Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
Breslin Bound: 2023-24 Girls Report Week 11
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
February 19, 2024
Premium matchups over the last week further amped up the playoff frenzy in Michigan high school girls basketball – and the beginning of the MHSAA Tournament is still two weeks away.
But expect the excitement to just keep building – especially with Sunday’s announcement of this season’s District bracket pairings.
The formula for those brackets has been released, making this a week full of forecasting as teams and fans figure out how their teams fit based on the still-shifting Michigan Power Ratings. Several more big matchups are coming up, so more movement could be on the way – stay tuned.
“Breslin Bound” is powered by MI Student Aid and based on results and schedules posted for each school at MHSAA.com.
Week in Review
The countdown of last week’s five most intriguing results:
1. Rockford 62, East Kentwood 54 The reigning Division 1 champion Rams (19-1) moved back into first place alone in the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red by avenging their 60-54 loss to East Kentwood (15-3) from Jan. 19.
2. Chelsea 51, Tecumseh 35 Two weeks after Tecumseh (14-4) made headlines with its first win over Chelsea (15-4) since 2016, the Bulldogs won the rematch to create a tie atop the Southeastern Conference White with one league game left for both.
3. Portland 51, Lansing Catholic 44 The Raiders (16-1) avenged their lone loss of the season, 62-34 to reigning Division 2 champion Lansing Catholic (13-4) on Jan. 9, to move within one more league win of clinching a share of the Capital Area Activities Conference White.
4. Detroit Renaissance 66, Detroit Cass Tech 27 The Phoenix (18-1) added to their Detroit Public School League Blue title with the PSL Tournament championship, as Cass Tech (12-9) finished runner-up in both.
5. Ishpeming 70, Baraga 43 These are two of the top small-school teams statewide, with Ishpeming (17-1) attempting to earn a share of the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference East title and Baraga (15-4) the reigning Division 4 runner-up and current overall leader in the Copper Mountain Conference.
Watch List
With an eye toward March, here are two teams in each division making sparks:
DIVISION 1
DeWitt (17-2) The Panthers clinched a share of the Capital Area Activities Conference Blue title by downing East Lansing 54-42 and can finish an outright championship run Tuesday against second-place Holt. They’ve won nine straight since a one-point loss to Haslett (13-7) on Jan. 17; the only other defeat was to Byron Center (15-4). All but one victory, an eight-pointer over Williamston (14-4), came by 12 or more points. DeWitt also owns a 58-44 win over Saline (see below).
Saline (15-3) The Hornets will need help to catch Temperance Bedford (15-2) in the Southeastern Conference Red, with one more league loss and two league games to play. But they won Friday’s rematch with the Kicking Mules 38-32 and are tracking to match and potentially surpass last season’s 21-4 overall finish. Six wins total have come over opponents with double-digit victories, with others against Grass Lake (15-4), Riverview (15-3) and Dexter (14-5) and the losses to Bedford, Dexter and DeWitt.
DIVISION 2
Grand Rapids Catholic Central (13-6) Despite a 2-4 start, Grand Rapids Catholic Central has shown itself more than capable of hanging with the contenders in Division 2. Few teams have losses to a more impressive group – Ann Arbor Father Gabriel Richard (20-0), East Kentwood (15-3), Chelsea (15-4), Grand Rapids West Catholic (17-1), Detroit Edison (15-2) and Kenowa Hills (12-6) – and that no doubt is expected to pay off in a District that includes West Catholic. The Cougars lead the O-K Gold and can clinch a share of the title Tuesday against Ottawa Hills before taking on second-place Wayland (13-6) on Friday for a possible outright championship. GRCC won the first game against Wayland 51-50 and also has handed Cedar Springs (15-3) two of its defeats.
Portland (16-1) As noted above, Portland is closing in on a potential CAAC White title share, made even more impressive became Lansing Catholic also is a solid contender to repeat as Division 2 champion next month and four of eight teams in the league have won at least 10 games. Portland definitely is in the Division 2 title conversation as well, and actually would host the District Final matchup with the Cougars in three weeks if the bracket works out that way. The Raiders have just the one loss, plus nine wins against opponents with 11 victories or more, including 46-40 over Grand Rapids Covenant Christian (14-4). A few more interesting challenges are ahead, notably Friday against Division 1 Flint Carman-Ainsworth and next week at Williamston.
