Goodrich Gains Spot in All-Flint Final
March 15, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
EAST LANSING – On paper, at least, there were a few semi-viable reasons to not forecast Goodrich returning to Saturday’s Class B championship game at the Breslin Center.
Most of them centered on multiple injured starters, including Penn State recruit Aketra Sevillian, who never got on the floor. And after a perfect 2011-12 season, the Martians lost three games this winter – fantastic for most teams, but just a cut below what Goodrich had accomplished before.
But senior Taylor Gleason never bought any of it. She knew all along how this month would play out.
She and her teammates took another giant step in that plan Friday, downing No. 7 Grand Rapids South Christian 57-43 to advance to the title game for the second straight season – and this time set up an all-Flint Final against Powers Catholic.
“I didn’t once doubt it, even though we had three starters go down,” Gleason said. “I knew we could do this for them, we could do this for our community, We could do this, no doubt.”
“I wasn’t as sure as Taylor,” Goodrich coach Jason Gray added, Gleason and sophomore guard Tania Davis at his sides. “But these two really make it easy. They make so much happen for us. They make it so easy for their teammates. They stepped up to completely another level this year.”
The No. 3 Martians will face Powers at 6 p.m. in the day’s final championship game. The two met in District play a year ago, but found themselves on opposite sides of the bracket when lines were drawn for this season.
Goodrich’s 2012 championship further affirmed the program as one of the state’s current elite. But Powers has won four titles and long ruled Flint basketball. Late Friday night, the social media buzz already was beginning to heat up.
As they have throughout this season, Gleason and Davis led the way in their Semifinal as the Martians never trailed after the game’s first five minutes. Davis finished with 23 points and five steals, despite a hard fall that resulted in a bruised knee and a few jammed fingers. And Gleason – the Miss Basketball runner-up this week and an Illinois recruit – had 21 points, six rebounds, five assists and six steals.
The pair has played together since Gleason was in eighth grade and Davis in sixth, and their deep-rooted on-court chemistry has paid off all the more this season – as has been necessary.
“My mindset coming in (to the season) was to feed off Taylor and Kiki (Sevillian’s) energy. When Kiki went down, my whole mindset went from supporting them to stepping up and creating for myself and making my team feed off my energy,” Davis said. “I’ve really stepped into my leadership role. ... Me and Taylor both, we’re just doing an awesome job. And both of our mindsets have changed from just scoring to we have to score for us to win.”
Senior forward Anna Timmer led South Christian with eight points, nine rebounds and four assists, and the Sailors as a team outrebounded Goodrich 35-26.
But other numbers being equal or close (both had 19 field goals and South Christian just five more turnovers), Goodrich took a definite edge on free-throw shooting making 15 of 23 compared to South Christian's 2 of 5.
“We knew who their players were. They’re gamers. We tried to stop (Gleason). We tried to make things happen. We just kinda came out slow,” South Christian coach Jim DuBruyn said. “Maybe we had nervous jitters out there. They got a little lead, pulled to 5-4, and before I knew it, it was 8-4 and then it was 11-4. We had too many lulls in there. Defensively, we’ve held most teams to 33 points, but they were just a step quicker at times.”
South Christian finished 24-2, increasing its win total for the third straight season and also winning its Regional for the first time since 2004.
Ties between Saturday’s championship game opponents came to light quickly after Friday’s last game was done. Gleason’s aunt Aimee Pearson was a standout at Powers from 1995-98 and is tied for 14th-most career rebounds, with 1,009, in the MHSAA record book.
Although they don’t know each other well, Gray and Powers coach Thom Staudacher live in the same neighborhood. And Saturday surely will feel like a neighborhood clash between friendly rivals from one of the state’s traditional basketball power bases.
“We’re the two elite programs in our county, and we look to them as … they’ve won a few more state titles than we have,” Gray said. “They’re still the big dogs in the long run."
“We have a nice healthy rivalry. We’ve got rabid fans on both sides. This has the opportunity to be a real special environment (Saturday) night.”
PHOTOS: (Top) Goodrich's Tania Davis prepares to shoot a free throw during Friday's Semifinal win over Grand Rapids South Christian. (Middle) Goodrich's Katrina Ellis works against South Christian's Kayla Diemer (right) for rebounding position. (Photos by Hockey Weekly Action Photos.)
Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.