Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
Breslin Bound: 2023-24 Girls District Preview
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
March 4, 2024
The MHSAA will conclude this 2023-24 winter season with girls basketball, and every unforgettable run we’ll talk about during that third weekend in March begins this week as more than 700 teams across Michigan chart their course for East Lansing.
District play will tip off tonight, with 128 brackets emptying into next week’s Regionals and then, eventually, the Semifinals at Breslin Center on March 21.
We always switch up our “Breslin Bound” format just a bit once the MHSAA Tournament starts, as last week’s most intriguing results below are followed this time by glances at three District brackets of note in each division. Host sites are bolded, and teams playing in those brackets are listed in order of how they stacked up by Michigan Power Rating (MPR) when seeding was announced Feb. 25, with the top seeds listed first.
Everything you could want to know this week about tickets, brackets and more can be found on the Girls Basketball page. To watch any of several games online, visit the NFHS Network.
“Breslin Bound” is powered by MI Student Aid and based on results and schedules posted for each school at MHSAA.com.
Week in Review
The countdown of last week’s five most intriguing results:
1. Grand Blanc 45, Midland Dow 37 – In a winner-take-all for the Saginaw Valley League title, Grand Blanc (17-4) clinched it for the first time by handing the Chargers (19-3) their only conference loss.
2. Frankenmuth 43, Lansing Catholic 36 – In one of the most impressive weeks for any team statewide all season, Frankenmuth (20-2) won this rematch of last year’s Division 2 championship game, before defeating Detroit Edison 63-58 two days later.
3. Kent City 43, Morley Stanwood 33 – Morley Stanwood (17-4) had finished a game ahead of Kent City (and two others) in the Central State Activities Association during the league season, but Kent City (18-4) emerged with this tournament championship win.
4. Colon 51, Mendon 47 – The Magi (20-2) finished an outright championship in the Southern Central Athletic Association West by edging the runner-up Hornets (19-3).
5. Belleville 54, Howell 46 – The Tigers (19-2) added to their perfect run through the Kensington Lakes Activities Association East with this win over West champion Howell (15-7) for the overall league title.
Districts at a Glance
These could be among our most competitive brackets. Host sites are in bold:
DIVISION 1
Rockford
No. 1 Rockford (21-1), No. 2 Cedar Springs (17-3), Muskegon (16-4), Muskegon Mona Shores (12-9), Muskegon Reeths-Puffer (9-11), Greenville (6-14).
Reigning Division 1 champion Rockford has followed up last year’s 28-1 season with similar flawlessness, its only loss to East Kentwood on Jan. 19 – and the Rams avenged it a month later on the way to winning the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red outright. O-K Green champ Muskegon certainly would provide a challenge if they were to meet again Wednesday – Rockford won their Dec. 15 game 70-39, but that was nearly three months ago. Cedar Springs on the other side of the bracket was the runner-up in the O-K Gold, with its only two losses over the last 15 games to league champion Grand Rapids Catholic Central. Mona Shores also is on Cedar Springs’ side of the bracket and can’t be overlooked.
Salem
No. 1 South Lyon East (17-5), No. 2 Salem (14-7), Canton (17-5), Plymouth (14-8), South Lyon (18-3), Northville (5-17).
This might be one of the most competitive Districts in any division, with host Salem coming off a run to the Division 1 Semifinals a year ago. The Rocks split with both Canton and Plymouth this season, with Canton finishing best of the three in the Kensington Lakes Activities Association West, tying for second place. Two losses over their final three games dissolved Canton’s league title changes, but a Feb. 9 win over Salem sticks out among the team’s February work. Those two and Plymouth are on one side of the bracket, with Lakes Valley Conference co-champion South Lyon East and third-place South Lyon joined by Northville on the other side. East won both meetings with its rival, by 12 and then six points.
Saline
No. 1 Belleville (19-2), No. 2 Saline (18-4), Wayne Memorial (14-6), Ypsilanti Lincoln (11-11), Ypsilanti Community (12-9).
Every team in this District has a .500 record or better, and KLAA East champ Belleville is No. 4 overall in Division 1 MPR after the regular season with its losses to Mason (Ohio) and Division 2 contender Detroit Edison. The Tigers have been eliminated by Saline the last five seasons and would see the Hornets in the championship game Friday. But Saline must advance past Wayne, which owns a streak of six straight District titles and no doubt would look forward to a third matchup with Belleville after losing the first two by 11 and 28 points, respectively. Saline has won 11 of its last 12 games, its only defeat during that time from KLAA West champ Howell.
