Countdown to Calvin: Girls Regional Preview
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
March 11, 2019
While rematches and revenge will be the minds of many playing in Girls Basketball Regionals beginning tonight, rewards will be the end result for only 32 teams fortunate enough to advance past Wednesday and into the winter’s final week.
All 128 District champions will play Regional Semifinals this evening, with championship games Wednesday and then a long weekend before Quarterfinals roll us toward the Finals at Calvin College.
Below are three Regionals in each division that especially caught my attention, plus some of the District Finals that popped off the page over the weekend.
Countdown to Calvin is powered by MI Student Aid and based on results and schedules posted for each school at MHSAA.com. To offer corrections or fill in scores we’re missing, email me at [email protected].
Week in Review
The countdown of last week’s five most intriguing results:
1. Haslett 44, Williamston 42 – After finishing second in the Capital Area Activities Conference Red to Williamston with losses of 19 and 13 points, Haslett handed the Hornets their first defeat since Dec. 17 to claim a Division 2 District title.
2. Pontiac Notre Dame Prep 71, Detroit Country Day 59 – The Fighting Irish remain one game below .500 this season, but following up an upset of Wixom St. Catherine with this Division 2 victory over the reigning Class B champion is what they’ll remember most about this season.
3. Kalamazoo Christian 42, Gobles 38 – Not only was Gobles undefeated entering this Division 3 District Final, but it had played just three single-digit games all season.
4. East Kentwood 57, East Grand Rapids 54 – The Ottawa-Kent Conference Red champion Falcons held on in Division 1 to edge the winners of the O-K Gold.
5. Brown City 41, Sandusky 31 – Three teams tied for first in the Greater Thumb Conference East, but only Brown City remains after winning this Division 3 District Final matchup of two of those champs.
Regionals at a Glance
These could be among our most competitive brackets. Host sites are in bold:
DIVISION 1
Caledonia
Coldwater (21-1) vs. East Lansing (20-2), Portage Central (16-4) vs. DeWitt (21-2)
This has been a historic season for Interstate 8 Athletic Conference champion Coldwater, as the Cardinals won their first league title since 1992 and are just a four-point loss to another District champ, Ann Arbor Pioneer, from a perfect record. But if Coldwater is to also win its first Regional title since 1991, it will have to break up the anticipated collision of CAAC Blue co-champs East Lansing and DeWitt. The Trojans – last year’s Class A runners-up – won the first meeting between the rivals, lost the second, and their only other defeat was by two points to Saginaw Heritage in a rematch of last year’s title game. DeWitt’s only other defeat came 24 hours after beating East Lansing, by four points to St. Johns. The Panthers, of course, can’t look ahead – Portage Central won the Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference West, although it may become important to note that the Mustangs fell to Coldwater by 38 in their regular-season finale.
Mount Pleasant
Marquette (20-3) vs. Midland Dow (22-1), Saginaw Heritage (20-2) vs. Flint Carman-Ainsworth (18-5)
Saginaw Valley League Red rivals Midland Dow and Saginaw Heritage may get a rematch, after Dow won their lone regular-season meeting by four on Feb. 1 on Heritage’s home floor. That game ended up deciding the league title. But to get another chance at the Chargers, the Hawks first must defeat another league champion – SVL Blue winner Carman-Ainsworth – after also defeating the Cavaliers by seven on Jan. 9. Dow also has another league champ up first: Marquette won the Great Northern Upper Peninsula Conference, with only a two-point loss to Brighton and defeats to one-loss Ishpeming Westwood and Negaunee helping to make for a strong resume.
Southfield Arts & Technology
Grosse Pointe North (19-3) vs. Bloomfield Hills Marian (21-1), Southfield Arts & Technology (20-1) vs. Warren Cousino (15-8)
Three more league champions highlight this bracket. Macomb Area Conference Red winner Grosse Pointe North and Detroit Catholic League Central and A-B champ Marian face off in a rematch from early December, when the Mustangs won by 13. Marian’s only loss this season was the Division 2 favorite Detroit Edison by six points. Southfield A&T doubled up Detroit Public School League Tournament champion Detroit Mumford in their District Final last week and is a two-point loss to Heritage from a perfect run. This bracket really presents an opportunity for the MAC Red to show again why it’s considered one of the toughest leagues in the state after all six teams finished at least 12-9 this winter. North’s only other losses were to Division 2 powers Harper Woods Chandler Park and Detroit Country Day, and third-place Cousino fell by only three to Marian in both teams’ season opener.
