Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
Ludwig's Dedication to High School Pitch Energizes Clarkston's Title Pursuit
By
Keith Dunlap
Special for MHSAA.com
September 15, 2022
CLARKSTON – It would be a bit much to say they have been full-scale recruiting pitches for Clarkston senior Richie Ludwig, but let’s just say there have been strong nudges each time the high school soccer season has rolled around.
Before each season, Ludwig has gotten some minor overtures from coaches at various academies trying to lure him to their organizations and away from high school soccer.
And these aren’t some low-key academies, as several are affiliated with Major League Soccer organizations.
“I usually get a text or two and calls from a couple of different coaches,” he said.
The coaches essentially are saying, “Hey, if you happen to change your mind about that high school thing, you know where to reach us.”
Each time, Ludwig has essentially responded saying, “Thanks, but no thanks.”
You certainly can’t blame the academies for trying.
A wondrously skilled and fast player, Ludwig should be on the short list of Mr. Soccer Award candidates this year, if not the favorite.
Entering Tuesday he had 13 goals and nine assists already this season, and he’ll play next for Michigan State.
But the fact he’s in the midst of his fourth year of high school soccer is news in itself, given his talents.
Besides just loving high school soccer and playing with his friends, there are two other reasons why Ludwig has shunned prominent academies.
One, he plays on a club team, Nationals Soccer Union based out of Shelby Township — where one of the coaches is his dad, Rich — that has traveled the country to tournaments and events.
“Really, I’ve gotten all the scouting and recruitment needed at my club nationals,” Ludwig said.
Second, Clarkston plays in what annually is one of the state’s best leagues, the Oakland Activities Association Red, where nightly there are games against other prominent club standouts, future college players and state-ranked teams.
It’s not like he’s missing out on developmental opportunities in high school.
“What I get out of high school is a good social environment while also getting to compete with a couple of my buddies,” Ludwig said. “Even though it may not be at a level as high as a club team is playing at, I can still push myself to be able to play at the standards I want to play at the next level.”
Ludwig primarily plays as an attacking midfielder or a center forward, and while he is a natural goal scorer, Clarkston head coach Ian Jones said he’s a creator wherever he is on the field.
Even if he is assigned to be in the middle of the field, Ludwig will go wide to create numerous scoring opportunities.
“He almost creates more opportunities by not being involved,” Jones said. “He finds spaces. He creates space for other people, so his understanding of how to create space not just for himself, but other people, is the biggest improvement I’ve seen. He just has a knack of seeing things before they evolve.”
Ludwig said he has worn a Spartans jersey “ever since I came out of the womb.”
“I’ve always wanted to go there,” he added.
Before that though, he hopes to leave high school by making history for Clarkston.
This year marks 15 years since the best team in Clarkston history made a run to its only MHSAA Finals in 2007, where the Wolves lost in the Division 1 championship match to East Kentwood.
Ludwig said he and other players have turned into historians a bit this year, studying up on that team and hoping to go one step farther so they can lay claim to being the best in school history.
“Our coaches have talked to us about some of those things they did,” Ludwig said. “The little things off of the field even. They have just told us the little things we need to pick up on to make that run.”
If a run at a Finals title doesn’t happen, Ludwig won’t have any regrets about sticking with high school for all four years given the memories he’s made and what he’s accomplished.
But if the Wolves do contend, it’ll make turning down those small overtures from academies worth celebrating more than all the goals he has scored combined.
“He’s a pretty loyal boy,” Jones said. "I think he has the ambition to do something in high school that hasn’t been done before.”
Keith Dunlap has served in Detroit-area sports media for more than two decades, including as a sportswriter at the Oakland Press from 2001-16 primarily covering high school sports but also college and professional teams. His bylines also have appeared in USA Today, the Washington Post, the Detroit Free Press, the Houston Chronicle and the Boston Globe. He served as the administrator for the Oakland Activities Association’s website from 2017-2020. Contact him at [email protected] with story ideas for Oakland, Macomb and Wayne counties.
PHOTOS Clarkston’s Richie Ludwig (10), an all-state Dream Team selection last season, is a likely contender for the Mr. Soccer Award this fall. (Photos courtesy of Richie Ludwig.)