Breslin Bound: Girls District Preview
February 27, 2017
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
We’ve spent the regular season trying to get a grasp of which teams might be the ones to beat once the MHSAA Tournament began.
Starting tonight, every girls basketball team in Michigan gets to start over – and those favorites can show if what they’ve accomplished the last three months will carry over to the most important three weeks of this winter.
Over the next two weeks, we’ll alter the format of our Breslin Bound reports – powered by MI Student Aid – still looking at some of the key results from last week but also at three of the most eye-catching brackets in each class for the upcoming week of playoffs. This week, that means we’ll take closer looks at 12 Districts total in addition to some scores from last week that could be telling as we roll into March.
Week in Review
The countdown of last week’s five most intriguing results:
1. Detroit Martin Luther King 48 Farmington Hills Mercy 45 (OT) – Mercy gave the Crusaders their toughest challenge in two months, but King won the Operation Friendship headliner to finish 19-1.
2. Bark River-Harris 73, Crystal Falls Forest Park 60 – Not only did the Broncos upset a Class D championship favorite, but they also ended up finishing ahead of the Trojans for the Skyline Central Conference West title.
3. Traverse City St. Francis 49, Gaylord St. Mary 39 – The Lake Michigan Conference co-champ downed the Ski Valley Conference winner in a matchup of teams that are a combined 37-3.
4. Hartland 61, Wayne Memorial 48 – The Eagles went from second in the West division last season to overall Kensington Lakes Activities Association champions with this win Friday.
5. Saginaw Heritage 52, Flint Carman-Ainsworth 22 – The Hawks finished 19-1 with this Saginaw Valley League crossover win over South champion Carman-Ainsworth, which suffered two of its three losses this season to Heritage.
Districts at a Glance
These could be among our most competitive brackets. Host sites are in bold:
CLASS A
Muskegon-Reeths-Puffer
Grand Haven (14-6), Grand Rapids Kenowa Hills (5-15), Grand Rapids Union (2-17), Muskegon (11-9), Muskegon Mona Shores (17-3), Muskegon Reeths-Puffer (15-5).
The three Muskegon teams took turns pushing each other this winter in the Ottawa-Kent Conference Black as Mona Shores won the league title, Reeths-Puffer was second and Muskegon High finished third. The Sailors – led by Miss Basketball finalist Jordan Walker – won a District title last year and made the Regional Final, and this season avenged their lone league loss to Reeths-Puffer on Jan. 20 with a two-point victory in the rematch Feb. 17. Grand Haven was the runner-up to East Kentwood in the O-K Red and hardly would be a surprise champion with wins this season over Reeths-Puffer and Muskegon (and an 11-point loss to Mona Shores.)
Saginaw Heritage
Bay City Central (4-16), Bay City Western (13-7), Midland (14-6), Midland Dow (18-2), Mount Pleasant (7-13), Saginaw Heritage (19-1).
Heritage and Dow shared the Saginaw Valley League North title, so it wouldn’t surprise anyone if the winner of a Wednesday Semifinal between the two determines the eventual champion of this District. Heritage won the first meeting by three in overtime, but Dow won the rematch by two Feb. 10. Midland, on the other side of the bracket, could be ready to pounce in the championship game if that Wednesday winner has a letdown.
Troy
Auburn Hills Avondale (14-6), Birmingham Groves (18-2), Birmingham Seaholm (9-11), Bloomfield Hills (19-1), Bloomfield Hills Marian (15-5), Troy (6-14).
Bloomfield Hills has won 18 straight since losing early to Caledonia, running the table in the Oakland Activities Association White and earning a notable one-point nonleague win over Clarkston along the way. That’s a jump from 14-7 a year ago, when the Black Hawks fell in their District opener to Marian. The Mustangs went on to reach the Regional Final in 2016, and remain among the elite in Class A – especially considering three of this season’s losses came to Detroit Catholic League champion Farmington Hills Mercy. Bloomfield Hills and Marian would meet in the District Final this week – but Avondale will try to break into the mix as well.
CLASS B
Allendale
Allendale (1-19), Coopersville (8-12), Hamilton (19-1), Holland Christian (16-4), Hudsonville Unity Christian (12-8), Zeeland West (9-11).
The top four finishers from the O-K Green will square off again, with Hamilton coming off a perfect league run but with a one-point win over Unity in January and a two-pointer over Holland Christian last month. Hamilton and Unity meet in the 5:30 opener tonight. Coopersville, fourth in the O-K Blue, comes in with five wins over its last eight games.
