Lakers' Historical Runs Lives On
March 14, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
EAST LANSING – One way or another, Waterford Our Lady of the Lakes was going to be one of the most intriguing stories from this weekend’s MHSAA Girls Basketball Finals at the Breslin Center.
But with a quarter to play in Thursday’s last Class D Semifinal, it wasn’t going to be for the reason the Lakers would’ve liked.
Our Lady will play Saturday to become only the second team in MHSAA girls basketball history to win four straight Finals championships. But it’s an opportunity that came about only because the team survived arguably its greatest scare since starting this incredible run in 2010.
The Lakers didn’t score in the second quarter and trailed Athens by seven with a eight minutes to play before emerging with a 35-27 victory over the team they also beat in last season’s championship game.
“I was just kinda waiting for when it was going to happen,” Our Lady senior guard Ava Doetsch said. “I knew it was going to happen. After halftime came, (I thought) it has to be the third quarter. Then, it has to be the fourth quarter. And then it did.”
The No. 9 Lakers (21-4) will face top-ranked St. Ignace in Saturday’s first championship game, at 10 a.m. The Saints, like Our Lady, have made it to the Breslin Center each of the last three seasons. They won Class C in 2011 and fell in that class’ Semifinals a year ago.
Another championship would tie the Lakers with Flint Northern’s 1978-81 teams for the longest girls basketball streak in MHSAA history. Only four teams, boys or girls, have won four or more consecutive MHSAA titles – on the boys side, River Rouge won four from 1969-72 and five from 1961-65, and Crystal Falls Forest Park won four straight Upper Peninsula championships from 1938-41 during the era when separate tournaments were held for each peninsula.
But before Our Lady could consider any of that, it had to get past Athens again. And that proved much tougher than in last winter’s 53-37 Finals victory.
After senior guard Lexie Robak hit a 3-pointer with 3:37 to go in the first quarter to give the Lakers a 9-3 lead, they didn’t make another field goal until 3:10 into the third quarter – a stretch of nearly 15 minutes.
That shot cut Athens’ lead to 18-13. The Indians (22-4) went into the fourth quarter up 22-15.
“We knew we had to come out and play our game and not worry about the other team,” said Robak, who with Doetsch has started all four of the team’s Finals wins. “I don't know why we were nervous, but we were. When we got rid of those, we started playing our game.”
Both teams struggled to find the basket – Our Lady shot only 26 percent from the floor for the game, and Athens came in at 19 percent.
But the Lakers found their sharpness in the fourth, hitting 5 of 7 shots from the floor and 8 of 15 free throw attempts to finish on a 20-5 run that was nearly as shocking as the drought had been earlier.
Meanwhile, Athens had 11 of its 21 turnovers over the final 7:41 as the Lakers turned up the pressure.
“I don’t think we got in the positions that we should’ve gotten in to be successful in breaking that press,” Indians coach Calvin Quist said. “We’ve been pressed during this season, but not a whole lot because we usually handle it well. We didn’t handle it well, and that was the difference in the game.”
Lexie Robak finished with 13 points and Doetsch had eight and five steals. But the key may have been junior forward Anna Robb, who made 3 of 5 shots for seven points and grabbed a team-high seven rebounds as well.
Senior Chantel Davenport led Athens with 11 points and grabbed seven rebounds, and junior Audrey Oswalt grabbed 11 rebounds.
“It’s probably not the way we imagined it might go,” Our Lady coach Steve Robak said. “But when the fourth quarter rolled around, and this group’s backs were against the wall, there was never any doubt in our huddle. And certainly (not) with this group.”
PHOTOS: (Top) Waterford Our Lady's Ava Doetsch (20) works to drive around Athens' Allison Fuller during Thursday's Class D Semifinal. (Middle) Athens' Audrey Oswalt (22) make a strong move to the basket. (Photos by Hockey Weekly Action Photos.)
Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.