Breslin Bound: Girls Regional Preview
March 10, 2020
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Coaches always say at this point in the MHSAA Tournament that every team still playing has to be good, if not dangerous no matter what its W-L record shows.
And the last three months have boiled down to a mix of absolutely colossal and in some places unexpected matchups as we pull a week closer to championship time at Michigan State.
The toughest part of this week's "Breslin Bound" girls report was picking just five District Finals to highlight from a variety of great finishes last week. But below are a glance at some of the best, followed by Regionals of particular intrigue.
“Breslin Bound” is powered by MI Student Aid and based on results and schedules posted for each school at MHSAA.com. Send corrections or missing scores to [email protected]. Rankings below are by Michigan Power Rating (MPR).
Week in Review
The countdown of last week’s five most intriguing results:
1. Macomb Dakota 46, Port Huron 29 – The Cougars (19-4) gave Port Huron one of its closest games of the regular season in a four-point Feb. 18 loss, then handed the Big Reds (21-1) their only defeat in this Division 1 District Final.
2. Manton 26, Lake City 17 – After falling twice by double digits to champion Lake City (20-2) in Highland Conference play, Manton (21-2) got past the rival Trojans – who had made the Division 3 Semifinals a year ago.
3. Freeland 64, Bay City John Glenn 38 – The Falcons (19-4) opened this season 2-3, with a two-point loss to John Glenn (18-5) on Dec. 18, but avenged it in a big way to move on Division 2.
4. Cadillac 35, Big Rapids 31 – The Vikings (22-1) won a Division 2 matchup of league champions, handing Big Rapids (21-2) just its second defeat of the season.
5. Haslett 39, Williamston 37 – These two Division 2 contenders had tied for the Capital Area Activities Conference Red title and split during the regular season, but Haslett (16-7) took the final upper hand after losing to Williamston (18-5) by a point in their previous most recent meeting.
Regionals at a Glance
These could be among our most competitive brackets. Host sites are in bold:
DIVISION 1
Holland West Ottawa
East Grand Rapids (21-2) vs. Muskegon Reeths-Puffer (21-2), Rockford (16-6) vs. Hudsonville (21-1)
West Michigan’s elite have poured into this Regional. Ottawa-Kent Conference Gold champion EGR advanced with a 56-53 District Final win over East Kentwood, which shared the O-K Red championship. The other Red co-champ Hudsonville also earned a big win during District week, handing Byron Center just its second loss on the way to advancing. The Eagles are plenty familiar with, and will be careful against Rockford after beating them twice during the regular season – but by just a point in overtime and then four in the rematch. Reeths-Puffer and East Grand Rapids will meet for the first time this season, and the Rockets are on a two-month surge. They’ve won 13 straight – including avenging both of their defeats – while clinching the O-K Black championship.
Southfield Arts & Technology
Bloomfield Hills Marian (18-5) vs. Grosse Pointe North (16-6), Farmington Hills Mercy (20-3) vs. Detroit Renaissance (21-2)
This Regional has some serious Detroit-area power and should draw statewide interest as well as Renaissance (No. 2), Marian (No. 8) and Mercy (No. 10) all were among the final top 10 in Division 1 regular-season MPR. Tonight’s second semifinal between Mercy and Renaissance is a rematch of the Operation Friendship game won by Renaissance 44-32 on Feb. 27. If Mercy wins the rematch, it may again see Marian, and won two of three against the Mustangs during the regular season as they shared the Detroit Catholic League Central championship and Mercy won the league tournament. But Marian will hardly stroll into Thursday’s final – Grosse Pointe North has won 10 of its last 12 with a pair of victories over Macomb Area Conference Red champion and No. 13 Grosse Pointe South after splitting with South during league play.
Walled Lake Western
West Bloomfield (17-6) vs. Hartland (22-1), Clarkston (19-4) vs. Walled Lake Western (19-4)
Hartland entered the postseason No. 6 in Division 1 and has been an anticipated championship contender all season. But the Eagles – winners of the Kensington Lakes Activities Association West and overall titles – may have to defeat two more league champions to reach the season’s final week. West Bloomfield shared the Oakland Activities Association Red title and entered the postseason No. 18 in Division 1, while Walled Lake Western clinched the Lakes Valley Conference title. Clarkston is in this mix as well and with good reason. The Wolves were third in the OAA Red, just a game out of joining the title share with West Bloomfield and Southfield Arts & Technology, and previously defeated tonight’s opponent Western by 10 in their season opener.
