Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
Records May Not Show It - Yet - But Kingsley Soccer Improving, Ready to Rise
By
Tom Spencer
Special for MHSAA.com
October 21, 2022
Kingsley did not go on unnoticed this fall in Northwest Conference soccer play.
In fact, many took considerable notice of the Stags.
And, the coaches of the league’s top teams are looking for even bigger things ahead from Kingsley. Quite, frankly, they’re hoping it comes to fruition for their own teams’ sakes.
“It’s always beneficial to have a solid conference – as it helps teams prepare for playoffs,” said Rob Sirrine, coach of this year’s league title winner, Leland. “We expect them to improve in the next few years.
“Kingsley has had a rough go of it the last few years – not unlike other schools in our conference that also have football teams,” he continued. “I think they have some potential based on the coaches they have brought in and volunteers that are helping out the program.”
Second-year Kingsley head coach Tim VanWingerden welcomed Mike Alanson as a volunteer varsity assistant coach and two middle school coaches — Bert Baker and Lars Mitchell — this fall. Baker and Mitchell had kids on the Stags’ middle school squad this season.
League opponents, including the varsity coaches, noted big differences already.
Buckley coach John Vermilya, whose Bears finished second this year after winning the crown a year ago, echoed Sirrine.
“Kingsley has shown incredible resilience over the last three seasons,” Vermilya said. “This season they bounced back with an influx of young players, and you can see their growing tactical awareness along with technical ability.”
Youth soccer is growing in the Kingsley community as well, adding to the excitement. In fact, VanWindergen has two boys —Ted, 10, and Gunnar, 9, playing in the youth program. Tabatha VanWingerden, wife of the Stags’ head coach, is the coach of the U-12 team.
Mitch Miggenburg, Kingsley’s athletic director, is pleased to see the growth in numbers as the Stags move through “a 3-5 year” plan to become more competitive in soccer and cross country. He’s hoping those sports can find success similar to that of the Stags’ football team.
Kingsley is 6-2 on the gridiron and looking ahead to the football playoffs again. The Stags are fielding a full squad of cross country runners this fall after some lean years.
With an enrollment of well under 500, Kingsley has been able to involve 62 boys in football, 10 in cross country and 17 in soccer. Miggenburg noted cuts had to be made to the school’s co-ed middle school team this fall.
“I think we’re headed in the right direction,” Miggenburg said. “If you look at our record, you might not see it.
“This is not something that is going to happen overnight,” he continued. “In order for us to develop the way we want to develop, we’ve got to put some time in outside the season. And we have some coaches willing to help and do that, and it will only benefit us in the future.”
The Stags have not won a game the last two seasons, but VanWingerden believes success, as defined by wins, is right around the corner. He knows his team has shown moments of brilliance in every contest before the goals mounted against the Stags.
VanWingerden and Kingsley have been praised for outstanding sportsmanship by referees, opposing players and coaches.
Other bright spots in 2022 included outstanding play by freshman goalie Nate Lamie and stellar defense by senior captain Zakkeus Bedford. The Stags will have to overcome the loss of Bedford, their only senior this year, who played with tremendous drive and was the leader on the field.
But, they should return rest of the squad hungry for wins. And, they’ll add some solid incoming freshman players.
“I think next year is going to be a big turnaround,” VanWingerden predicted. “So the next two, three years, we’re going to start turning some heads.”
Despite not experiencing wins either of the last two seasons, the Stags have enjoyed playing soccer.
“There is a camaraderie there with these kids I just can’t quite put my finger on, but it’s part of what binds them better, facing that adversity on a regular basis and getting though it together as a team,” VanWingerden said. “They’ve come to practice the next day determined to work hard and try to improve little by little.
“The common goal to get better pulls them together and gives them a determination that is hard to find.”
Many conference games this year were played 9 vs. 9 or 10 vs. 10 per conference agreement. Benzie Central and Glen Lake played with fewer than 11 players in every contest this season. Benzie Central, Glen Lake, Kingsley and Suttons Bay all compete in cross country, football and soccer. Leland and Buckley do not field football squads.
The Comets won a District championship 1-0 on Thursday at Suttons Bay. The Bears are playing in a District Final on Saturday in Lakeview. Kingsley’s 0-19 season ended with a Division 3 District-opening loss to Boyne City last week.
The Stags have already begun working on next year. Offseason plans include drop-in soccer and participation in a newly-developed strength and conditioning program.
“The program is not going to move forward unless we put in a ton of work,” VanWingerden acknowledged. “We’ve had glimpses into what we could be if we did it on a regular basis.
“It is really encouraging.”
Tom Spencer is a longtime MHSAA-registered basketball and soccer official, and former softball and baseball official, and he also has coached in the northern Lower Peninsula area. He previously has written for the Saginaw News, Bay County Sports Page and Midland Daily News. He can be reached at [email protected] with story ideas for Manistee, Wexford, Missaukee, Roscommon, Ogemaw, Iosco, Alcona, Oscoda, Crawford, Kalkaska, Grand Traverse, Benzie, Leelanau, Antrim, Otsego, Montmorency, Alpena, Presque Isle, Cheboygan, Charlevoix and Emmet counties.
PHOTOS (Top) Kingsley’s Rolando Torres works to gain possession against Traverse City Bulldogs’ Tyler Ritola (17), Jonathon Scott (27) and Syrus Ritola (19), as Josephine Arrowood officiates. (Middle) This fall’s Kingsley soccer team. (Below) Zakkeus Bedford lines up a kick this season. (Photos courtesy of the Kingsley athletic department.)