Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
Several Northern Michigan Hopefuls Setting Up for Potential Postseason Success
By
Tom Spencer
Special for MHSAA.com
September 9, 2022
Not a whole lot is changing — yet — in the Big North, Northwest and Lake Michigan soccer conferences this year.
Traverse City Christian, an independent, is taking on schools from all three and wants a different District result to get back to Regionals this fall. And, perhaps surprisingly, Kalkaska is looking to change things too.
Traverse City West, Elk Rapids and Christian loaded up their early season with strong nonconference competition. Nothing new. And Leland and Buckley, fast becoming arguably the biggest rivals in northern Michigan, did the best they could to schedule nonconference competition aimed at leading to yet another deep postseason run.
Of course West and Elk Rapids have their eyes on the postseason — again — as well.
West, coming off its annual Labor Day weekend tournament hosting Grand Haven, Midland Dow and Mason, is off to a 6-1 start, posting shutouts in its first four contests. Christian is 5-1-1.
Elk Rapids is off to a 2-5-1 start. That’s not a misprint.
And, by the way, Kalkaska is undefeated in regulation in its first six games.
That’s not an error either. Third-year coach David Wagner has his Blazers playing well and has seen some stellar goaltending by junior Kayden Dueweke-Gonzales. A shootout loss is the only blemish.
Wagner is hoping his team can pick up more wins than has been the case for some time for the Blazers in the Lake Michigan Conference.
“I think we will be much more competitive than we were last year,” Wagner said of the Blazers, who are 5-1 overall and 2-0 in Lake Michigan play.
Nate Plum, now is his 15th year at the helm of Elk Rapids, is not overly concerned about his team’s win-loss record at this moment. He’s more concerned with the Elks learning from their experiences and hopes he will see stronger competition in the Lake Michigan Conference this year from teams like Kalkaska.
Despite what many would call a slow start, the Elks are still rated among the state’s top Division 3 soccer teams and are drawing the attention of the soccer community across the state.
Elk Rapids has made many postseason runs under Plum, who came into this fall with a 241-102-33 record as the Elks coach. Elk Rapids reached the Division 3 Semifinals last season before losing a shootout to the eventual champion, Grand Rapids South Christian. The Elks also reached the Semifinals in 2020, falling to South Christian. Elk Rapids has won four straight District titles, the last two in part because of one-goal and shootout wins over TC Christian.
The Elks prioritize playing teams like they may see at the end of the season, allowing the competition and conditions to force improvements. Teams are getting stronger in the Lake Michigan Conference, Plum is excited to note, but Elk Rapids hasn’t lost a league game in five years.
So the Elks have looked for opportunities to play on turf and tough environments like TC West and East Grand Rapids.
“The boys would rather be playing in late October than racking up wins now,” Plum said. “I know I’ve got to put them in situations where they have to get better — the only way the boys can get better sometimes is play games we’re not going to have the ball the entire time and they’re going to challenge us and put us in uncomfortable spots.
“When the games really matter at the end of the year and we find ourself in tough situations, we can say, ‘We’ve been in something like this, and we’ve seen it before,’” he continued. “Maybe putting us in those situations are more important to me than wins.”
TC Christian, a long-time regular and postseason opponent of the Elks, has its eyes set on knocking off the Elks in the District this time.
The Sabres are getting closer, but they haven’t made a Regional appearance since 2010. They will host the Elks on Sept. 20.
Roy Jay Montney, who owns a 37-10-3 record with the Sabres, said since they are independent, his program schedules every game with the postseason in mind.
“We are not in a league, so we are thinking of the postseason,” Montney said. “We’re preparing for the postseason each game.”
The coaches share mutual respect.
“Elk Rapids is great program,” Montney said. “They’ve put together a consistent team and program for years.
“They will be strong and they will come out to play, and hopefully we’ll be ready for it.”
Christian is not ready to focus on the Elks yet. They will play Holland, Midland and Traverse City Central before that Sept. 20 meeting on the pitch.
“They’re (Sabres) tough competition, no question about that,” said Plum. “A lot of times I feel the one during the season is a soccer game and the next one is a bunch of emotion.
“Nobody wants to lose come October, and everyone is playing like it’s their last game,” Plum continued. “They have to make it really tough to win the District and you’ve got to give them credit for that.”
The Elks have been led by junior Alex Smith, who has four goals and two assists so far. The Sabres have been led by senior Henry Reineck’s six goals and one assist.
Buckley, coming off its first Northwest Conference championship won last fall, is hoping to repeat but again must get past perennial league champ Leland (2-2-1), which has made many deep postseason runs including to the Division 4 championship in 2018.
Leland reached the Regionals in 2019 and 2020 before suffering a 1-0 District championship loss to Buckley in 2021. Rob Sirrine, now in his second year as the head coach, was an assistant coach for the Comets during those runs.
“We’ve got a really young team this year and are excited to see which underclassmen step up and contribute,” said Sirrine. “Our goal is to make it to Regional Finals at a minimum.
“We’ve had a few solid games and a few lackluster games so far, but it’s early,” he continued. “We’ll be working out the kinks over the next several weeks to be ready for playoffs this year.”
The playoffs will come after home and away games with Buckley in league play. The Bears and Comets are competing in different Division 4 Districts this year. Instead of loading up the nonleague schedule, capturing a league crown is critical to the Bears’ postseason preparation, veteran coach John Vermilya pointed out.
“We haven’t gone to the lengths of like Elk Rapids, TC Christian and Leland,” he said. “They’re always playing the biggest dog they can get.
“We’re trying to get a flavor of what is outside of our conference,” he continued. “We are just trying to win games and get one of the two seeds in District play.”
The Bears are going into a game today with Manistee, a Division 3 team, at 4-3-1. They’ve recently benefited from two Spanish and one Italian exchange student entering the district.
Buckley lost to eventual Division 4 champion Wyoming Potter’s House Christian in a Regional Semifinal last year.
Meanwhile, Traverse City West (6-1) is eying another postseason run and taking on Holland on Saturday. The Titans picked up a win in their conference opener Thursday over Petoskey.
Since taking over the West helm in 2015, Matt Griesinger has guided the Titans to a 123-30-15 record, District championships the last three seasons and Division 1 Finals appearances in 2019 and 2020.
The Titans have won the Big North Conference the last 12 years. Griesinger credits senior goalie Trae Collins for much of the early success this fall. Collins has a goals-against average of 0.81 through seven games.
Petoskey dropped to 6-5 overall with the West loss.
Tom Spencer is a longtime MHSAA-registered basketball and soccer official, and former softball and baseball official, and he also has coached in the northern Lower Peninsula area. He previously has written for the Saginaw News, Bay County Sports Page and Midland Daily News. He can be reached at [email protected] with story ideas for Manistee, Wexford, Missaukee, Roscommon, Ogemaw, Iosco, Alcona, Oscoda, Crawford, Kalkaska, Grand Traverse, Benzie, Leelanau, Antrim, Otsego, Montmorency, Alpena, Presque Isle, Cheboygan, Charlevoix and Emmet counties.
PHOTOS (Top) Elk Rapids' Caden Moore (9) gets his head on the ball during an Aug. 23 game against Petoskey. (2) Keeper Kayden Dueweke-Gonzales leads Kalkaska in its warm up before Thursday’s win over Boyne City. (3) Henry Reineck kicks the ball around during a Traverse City Christian practice. (4) Traverse City West keeper Trae Collins takes a moment during his school’s junior varsity game. (Top photo by Kate Parrish, Kalkaska photo courtesy of the Blazers’ athletic department, and Traverse City Christian and West photos by Tom Spencer.)