DIVISION 2
Adrian
Carlton Airport (21-1) vs. Dearborn Divine Child (13-9), Chelsea (22-1) vs. River Rouge (12-6)
Airport has won 20 straight games since falling to 2018 Class D champ Adrian Lenawee Christian on Dec. 13, and is playing for its first Regional title. But Divine Child is a dangerous opponent with wins in seven of its last nine games and both losses during that string to Marian. Similarly, Chelsea is playing for its first Regional title as well, and with just a two-point loss to Pioneer on Feb. 28 keeping it from perfection so far. But the Bulldogs first face another league champion in River Rouge, which prepped for the Michigan Metro Athletic Conference Blue schedule by taking on a number of the state’s best from Division 1. The Panthers opened this winter 2-5 against that strong competition, but its only loss since Jan. 8 came nonleague to Carman-Ainsworth.
Coloma
Benton Harbor (4-15) vs. Plainwell (15-6), Hamilton (22-0) vs. Edwardsburg (23-0)
Of course the Hamilton/Edwardsburg matchup tonight is one of the state’s biggest regardless of division. Hamilton won its first Regional title in girls basketball last season, and Edwardsburg is hoping to accomplish the same for its program this week. The Ottawa-Kent Conference Green-winning Hawkeyes haven’t had a single-digit game since Jan. 11. While Edwardsburg won the Wolverine Conference South, Plainwell was second in the North and defeated a league champion in Comstock on Friday to move on to this week. Benton Harbor was one of the statewide surprises of the District round. The Tigers didn’t earn their second win this season until Feb. 19, but have now won three of their last five games and clinched the District title with two victories by a combined six points.
Mount Morris
Freeland (20-2) vs. Corunna (20-2), Stanton Central Montcalm (22-0) vs. Frankenmuth (14-7)
Three more league champs help fill this Regional. Freeland from the Tri-Valley Conference Central and Corunna from the Genesee Area Conference Red both are returnees to Regionals, Freeland making it to the Class B Quarterfinals a year ago. The Falcons’ only losses this winter were to Division 1 contenders Dow and Heritage, while Corunna has bounced back from mid-winter defeats to Fowlerville and Division 3 power Flint Hamady. Central Montcalm is coming off its second straight perfect regular season and Central State Activities Association Gold title, and is seeking its first Regional title. Frankenmuth is the lone non-league champ in this bracket, having finished third in the TVC East. But the Eagles have won nine of their last 12.
DIVISION 3
McBain
Houghton Lake (21-0) vs. Hart (12-10), Oscoda (22-0) vs. Lake City (19-2)
The winner of this bracket will be celebrating something not accomplished in a long time – or ever. A pair of undefeated teams might seem destined to meet in the Regional Final – Oscoda, from the North Star League Big Dipper, is seeking its first Regional title and Jack Pine Conference champ Houghton Lake its first since 1992. But Lake City is only a pair of three-point losses to Highland Conference champion Manton from also being perfect, and the Trojans are seeking their first Regional title since 1976. Hart is also seeking its first since 1992 and on a roll after navigating a number of much larger and successful opponents in the West Michigan Conference.
Michigan Center
Springport (18-3) vs. Michigan Center (19-3), Adrian Madison (21-1) vs. Laingsburg (19-4)
Michigan Center is riding high after avenging losses to Manchester on Wednesday and then Cascades Conference champion Grass Lake with a 49-44 overtime win Friday to clinch last week’s District. The Cardinals made the Class B Semifinals a year ago and can continue to put that tournament experience to work against Big 8 Conference champ Springport, although the Spartans have won 17 of their last 18 since starting 0-2. Adrian Madison slipped up against Manchester two weeks ago but otherwise won the Tri-County Conference by four games and has nearly doubled up last season’s 11 wins. Laingsburg provides an interesting wild card to this bracket – the Wolfpack don’t get much attention coming from the same Central Michigan Athletic Conference as Division 3 favorite Pewamo-Westphalia. But aside from two losses to the Pirates, Laingsburg hasn’t fallen since the first week of this season.
