Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
Longtime Friends 'Living Dream' Leading Top-Notch Brandywine Hoops Teams
By
Scott Hassinger
Special for MHSAA.com
March 5, 2024
NILES – Niles Brandywine’s Josh Hood and Nathan Knapp spend countless hours in the gym shaping the lives of young people.
And the two long-time Bobcats basketball head coaches, along with their respective family members, wouldn't have it any other way.
Not only have Hood and Knapp, both Brandywine alumni, built a winning culture within the program, but their passion and enthusiasm have sparked pride and support from the community as well.
Hood is 318-36 over 15 seasons at Brandywine as varsity girls coach following successful stints in the boys programs at Coloma and Cassopolis.
Brandywine, which hosts a Division 3 District this week, has won 10 titles between the Berrien-Cass-St. Joseph League and Lakeland Conference, 10 Districts, seven Regionals and advanced to the MHSAA Semifinals twice (2010, 2016) under Hood.
The Bobcats, 20-1, suffered its lone loss in early February to Vicksburg, a Division 2 school, 46-38. They were No. 1 in The Associated Press state rankings for a few weeks before finishing in the No. 2 spot behind Ypsilanti Arbor Prep.
Brandywine has played a difficult schedule and owns wins over 2023 Division 3 runners-up Blissfield (45-43) at the Michigan Hardwood Classic in Romulus over holiday break and last year quarterfinalist Hart (62-52) at Brandywine on Jan. 2. Brandywine’s regular-season schedule included five conference champions and 12 Division 1 or Division 2 opponents.
"We built our schedule this year to be the toughest in the state and get us well prepared for what could be a magical run," Hood said.
Just like any other coach, Hood says a successful program just doesn't happen overnight.
All 14 of Brandywine's varsity girls players began by participating in the Kiddie 'Cats Youth Basketball Program.
"This year we had 102 girls in K-6th grade in our youth program. Our current varsity girls are all primarily multi-sport athletes, and their success has been a body of work since they were in second grade. Our commitment in the summer and offseason since we lost to No. 1 Buchanan last year in Districts is unlike anything I've ever seen since I've been here," Hood said.
This year before the girls basketball season began, each member of the team was required to put up 27,000 shots.
"This is a talented group, but make no mistake it's because these girls have put in the hard work to get themselves to this point. We've ran into a buzzsaw the last few years. Fortunately, we get to host Districts and this team wants to get their name on a banner. We know it's not going to be easy though," Hood said.
Brandywine is averaging 58.2 points per game while allowing just 29.6 at the defensive end.
"Our top 10 girls on this team have been on varsity since they were freshmen. Practices are a real brawl and very competitive,” Hood said. “We have former players who are successful women on our staff that our kids can look up to. Not many coaching staffs can say that.”
Mackenzie Cass, Hood's younger sister, coached the Brandywine junior varsity to a record of 18-0 this season. Hood's varsity staff also consists of former Brandywine playing standouts Tammy Lee, Kalie Wieger and Nicole Price, along with Frelen Gowen, Mike Troup and Dave Roeder.
Senior point guard Ellie Knapp, Nathan's daughter, leads the Bobcats at 14.2 points, 4.7 assists and 4.1 steals per game. She has verbally committed to play basketball at Holy Cross College, an NAIA school, in South Bend, Ind.
"Freshmen year was difficult because Brandywine had lost its entire starting lineup. Right away I had to be a leader and learn the offense and defense. That wasn't easy," Ellie Knapp said. "As a sophomore we were still young, but we matured a lot as juniors. Buchanan ended our season in Districts the last couple years. This year we're more experienced and everyone has bought in and worked hard for the success we've had. The last three years were tough, but I feel like you must lose first before you can learn how to win. It takes a lot of heart too."
Senior Kadence Brumitt, a Valparaiso University volleyball commit, averages 8.7 points and eight rebounds at the post position.
"I wasn't really a basketball player when I came in as a freshman. I stuck with it and I progressed,” said Brumitt, who plans to study nursing. “We struggled early on. This group of girls have played together for a real long time so there are no issues with chemistry."
While only two seniors in Ellie Knapp and Brummit, Hood says their contributions to the program the last four years have been immeasurable.
"Ellie and Kadence are both fierce competitors who come from great families and do things the right way. We've been very blessed to have such great role models in our program for future players," Hood said.
Another key player for Brandywine is junior Miley Young, who averages 8.8 points and 3.1 assists per game.
"It's great to have people like Miley who get even better going up against players like Ellie and Kadence every day in practice," Hood said.
Hood, who is Brandywine's Middle/High School assistant principal, didn't work in the same building his first six years in the school district.
"It's nice to be able to be here in the building now everyday and building those relationships with the students. Now I can also read the pulses of my players better. If one of them is having a bad day, I can pull them in and find out what's going on," Hood said. "Just being here now and being able to build the community support, it's like no other place. We call our gym the 'Bobcat Den.' It's a special place and is packed every Tuesday and Friday night. That's a tribute to the community. There's no city of Brandywine; the epicenter is Brandywine High School. This community does a great job of supporting our kids, and we're very grateful for that. It's a family here, and we support all the sports and the kids see that."
Hood and his Bobcats make a point to give back to the community each season.
"One of the things we talk about in our program is the opportunity to give back. We talk to the girls about servant leadership. Our kids have embraced that and like to thank the community for supporting us. We ring a bell at Christmas time for the Salvation Army and held a food drive at a local church this year," Hood said.
