Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
Best of Divine Child's Blairs May Be Last as Kennedy Paces Hopeful Falcons
By
Keith Dunlap
Special for MHSAA.com
January 12, 2023
DEARBORN – The Blair family’s presence within Dearborn Divine Child athletics – and most significantly in basketball – has stretched more than a decade as youngest-of-five-siblings Kennedy Blair takes the court for the last of her four seasons on the Falcons’ varsity.
There was Morgan, who was on Divine Child’s 2011 Class B championship team and went on to a college career at Northern Kentucky and Hillsdale.
Next was Riley, Kennedy’s other older sister who played at Divine Child and Ferris State.
Kennedy’s two older brothers, Quinn and Gannon, also played basketball at Divine Child, with Quinn going on to play in college at William & Mary.
“Being able to watch them play, it helped me grow my IQ,” Kennedy said. “They definitely are huge role models to me.”
Given how all five Blairs loved basketball, one can only imagine the battles that took place on the family’s backyard court.
“We always fought because we are so competitive,” Kennedy said with a laugh. “We play occasionally, and it never turns out well.”
Now a senior at Divine Child, Kennedy, a 5-foot-9 point guard, is not only the last of the siblings to star at Divine Child, but she also might be the best.
Blair is one of the most talented basketball players in the state, coming off a 2021-22 season during which she was named first-team all-state in Division 1 after averaging more than 20 points, eight rebounds, four assists and four steals per game.
There’s been no letup or seniorities this year, as going into Tuesday’s game against Ann Arbor Father Gabriel Richard, Blair was averaging 20 points, nine rebounds, six assists and four steals a contest for a Divine Child team that will take a 9-2 record into a Friday game at traditional state and Catholic League powerhouse Bloomfield Hills Marian.
“You know you have a pretty special player because it’s so impressive to lead in essentially every statistical category for all four years,” said Divine Child head coach Mary Laney, who is in her 19th season at the helm of the program.
Laney said Blair has been even better this year thanks in large part to an increased emphasis in two areas.
One was strength and conditioning over the offseason.
“She’s really gotten even stronger,” Laney said. “She put forth a great deal of effort — more so than in previous offseasons — in regards to strength and conditioning. She came into this season in better condition and stronger than during any other season. That’s helped her game.”
The other was continuing to evolve into just as big of a force on defense as she is on offense.
“She’s really long and always could get a lot of deflections,” Laney said. “Those are now turning into steals. She rebounds the ball really well.”
As was the case with Morgan, Riley and Quinn, Kennedy won’t be done with basketball after high school, as she has signed to play for Bowling Green.
“It was the best fit for me,” Kennedy said. “They know where I’m going to fit in the offense and recruited me really strictly. They knew everything about me and made sure to take their time following everything I do, which I appreciate as a player.”
Before worrying about college basketball though, Kennedy wants to become the second player in the family to have a state championship ring.
Kennedy admits to hearing some good-natured trash talking from Morgan about how she has a championship, and it’s not out of the realm of possibility Kennedy can be a part of a title-winning team as well.
Divine Child was in Division 1 last year, but is competing in Division 2 this season. The Falcons were tied for No. 9 in the first Associated Press poll, released earlier this week.
That doesn’t necessarily mean the path to the Finals will be easier, especially with traditional state power Detroit Edison possibly looming in Regionals.
But with one of the state’s best players regardless of division, the sky is the limit for Divine Child.
“We can get it this year,” Kennedy said. “I can feel it.”
Keith Dunlap has served in Detroit-area sports media for more than two decades, including as a sportswriter at the Oakland Press from 2001-16 primarily covering high school sports but also college and professional teams. His bylines also have appeared in USA Today, the Washington Post, the Detroit Free Press, the Houston Chronicle and the Boston Globe. He served as the administrator for the Oakland Activities Association’s website from 2017-2020. Contact him at [email protected] with story ideas for Oakland, Macomb and Wayne counties.
PHOTOS (Top) Divine Child’s Kennedy Blair considers her options while directing the team’s offense. (Middle) Blair celebrates with her teammates. (Photos by Rick Jakacki, Dearborn Divine Child athletics.)