Birch Run
Birch Run (17-3), Bridgeport (7-13), Carrollton (5-15), Frankenmuth (15-5), Saginaw Swan Valley (15-5).
The most intriguing matchup would come in the District Semifinal, where the host Panthers could see rival Frankenmuth for the first time since breaking the Eagles’ 105-game winning streak in the Tri-Valley Conference East on Feb. 7. But Birch Run must first fend off Swan Valley, which tied for second in the TVC Central behind undefeated Freeland but got within a point of beating the Falcons in their most recent meeting Jan. 31.
Midland Bullock Creek
Bay City John Glenn (16-4), Essexville Garber (13-7), Freeland (20-0), Midland Bullock Creek (11-9), Sanford Meridian Early College (1-19).
Freeland has won five straight District titles but will face its biggest test right away tonight in John Glenn, which eliminated the Falcons in the Regional Final last season on the way to making the Class B Semifinals. Garber in the District Semifinal and likely Bullock Creek in the championship game will give whichever team emerges tonight a few more notable obstacles this week.
CLASS C
Carson City-Crystal
Bath (17-3), Byron (16-4), Carson City-Crystal (17-2), Dansville (1-19), Laingsburg (17-3), Pewamo-Westphalia (18-2).
It would be easy, yet unwise, to look at this District strictly from the point of view that it includes the top three teams from the Central Michigan Athletic Conference, led by champion Bath. The Bees’ losses certainly were impressive – to Class A Howell, Class B favorite Ypsilanti Arbor Prep and to Laingsburg by a bucket. But host Carson City-Crystal has an argument as the favorite; it finished runner-up in the Mid-State Activities Conference to Class D power Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart and split with the Irish. Byron, meanwhile, shared the championship in the Genesee Area Conference Blue and takes on the Eagles tonight.
Negaunee
Gwinn (4-15), Ishpeming (15-5), Munising (20-0), Negaunee (16-4).
There are only four teams at this District, but it’s quite a group. Munising has won all of its games by at least 13 points and all but one by at least 20. The Mustangs are led by a strong senior class that won last season’s District but was stopped by Crystal Falls Forest Park in the Regional; Forest Park is in Class D this season, and regardless Munising beat the Trojans in that 13-point victory. Negaunee and Ishpeming finished second and third, respectively, in the Mid-Peninsula Athletic Conference and are formidable as well; Negaunee won its District in 2016.
Sandusky
Genesee (9-9), Kingston (18-2), Marlette (10-9), Millington (11-9), Reese (18-2), Vassar (2-18), Sandusky (20-0).
We’ve mentioned more than once this season the strength of Class C in the Thumb, and some of those contenders will face off immediately this week. Undefeated Sandusky is on one side of this bracket and could see the winner of a Reese/Kingston Semifinal – although Millington surely will give Kingston a challenge tonight. Sandusky has wins over Marlette (twice), Reese and Kingston this season and hasn’t allowed an opponent to come closer than 10 points.
CLASS D
Auburn Hills Oakland Christian
Auburn Hills Oakland Christian (7-12), Clarkston Everest Collegiate (9-10), Novi Franklin Road Christian (16-4), Waterford Our Lady (15-5).
Our Lady is coming off losses to Class C Royal Oak Shrine and Class B Livonia Ladywood, but made the Class D Semifinals last season and prepped earlier this winter with defeats to Class B Detroit Country Day and Harper Woods Chandler Park and Class A Clarkston. Still, the Lakers could get an early test in Wednesday’s Semifinal against Franklin Road Christian, which has doubled its win total from last season when it won a District title.
Lake Linden-Hubbell
Baraga (17-2), Chassell (15-5), Dollar Bay (8-12), Lake Linden-Hubbell (4-16), Ontonagon (9-11), Painesdale-Jeffers (14-6).
All but Ontonagon are from the Copper Mountain Conference’s Copper Country division, so it’s expected the field will be chasing league champion Baraga again. The Vikings did split with runner-up Painesdale-Jeffers during the regular season and got by Chassell by only two points in their second game, so this week could be tightly-contested. Chassell won the District a year ago.
Pickford
Cedarville (12-8), DeTour (12-7), Mackinac Island (4-11), Pickford (16-4).
Four of six teams in the Eastern Upper Peninsula Athletic Conference won at least 12 games during the regular season, and three of them are in this District. Pickford downed DeTour by 15 and nine in their meetings and split with Cedarville, winning the rematch Feb. 2. The Panthers are playing for a third straight District title.
PHOTO: Muskegon Mona Shores and Muskegon High, facing off earlier this season, are together in one of the strongest Class A Districts this week. (Photo by Tim Reilly.)
Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.