Countdown to Calvin: Girls Quarterfinal Preview
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
March 19, 2019
The clock is ticking as the Countdown to Calvin will be over by the time this evening is done.
All 16 Girls Basketball Quarterfinals will played at sites all over the state tonight, with winners advancing to Van Noord Arena and Semifinals beginning Thursday in Divisions 3 and 4.
Our final “Countdown to Calvin” report of 2018-19 – powered by MI Student Aid – takes a glance at all 16 Quarterfinals, which tip off at 7 p.m. unless noted. All Quarterfinals will be broadcast and viewable with subscription on MHSAA.tv. Come back Wednesday night for a more in-depth look at our 16 finalists as they head into this weekend.
DIVISION 1
Saginaw Heritage (22-2) vs. Hartland (22-3) at Grand Blanc
Reigning Class A champion Heritage avenged a league title-deciding loss to Midland Dow with a 15-point win in the Regional Final, and a heralded group of seniors – Miss Basketball Award runner-up Moira Joiner (18.8 points per game), Shine Strickland-Gills (12.8) and Mallory McCartney (10.5) – are leading the repeat charge. Hartland is the power on the rise – the Eagles don’t have a senior starter. Junior Whitney Sollom (10.9 ppg, 8.6 rebounds per game) leads a balanced attack. Heritage won their Dec. 11 meeting 55-35.
Temperance Bedford (20-5) vs. Wayne Memorial (23-2) at West Bloomfield, 5 p.m.
There may not be a more balanced team left in the playoffs than Bedford, as no player averages more than 7.8 ppg and the two leading scorers don’t even start. The team’s only in-state losses this season came by two to 19-win Ann Arbor Pioneer – avenged by a six-point victory – and by one to 15-win Saline, avenged by 10 points in the rematch. Wayne is back after making the Semifinals a year ago, and its only losses this season were both to Division 2 favorite Detroit Edison. Senior guard Jeanae Terry, a University of Illinois recruit, leads an experienced group looking to take the final steps.
Southfield Arts & Technology (22-1) vs. St. Clair Shores Lakeview (19-5) at West Bloomfield
Only an early two-point loss to Heritage has kept Southfield A&T from a perfect run so far. The Warriors, semifinalists two years ago, boast a dangerous 1-2 punch of senior Alexis Johnson (19.2 ppg) and junior Cheyenne McEvans (17.1 ppg). Lakeview can win 20 games for the third straight season and is coming off its first Regional championship in this sport. The Huskies avenged one of their defeats in downing Fraser in the District Final.
Muskegon (20-4) vs. DeWitt (23-2) at Kalamazoo Loy Norrix
The Big Reds are repeat Regional champions and looking to take the next step as Miss Basketball finalist Alyza Winston (24.5 ppg) finishes her high school career. Muskegon has won 16 straight on the court and avenged its opening-night loss to East Kentwood in the Regional Semifinal. DeWitt has won at least 21 games the last three seasons and four of the last five, breaking through for its first Regional title since finishing Class A runner-up in 2015. Senior Annie McIntosh (14.8 ppg) has helped set pace for the Panthers, who have two losses by a combined eight points to rivals East Lansing and St. Johns – and avenged both.
DIVISION 2
Cadillac (21-3) vs. Freeland (22-2) at Mount Pleasant
Freeland is coming off its third straight Regional title to set up this rematch of a 2017 Quarterfinal won by the Falcons. Junior Kadyn Blanchard (14.9 ppg) leads three players scoring in double figures for a team that has won 18 straight and lost only to Division 1 Heritage and Dow. Cadillac won the Big North Conference title by a wide margin on the way to its second Regional title. Sophomore guard Molly Anderson (16 ppg) also leads three scoring in double digits.
Grand Rapids South Christian (15-9) vs. Hamilton (24-0) at Hope College
Somewhat quietly, Hamilton is a combined 71-6 over the last three seasons with two straight Regional titles. The Hawkeyes will try to follow last year’s first-ever Quarterfinal berth with a first trip to the Semifinals, and beat South Christian 62-42 in their season opener. Sophomore 6-foot-2 center AJ Ediger leads at 20.2 ppg. The Sailors have rebounded from a 2-5 start and upset Muskegon Oakridge in the Regional Final. Senior guard Sydney Cleary (12.3 ppg) leads a balanced lineup.
Haslett (18-6) vs. Chelsea (24-1) at Fowlerville
Chelsea has reached the Quarterfinals for the first time, its only loss by two to Division 1 Ann Arbor Pioneer in the regular-season finale. Haslett has won 13 of its last 15 and avenged two losses to Williamston and one to Jackson Northwest by eliminating both during the postseason. Both teams have one player scoring in double digits – for Chelsea, senior guard Abigale Fullerton leads at 11.6 ppg, while senior guard Ella McKinney paces Haslett at 13.7 ppg.
Detroit Edison (24-1) vs. Goodrich (14-10) at St. Clair County Community College
Edison is the reigning Class C champion and features newly-honored Miss Basketball winner Rickea Jackson (22.1 ppg, 8.1 rpg). Junior Gabrielle Elliott (17.4 ppg) and sophomore Damiya Hagemann (14 ppg, 8.1 apg) would star for most other teams in the state. Edison’s only loss came to Ohio power Columbus Africentric, by five. Goodrich won its sixth Regional title this decade after entering the postseason .500. Junior guard Maddie Voelker (24.2 ppg) leads a rising team with no seniors.
