New Cast Maintaining Marian's Success
By
Tom Markowski
Special for Second Half
January 28, 2016
BLOOMFIELD HILLS – When word leaked out last April that sisters Bailey and Samantha Thomas would be moving to Nevada and not returning to Bloomfield Hills Marian for the 2015-16 school year, reporters and basketball fans alike did a quick math equation.
Marian would graduate three seniors who started plus its top reserve and, with this news, would lose its top six players from a team that won the program’s second consecutive Class A title.
Everyone outside of Marian anticipated a changing of the guard. No longer would the Mustangs be the team to beat in the Detroit Catholic League, and any thoughts of a third consecutive title were dismissed.
That’s not all. Senior McKenna Landis, who would have been a three-year varsity player and the starting point guard, suffered a season-ending knee ligament injury in a non-basketball incident.
Mary Cicerone is in her 33rd season as head coach, and she’s uncertain whether she’s entered a season before where experience, and the amount of seniors, was at such a premium.
But as far as assessing coaches, Cicerone is at the top in maintaining a competitive edge, and thus, a positive outlook.
“Most of my players play more than one sport,” Cicerone said. “Many (five) play soccer. Another plays volleyball. For the first time, basketball is second fiddle to most of my players.
“We’re going to show up. I thought we’d be competitive. What are we, 9-3 now? I thought we should be 10-2. I’m competitive. I have some good athletes. We’re figuring out what they’re good at.”
Marian is 9-2 and, at 6-1, in first place in the league’s Central Division. Its lone division loss was at Warren Regina, 35-33, on a shot at the buzzer. Few would have thought this before the season but, at this point, Marian is the favorite to win the league title. Should the Mustangs win the title, it would be Cicerone’s 13th.
If it happens, it’s not a fluke. Like all of Cicerone’s teams, this one plays defense – and few teams, at least in Metro Detroit, play defense with more intensity than Marian.
Take the Regina game as an example. Marian trailed by 11 points late in the third quarter. The Mustangs forced 10 turnovers in the fourth quarter and nearly shocked the Saddlelites.
Maria Hickey and Elizabeth Grobbel are the only seniors on the team and quite possibly Cicerone’s hardest workers.
Hickey said it’s up to her and Grobbel to set an example for the younger players. Last season they earned valuable experience during and more so in practice going against the state’s best.
“We returned four players,” Hickey said. “We didn’t know McKenna would be out. We were very underestimated. We adjusted well. We had a target on our back. Everyone wants to say they beat the defending state champs.
“Defense has to be above the offense. Defense takes up 60, 70 percent of our practices. Maybe more. We press some. Our favorite is the man-to-man, full court. We never play zone. (Cicerone) laughs when we bring it up. We also run the 1-2-2 zone press. We call it the mustang. It’s risky. When it works, it works great. It changes things up.
“Experience? Every player has experience in the program. But not everyone has experience playing this type of defense.”
This team doesn’t have a go-to player. Grobbel, a 6-1 forward, might be the team’s top 3-point shooter. Lauren Montalbano, a 5-5 junior, is one of the best at going to the basket. And at point guard, Olivia Moore is a fine ball handler, but she’s a freshman still gaining varsity experience. Uche Ike, a 5-11 sophomore, is a strong and athletic post player but didn’t start playing basketball until the eighth grade and is still learning the fundamentals.
“I told the kids in the beginning that we’re not going to win because we’re great basketball players,” Cicerone said. “It’s our defense that will carry us. Many of them don’t pick up a basketball until November. I ask them, why shoot? You haven’t touched a basketball in months.”
Cicerone is all for her players to play other sports. And it’s these other sports that are their main ones. But it does try her patience when some compete in travel leagues or AAU events so much so they miss a practice here or there, and a game now and then.
On the other side of the coin, playing the other sports does contribute to their athleticism. For a team like Marian that relies heavily on defense, having good, all-around athletes is a plus.
Cicerone knows her team will have a challenge competing with Class A powers like Saginaw Heritage and Southfield-Lathrup in the MHSAA Tournament. But it’s not a stretch to forecast the Mustangs winning another league title, possibly a District title, and pulling off an upset in the Regionals.
Whatever the opposition, no matter how talented they are, Cicerone refuses to give in. Marian has won six MHSAA titles with her on the bench, and a coach doesn’t win that many by taking anything for granted.
“I’ve had my day in the sun,” Cicerone said. “I go up and down with my team. I don’t expect much on offense. But we can play defense.
“We’re not going to do what we’re not good at. We want them to do the things they are good at."
Tom Markowski is a columnist and directs website coverage for the State Champs! Sports Network. He previously covered primarily high school sports for the The Detroit News from 1984-2014, focusing on the Detroit area and contributing to statewide coverage of football and basketball. Contact him at [email protected] with story ideas for Oakland, Macomb and Wayne counties.
PHOTOS: (Top) Marian's Uche Ike works to move the ball upcourt against Farmington Hills Mercy. (Middle) Hannah Redoute works to corral a loose ball. (Below) Elizabeth Grobbel moves to the basket with a pair of Mercy players defending. (Photos courtesy of the Bloomfield Hills Marian athletic department.)
Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.