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Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
![Escanaba's Keira Maki (12) leads a break against Menominee on Jan. 16.](/sites/default/files/2023-01/230127_Escanaba_2H.jpg)
Summer Strides, Preseason Confidence Showing in Escanaba's Excellent Start
By
John Vrancic
Special for MHSAA.com
January 27, 2023
ESCANABA — So far, so good for the Escanaba girls basketball team. The Eskymos are 13-0 after rolling to a 65-36 triumph at Bark River-Harris last Friday, with three more wins already than all of last season.
Coach Tracy Hudson said everything started in a cornfield in Carney during the summer.
“We lost to Ewen-Trout Creek, West Iron County and Bark River-Harris in summer tournaments,” he added. “We were taking a step back and a step forward. We kind of found ourselves in a small gym at Carney-Nadeau. We had to go through some growing pains, but played real well at Michigan Tech and Marquette. We came out of the summer feeling we could be all right.”
They’ve been outstanding.
Coming off a 10-10 finish last season, Escanaba has won nine of its games by double digits under Hudson, who took over the girls program this season after leading the varsity boys from 1997-2022.
The Eskymos improved to 5-0 in the Great Northern Conference with a 62-46 triumph over Menominee on Jan. 16 and have a two-game lead in the league standings with three GNC games to play.
“It feels great to be where we are,” said senior forward Mari Bink, who averages 15.1 points a game. “We were confident coming into the season, but you never know what can happen. We enjoy playing together, and we’re having fun. It’s crazy, but we get excited.”
Hudson is happy with all the success as well but knows the Eskymos will be tested in the days to come. They visit Calumet (10-2) tonight and Houghton (12-1) on Feb. 3.
“The teams in the Keweenaw are very good,” he said. “We’re going to have to bring our A game. Our team motto is ‘All In.’ Coach (Lisa) Maki and the girls came up with it. We have to bring it every day. I think we still have a lot of room for growth.”
Still, Escanaba will enter those games having handed the lone loss to another of the elite teams from the Keweenaw. Sophomore center Grayson LaMarche scored the game-winner on a layup in the final 12 seconds of a 50-49 win over Hancock (11-1) on Jan. 13.
“They definitely have some good teams in the Copper Country,” said senior point guard Carney Salo, who was forced out of that game after hitting her head on the floor late in the third quarter. “I had a rough couple days, but it felt good playing in the Menominee game (three days later).
“I didn’t have any hesitation. We were able to take away (Menominee’s) passing lanes. Defense is the one thing you can control.”
Escanaba is giving up just under 46 points per game against a schedule that’s included wins over four teams with at least 10 wins and eight teams .500 or better. Rival Marquette would be a ninth over .500 if not for a sweep by the Eskymos.
Salo, who didn’t play last season due to an ACL injury, is averaging 7.3 points, 3.5 assists and 2.4 steals per game.
“A personal highlight is just getting a chance to play after missing last year,” she said. “I think that makes me more motivated, although you always want to give it your all.”
Junior forward Keira Maki, a 49-percent field goal shooter, scored 24 points and LaMarche added 13 at BR-H.
“That has become a good rivalry,” said Maki. “They’re quick, and they put a lot of pressure on you. They don’t give up. They’re definitely well coached.”
Maki is averaging 17.8 points, 9.9 rebounds, 1.9 blocked shots, four steals and 2.8 assists per game. She went down with an ankle injury during a 49-33 triumph at Alpena on Dec. 13 but returned in time to help the Eskymos post a 74-44 triumph at Gladstone two weeks later.
“Gladstone definitely has a good freshman (Lillie Johnson), but we put it all together and got the ball moving a lot,” said Maki. “They had a few other players we also had to stop. I felt I wasn’t as well prepared as I could have been if I hadn’t gotten injured at Alpena.”
The Eskymos opened this season with a 65-50 triumph at Marquette, then defeated Gaylord St. Mary (60-45) and the host Ramblers (50-42) in the McBain Invitational.
“We felt we needed to get a win at Marquette,” said Hudson. “Gaylord St. Mary and McBain were polar opposites and got on a little bit of a roll after that. The game with Sault Ste. Marie (a 62-57 victory) was a very big game here. That was similar to Hancock. We couldn’t relax for a moment.
“We’ve separated from the rest of the GNC teams a little and found a way to win the close games. We’re excited about where we’re at. It’s like whipped cream right now, but we’ve told the girls to keep the eye of the tiger and keep improving.”
Junior guard Saylor Henderson has provided timely shooting from outside, hitting 37 percent of her shots from 3-point range and 44 percent inside the arc. She’s averaging 7.2 points.
“The 3-point shot is a big part of our game, and Saylor is a green-light shooter for us,” said Hudson. “Because we play uptempo, we get good looks in transition. We’re also a good free throw shooting team (averaging 67 percent).”
Hudson said he also appreciates the help from the assistant coaches.
“Coach Maki has done a real good job,” he added. “She understands the girls, and our younger coaches (C.J. Barron and Darren Landis) absorb everything like a sponge.”
John Vrancic has covered high school sports in the Upper Peninsula since joining the Escanaba Daily Press staff in 1985. He is known most prominently across the peninsula for his extensive coverage of cross country and track & field that frequently appears in newspapers from the Wisconsin border to Lake Huron. He received the James Trethewey Award for Distinguished Service in 2015 from the Upper Peninsula Sportswriters and Sportscasters Association.
PHOTOS (Top) Escanaba's Keira Maki (12) leads a break against Menominee during a Jan. 16 victory. (Middle) Eskymos coach Tracy Hudson talks things over with his team during last Friday's win over Bark River-Harris. (Photos courtesy of RRNSports.com.)