Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
Seniors Lead Midland Calvary Baptist's Rise from MHSAA Debut to District Championship
By
Paul Costanzo
Special for MHSAA.com
October 26, 2022
James Day wasn’t surprised by how quickly his Midland Calvary Baptist boys soccer team was competing for postseason titles.
But when the Kings won their first District title recently, in just their fourth MHSAA postseason, he did feel they had proved something to those outside the program.
“I think to a certain level, yes, (we had to prove) that we can actually win the title, that District title,” the Calvary Baptist coach said. “I think, too, it was so exciting because there are several players that have played in virtually all of (the program’s postseason) games.”
Led by its five seniors, Calvary Baptist defeated Saginaw Valley Lutheran 2-1 on Oct. 21 to win that Division 4 District title. It came after the team had advanced to the District Final in each of its previous three tries.
After seeing plenty of success in the Michigan Association of Christian Schools, the Kings made the leap to the MHSAA and participated in their first postseason in 2019. That year, they lost to Roscommon 1-0 in the District Final. They fell to Bad Axe in the District Final each of the next two seasons.
“The first three years, we’d been super close,” senior midfielder Charley Tomko said. “The last two years we lost to Bad Axe in the District championship, and going into this year, my goal was to win a District championship. We didn’t beat Bad Axe in the championship game, but we beat a really solid team to win it. Going into the season, this was my goal – this was our team’s goal – and we figured it out and were able to execute.”
Tomko and classmates John Adams, Isaac Wallace, Dyllon Ouderkirk and Lucian Snyder make up the core of the team. Most of them have been playing soccer together since middle school, and have known each other since kindergarten.
“It really helps,” said Adams, a senior center back. “I’ve known our keeper (Snyder) since we were 7 years old. It helps because we’ve played with each other for a lot of years. We’re friends on and off the field, and obviously it really helps when we’re on the field because we communicate and work together.”
The five seniors are also spread throughout the four levels of the Kings’ formation, which helps create a balance that Day said is the strength of his team.
Snyder plays in goal, with Adams at center back and Wallace at right back on defense. Tomko is an attacking midfielder, and Ouderkirk plays forward, where he’s netted more than 20 goals this season.
“It really does help to have an experienced player throughout all parts of the field,” Adams said. “We all understand how all of us play.”
The bond between those seniors – and the entire team – has been formed and strengthened by much more than their play.
During their sophomore season, their friend and teammate Stephen Kipfmiller died after a battle with leukemia. While his memory remains a constant in their minds, the Kings also do their best to continue to honor him outwardly. His number 19 was retired by the program, and their captains armbands are orange, representing leukemia awareness.
“That group has gone through a lot of adversity not just on the field, but off of it,” Day said. “Seeing how, even through struggle and hardship, there’s things we can do on and off the field that bring joy. Winning a title is temporary, but at the end of the day, it was fulfilling, too. There’s this bond we’ve formed around the sport, and it’s been great to be able to honor our friend Stephen and his life.”
Kipfmiller’s brother, Caleb, is a coach in the program, and his parents are regulars at the team’s games.
“When Stephen passed, we were sophomores, and since that year, the brotherhood between the seniors and all of our teams, and even our school, has grown an immense amount,” Tomko said. “His parents are still involved with our teams, they come to every home game. It’s really cool to play for God’s glory, and also to have that memory of Stephen. He always worked as hard as he could. Just the way he led the team, too, it’s something I look up to now. I remember Stephen being one of those silent leaders who was always calm and collected.”
No matter what happens in Wednesday night’s Regional Semifinal against Leland, or possibly after that, this year’s Calvary Baptist team, and specifically its group of seniors, have already cemented its legacy.
“We put in so many hours of work to improve our game and improve our chances in the season,” Tomko said. “When we first entered the MHSAA our freshmen year, we had a really solid group of seniors and juniors. Going into that, we did kind of set a high standard. It’s so cool that four years into being in the MHSAA, we won a District, and hopefully more. Looking back, it’s really cool to see how much this team has accomplished.”
Paul Costanzo served as a sportswriter at The Port Huron Times Herald from 2006-15, including three years as lead sportswriter, and prior to that as sports editor at the Hillsdale Daily News from 2005-06. He can be reached at [email protected] with story ideas for Genesee, Lapeer, St. Clair, Sanilac, Huron, Tuscola, Saginaw, Bay, Arenac, Midland and Gladwin counties.
PHOTOS (Top) Midland Calvary Baptist’s Charley Tomko, far left, sends a shot during a game this season. (Middle) The Calvary Baptist seniors (and coach), from left: John Adams, Isaac Wallace, coach James Day, Lucian Snyder, Charley Tomko and Dyllon Ouderkirk. (Photos courtesy of the Calvary Baptist boys soccer program.