Breslin Bound: Girls District Preview
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
March 2, 2020
The season begins anew tonight for more than 700 girls basketball teams across Michigan.
This week will end with 128 taking a giant first step as they pursue championship opportunities at Breslin Center later this month.
District tournaments tip off all over the state, and again, for the first time, with the top two seeded teams separated on opposite sides of the bracket. Check out “Tracking the Tournament” on MHSAA.com for every matchup from all of them, and see below for some of last week’s most eye-catching scores and three Districts in each division that could play especially important roles in who makes those trips to East Lansing later down this tournament road.
“Breslin Bound” is powered by MI Student Aid and based on results and schedules posted for each school at MHSAA.com. Send corrections or missing scores to [email protected].
Week in Review
The countdown of last week’s five most intriguing results:
1. Detroit Renaissance 44, Farmington Hills Mercy 32 – The Detroit Public School League champion Phoenix (18-2) defeated the Detroit Catholic League Bishop champion Marlins (17-3) in the annual Operation Friendship game.
2. Hartland 32, Brighton 30 – The Eagles (19-1) added this two-point victory to a previous three-pointer over the Bulldogs (17-3) to claim the overall Kensington Lakes Activities Association title.
3. Hemlock 41, Ithaca 39 – The Huskies won the matchup of teams both 18-2 overall to clinch the Tri-Valley Conference West title outright.
4. Charlevoix 45, Traverse City St. Francis 11 – Expectations could have sunk preseason when all-stater Elise Stuck was ruled out for the winter with an injury; instead Charlevoix (15-5) won the Lake Michigan Conference, clinching the title outright against the second-place Gladiators (16-4). And Stuck has returned for the postseason
5. Grass Lake 62, Adrian Lenawee Christian 57 (2OT) – Defeating the reigning Division 4 champ should be a major confidence booster for Grass Lake entering the postseason, with the unfortunate sidebar that Lenawee Christian star Bree Salenbien was lost for the playoffs with a knee injury during the first overtime.
Districts at a Glance
These could be among our most competitive brackets. Host sites are in bold:
DIVISION 1
Bloomfield Hills Marian
1. Bloomfield Hills Marian (15-5), 2. Southfield Arts & Technology (13-7), Birmingham Groves (10-10), Berkley (15-4), Royal Oak (9-11), Birmingham Seaholm (8-12).
Marian capped its toughest stretch of the season with a win over Detroit Cass Tech 45-36 on Thursday, and the Mustangs enter the postseason with the No. 8 MPR in all of Division 1. They face Seaholm first, with Berkley (No. 50 in Division 1) awaiting the winner. On the other side of the bracket, Southfield A&T has the No. 20 MPR after facing many of the state’s best in Divisions 1, 2 and 3, and the Warriors rode a four-game league winning streak to a shared title in the Oakland Activities Association Red. Last season’s Division 1 runner-up will be plenty prepared for its toughest matchups to come, with a 59-47 victory over Carman-Ainsworth on Jan. 28 showing its potential.
Caledonia
1. East Grand Rapids (19-1), 2. East Kentwood (16-3), Byron Center (19-1), Middleville Thornapple Kellogg (11-9), Wyoming (6-14), Caledonia (4-16), Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills (3-17).
This loaded District features three of the top teams statewide by Division 1 MPR, with East Grand Rapids No. 5, East Kentwood No. 9 and Byron Center No. 21. EGR won the Ottawa-Kent Conference Gold and a Dec. 17 meeting with East Kentwood 50-43, before the Falcons went 14-1 the rest of the way and claimed the O-K Red title. East Kentwood opens play tonight against O-K Green champion Byron Center, also in a rematch. The Falcons handed the Bulldogs their lone loss of the winter in the season opener, 48-43.