Sault Ste. Marie
Iron River West Iron County (19-2) vs. Ishpeming Westwood (22-1), Charlevoix (18-2) vs. Elk Rapids (17-5)
The Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper and Iron champs, respectively, face off on the Upper Peninsula side of this bracket. Westwood has been making good on high aspirations all season and is now playing for its first Regional title since 2008. The Patriots’ only loss came to Negaunee, and they then avenged it twice on the way to league and District titles. Westwood beat West Iron by 15 all the back on Dec. 11, and the Wykons haven’t lost since on the way to also winning a league title. They’re seeking their first regional title since 1986. From the other side of the Bridge, Charlevoix is playing for its first Regional title since 2004 after also winning its league and seeing junior Elise Stuck become the program’s all-time leading scorer. Charlevoix beat Elk Rapids twice on the way to winning their Lake Michigan Conference. But the Elks upset Manton on the way to winning last week’s District and would love to add a first Regional title since 1993.
DIVISION 4
Lansing Christian
Hillsdale Academy (14-8) vs. Portland St. Patrick (17-6), Athens (18-4) vs. Adrian Lenawee Christian (21-2)
The reigning Class D champ Cougars, led by sophomore standout Bree Salenbien, are a comfortable favorite this week with losses to only Division 3 powers Grass Lake and Michigan Center this winter. But Athens is surging. The Indians began last week’s District by avenging an opening night loss to Battle Creek Calhoun Christian, and then got past rival Bellevue in their District Final after losing twice to the Broncos during the regular season. On the other side, Hillsdale Academy has flipped last season’s 7-14 finish and won 10 of its last 13 games. And quite quietly, Portland St. Patrick followed up Division 3 District winners P-W and Laingsburg in the CMAC to tie for third in that league under six-time Class D champion coach Al Schrauben.
Mendon
Mendon (17-3) vs. Martin (18-3), Fruitport Calvary Christian (18-5) vs. St. Joseph Michigan Lutheran (18-2)
Calvary Christian is seeking its first Regional title and Martin its first since 1995 in what could be one of the most unpredictable brackets in any division. Martin and Mendon both finished second in their leagues to Division 3 teams, and all six of their combined losses were to Division 3 opponents. Calvary Christian’s losses all were to Division 3 teams as well as the Eagles went undefeated in the Alliance League. Mendon last won a Regional title in 2014, but Michigan Lutheran has the most postseason experience of the quartet making the Quarterfinals in 2017 and the Regional Semifinals a year ago. The Titans enter as Berrien-Cass-St. Joseph White champs and coming off avenging one of their two defeats by beating Three Oaks River Valley in the District Final.
Pellston
St. Ignace (23-0) vs. Hillman (12-11), Newberry (12-10) vs. Mackinaw City (22-1)
The Saints are a Division 4 favorite with wins over Detroit Mumford, Goodrich and Reese augmenting the usual run through league and area opponents. But on the other side of Mackinac Bridge is a hopeful Comets team seeking its first Regional title and with only a Dec. 10 loss to Brimley keeping them from perfection so far. St. Ignace and Mackinaw City wouldn’t meet until Wednesday, though, and their Regional Semifinal opponents have the needed momentum to make tonight challenging. Hillman opened this season with six straight losses and nine in its first 12 games, but the Tigers bounced back to go 9-2 over their last 11 games. Newberry survived a string of seven losses in nine games through January and February to win its last five and get past Brimley by a point in last week’s District Final.
Second Half’s weekly “Countdown to Calvin” reports are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Student Financial Services Bureau located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information, including various student financial assistance programs to help make college more affordable for Michigan students. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 savings programs (MET/MESP) and eight additional aid programs within its Student Scholarships and Grants division. Click for more information and connect with MI Student Aid on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.
PHOTO: Marquette's Kaeleigh Talbacka drives to the basket as Traverse City West's Tacey Looze (22) stands her ground. (Photo by Cara Kamps.)
Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.