Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
DeMott's Long-Revered Legacy Grows to Include All-Time Wins Record
By
Paul Costanzo
Special for MHSAA.com
January 11, 2023
This past Friday night felt like a home game for Al DeMott.
Family, friends and former players were packed into the stands to watch him set the MHSAA record for career wins by a girls basketball coach.
There was a postgame celebration on the court, and a congratulatory message displayed on the video board.
Of course, DeMott and the Wolves hadn’t just won a game in their home gym – they had done it at Unionville-Sebewaing.
But anywhere in the Thumb can feel like home.
“USA, they really did a lot,” DeMott said. “They put a thing up on the board, their coach came out after the game and said all kinds of nice things. USA was a very generous host. They went above and beyond.
“That’s the way it is in Thumb basketball; we all look after each other and support each other. In all sports, really. When one team goes on a run, the whole Thumb gets on the bandwagon.”
Sandusky’s win was the 798th of DeMott’s career, putting him ahead of retired Detroit Country Day coach Frank Orlando on the all-time list.
It’s a record more than 40 years in the making, as DeMott took over the program in 1979. In that time, Sandusky has won 23 league titles, 27 District titles, seven Regional titles and earned an MHSAA Finals runner-up finish (1999). The program hasn’t had a losing season since 1982.
“I’ve been doing it a long time,” DeMott said. “Our program has had a lot of success. We’ve had a pretty good run going for a lot of years. The numbers don’t really mean that much to me. It’s nice for our program that it’s been successful as it has. That it’s been steady for a long time. There are a lot of good people that have done a good job.”
DeMott’s career record stands at 799-206, as the Wolves won another game Tuesday night to push their season record to 9-2.
Before he’s done, the record will no doubt be well above 800. How far above depends on how long DeMott sticks around. Right now, there’s no immediate plan to stop.
“Every year, when you get done with the year and your season ends, you’re tired,” DeMott said. “But I’m still having a lot of fun doing it. Another thing, God’s blessed me with good health. I’ve been fortunate to keep going strong with this. I’ve been working on trying to get someone to take it over – I’ve got a granddaughter in eighth grade, and I would like to sit and watch her.”
One thing that keeps DeMott going is the support he gets from those around him in the program.
He’s had the opportunity to coach with his three daughters, Desiree, Allison and Marissa, who also played for him. His longtime assistant coach and childhood friend, Ray Lee, has been on the staff since 1982. DeMott said that during his time at Sandusky, he’s had only six or seven JV coaches.
“I have such a good support system,” DeMott said. “I have loyal assistant coaches.”
The community, both in Sandusky and throughout the Thumb, also has shown DeMott tremendous support, even as he was struggling to get the program off the ground in the early years.
“With the start I had here, if somebody got off to the start I did, they’d be gone, probably,” DeMott said. “It’s been phenomenal. I can’t believe all the texts and emails and calls I’ve got. People have gone above and beyond. There’s been a lot of support. We’ve always got really good support.”
And, of course, nothing can beat the support that DeMott gets at home, as his wife Tammy has been there since the beginning.
“My wife has been a saint,” DeMott said. “When I first started doing this coaching, she was a little iffy about it. When I first started, I was working at the bank and I only had two weeks vacation. We used to use one of the weeks of vacation to go to team camp. She stays up and does stats with me. She’s my biggest supporter I’ve ever had.”
All that support has allowed DeMott to build a consistent winner at a public school with an enrollment just over 300 students.
He started a youth program fairly early in his time at Sandusky, and it’s still going strong. He said there were 40 third and fourth graders in the gym this past Saturday starting their latest season.
As kids grow up in the program, they dream of one day playing for the varsity team and DeMott.
“This achievement couldn’t have been accomplished by a more humble and deserving person,” said Haley Nelson, a 2018 Sandusky grad who played for DeMott before playing at Saginaw Valley State. “In Sandusky, playing under Coach DeMott is something you look forward to as soon as you start playing basketball in elementary school. He’s built a standard as to what Sandusky girls basketball is, and it made you want to work hard to live up to it. The program he’s built is a testament to his hard work and dedication year-round. I think it would be tough to find another high school coach as committed to their program as Al is. He sees each of his players as people far beyond what they can contribute on the court, and for that reason, the impact he has on his players extends far beyond basketball.”
Nelson is one of many Sandusky players who have gone onto play at the next level. Many have stayed connected to the sport through coaching, as well. But in general, DeMott touts the academic success of his program, and the pride he has in the citizens his former players have grown to be.
“A lot of our former players, they’ve all done a lot of really good things,” DeMott said. “I couldn’t be prouder. There were quite a few there (at USA). It meant a lot to see them.”
One former player-turned-coach is Wayne State women’s basketball coach Carrie Lohr, who has set records of her own. She’s in her 12th season at Wayne State, and has won nearly 200 games. She became the program’s all-time winningest coach in 2019.
She counts DeMott as one of her biggest influences.
"Al is truly one of the best coaches in the state of Michigan," Lohr said. "I believe he could coach any team or sport to its highest potential. Al has an unwavering dedication and passion for the game of basketball and teaching young people. He is selfless, positive, consistent, knowledgeable and truly cares about the players he leads.
“Playing for Coach Al DeMott is still some of my best basketball memories ever. He has truly made a positive impact on my life as he has done for so many who have worn the Sandusky jersey. I wouldn't be where I am today without his mentorship. I am forever grateful to him and his support of me long after I left the court."
With the record behind him, DeMott now hopes the focus can return to this year’s team, which is 9-2 with its losses coming by a combined five points.
It’s clear he’s excited about this group, as the energy in his voice ratcheted up when asked about his players.
“I’ve got an awesome group to coach,” DeMott said. “They’re really good, smart, hard workers. They want to be successful, and they really like to play together. They love playing together. They’re a special group.”
Paul Costanzo served as a sportswriter at The Port Huron Times Herald from 2006-15, including three years as lead sportswriter, and prior to that as sports editor at the Hillsdale Daily News from 2005-06. He can be reached at [email protected] with story ideas for Genesee, Lapeer, St. Clair, Sanilac, Huron, Tuscola, Saginaw, Bay, Arenac, Midland and Gladwin counties.
PHOTOS (Top) Sandusky girls basketball coach Al DeMott stands alongside his current team after they helped him break the MHSAA record for girls basketball victories Friday at Unionville-Sebewaing. (Middle) The USA scoreboard celebrated DeMott’s accomplishment. (Below) Players line up to congratulate DeMott on his milestone win. (Photos courtesy of Sandusky High School.)