Swartz Creek
1. Flint Carman-Ainsworth (16-4), 2. Saginaw Heritage (12-8), Flushing (15-5), Swartz Creek (13-7), Saginaw (0-18).
Carman-Ainsworth enters the postseason with the fourth-highest MPR in all of Division 1, with Heritage 26th and Flushing 46th. All three are league champions, Flushing in the Flint Metro League Stripes where Swartz Creek finished third. The Raiders and Cavaliers meet in an opener tonight in a rematch of a Dec. 6 meeting won by Carman-Ainsworth 38-30 before it started its march to the Saginaw Valley League Blue title. SVL Red co-champ Heritage awaits on the other side of the bracket, and Carman-Ainsworth also won their lone meeting 58-39 on Jan. 7.
DIVISION 2
Buchanan
1. Edwardsburg (19-1), 2. Three Rivers (17-3), Niles (11-9), Buchanan (15-5), Berrien Springs (8-12), Dowagiac (2-18)
The Wolverine Conference South co-champions top this District, having split their matchups this season – Three Rivers won 62-44 on Dec. 20, and Edwardsburg then won 56-32 on Jan. 31. On the way to a possible third meeting, Three Rivers will have to go through Buchanan and Niles. The Bucks finished second in the Berrien-Cass-St. Joseph Conference Red to Niles Brandywine, one of the most highly-regarded teams in Division 4. Niles, meanwhile, was runner-up in the Division 1-dominated Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference West.
Cadillac
1. Big Rapids (19-1), 2. Cadillac (19-1), Benzie Central (11-9), Ludington (16-4), Manistee (7-12), Reed City (4-16).
The first four all are top-45 in Division 2 MPR. Big Rapids made a huge jump from 6-14 last season to share the title in a Central State Activities Association Gold that featured five of eight teams with at least 11 wins. After losing to co-champ Fremont by six on Dec. 20, the Cardinals (No. 18 MPR) have won 14 straight. Cadillac’s only loss came to Division 3 contender Maple City Glen Lake by six Feb. 10, as the Vikings (No. 14) otherwise cruised to a Big North Conference championship and also earned a six-point win from Ludington on Feb. 18. Those two face off in an opener tonight; Ludington’s only losses this winter were nonleague as it finished a perfect run through the Lakes 8 Activities Conference and built the No. 41 MPR. Benzie Central will be upset-minded on the other side of the bracket after building a No. 45 MPR by coming in third in a Northwest Conference featuring co-champs Glen Lake and Kingsley.
Chelsea
1. Chelsea (17-3), 2. Parma Western (18-2), Eaton Rapids (14-6), Onsted (13-7), Hillsdale (4-16).
The first four teams listed above all are top-50 by MPR, with Parma Western the second seed but moving past Chelsea over the last two weeks for the District’s highest rating at No. 8 in Division 2. The Panthers are carrying an eight-game winning streak and defeated second-place Battle Creek Harper Creek 51-35 on Friday to claim the outright Interstate 8 Athletic Conference title. Chelsea, No. 11 in MPR, shared the Southeastern Conference White title with Dexter and got a nice test Friday in a 10-point loss to Division 1 No. 1 Ann Arbor Huron. The Bulldogs open with Eaton Rapids (No. 40), which has lost three of its last four but tied for second in a loaded Capital Area Activities Conference White. Onsted (No. 43) awaits the winner of Chelsea/Eaton Rapids.
DIVISION 3
Centreville
1. Centreville (19-1), 2. Schoolcraft (18-2), White Pigeon (15-4), Constantine (7-13), Marcellus (7-11).
Centreville has won the Southwest 10 Conference title all three seasons of its existence and will look to build on last year’s Regional Final run. But the Bulldogs’ only loss this winter came Feb. 7 in the second regular-season meeting against White Pigeon, which tied for second in the SW10 and will be awaiting in a District Semifinal the winner of tonight’s Centreville/Constantine opener. On the other side of the bracket, Schoolcraft won the Southwestern Athletic Conference Valley title for the third-straight year, and is likely further motivated after last year’s first-game District exit. Centreville is No. 6, Schoolcraft No. 9 and White Pigeon No. 29 in Division 3 MPR.
Grass Lake
1. Brooklyn Columbia Central (18-2), 2. Grass Lake (18-2), Michigan Center (17-3), East Jackson (10-10), Vandercook Lake (0-20).