DIVISION 2
Ada Forest Hills Eastern
No. 1 Grand Rapids West Catholic (21-1), No. 2 Grand Rapids Catholic Central (16-6), Ada Forest Hills Eastern (1-21), Grand Rapids Christian (2-19), Grand Rapids West Michigan Aviation Academy (5-16).
A West Catholic/Catholic Central rematch Friday is one of the most anticipated rematches of the week, as West Catholic won their regular-season meeting 60-54 on Dec. 29 at Cornerstone University. West Catholic’s only loss of the season game two days earlier, to Rockford, and the Falcons lost only once during the 2022-23 season as well – to eventual Division 2 champion Lansing Catholic in a Semifinal at Breslin Center. West Catholic also defeated GRCC 67-49 in last year’s District Final, but the Cougars should be riding high coming off a 45-41 win over Williamston (17-5) last week, the latest of a 14-2 run.
Fowlerville
No. 1 Chelsea (18-4), No. 2 Williamston (17-5), Haslett (15-7), Pinckney (10-11), Fowlerville (8-14).
Chelsea’s eight-game winning streak included avenging two of its defeats, against Dexter and Tecumseh, on the way to sharing the Southeastern Conference White championship with the latter. The Bulldogs have won three straight District championships, but also have the tougher side of the bracket with Haslett the Wednesday opponent if the Vikings get past Pinckney tonight. Haslett played a loaded schedule again this winter, which included a pair of league losses to Williamston – and three straight defeats in December by five points or fewer. The Hornets similarly loaded up the slate with contenders, and their only loss since falling to Chelsea 38-35 on Jan. 3 was to Grand Rapids Catholic Central.
Portland
No. 1 Lansing Catholic (17-5), No. 2 Portland (19-2), Lake Odessa Lakewood (11-11), Hastings (5-17), Charlotte (3-17).
This is also expected to end in another high-powered matchup, with the Capital Area Activities Conference White co-champs anchoring both sides of the bracket. The reigning Division 2 champion Cougars won the first matchup with Portland, 62-34 on Jan. 9, but the Raiders rebounded to win the rematch 51-44 on Feb. 13. That one was at Portland, and this one would be too – but Lansing Catholic is plenty battle-tested with its other defeats this season to Rockford, Frankenmuth (20-2), Ann Arbor Father Gabriel Richard (22-0) and Detroit Renaissance (19-3). The Raiders lost their regular-season finale to Williamston, 45-39, but surely will be ready to bounce back for this week’s opportunity.
DIVISION 3
Gladstone (assigned host) or Harbor Springs, Manistique or Menominee (Non-traditional)
No. 1 Harbor Springs (20-2), No. 2 Bark River-Harris (20-2), Gladstone (14-8), Menominee (12-10), Manistique (7-13).
Because of the distance between these possible opponents, this is one of the non-traditional Districts in the tournament this season. Harbor Springs is the anticipated championship game host as it enters riding a 16-game winning streak that included avenging one of its two losses, to Elk Rapids, to share the Lake Michigan Conference title with the Elks. On the other side, Bark-River Harris is coming off a 54-51 loss to Ishpeming (21-1) last week, but that was the Broncos’ first defeat since Dec. 11 to Menominee. Bark River-Harris was stopped in its first District game a year ago by Gladstone, and they are set to meet Wednesday with Gladstone coming off a Great Northern Conference championship. Menominee was third in the GNC and has won eight of its last nine games – and Harbor Springs must be cautious if the Maroons get past Manistique tonight.
Ithaca
No. 1 Ovid-Elsie (19-2), No. 2 St. Charles (20-2), New Lothrop (15-7), Ithaca (7-15), Chesaning (7-14).
Ovid-Elsie, St. Charles and New Lothrop all finished among the top 20 statewide in Division 3 MPR, and New Lothrop even jumped ahead of St. Charles during the week after seeds were announced. Ovid-Elsie was first and New Lothrop second in the Mid-Michigan Activities Conference – the Marauders winning their matchups 53-46 and 52-37 – and they would meet again Wednesday if New Lothrop gets past the host Yellowjackets tonight. St. Charles won a Mid-State Activities Conference that included five teams with 12 or more victories, and the Bulldogs’ only losses were to Hemlock in a regular-season opener and Division 2 Midland Bullock Creek. St. Charles has 11 and 18-point wins over Division 4 contender Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart (19-3).
