Breslin Bound: Girls Quarterfinal Preview
March 16, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Five teams in Tuesday's Quarterfinals have reached the final week of the MHSAA girls basketball season for the first time.
But the celebrations are just getting started.
See below for a glance at all 16 Quarterfinal games to determine which teams advance to this weekend's final rounds at Michigan State University's Breslin Center. All quarters tip off at 7 p.m. unless noted.
Class A
DeWitt (23-1) vs. Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central (17-8) at Charlotte
Four seniors starters have guided DeWitt to its first Quarterfinal since 2009 in Class B. Despite having no player taller than 5-foot-10, the Panthers are the tough matchup because of their versatility and balance led by senior guard Claudia Reid (10.3 points, 6.5 assists per game) and senior forward Abby Nakfoor (12 ppg, five rebounds per game). Forest Hills Central has won its first Regional title in its first season under former East Grand Rapids star Kelvin Grady. Senior center Sophia Sanfilipo will stand the tallest in this game at 5-11 and averages 13.1 points and nine rebounds per game.
Hartland (18-6) vs. Saginaw Heritage (21-3) at Flint Carman-Ainsworth
Hartland rebounded from three losses over its final five regular-season games to win its first Regional championship as well. Sophomore forward Lexey Tobel (12.1 ppg) leads five players averaging at least five points per game. Heritage will play in its second Quarterfinal in three seasons to make its first Semifinal since 2002, when it won Class A. The Hawks might be even more balanced than Hartland – six players average at least six points per game, but not score 10.
Bloomfield Hills Marian (23-1) vs. Waterford Kettering (23-1) at St. Clair Shores Lake Shore
The reigning Class A champion, Marian hasn’t lost to an in-state opponent since last season’s Detroit Catholic League Final; its only loss this season was the Chicago Whitney Young by four Jan 17. The Mustangs beat four teams still alive this week. Kettering has won two Regional titles in four seasons and at least 20 games three of the four, and probably couldn’t imagine a more impressive way to break through to the Semifinals for the first time since 2000. Senior forward Lauren Tewes leads five players scoring at least eight points per game, with 10.6 ppg.
Romulus (18-5) vs. Detroit Martin Luther King (23-1) at Dearborn Fordson
The Romulus girls have caught up to the powerhouse boys program with Regional titles the last two seasons, and they did so this time despite falling in three or their final four regular-season games. The team has eight seniors, and guard Jayla Nichols leads at 12.1 ppg. It may be tough to believe, but King hasn’t made the Semifinals since its last title run in 2006. The Crusaders are always in the mix and lost this season only to Marian, by a point, in the regular-season finale. Guard Janae Williams leads a strong group that includes six seniors.
Class B
Benton Harbor (19-5) vs. Flat Rock (21-3) at Eaton Rapids
The Tigers have improved their win total every season of five under coach Lisa Harvey-Gondrezick and are led by her daughters, Miss Basketball finalist and Michigan State University recruit Kalabrya (17.9 points, 8.1 assists per game) and junior forward Kysre (27.5 points, 10.6 rebounds per game). Flat Rock also has a parent/daughters combination with coach Marc Villemure, 6-foot-1 senior guard Paige (14.6 points, 3.8 blocks per game) and 6-1 junior forward Morgan (13.3 points, 6.5 rebounds per game). They helped the team to its first Regional title.
Haslett (20-5) vs. Grand Rapids Catholic Central (23-2) at Wayland
The Vikings have pointed toward this season after most of the same group made it to the Class A Regional Finals last season. Four Haslett girls score in double digits led by senior forward Makenna Ott, who missed nine games through the middle of the season with an injury but brings 13.2 points per game to the lineup – Haslett lost only once with her this winter. GRCC has been surging with 13 straight wins since falling to rival Wayland, which Haslett beat in the Regional Final (and GRCC beat in their second meeting by 22 points). The Cougars have won District titles all three of coach Trevor Hinshaw’s seasons and are returning to the final week for the first time since 2012.
Goodrich (24-1) vs. Manistee (23-1) at Mount Pleasant
Goodrich just missed the Quarterfinals last season but is back for the fifth time in six and after winning back-to-back Class B titles in 2012 and 2013. Senior Tania Davis (19.1 ppg) and junior Alexis Sevillian (15.6 ppg) make up one of the strongest backcourts in the state; Davis was named Miss Basketball on Monday. Manistee is an incredible 45-2 over the last two seasons and in its first Quarterfinal since 1994. It avenged its lone loss, to Traverse City West, in a rematch Feb. 20.
Dearborn Divine Child (20-5) vs. Detroit Country Day (19-4) at Marysville
Subtract three losses to reigning Class A champion Bloomfield Hills Marian, and Divine Child’s record looks even better – Dearborn Heights Robichaud (17-3) was the only postseason opponent of five to come within 15 points of the Falcons, who are led by senior guard Riley Blair (15.5 ppg). Country Day started this season with 11 straight wins before losing four of its next six – but against some of the best teams in Class A and a Class C favorite. The Yellowjackets came back to beat Haslett during the final week of the regular season and haven’t been challenged during the MHSAA tournament as they pursue their first championship since 2009.