Grass Lake has been considered a championship contender nearly all of this season with wins over reigning Division 3 title winner Pewamo-Westphalia plus Parma Western, Michigan Center and more recently reigning Division 4 champ Adrian Lenawee Christian to its credit. But the Warriors did fall in a rematch to Michigan Center, 65-55 on Feb. 4, and the two shared the Cascades Conference title. Grass Lake is up to No. 7 in Division 3 MPR and Michigan Center No. 11, and they face off in a District Semifinal on Wednesday. On the other side of the bracket, Columbia Central is No. 4 in MPR and the top seed after claiming the Lenawee County Athletic Association title. BCC’s losses came to Parma Western in the season opener and Lenawee Christian on Feb. 7, but it swept Division 2 No. 17 Ida.
Lake City
1. Manton (18-2), 2. Lake City (19-1), McBain (13-7), Houghton Lake (12-8), Roscommon (2-18).
Lake City moved all the way up to No. 5 in the final Division 3 MPR with wins over second-place Manton and third-place McBain over the last two weeks to win the Highland Conference. The Trojans – Division 3 semifinalists a year ago – then closed the regular season by handing Bellaire its only loss. The Highland might have been the toughest Division 3 league in the state; Manton finished No. 10 in MPR, McBain No. 30 and fourth-place Houghton Lake No. 53. Manton opens with Houghton Lake tonight, while McBain and Lake City face off in a Wednesday District Semifinal.
DIVISION 4
DeTour
St. Ignace (17-2), Pickford (16-3), Cedarville (12-6), DeTour (7-13), Mackinac Island (7-8).
This District features the Nos. 2, 10 and 14 teams in Division 4 MPR, although the Saints are the reigning Division 4 runners-up and enter with a 22-point win over Pickford and 24 and 36-point wins over Cedarville to their credit. St. Ignace also has wins over Division 1 No. 1 Ann Arbor Huron and Division 2 No. 6 Sault Ste. Marie and No. 20 Goodrich. But all of that said, the Pickford win came Jan. 15 and the rematch was canceled – so the Panthers should be raring for this one if the teams meet in Friday’s District Final.
Hillsdale Academy
1. Camden-Frontier (18-2), 2. Hillsdale Academy (15-5), Pittsford (17-3), Waldron (2-17), Morenci (3-17), Hillsdale Will Carleton Academy (7-10).
Camden-Frontier finished first, Pittsford second and Hillsdale Academy third in a loaded Southern Central Athletic Association East, and they finished Nos. 13, 23 and 33, respectively in Division 4 MPR. Camden-Frontier and Pittsford meet tonight; the Redskins won the regular-season meetings 54-34 and 56-46. C-F split with Hillsdale Academy, losing the first 52-45 but winning the second 45-37. If Pittsford upsets C-F tonight and reaches a Friday matchup with Hillsdale Academy, they too split during the regular season – Hillsdale Academy winning 45-34 on Feb. 15 and Pittsford winning 44-43 five days later.
Lansing Christian
Fowler (16-4), Portland St. Patrick (16-4), Morrice (14-5), Lansing Christian (10-10), Webberville (3-17).
Fowler finished second and Portland St. Patrick third in the Central Michigan Athletic Conference behind reigning Division 3 champion Pewamo-Westphalia, and now they’ll have the opportunity to surge like Fowler did in making the Semifinals last season. Similarly, Morrice finished second in the Genesee Area Conference to reigning Division 3 runner-up Flint Hamady. The Orioles see St. Patrick in a District Semifinal on Wednesday – St. Patrick won a Jan. 22 game with Morrice 52-13, and a repeat would set up a possible Friday rematch with Fowler. The Eagles took both meetings with the Shamrocks this season, but they were close – Fowler won 52-49 on Dec. 18 and then 61-53 in double overtime Jan. 30. Fowler is No. 4, St. Patrick No. 17 and Morrice No. 29 in Division 4 MPR.
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PHOTO: Detroit Edison in Division 2 and Flint Carman-Ainsworth in Division 1 met Feb. 25 and are among favorites in Divisions 2 and 1, respectively. Edison won 73-50. (Photo by Terry Lyons.)
Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.