Pinconning
No. 1 Hemlock (17-5), No. 2 Sanford Meridian (20-1), Saginaw Valley Lutheran (12-10), Beaverton (11-11), Saginaw Arts & Sciences Academy (8-12), Pinconning (3-18).
The reigning Division 3 champion Huskies have readied themselves for another run at the title. They are coming off two losses last week, but those were to Division 1 Saginaw Heritage (12-10) and Division 2 Freeland (19-3), and Hemlock’s other defeats were to Division 1 Midland Dow (19-3) and Division 2 Frankenmuth (20-2) and Goodrich (22-0). On the other side of the bracket, Meridian certainly has circled this week after losing to Hemlock 54-45 in last year’s District to finish 20-2. The Mustangs defeated Heritage by a bucket Feb. 17, and similar to Hemlock lost to Freeland this season by only six points. Beaverton and Valley Lutheran are potential challengers that must win tonight to meet the top seeds.
DIVISION 4
Auburn Hills Oakland Christian
No. 1 Clarkston Everest Collegiate (14-4), No. 2 Dryden (15-7), Genesee Christian (13-9), Waterford Our Lady of the Lakes (10-6), Auburn Hills Oakland Christian (10-11).
Everest enters this week off a pair of notable wins, defeating Bloomfield Hills Roeper (18-2) last week after winning the Catholic High School League’s St. Anne Tournament against Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook Kingswood (15-4) – which had defeated the Mountaineers twice in league play. Everest this week will start with either Our Lady or Genesee Christian – Everest defeated Genesee Christian 43-42 on Jan. 4. The Soldiers actually moved up to second in this District in MPR during the week after seeds were announced, with all of their losses to opponents that have won at least 13 games. Dryden lines up similarly after tying for second in the North Central Thumb League Stars – all of its losses came to teams that have won at least 12 games. the Cardinals have made a big jump from winning four games only two seasons ago.
Baraga (assigned host) or Felch North Dickinson, L’Anse or Ishpeming (Non-traditional)
No. 1 Ishpeming (21-1), No. 2 Baraga (18-4), L’Anse (10-12), Crystal Falls Forest Park (8-14), Felch North Dickinson (8-14).
This is another District with some distance between opponents – about half the Upper Peninsula – but that will be reduced to 59 miles Friday if seeds play out and Ishpeming travels to Baraga. The Hematites finished 5-10 only three seasons ago but have been building toward this with 12 and 16 wins the last two seasons and their only loss this winter to Division 2 Negaunee (21-1) – after Ishpeming had defeated the Miners a month earlier. Ishpeming also has a 70-43 win Feb. 13 over Baraga, the reigning Division 4 runner-up. But that’s the only blemish on the Vikings’ schedule over their last 13 games, a run that’s seen them avenge an earlier loss in handing Lake Linden-Hubbell (21-1) its only defeat.
Morenci
No. 1 Morenci (17-3), No. 2 Pittsford (17-5), Waldron (15-7), Jackson Christian (9-13), North Adams-Jerome (3-16).
The host Bulldogs are Tri-County Conference champions, and like Ishpeming (above) have been building up to this winning three games only three seasons ago. Morenci this winter swept Adrian Lenawee Christian and Petersburg Summerfield, the teams that eliminated the Bulldogs in the District the last two years. They may have to contend Wednesday with Waldron, which finished third in the Southern Central Athletic Association East won by Pittsford. Pittsford defeated the Spartans 34-26 on Thursday to finish that league title run, and in doing so avenged a defeat to Waldron from Feb. 13. The Wildcats will try to capitalize on that momentum as they seek their first District title since the Class D championship run of 2016.
MHSAA.com's weekly “Breslin Bound” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a division within the Department of Lifelong Education, Advancement, and Potential (MiLEAP). MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information. MI Student Aid administers the state’s scholarship and grant programs that help make college Accessible, Affordable and Attainable for you. Connect with MI Student Aid at www.michigan.gov/mistudentaid and find more information on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.
PHOTOS (Top) Bark River-Harris's Marissa Ives (1) drives to the basket while being defended by Ishpeming's Mya Hemmer (14) and Jenna Maki (1) during the Hematites 54-51 win last week. (Middle) Detroit Cass Tech's Ari Parker steps up to launch a 3-pointer during her team's Detroit Public School League final against Renaissance on Feb. 18. (Top photo by Cara Kamps; middle photo by Olivia B. Photography.)