Breslin Bound: Girls Quarterfinal Preview
March 11, 2014
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
We've reached the final week of another MHSAA girls basketball season. And we're guaranteed to name at least three new champions when this week is done.
Only St. Ignace, last season's Class D winner, is still alive heading into tonight's Quarterfinals. And the Saints are playing in Class C this winter.
See below for brief previews of all 16 Quarterfinal games, and click for brackets and more to be updated as scores are reported tonight.
(NOTE: ppg=point per game, rpg=rebounds per game, apg=assists per game, spg=steals per game, bpg=blocks per game.)
Class A
Canton (20-4) vs. Flint Carman-Ainsworth (17-7) at Fenton
Canton is looking to return to Breslin for the first time since back-to-back trips in 2010 and 2011. The Chiefs can rely on a strong frontcourt including 5-10 senior forward Paige Aresco (14.7 ppg) and 6-1 senior Taylor Hunley (10 ppg). Carman-Ainsworth advanced with an overtime upset of Midland in the Regional Final and is having its best season under sixth-year coach Johnese Vaughn. Junior guard Sydnee McDonald leads three scorers averaging double figures with 18.5 points per game.
Grand Ledge (23-2) vs. Grand Rapids Christian (20-5) at DeWitt
The Comets are in the Quarterfinals for the second straight season and seeking their first trip to Finals weekend. Their losses came to DeWitt and Detroit Martin Luther King, both in December. Senior sisters Hannah and Lindsay Orwat lead the way scoring 15 and 13.4 points per game, respectively, and 6-3 junior center Cori Crocker averages 10.7 and has committed to play volleyball at the University of Michigan. Grand Rapids Christian has been a power for much longer, but is in its first Quarterfinal since 2003. Junior guard Kortney Deurloo is the leading scorer at 12.9 ppg and makes half of her shots from the floor.
Romulus (21-4) vs. Farmington Hills Mercy (24-1) at Ferndale
Mercy might look like a certain favorite in this game after eliminating previous favorite Detroit King by 12 in the Regional Final. But Romulus has only two losses in-state this winter, and both came to teams playing tonight as well (Detroit Country Day and Frankfort). Senior forward Cierra Bond averages 13.9 points and 6.8 rebounds per game to lead the team. Mercy’s only loss came in overtime to Bloomfield Hills Marian, a possible Breslin opponent. Junior guard Taylor Jones tops a balanced lineup at 12.5 ppg.
Port Huron Northern (19-6) vs. Bloomfield Hills Marian (22-2) at St. Clair Shores Lake Shore
Like with Mercy losing only to Marian, Marian’s only losses were both to Mercy – and the Mustangs surely are prepared for a rematch that could mean their first championship game berth since winning the title in 1998. Juniors Kara Holinski and Brittany Gray average 10 points per game to top a rotation with six players averaging at least 6.1 ppg. Northern has built every year under coach Mark Dickinson, increasing its win total each of the last six seasons. Similar to Marian, six average at least 5.1 ppg, led by juniors Becca Richards (10.4) and Riley Fealko (10.8).
Class B
Parchment (23-2) vs. Grand Rapids South Christian (24-0) at Wayland
A trio of senior starters have helped Parchment top 20 wins for the second time in three seasons, with two losses to Olivet by a combined three points all that has kept the team from perfection. Seniors Kendyl Hinton (12.9 ppg) and Meredith Stutz (12.7) are the leading scorers and rebounders and also top the team in assists and blocked shots. South Christian, with five senior starters, is back in the Quarterfinals for the second straight season with a balanced effort including seven who average at least four points per game but none more than 9.4.
Midland Bullock Creek (23-1) vs. Sparta (14-10) at Bay City Western
Three starters are back from Bullock Creek’s Semifinal run last season, including leading scorer and junior Halee Nieman (12.9 ppg). Two more juniors, Ellie Juengel (12.5) and Hannah Heldt (10.9), give the team multiple scoring threats. Sparta definitely is more of a surprise this week after beating Menominee in overtime in the Regional Final and handing Manistee its only loss, by four, in the Regional opener. But the Spartans have won three straight District titles. They are keyed by junior center Franchesca Buchanan (11.8 ppg, 7.2 rpg).
Detroit Country Day (22-1) vs. Flint Powers Catholic (22-2) at Imlay City
This is a rematch of last season’s Quarterfinal, a 20-point Powers win. A young Chargers team then has taken a few more steps, with its only losses to Farmington Hills Mercy and Saginaw Nouvel, Quarterfinalists in Class A and C, respectively. Three starters are back from last season’s championship game. Country Day’s only loss came in early February to Ypsilanti Arbor Prep, another Class B Quarterfinalist, and the Yellowjackets have won all of their games since by at least 18 points.