DIVISION 2
Gaylord
Escanaba (13-7) vs. Sault Ste. Marie (20-1), Cadillac (22-1) vs. Standish-Sterling (19-3)
This Regional includes four teams that finished among the top 20 in Division 2 MPR at the end of the regular season, led by No. 6 Sault Ste. Marie with its lone loss Dec. 20 to St. Ignace. That defeat was avenged Feb. 6, and the Blue Devils also own a 63-56 win over Escanaba from way back on Dec. 13 (their scheduled rematch Feb. 28 was canceled). The No. 20 Eskymos earned a one-point overtime win over Houghton and a four-point victory over Gladstone last week to claim their District title, and have won six of their last eight as the head into Regional play for the first time in at least a decade. On the other side of the bracket, No. 16 Standish-Sterling finished second in the Tri-Valley Conference East but took out a league champion – Clare from the Jack Pine Conference – to win last week’s District. Now comes Big North Conference champion and No. 14 Cadillac in a rematch of last season’s Regional Semifinal – a 61-39 Vikings win on the way to eventually reaching the Quarterfinals.
Goodrich
Marine City (18-4) vs. Lake Fenton (17-6), Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook Kingswood (11-10) vs. Imlay City (20-3)
Whichever team emerges from this bracket will have accomplished a historic program achievement. Cranbrook and Imlay City are playing this week for their first Regional title, while Marine City is hoping for its first since 1976 and Lake Fenton its first since 1993. Marine City in the MAC Gold and Imlay City in the Blue Water Area Conference are league champions, and Lake Fenton finished second to Goodrich in the Flint Metro League Stars but then defeated the Martians in last week’s District Final. Cranbrook has been on a nice streak as well after a rough start; the Cranes have won seven of their last 10. Imlay City has won 16 of its last 17, and avenged the lone loss during that run two games later in a District Semifinal. Marine City opened 13-1 and then bounced back last week from a bumpy end to the regular season.
Owosso
Freeland (19-4) vs. Chesaning (19-4), Portland (20-3) vs. Frankenmuth (18-5)
Freeland (No. 7), Frankenmuth (No. 10) and Portland (No. 12) have been climbed among the Division 2 elite, and Chesaning belongs in the conversation with its second-place showing in the Mid-Michigan Activities Conference to Division 3 contender Byron. Chesaning takes on a Falcons team with only two losses against Division 2 opponents and 17 wins over their last 18 games – Freeland also clinched the TVC East title ahead of Standish-Sterling (above) and Frankenmuth. The Eagles did earn a win over Chesaning during the regular season but were swept by Freeland – although they’ll be eager for another rematch after falling to the Falcons by only two and four points in their two meetings, respectively. The Raiders, however, may not allow that to happen as they look to add to their CAAC White and District titles, the former against a league group including four teams that finished with at least 13 wins.
DIVISION 3
Morley Stanwood
Kent City (22-1) vs. Pewamo-Westphalia (21-2), Muskegon Western Michigan Christian (17-6) vs. Ithaca (21-1)
Reigning Division 3 champion P-W ended this regular season No. 1 in Division 3 MPR and has won 17 straight, but will face a Kent City team tonight that surely hasn’t forgotten about last year’s 35-33 Regional Semifinal loss to the Pirates. Both teams are led by mostly the same groups of standouts as a year ago, P-W by a pair of 1,000-point career scorers and Kent City with a host of long-distance shooters who have continued to post record-book 3-point performances. But whichever team wins tonight can’t think all is won. WMC finished second in the Lakes 8 Athletic Conference to Division 2 Ludington and has won 15 of its last 17 games. And Ithaca was runner-up in the TVC West to Hemlock (see above) with their only losses of the season a pair against the Huskies.
Sault Ste. Marie
Calumet (19-3) vs. Ishpeming Westwood (21-2), Charlevoix (18-5) vs. Oscoda (20-3)
Calumet (No. 9), Westwood (No. 14) and Charlevoix (No. 18) all finished among the top 20 in Division 3 MPR, and Oscoda’ only regular-season losses were to Division 2 teams before going on a 14-game winning streak. The Owls open tonight against one of the most intriguing opponents of the entire playoffs. Charlevoix won the Lake Michigan Conference and is riding a streak of 15 victories in 16 games despite playing the regular season without University of Michigan recruit Elise Stuck – who was thought to be lost for the winter with an injury but came back for the playoffs. On the other side of the bracket, Calumet is a rough two weeks from a perfect record – the Copper Kings lost three in a row from Jan. 2-16, including 59-45 to Westwood, but otherwise are undefeated. They won the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference West, and Westwood won the East and is playing for its second-straight Regional title after defeating Charlevoix 47-29 in last year’s championship game for this round.
