Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
Spring Can Wait as Standfest, Elk Rapids Eager to Add to This Winter's Success
By
Tom Spencer
Special for MHSAA.com
February 16, 2024
Winter weather has been rather mild in Northern Michigan this basketball season.
Many are thinking spring, and those who play soccer are already thinking about the upcoming season.
Make no mistake. Elk Rapids’ Kendall Standfest is not one of them.
Standfest has all kinds of unfinished business ahead of her before she starts thinking about what used to be her favorite sport. The high-scoring senior point guard is focused on capturing at least a share of the Lake Michigan Conference championship and a long postseason run in March.
Onlookers in Northern Michigan wouldn’t be surprised if she has March 23 circled on her calendar – the date of the Division 3 Final at the Breslin Center in East Lansing.
Among the most prolific scorers in Elk Rapids history, Standfest has become quite familiar with postseason success in both basketball and soccer – and as a team leader for both.
She shares the basketball leadership role with senior and long-time teammate Morgan Bergquist. Standfest is averaging better than 19 points, 10 rebounds, four assists, three steals and two blocks a game. And Bergquist contributes nearly 15 points per contest.
“I have referred to them as ‘Batman and Robin,’” coach Mike Brown said. “We need both of them at all times because come playoff time, people are going to try to take away their game and make other people step up.”
Elk Rapids is 16-2 overall and 9-1 in league play. Two wins came in overtime. The lone league loss was to Harbor Springs, the team sharing the conference lead. The Elks will host league foes Boyne City tonight and Kalkaska next week. Road games at East Jordan and Kingsley will finish regular season. Then the fun starts again.
Postseason will begin with the District at Johannesburg-Lewiston. Other possible opponents are Charlevoix, East Jordan, Mancelona and Traverse City St. Francis. By playoff time, Elk Rapids will have seen all but the host Cardinals.
The Elks reached the Quarterfinals last year before losing to eventual Division 3 champion Hemlock 52-37.
“Hemlock was a really good team – they could do it all,” Brown said. “Our goal ever since that game has been to get back to the Breslin Center.”
Standfest, too, is excited about the Elks’ potential and looks forward to seeing how far they go this year.
“Our team is coming together and playing really well,” she said. “The ultimate goal is definitely to get to the Breslin, but first Districts obviously and Regionals.”
Standfest also has enjoyed tremendous success on the soccer pitch and as a top-notch cross-country runner. She’s headed to Michigan Tech to play basketball next season, and took this past fall off from high school sports to focus on hoops, now her “definite” favorite sport. “It used to be soccer, but that stopped a while ago and it has been basketball ever since,” Standfest said.
Standfest has been a key player and big scorer for the Elks soccer team, which also has enjoyed great postseason runs reaching Division 3 Semifinals the last two years. They lost to eventual champion Hudsonville Unity Christian in both.
Standfest, who has a chance to reach second on the school’s all-time scoring list, always draws the opposing team’s best defender — if not best overall player. She relishes the opportunity to go toe-to-toe with such challengers.
She already has battled Manton’s Lauren Wilder, Lake City’s MacKenzie Bisballe and Harbor Springs’ Olivia Flynn.
“I enjoy playing against better competition because I think honestly I play better most of the time,” said Standfest, known as Kenny to her team. “It gives me a sense of pride to beat ’em or do something good against them.”
Brown, who took over the Elks program in 2018 after heading up the freshman and JV teams for six years, enjoys watching those battles.
“Kendall played AAU and a lot of those girls did too, so it is fun to watch them go at each other,” he said. “Kendall is always guarding their best player.”
But Brown knows it takes more than his two senior leaders to win consistently.
“It is a team sport,” Brown pointed out. “Everybody has to fill their role.
“We’ve got some up-and-coming sophomores,” he continued. “We are kind of peaking and playing well as a team.”
Should opponents key in on the Elks’ dynamic duo, those likely to step up are sophomores Brooke Fluty, Rylnn Skrocki and Anna Pray, along with junior Hunter Schellenberger.
Brown also notes he’s enjoyed watching the Elks grow into strong contenders and really loves the individual improvement.
“It is really nice when you see these kids get it, and they improve and they’re having fun,” Brown said. “These kids made basketball coaching rewarding.”
Tom Spencer is a longtime MHSAA-registered basketball and soccer official, and former softball and baseball official, and he also has coached in the northern Lower Peninsula area. He previously has written for the Saginaw News, Bay County Sports Page and Midland Daily News. He can be reached at [email protected] with story ideas for Manistee, Wexford, Missaukee, Roscommon, Ogemaw, Iosco, Alcona, Oscoda, Crawford, Kalkaska, Grand Traverse, Benzie, Leelanau, Antrim, Otsego, Montmorency, Alpena, Presque Isle, Cheboygan, Charlevoix and Emmet counties.
PHOTOS (Top) The Elk Rapids girls basketball team celebrates Kendall Standfest’s 1,000th career point; she’s holding the basketball. (Middle) Standfest directs the offense during another game. (Top photo by Abby Porter; middle photo courtesy of the Traverse City Record-Eagle.)