Class C
Tawas (21-4) vs. Calumet (21-2) at Petoskey
Tawas is back in the final week for the first time since 2003 and after finishing only 8-11 a year ago. Senior guard Jenna Szostak leads three players scoring in double figures with 19.8 points and 7.5 rebounds per game. Calumet is making its first trip to the Quarterfinals since 1977 and is two losses by a combined 12 points to Class B Houghton from a perfect record. The Copper Kings have won at least 15 games three straight season.
Niles Brandywine (23-1) vs. Laingsburg (25-0) at Comstock Park
Niles Brandywine will play in its fifth Quarterfinal in six seasons, seeking its first Semifinal berth since 2010. The Bobcats are an incredible 138-9 under coach Josh Hood over those six seasons and lost this winter only to Class A Kalamazoo Central. Junior forward Makenna Hartline is the leading scorer at 14.4 ppg. Laingsburg has made its first Quarterfinal with a balanced approach – only junior guard Lindsey Smith (11.2) averages more than eight points per game. The Wolfpack beat four teams this postseason that had won at least 17 games.
Homer (21-4) vs. Ypsilanti Arbor Prep (21-3) at Michigan Center
Homer finished runner-up in the Big 8 Conference and continued into its first Quarterfinal appearance since 1982 – and despite finishing only 10-11 a year ago. Arbor Prep will play in its second straight Quarterfinal with a chance to win 22 games for the second straight as well despite a schedule loaded with Class A and B teams including three still playing this week. The team has only three seniors, but all three start. Junior guard Nastassja Chambers leads, scoring 15.3 points per game.
Saginaw Nouvel (19-6) vs. Flint Hamady (23-1) at Davison
Nouvel, the reigning Class C champion, has faced plenty of challenging opponents in all four classes this season, although Hamady should be one of the toughest with a combined record of 47-2 over the last two seasons. Junior guard Jalisha Terry has plenty of experience on the winning side in her third season on varsity, while Nouvel junior guard Laurel Jacqmain scores 18.9 points per game and also was the Cougars’ leading scorer in last season’s MHSAA Final.
Class D
St. Joseph Michigan Lutheran (21-1) vs. Pittsford (24-0) at Battle Creek Harper Creek
Michigan Lutheran has won an incredible 19 straight league titles and six District crowns in seven seasons, but added their first Regional title since 2004 last week. The lone loss was early to Frankfort, also a quarterfinalist, and senior guard Hailey Maas leads three scorers averaging double figures at 14.5 ppg. Pittsford has been the lone undefeated Class D team since midseason and will be making its first Quarterfinal appearance – but is a combined 62-7 over the last three seasons. Sophomores Maddie Clark and Jaycie Burger lead with 19.4 and 17.9 points per game, respectively.
Waterford Our Lady (11-12) vs. Kingston (21-3) at Warren Mott, 6 p.m.
Our Lady followed up its run of four straight Class D championship games from 2010-13 with a sub-.500 finish last season, but can get back to even this winter by continuing this surprise run. The Lakers likely are on the rise for the next few seasons, as no starter this winter is a senior, and with freshman Tiffany Senerius and junior Alex Troy (both 10 points per game) their leading scorers. Kingston won its second Regional title ever and first since 2003, and benefits from a balanced starting lineup with four starters scoring 8.8-11.5 points per game, including seniors Jenna Boyl and Cassidy McGuire.
Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart (20-4) vs. Frankfort (23-1) at Traverse City Central
The reigning champion Irish have a similar but more veteran look after graduating only one senior from last season’s team. Sacred Heart this time has six seniors including 2014 tournament heroes Averi Gamble (16 ppg) at center and Riley Terwilliger (9.5 ppg) at guard. Frankfort hopes to take the next step after also reaching the Quarterfinals last season. Junior guard Mackenna Kelly leads with 17.1 points per game, and sophomore Cecelia Schmitt adds 13.5.
St. Ignace (19-5) vs. Crystal Falls Forest Park (21-4) at Negaunee
This is a matchup of 2014 Finals runners-up – Forest Park from Class D and St. Ignace formerly of Class C. The Trojans are back in the final week despite graduating Miss Basketball winner Lexi Gussert last spring; three senior starters and first-year coach Jackie Giuliani have led this team to its fourth straight Quarterfinal. The Saints are seeking their sixth straight trip to the Semifinals and have a pair of standout scorers in junior forward Abbey Ostman (16.6 ppg) and senior guard Margo Brown (13.8 ppg, 51 3-pointers).
PHOTO: Detroit Martin Luther King defeated Grosse Pointe South during last week's Regional. (Photo courtesy of the Detroit Public School League.)
Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.