Unionville-Sebewaing
Flint Hamady (20-2) vs. Bad Axe (11-11), Sandusky (19-4) vs. Hemlock (20-2)
Hamady is playing for its fifth Regional title in six seasons and second straight after winning the Genesee Area Conference title and losing only to Division 1 Davison and Division 2 Flint Kearsley during the regular season. The Hawks – last season’s Division 3 runners-up – first face Bad Axe, one of the best stories of last week statewide after entering the postseason two wins under .500 and winning its first District title reportedly since 1980. The other side of the bracket features a pair of teams also a little more familiar with this stage in the tournament. Hemlock, the TVC West champion, is seeking its second Regional title in three seasons. Sandusky finished second in the Greater Thumb Conference East behind only one-loss Ubly and is back playing in a Regional for the fifth time over the last six seasons after missing out a year ago.
DIVISION 4
Kingsford
Baraga (20-3) vs. Munising (8-13), L’Anse (19-4) vs. Carney-Nadeau (20-4)
Baraga won its first Regional title last season since 1992 and is aiming to repeat after winning the championship in the Copper Mountain Conference’s Copper Country division – although the Vikings did split nonleague with L’Anse, winning the first meeting by 16 but falling in the second by seven. They also have to be careful with Munising, which upset 15-win Rock Mid Peninsula last week on the way to claiming its District title. Carney-Nadeau similarly is surging, but with a different back story. The Wolves finished second in the Skyline Central Conference small-school division to Felch North Dickinson, but then beat North Dickinson by 11 in the District Final a week after losing to the Nordics by 12. And that brings us back to L’Anse, which has a similar story to C-N. The Purple Hornets came in second in the CMC’s Porcupine Mountain division, but downed league champ Ewen-Trout Creek 39-34 in their District Final.
Martin
Martin (21-1) vs. Colon (12-10), Fruitport Calvary Christian (18-3) vs. St. Joseph Michigan Lutheran (21-1)
On one side of this bracket are two teams that have been hoping to take the next step. On the other side, the contenders have done so recently and look capable of going farther if they can emerge from this strong field. Martin is playing for its first Regional title since 1995, and Colon its first since 1994. The No. 12 Clippers’ only loss was to Division 3 Gobles as it played mostly larger schools this season and won the Southwestern Athletic Conference Lakeshore ahead of the runner-up Tigers. Colon finished second in the Southern Central Athletic Association West and has won eight of its last nine games after a rough start. Calvary Christian finally broke through for its first Regional title last winter and prepped for another tournament run with a number of nonleague games against bigger opponents – two of its losses came to Division 3 teams, and the Eagles have won 13 of their last 14 games. Michigan Lutheran’s most recent Regional title was in 2017, and they are in the mix again after winning the Berrien-Cass-St. Joseph Conference White title and avenging that lone loss to league runner-up New Buffalo with a 54-27 win in the District Final.
Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart
Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart (21-2) vs. Ubly (22-1, Mio (10-13) vs. Saginaw Nouvel (18-5)
This is familiar territory for the host Irish, who will be playing for their sixth Regional title in eight seasons although they fell short of this round a year ago. Sacred Heart stormed back to open this season with 16 straight wins and clinch the Mid-State Activities Conference title – and with their only losses to Division 3 opponents. No. 8 Ubly, meanwhile, lost only to Division 2 Caro in December and has won 18 straight – with its best of the bunch a 42-31 victory versus Kingston in the District Final that ended the Cardinals’ season at 20-2. Mio might be considered a surprise but has won six of its last eight games. Nouvel also emerged from a TVC West including Hemlock and Ithaca, with three of its five losses to those teams. But the Panthers handed Hemlock its only league defeat.
Second Half’s weekly “Breslin Bound” reports are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Office of Postsecondary Financial Planning located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 college savings programs (MET/MESP), as well as scholarship and grant programs that help make college Accessible, Affordable and Attainable for you. Connect with MI Student Aid at www.michigan.gov/mistudentaid and find more information on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.
PHOTO: Lake Fenton finished second to Goodrich in league play this winter, but defeated the Martians in last week’s Division 2 District Final. (Photo by Terry Lyons.)
Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.