DIVISION 3
Lake City (17-2) Last season’s 24-2 run ended with an overtime Regional Final loss to eventual Division 3 champion Hemlock, and this season began with losses to 2023 Division 2 runner-up Frankenmuth (16-2) and Evart (14-3). Lake City hasn’t lost again, taking the rematch with Evart and defeating Manton (16-4) twice to take the lead in the Highland Conference, while also downing Elk Rapids (17-2) and Morley Stanwood (15-2) along the way. In fact, the 44-40 win over Elk Rapids on Dec. 20 was the team’s only single-digit victory until defeating Manton 37-29 on Friday. Wednesday’s trip to Division 2 Hart (13-4) is another matchup to watch.
St. Charles (17-1) The Bulldogs have clinched the outright championship in the Mid-State Activities Conference, making them 4-for-4 on league titles since joining the MSAC, with three of those outright. Last season’s 24-3 run ended in a Division 4 Quarterfinal defeat to eventual champion Glen Lake, and St. Charles is in Division 3 this time – with its lone loss 53-35 in the season opener to reigning Division 3 title winner Hemlock. The 17-game winning streak has included victories over Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart (16-3) twice, including 54-43 on Friday, plus pairs over Breckenridge (13-5) and Fulton (12-7).
DIVISION 4
Kinross Maplewood Baptist (15-3) The Black Bears have won 17 and 16 games the last two seasons, and they may be taking another step if Friday’s 55-29 win over Mackinaw City (18-1) is an indication. Mackinaw City is the Northern Lakes Conference champion, and Maplewood’s losses were twice to Big Bay de Noc (15-2) in finishing second in the Northern Lights League and once to Beaver Island. The Black Bears also have twice doubled up Engadine, which ended Maplewood’s season a year ago. They are leading the race for the top seed in the District at Rudyard and finish up the regular season this weekend at the NLL Tournament.
Lake Leelanau St. Mary (14-2) The Eagles may be coming off a loss Saturday to Division 1 Bedford (15-2), but they have plenty of wins to boost their candidacy as contenders next month. St. Mary won 11 straight before the Bedford loss, including over reigning Division 4 champion Glen Lake (14-5), St. Ignace (12-6) and Gaylord St. Mary (12-6). The other loss was Dec. 12, to Division 3 Benzie Central, and the Eagles will get one more big test next week against Division 2 Sault Ste. Marie (11-4) before jumping into the District at Leland. They currently would get the second seed after Glen Lake, which ended St. Mary’s run a year ago.
Can’t-Miss Contests
Be on the lookout for results of these games coming up:
Tuesday – Holland West Ottawa (14-4) at Rockford (19-1) – West Ottawa’s biggest fans this week are probably at East Kentwood, as Rockford can clinch a share of the O-K Red title with a win but the Falcons will still have a title hope if West Ottawa avenges an earlier loss to the Rams.
Thursday – Ann Arbor Father Gabriel Richard (20-0) at Detroit Renaissance (18-1) – The Operation Friendship matchup is a rematch of last season’s meeting of league champions that ended in a 53-52 overtime win for FGR, Renaissance’s only loss of the 2022-23 regular season.
Thursday – Portage Central (16-0) at Stevensville Lakeshore (15-2) – Central brings a one-game lead into this Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference West finale after winning the first meeting with Lakeshore 53-44 on Jan. 18.
Friday – Belleville (17-1) at Detroit Edison (15-2) – Belleville is undefeated in Michigan and only one of Edison’s losses was in-state as these two both have high aspirations for next month in Divisions 1 and 2, respectively.
Friday – Munising (14-3) at Bark River-Harris (17-1) – These two are undefeated in the Skyline Central Conference Large schools division as Bark River-Harris seeks to claim a fifth-straight league title.
MHSAA.com's weekly “Breslin Bound” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a division within the Department of Lifelong Education, Advancement, and Potential (MiLEAP). MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information. MI Student Aid administers the state’s scholarship and grant programs that help make college Accessible, Affordable and Attainable for you. Connect with MI Student Aid at www.michigan.gov/mistudentaid and find more information on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.
PHOTOS (Top) Detroit Renaissance and Cass Tech face off during Sunday's Detroit Public School League Tournament Final at Wayne State; Renaissance won 66-27. (Middle) Saginaw United brought a large Dow Center crowd a 48-43 win over Flint Carman-Ainsworth. (Top photo by Olivia B. Photography; middle photo by Kolleth Photo.)