Ypsilanti Arbor Prep (22-3) vs. Eaton Rapids (20-5) at Brighton
Arbor Prep has grown to Class B this season after falling to eventual champion Manchester in Class C last season. The Gators haven’t lost this calendar year, with defeats to Class A Detroit Martin Luther King and Bloomfield Hills and reigning Class B champion Goodrich all coming before the new year. Eaton Rapids often has been overshadowed in a strong Lansing area, but has won 20 games for the second time in three seasons and its first Regional title under 15-year coach Willis Whitmyer. Senior 6-1 center Allie Dittmer leads an athletic and experienced lineup with 14.6 points and 9.3 rebounds per game.
Class C
Saginaw Nouvel (19-4) vs. St. Louis (20-4) at Reese
Nouvel is seeking its second straight championship game appearance after falling to Manchester by five in last season’s Class C Final. Senior forward Rachel McInerney (11.7 ppg) was a standout on that team and leads this one as well along with sophomore guard Laurel Jacqmain (12.4 ppg). St. Louis has made steady progress under coach Walter Berry, posting four straight winning seasons and its first championships of his 12-season tenure. Senior center Bri Alspaugh (10.7 ppg) leads seven players averaging at least five points per game.
Gobles (25-0) vs. Mendon (20-2) at Watervliet
Gobles has won 20 games for the second straight season and is on its best run during coach John Curtis’ 12 seasons – and beat Mendon by four only three weeks ago. Senior forward Michaela DeKilder leads the way with 15.2 points and 9.6 rebounds per game. Mendon won its fifth District title in six seasons last month, and senior guard Brooke Howard (18.9 ppg, 7.7 rpg) leads a group of eight seniors trying to finish with a few more wins this week.
Blissfield (21-0) vs. Grosse Pointe Woods University Liggett (19-3) at Whitmore Lake
The Royals dispatched of reigning champion Manchester in the Regional opener after winning their second straight District title. Senior forward Claire Denecker is menacing in the post averaging 16.2 points, 10.2 rebounds and 5.1 blocked shots per game. University Liggett can make it to Breslin for the second time in three seasons, now guided by former Detroit Consortium and Cass Tech coach Omar Ahart. Three of this season's starters played in the team’s Class C Final in 2012, including leading scorer and junior Jessica Rotzoll (13.5 ppg).
McBain (21-1) vs. St. Ignace (22-2) at Gaylord
Last season’s Class D champion, St. Ignace is back in Class C and lost only to strong Reese and Class A Marquette, both in December. Senior guard Kelley Wright has been a top player the last few seasons and averages 16.2 points, 4.2 assists and 6.7 steals per game. McBain is back for its fourth Quarterfinal in six seasons and beat an impressive group of teams the last two weeks to get here. Junior guard Meredith Hamlet makes nearly half of her shots and more than 40 percent from 3-point range in averaging 21.3 points per game, in addition to 8.1 rpg and 6.7 apg.
Class D
Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart (19-5) vs. Frankfort (23-1) at Cadillac
A 13-point defeat to one-loss Class B Manistee is all that’s kept Frankfort from perfection this winter, with sophomore guard Mackenna Kelly (13.8 ppg) the high scorer on a team with only one senior. Coincidentally, Sacred Heart has only one senior as well – point guard Sara Hansen, who paces the Irish with 19 points, 3.1 assists and 5.4 steals per game. Only one of Sacred Heart’s losses came to a Class D team.
Clarkston Everest Collegiate (18-6) vs. Marine City Cardinal Mooney (19-4) at Waterford Mott
This is the fourth time these two will play this season; Cardinal Mooney won the first two games by nine and three points (in double overtime), respectively, before Everest won by two in the Detroit Catholic League Tournament. Senior 6-0 forward Lucia Westrick leads the Mountaineers at 14 points per game, while senior guard Katie Theut leads three Cardinal Mooney players who average double digits scoring with 20.1 points and 4.3 assists per game.
Posen (25-0) vs. Crystal Falls Forest Park (24-0) at Sault Ste. Marie
Forest Park is making its last run with senior guard Lexi Gussert (29.4 ppg, 7.7 apg, 11.9 rpg) and hasn’t played anything resembling a close game aside from maybe the 17-point Regional Final win over Eben Junction Superior Central. She will play at Michigan State next season. Posen finally broke through to the final week after five straight District titles and four straight 20-plus win seasons, and has a big-time scorer as well. Senior 6-1 center Korynn Hincka averages 27.5 points and 11.5 rebounds per game.
Lansing Christian (11-11) vs. Athens (21-3) at Battle Creek Harper Creek
Athens is in its fourth straight Quarterfinal and made the Semifinals last season, and boasts a solid inside-out combination of junior guard Allison Fuller (13.5 ppg, 3.5 spg) and senior center Audrey Oswalt (12.1 ppg, 7.8 rpg). Lansing Christian’s record shouldn’t be taken at face value – the Pilgrims played a number of Class B and C teams this season and two teams still playing tonight. Six-foot senior Mikayla Terry (15.6 ppg, 11.9 rpg) will give Oswalt plenty of work in the paint.
PHOTO: Farmington Hills Mercy's Sam Bauer (3) pushes the ball upcourt during her team's Regional Final win over Detroit Martin Luther King. (Photo courtesy of Detroit Public School League.)
Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.