 2-1 shootout win over South Haven.
“Last year they beat us 8-0,” Roder said. “We knew they were going to be a little confident, but our team’s philosophy starts with, ‘We’re going to outwork everybody in everything we do.’
“We do an hour conditioning every day when we have practice. We played 100 minutes of soccer last night, and not a lick of them was tired.”
Roder also mandates lifting two days a week and has his own solution to any in-team fighting, holding players accountable.
“We have a three-strikes-and-you’re-out rule,” he said. “If you argue with a teammate once and I warn you about it, you’re sent home and you miss the next game.
“Do it again, you miss another game. You do it a third time, you’re off the team.”
The coach has given out just one warning all season.
Key players step up
Freshman Cameron Wagner, who leads the team with 26 goals, made an immediate impact.
“That kid’s vision of the field and his soccer IQ at the age of 15 is leaps and bounds beyond many coaches,” Roden said. “He’s got a real bright future in front of him.”
Wagner and teammate Caden Ragan were selected to the Southwestern Athletic Conference all-conference team Saturday.
Familiar with past Parchment teams, Wagner figured this season would be more of the same.
“I wasn’t going to take it seriously, but thought it would be good for conditioning,” the freshman said.
“Once (the season) started, it became more like a family.”
Wagner credits the coach with his success.
“The coach made me condition a lot, which helped me,” he said. “He changed dribble moves which I couldn’t even think of. At home, now I do the drills he taught me.”
Ragan was the one who fired the winning shot last week.
“I was the fourth (kicker) and I took the (shot) before the other person,” Ragan said. “Brady saved their fourth and saved us the game.”
Roder said the goalkeeper has been strong all season and is the most analytical and intelligent person he has met as far as goalkeeping goes.
“During the game, he watches people and the way they play the ball off their foot,” the coach said. “He sees which way they go with the ball more often than not.
“So when we got into the shootout situation (in Districts), he actually was telling the ref before he walked up there which way the kid was going to go, and he guessed right every single time. He didn’t get to all the balls, but he still managed to pull off a couple stops which gave us the win.”
Another captain who has been on the team all four years is central defensive midfielder Ty Mulka.
“First two years weren’t the best,” he said. “My friends kept me on the team. This year was our best year.”
If Parchment did not field a team this year, “I was afraid we’d have to merge with our rival school, Comstock,” he said.
The coach said Mulka has been a workhorse.
“He’s been here every single day for everything,” Roder said. “He’s never missed, and he has a relentless work ethic.
“For being a small guy (5-foot-10, 150 pounds) he loves to put a body on people, so he plays a really physical style of soccer. Does a great job seeing the field, and he’s got a laser of a shot.”
Senior center midfielder Wyatt Nieboer said, “I thought 100 percent there would not be a team this year. I found out during the summer.
“I was just happy to play. I knew there was a new coach, and I heard he was really good, which he is, but I didn’t think there was going to be a massive change like there is.”
Roder said Nieboer is a “high energy, a bigger-bodied kid (5-8, 190). His work ethic will not let people beat him. He’s a honey badger.”
Not ready to end
Having tasted success this season, Ragan said the team is not ready to end it.
“The people want to play more,” the junior said. “We’ve had more practices that are actually helping us as a team.
“Things like the weight room are helping build the team and make us stronger, which helps us win games.”
Roder said Ragan, who is one of the captains, has good leadership qualities.
“He has a natural good touch on the ball,” he said. “He’s very aggressive, very physically dominating. Does a great job going up to get balls, contesting people.”
The Panthers will have a tough test tonight when they host Grand Rapids South Christian (12-4-2), ranked seventh in the state in Division 3 and coming off a bye.
“They’re really good,” Roder said. “They move the ball really, really well. It’s going to be a tough test.
“The kids are excited about soccer around here, and that’s something we want to bring back. We’ve got eight seniors on the squad, probably the last time they’re going to play, so we’re trying to eke out as much time as we can.”
Caswell said all the credit goes to the coach.
“Thank Coach Roder for helping change everything here,” the goalkeeper said. “He’s been one of the biggest parts in changing the culture, changing the team, changing how we play soccer.”
Other seniors on the team are Devin Wilson, Myles Brooks, Kriss Patel, Tyler Lingbeek, Darius Baker and Akhil Veecumsee. Juniors are Keagan Cole, Trey Sukola, Conner Moynihan, Elijah Damron-Webster and Luka Lagina, while sophomores are Tyrone Edwards, Micah Shank, Cayden Brown and Hayden Hose.
Pam Shebest served as a sportswriter at the Kalamazoo Gazette from 1985-2009 after 11 years part-time with the Gazette while teaching French and English at White Pigeon High School. She can be reached at [email protected] with story ideas for Calhoun, Kalamazoo and Van Buren counties.
PHOTOS (Top) Parchment’s Darius Baker, left, controls possession during a game against Allegan. (2) From left: Parchment coach Jesse Roder, Brady Caswell and Caden Ragan. (3) Micah Shank [5] steps into a kick. (4) The Panthers’ Cayden Brown [11] defends. (5) From left: Wyatt Nieboer, Ty Mulka and Cameron Wagner. (Action photos by Shawnia Preston/Oh Shoot Photography, head shots by Pam Shebest.)