Brandywine held its annual Pink Game and Cancer Awareness Night at its final regular-season game against St. Joseph. The event raised money donated to the Brian Parker Cancer Foundation benefiting the local community.
Hood works well with his counterpart Knapp, Brandywine's boys' coach.
"How many coaches in the state can say that one of your peers was one of your best friends growing up and that you played high school basketball with them. There's nothing else, outside of our families, that we take more pride in than Brandywine," Hood said. "It's unbelievable. We can share the gym, build our schedules and between our two programs we have over 200 kids in our youth programs. I've learned so much from Nate. He's a phenomenal person. We're living out the dream."
Brandywine's boys team (21-3) is looking to return to the Breslin Center later this month after winning Friday's District final against White Pigeon. The Bobcats harbor hopes of duplicating last year's historic run.
Brandywine faces Union City in a Regional opener tonight in Watervliet. The winner takes on either No. 8 Schoolcraft or Watervliet at 7 p.m. Thursday in the Regional Final.
Brandywine lost to Traverse City St. Francis 46-36 last year in its first Semifinal appearance.
Knapp, the Bobcats boys head mentor for 19 seasons, graduated four off a 25-2 team, but returned eight including seniors Byron Linley and Jaremiah Palmer, along with sophomore Nylen Goins.
Linley leads the Bobcats in scoring at 13.7 points per game, followed by Palmer (13.1) and Goins (11.5).
"Byron is our shooter. He does a lot of the intangibles like scoring and plays great defense. He's always going 100 percent and is the last one to leave the gym," Knapp said. "Nylen is very athletic and brings great energy to the floor. He's quick and can get up and down the court. When he does, we're amazing. He's still raw defensively, but he's getting there and can really shoot."
Senior Jamier Palmer, Jaremiah's twin brother, along with classmates Robert Whiting and Ja'Torian Smith play key roles as well, along with senior Brock Dye.
"Jaremiah and Jamier are our spark. They do anything we ask of them. They are two of the most unselfish and athletic players I've ever coached. They can score and are lock-down defenders," Knapp said.
Brandywine’s boys, co-champs in the Lakeland Conference with perennial state power Benton Harbor, beefed up their nonleague schedule as well.
The Bobcats' losses this season came to Riverview Gabriel Richard (57-55) in the Motor City Roundball Classic in Ferndale on Dec. 27, Benton Harbor (72-59) and Portage Central (71-67).
Brandywine avenged the earlier-season loss to Division 2 No. 3-ranked Benton Harbor with a 63-57 victory at the “Bobcat Den.” The Bobcats were ranked No. 3 in the final Division 3 AP poll, but were rated No. 1 at one point this season as well.
"Last year we won our first Regional. The glass slipper just really fit. This season we've had a target on our back from day one,” Knapp said. “We put a brutal schedule together for these guys. Our mindset was to play the better competition. We felt like St. Francis was a little long, and they kept getting a piece of the ball. This season we wanted to face teams like that before the tournament begins so we're ready for it. These kids have rose to the occasion every night and are warriors.”
Linley, a guard, feels the Semifinal loss to St. Francis served as big motivation this season.
"Since losing in last year's Semifinals I think that has just made us want to get back there (Breslin) even more. We just have to keep pushing one another in practice," Linley said. "Our coaches do a nice job daily of letting us know how good we can be and what we need to work on."
Jaremiah Palmer, a starting guard, feels his biggest assets on the court are his athleticism and quickness.
"I'm able to finish and get to my spots quick before opponents can stop me,” Jaremiah Palmer said. “Most of us have been playing together since middle school or longer. We have to translate what we learn in practice over to the game and play like it's our last one. Any team can beat you this time of year. No one on this team is selfish. We all work together."
Knapp (1991-1994) and Hood played their high school basketball at Brandywine for Al Westendorp.
"My senior year in high school we got upset in Districts by Marcellus. I tell our kids you have to be ready to play anyone every night," said Knapp, who runs Brandywine's CTE Program.
Knapp served as Hood's JV coach at Coloma before returning to Brandywine to become the varsity boys coach.
"We have great and amazing people around us here at Brandywine. It's a family atmosphere. My sons Austin and Carson are two of my assistant coaches, along with Brandon Glover, Casey Udell, Zach Livovich and Gabe Gouin. I'm older so when the kids don't get a point I'm trying to get across, the younger coaches help them understand what I'm trying to say," Nathan Knapp said.
The second game against Benton Harbor was a wake-up call and will serve as a big inspiration.
"We were down by 20 in the third quarter," Knapp said, "and the kids just stuck together, believed in themselves, played good defense and came back to win."
Scott Hassinger is a contributing sportswriter for Leader Publications and previously served as the sports editor for the Three Rivers Commercial-News from 1994-2022. He can be reached at [email protected] with story ideas for Berrien, Cass, St. Joseph and Branch counties.
PHOTOS (Top) Kadence Brumitt (32) scores inside for Niles Brandywine against St. Joseph. (2) Niles Brandywine varsity girls' basketball team members and coaches pose for a photo during the Bobcats’ annual Pink Game on Cancer Awareness Night. (3) Niles Brandywine senior Byron Linley (11) drives between Buchanan defenders during last week's District game at White Pigeon. (4) The Brandywine boys basketball team poses with the trophy after defeating White Pigeon. (Linley photo by Kelly Sweeney/Leader Publications; all other photos by Scott Hassinger.)