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Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
![Dansville sets up to defend during last week's 38-28 win over Bath.](/sites/default/files/2023-01/230123_gbb_2H.jpg)
Breslin Bound: 2022-23 Girls Report Week 8
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
January 23, 2023
Of course, what matters most is ending the season with a win – and only four fortunate Michigan high school girls basketball teams do so every winter.
But as we cruise into the second half of this regular season, it’s notable to highlight the 18 teams that have played nearly two months without experiencing defeat.
We detail a few of those below, but the list in whole includes Farmington Hills Mercy, Detroit Renaissance, Temperance Bedford, North Farmington and Flint Carman-Ainsworth from Division 1; Escanaba, Grand Rapids West Catholic, Lake Fenton, Haslett, Vicksburg and Warren Fitzgerald in Division 2; Bronson and Detroit Osborn in Division 3, and Kingston, Morenci, Mackinaw City, Brethren and Norway in Division 4.
“Breslin Bound” is powered by MI Student Aid and based on results and schedules posted for each school at MHSAA.com.
Week in Review
The countdown of last week’s five most intriguing results:
1. Haslett 55, DeWitt 52 The Division 2 Vikings (12-0) won this nonleague matchup of undefeated teams, sending Division 1 DeWitt to 10-1.
2. Flint Carman-Ainsworth 45, Grand Blanc 43 The Cavaliers (10-0) remained undefeated overall and also in the Saginaw Valley League in handing the Bobcats (8-4) their first SVL loss.
3. East Grand Rapids 49, Lowell 40 The Pioneers (10-2) bounced back from defeat to hand Lowell (10-2) its first loss of the season.
4. Morenci 48, Petersburg Summerfield 41 Morenci (12-0) maintained an edge both locally in the Tri-County Conference and statewide in Division 4 with Summerfield (12-2) also among the elite.
5. Utica Eisenhower 47, Grosse Pointe North 46 After losing to North by 14 a month ago, Eisenhower (9-3) evened the season series with this close win over the Norsemen (11-2).
Watch List
With an eye toward March, here are two teams in each division making sparks:
DIVISION 1
Brighton (8-3) In finishing 17-8 and fourth last season in the Kensington Lakes Activities Association West, Brighton lost twice to Howell, Northville and Brighton. In leading the conference this winter, Brighton has defeated all three plus second-place Salem by 20 points. The Bulldogs are on an eight-game winning streak after opening 0-3 with two of those losses to teams still undefeated.
West Bloomfield (11-2) The reigning Division 1 champion Lakers also have won eight straight, with their only losses to reigning Division 3 champion Ypsilanti Arbor Prep (by four) and Indiana power South Bend Washington. Meanwhile, West Bloomfield has wins over South Lyon East, Rochester Hills Stoney Creek, Clarkston and Rochester – which all have won at least eight games – plus Detroit Cass Tech and Illinois power Chicago Kenwood.
DIVISION 2
Dearborn Divine Child (11-2) The Falcons opened the calendar year with a solid 63-62 win over Redford Westfield Prep, then had a brief bobble with losses to Warren Regina and Ann Arbor Father Gabriel Richard – but are right back in contention in the Detroit Catholic League Central with their first meeting with league leader Farmington Hills Mercy on Tuesday. Divine Child is coming off defeating eight-win Grosse Ile, and also has a nice victory over Salem and handed Dansville its only loss this winter.
Houghton (10-1) The Gremlins are coming off a 51-46 win over another Upper Peninsula contender in Calumet, and have won six straight since their lone defeat to West Iron County. Last season’s 18-4 finish included a split with the Copper Kings, a sweep by Hancock and a playoff loss to Negaunee. Houghton also has a win over Negaunee this season and sees Hancock for the first time Feb. 9. Six of 10 wins are against teams .500 or better, with a 14-point victory over 10-win Baraga another major highlight.
DIVISION 3
Elk Rapids (9-2) There may have been no better way to come back from a Jan. 13 loss to Traverse City St. Francis than Elk Rapids’ 51-42 win over Harbor Springs four days later, and those three teams all top the Lake Michigan Conference with one league loss apiece. Elk Rapids’ only other defeat was to Division 4 contender Maple City Glen Lake. The Elks won the LMC last season before losing to St. Francis in their District, and get the next chance to break that streak against the Gladiators on Feb. 9.
Ypsilanti Arbor Prep (6-4) The Gators always load their regular-season schedule in preparation for the postseason, and it paid off with another Division 3 title last winter. This season’s losses were to Division 2 Westfield Prep, Lake Fenton and Chelsea (two of those in overtime), and to Illinois power Chicago Butler. As noted above, Arbor Prep has defeated West Bloomfield, among four teams with double-digit wins – Tecumseh, Father Gabriel Richard and Madison Heights Bishop Foley are the others.
DIVISION 4
Gaylord St. Mary (9-2) The Snowbirds have won nine straight since opening with losses to still-undefeated Escanaba and New Lothrop. All nine of those wins have come by double digits as St. Mary has vaulted back to the top of the Ski Valley Conference after sharing the title in 2021 and winning it outright last season. Expectations should remain high again after last season’s playoff run ended in the Quarterfinals against eventual champion Fowler.
Pittsford (10-2) The Wildcats also have won nine straight, all by double digits as well, as they seek to build off last year’s 18-4 finish. The losses came early to Hudson and Sand Creek, who both have won at least eight games, and Pittsford also has avenged last season’s defeat to Athens – another eight-game winner so far this winter. Pittsford more recently defeated Hillsdale Academy, a nine-game winner, in a key Southern Central Athletic Association matchup.
Can’t-Miss Contests
Be on the lookout for results of these games coming up:
Tuesday – Dearborn Divine Child (11-2) at Farmington Hills Mercy (12-0) – As noted above, this matches two of the top three in the Catholic League Central and after these two split last season’s two meetings.
Tuesday – Byron Center (10-3) at East Grand Rapids (10-2) – EGR has a Saturday matchup with undefeated Detroit Renaissance, but first up is a key Ottawa-Kent Conference White meeting with league leader Byron Center.
Friday – Escanaba (13-0) at Calumet (9-2) – Two of the best in the Upper Peninsula face off, and they’ll actually see each other a second time Feb. 10 when both could be on their ways to league titles.
Friday – Bay City Western (11-1) at Flint Carman-Ainsworth (10-0) – These are two of three still undefeated in the Saginaw Valley League, with the only loss between them Western’s to Big North Conference contender Traverse City Central.
Friday – Temperance Bedford (12-0) at Saline (11-1) – A Saline loss last week to Grass Lake kept this from being a matchup of undefeated squads, but these two top the Southeastern Conference Red and are among the highly-regarded statewide in Division 1.
MHSAA.com's weekly “Breslin Bound” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Office of Postsecondary Financial Planning located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 college savings programs (MET/MESP), as well as scholarship and grant programs that help make college Accessible, Affordable and Attainable for you. Connect with MI Student Aid at www.michigan.gov/mistudentaid and find more information on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.
PHOTOS (Top) Dansville sets up to defend during last week's 38-28 win over Bath. (Middle) Rochester Hills Lutheran Northwest's Aliyah Ozias (2) drives to the basket against Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook Kingswood during a 62-32 victory. (Top photo by Click by Christine McCallister. Middle photo by Chris Mudd; click for more from National Photo Scout Action Photos.)