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D2 Preview: Historic Opportunities Ahead
March 21, 2019
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
From the opening tip this season, Detroit Edison has been considered arguably the top high school girls basketball team in Michigan – and potentially on its way to being remembered as one of the best in this state all-time.
But this weekend’s three other semifinalists will do everything in their power to end the Pioneers’ two-season championship run – in hopes of carving out their place in history instead.
Haslett has beaten three ranked opponents since the start of the playoffs. Freeland annually is considered one of the best in formerly Class B, now Division 2. And unbeaten Hamilton has put together one of the state’s most impressive two-year runs on the way to the Semifinals for the first time.
Division 2 Semifinals – Friday
Freeland (23-2) vs. Hamilton (25-0), 5:30 p.m.
Haslett (19-6) vs. Detroit Edison (25-1), 7:30 p.m.
Division 2 Final – Saturday, 6:15 p.m.
Tickets cost $10 per pair of Semifinals and $10 per two-game Finals session (Divisions 3 and 2). All Semifinals will be streamed live on MHSAA.tv and viewable on a pay-per-view basis. All four Finals will be broadcast live on Fox Sports Detroit and streamed live on FoxSportsDetroit.com and the FOX Sports app. Free radio broadcasts of all weekend games will be available on MHSAANetwork.com.
Below is a glance at all four semifinalists. Click on the name of the school to see that team’s full schedule and results from this season. (Statistics are through teams' Regional Finals.)
DETROIT EDISON
Record/rank: 25-1, No. 1
League finish: Does not play in a league.
Coach: Monique Brown, eighth season (125-37)
Championship history: Class C champion 2018 & 2017.
Best wins: 79-49 over No. 9 Harper Woods Chandler Park in District Semifinal, 64-51 and 74-62 over Division 1 No. 6 Wayne Memorial, 57-51 over Division 1 No. 2 Bloomfield Hills Marian, 41-37 over Division 1 No. 3 Saginaw Heritage, 64-52 over Division 1 No. 10 Muskegon, 54-39 over Division 3 No. 1 Pewamo-Westphalia.
Players to watch: Rickea Jackson, 6-3 sr. G (22.1 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 1.1 bpg); Gabrielle Elliott, 5-10 jr. G (17.4 ppg, 2.9 apg, 2.8 spg).
Outlook: Edison opted up a division this winter after winning Class C the last two seasons and has beaten most of the best in Division 1 as well – the team’s only loss was to Ohio power Columbus Africentric. Jackson, who will play next at Mississippi State, was named Miss Basketball earlier this week, and Elliott and sophomore Damiya Hagemann (14 ppg, 8.1 apg, 4.1 spg) could very well be candidates for the award the next two seasons, respectively.
FREELAND
Record/rank: 23-2, No. 7
League finish: First in Tri-Valley Conference Central
Coach: Tom Zolinski, 12th season (243-49)
Championship history: Class C champion 1998.
Best wins: 59-51 over No. 3 Stanton Central Montcalm in Regional Final, 60-46 over honorable mention Corunna in Regional Semifinal, 58-38 over Goodrich, 61-57 over Bay City Western.
Players to watch: Kadyn Blanchard, 5-10 jr. F (14.6 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 2.8 spg); Alyssa Argyle, 5-9 sr. F (10.9 ppg, 51 3-pointers, 3.4 apg).
Outlook: Freeland is back at the Semifinals for the second time in three seasons and third time this decade after winning its eighth league, 11th District and fifth Regional titles under Zolinski’s leadership. The Falcons have won all of their games during this tournament run by at least eight points. Argyle earned an all-state honorable mention last season, and senior guard Lily Beyer adds 12.3 ppg and had 39 3-pointers entering the week.
HAMILTON
Record/rank: 25-0, No. 3 (tied)
League finish: First in Ottawa-Kent Conference Green
Coach: Dan VanHekken, 16th season (225-129)
Championship history: Has not played in an MHSAA Final.
Best wins: 60-39 over No. 2 Edwardsburg in Regional Semifinal, 42-40 over Grand Rapids Catholic Central, 48-43 over Comstock Park.
Players to watch: AJ Ediger, 6-2 soph. F (20.2 ppg, 9.7 rpg, 3.3 spg); Bria Schrotenboer, 5-10 sr. G (11.4 ppg, 4.0 apg, 2.9 spg).
Outlook: Hamilton made the Quarterfinals last season for the first time, and this weekend is making its first trip to the Semifinals. The Hawkeyes are up to 71-4 over the last three seasons with three league and three District titles as well during that time. Hamilton hasn’t played a single-digit game since the Comstock Park win Jan. 11. Schrotenboer earned an all-state honorable mention last season and is part of a deep lineup that after Ediger has five players averaging at least four points per game.
HASLETT
Record/rank: 19-6, unranked
League finish: Second in Capital Area Activities Conference Red
Coach: Ross Baker, third season (37-20)
Championship history: Class B runner-up 2015.
Best wins: 46-44 over No. 5 Chelsea in Quarterfinal, 51-43 over No. 8 Jackson Northwest in Regional Final, 44-42 over No. 6 Williamston in the District Final.
Players to watch: Ella McKinney, 5-10 sr. G (13.7 ppg. 7.2 rpg); Imania Baker, 6-2 jr. C (7.2 ppg, 5.9 rpg).
Outlook: At full strength for the postseason, the Vikings have soared – the win over Williamston avenged a pair of losses from the league season, and the win over Jackson Northwest avenged a third defeat. Baker had played in just 17 games and sophomore forward Skyla Nosek 15 heading into this week – Baker starts at center and Nosek (7.8 ppg) is the team’s second-leading scorer and comes off the bench. Junior forward Olivia Green (7.7) also augments a balanced lineup, and senior guard Hannah Homan is another top sub and added 6.7 ppg and had 52 3-pointers coming into this week.
PHOTO: Detroit Edison’s Ruby Whitehorn defends against Center Line during their Regional Final last week. (Photo courtesy of C&G Newspapers.)
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Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.