DIVISION 3
Ishpeming Westwood (24-1) vs. Lake City (21-2) at Gaylord
Westwood is making its first Quarterfinal appearance since 2008; Lake City is making its first since 1976. The Patriots’ only loss came to rival Negaunee and has been avenged twice. Junior guards Madelyn Koski (15.8 ppg) and Tessa Leece (15.2) make up a strong backcourt. After finishing second to Manton in the Highland Conference, Lake City hasn’t had a playoff game closer than 14 points. Junior forward Rylie Bisballe (16.8 ppg) leads three averaging double-digit scoring.
Royal Oak Shrine (20-5) vs. Flint Hamady (19-5) at Lapeer, 6 p.m.
Hamady is back for its seventh Quarterfinal this decade after missing the final week last season. All of the Hawks’ losses were to Division 1 and 2 teams, including one to Goodrich (noted above), and they handed Hemlock its only loss this season in winning the Regional Final. Shrine is making its first Quarterfinal appearance since 1995 after winning league regular-season and tournament titles and beating two league champs in last week’s Regional. Senior guard Grace Murray leads at 15 ppg.
Adrian Madison (23-1) vs. Ypsilanti Arbor Prep (18-6) at Tecumseh
Madison is riding high from its first Regional championship, with only a four-point loss to 15-win Manchester keeping it from perfection so far this winter. Center Laura Teunion-Smith (13 ppg, 12 rpg) is one of four senior starters who have contributed to this historic run. Arbor Prep has made six straight Quarterfinals and is seeking to make its fifth straight Semifinal. Freshman Mya Petticord has stepped in big this winter at 19.3 ppg and 3.3 assists per game.
Pewamo-Westphalia (24-1) vs. Niles Brandywine (23-2) at Middleville Thornapple Kellogg
The Pirates, the 2017 Class C runners-up and 2018 semifinalists, also have lost only to Edison this season as they seek their first championship. Junior forward Hannah Spitzley and junior guard Ellie Droste are the leading scorers, both at 13.9 ppg. Brandywine won its seventh Regional title this decade and first since 2016, with losses only to Division 2 Comstock. Junior guard Zakiyyah Abdullah leads at 14.1 ppg.
DIVISION 4
Baraga (21-3) vs. St. Ignace (25-0) at Escanaba
St. Ignace has made the Quarterfinals every season this decade and is seeking to return to the Semifinals for the first time since 2015. Senior 6-foot forward Emily Coveyou scores 22.9 points and grabs 10.2 rebounds per game for a team that has won all five of its postseason matchups by at least 42 points. Baraga steps in coming off its first Regional title since 1993 and with a win over 2018 Class D runner-up Chassell along the way. Five of the team’s seven players are underclassmen, with sophomore Rylie Koskinen (11.2 ppg) and senior Martina Jahfetson (11 ppg) leading the way.
Clarkston Everest Collegiate (14-9) vs. Kingston (23-2) at Burton Bendle, 6 p.m.
Kingston is playing in its fourth Quarterfinal in five seasons and again seeking to make the Semifinals for the first time. Senior Lily Lyons (11.2 ppg) is the lead scorer for a team that has fallen only to Division 1 Utica Eisenhower and Oxford. Everest Collegiate also is seeking its first Semifinal berth and has made it this far once before, in 2014. The Mountaineers are paced by 6-0 senior center Katelyn Allen (15 ppg, 11.1 rpg).
Gaylord St. Mary (22-2) vs. Fowler (16-7) at Clare
After winning its fifth Regional title this decade, St. Mary is looking to reach the Semifinals for the first time since 2002. The Snowbirds’ only losses were to Division 2 Escanaba and Division 3 Traverse City St. Francis. Senior guard Livee Jeffers leads at 14.4 ppg. Fowler is in its first Quarterfinal and seeking its first Semifinal both since finishing Class D runner-up in 1999. The Eagles, playing in the same league as Pewamo-Westphalia among a group of strong teams from larger schools, are paced by freshman guard Mia Riley (11.7 ppg) and sophomore guard Sarah Veale (11.3).
Fruitport Calvary Christian (20-5) vs. Adrian Lenawee Christian (23-2) at Richland Gull Lake
Calvary Christian has built on seven straight league and six straight District titles with its first Regional championship. Junior 6-0 guard Kelsey Richards leads three in double figures averaging 20.5 ppg. Calvary now must face reigning Class D champion Lenawee Christian, led again by 6-2 sophomore forward Bree Salenbien (23.6 ppg, 9.0 rpg) and junior guard Dani Salenbien (13.6 ppg).
Second Half’s weekly “Countdown to Calvin” reports are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Student Financial Services Bureau located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information, including various student financial assistance programs to help make college more affordable for Michigan students. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 savings programs (MET/MESP) and eight additional aid programs within its Student Scholarships and Grants division. Click for more information and connect with MI Student Aid on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.
PHOTO: Kingston's Hannah James goes to the basket against Akron-Fairgrove in a Division 4 District Semifinal win. (Click for more from Varsity Monthly.)
Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.