Breslin Bound: Girls A-B Semis Preview
March 13, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
There are more unranked than top-ranked teams playing in this weekend's MHSAA Class A and B Semifinals at Michigan State University's Breslin Center.
Dexter and Midland Bullock Creek didn't receive a vote in The Associated Press' polls heading into the offseason. But they're still alive, unlike the number one teams in their respective classes.
That said, returning champions Grand Haven in Class A and Goodrich in Class B both are back hoping to repeat – and potentially as slight favorites again,.See below for this weekend's schedule, broadcast information and a quick look at all eight teams.
Semifinals - Friday
Class A
Westland John Glenn (24-1) vs Grand Haven (26-0), 1 p.m.
Grosse Pointe South (24-1) vs Dexter (23-3), 2:50 p.m.
Class B
Midland Bullock Creek (23-3) vs Flint Powers Catholic (20-6), 6 p.m.
Goodrich (23-3) vs Grand Rapids South Christian (24-1), 7:50 p.m.
Finals - Saturday
Class A - Noon
Class B - 6 pm
Class C - 4 pm
Class D - 10 am
Tickets cost $8 per pair of Semifinals and $10 per two-game Finals session. All Semifinals will be streamed live on MHSAA.tv and available on a pay-per-view basis for $3.95 per day, $6.95 for the weekend or $9.95 for all girls and boys Semifinals over the next two weekends. All four Finals will be broadcast live on Fox Sports Detroit. Free radio broadcasts of all weekend games will be available on MHSAANetwork.com.
Class A
DEXTER
Record/rank: 23-3, unranked
League finish: First in Southeastern Conference
Coach: Mike Bavineau, 17th season (240-142)
Championship history: Has not played in an MHSAA Final.
Best wins: 36-24 over Ann Arbor Huron (District Final), 37-34 over honorable mention Farmington Hills Harrison (Regional Final), 34-33 over Saginaw Heritage (Quarterfinal), 47-35 over Class C No. 3 Manchester.
Players to watch: Riley McDonald, 5-7 sr. G (7.7 ppg, 4.9 rpg); Emma Kill, 6-2 sr. F (7.0 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 2.2 spg).
Outlook: Dexter got over a major obstacle by beating Huron in the District Final after being swept by Huron during the regular season. That earned the Dreadnaughts their first District title since 2004, and they’ve gone on to win their first Regional since 1998. Balance has been key; four players average between seven and eight points per game, and three more average between four and six ppg.
GRAND HAVEN
Record/rank: 26-0, No. 3
League finish: First in O-K Red
Coach: Katie Kowalczyk-Fulmer, 15th season (247-109)
Championship history: Class A champion 2012.
Best wins: 43-35 over honorable mention Grand Ledge (Quarterfinal), 45-39 over Class B honorable mention Grand Rapids Catholic Central.
Players to watch: Abby Cole, 6-5 sr. C (13.6 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 8.3 bpg, 2.5 apg); Hannah Wilkerson, 5-9 sr. G (10.6 ppg, 2.2 apg).
Outlook: Cole was a star on last season’s championship team, and Wilkerson was a key sub. But they are the only two on this team that played in the 2012 Final – which makes this run even more impressive. Unlike last winter, Grand Haven comes into the final week undefeated. Cole, who will play volleyball at the University of Michigan this fall, finished third in the Miss Basketball voting earlier this week.
GROSSE POINTE SOUTH
Record/rank: 24-1, No. 2
League finish: First in Macomb Area Conference Red
Coach: Kevin Richards, sixth season (108-32)
Championship history: Class A runner-up 2012.
Best wins: 49-41 over honorable mention Brownstown-Woodhaven, 54-52, 57-52 and 59-48 (Regional Final) over honorable mention Macomb Dakota, 53-33 and 56-42 over honorable mention Utica Ford, 63-58 over No. 9 Bloomfield Hills Marian (Quarterfinal).
Players to watch: Cierra Rice, 5-8 soph. G (13.4 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 2.0 spg); Claire DeBoer, 6-1 sr. F (12.6 ppg, 9.7 rpg, 3.5 apg, 3.0 spg).
Outlook: South hasn’t lost since falling to Chicago Whitney Young in its first game this season and is 47-5 over the last two. Rice, DeBoer and senior guard Christy Flom all started in last season’s championship game, and sophomore guard Aliezza Brown got significant minutes. Brown averages 8.4 points and two assists per game off the bench this winter.
WESTLAND JOHN GLENN
Record/rank: 24-1, tied for No. 6
League finish: First in Kensington Lakes Activities Association (Kensington and overall)
Coach: Eric Kovatch, second season (44-4)
Championship history: Has not played in an MHSAA Final.
Best wins: 55-50 over No. 1 Detroit Martin Luther King (Quarterfinal), 55-47 over No. 8 Inkster (District Semifinal), 47-32 over honorable mention Brownstown-Woodhaven (Regional Final), 57-56 over honorable mention Novi, 71-44 over honorable mention Brighton, 57-40 over Class B honorable mention Flint Powers Catholic.
Players to watch: Raven Bankston, 5-7 sr. F (18 ppg); Raine Bankston, 5-7 sr. G (12 ppg).
Outlook: The Rockets have eliminated two teams that entered the postseason undefeated – and despite their impressive season so far, Tuesday’s win over King was a statement maker. Despite the slight upset, no one should be surprised: John Glenn is undefeated in this state this season as well, with its only loss to Toledo (Ohio) Rogers. Four players average in double figures, with senior guard Sha’Keya Graves averaging 11 points as a starter and junior Kaira Barnes scoring 12 per game off the bench.
Class B
FLINT POWERS CATHOLIC
Record/rank: 20-6, honorable mention
League finish: Second in Saginaw Valley Association South
Coach: Thom Staudacher, second season (28-19)
Championship history: Four MHSAA titles (most recently 2001), three runner-up finishes.
Best wins: 61-53 over No. 1 Freeland (Regional Semifinal), 50-30 over No. 6 Detroit Country Day (Quarterfinal), 44-35 over Saginaw Heritage, 64-41 over Class C honorable mention Flint Hamady.
Players to watch: Kim Berry, 5-11 sr. F (13.9 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 2.3 spg); Michela Coury, 6-1 jr. F (10.5 ppg, 14.3 rpg, 4.9 bpg), Ally Haran, 5-9 jr. G (10.7 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 4.0 spg, 5.0 apg).
Outlook: The last two weeks make it difficult to remember Powers began this season 3-5. The Chargers have been mostly unstoppable during an 11-game winning streak that has included eliminating the top-ranked team in Class B. It’s an incredible turnaround as well off last season’s 8-13 finish – and should continue with Berry and starting guard Darbie Barkman the only seniors.
GOODRICH
Record/rank: 23-3, No. 3
League finish: First in Genesee Area Conference Red
Coach: Jason Gray, 14th season (291-41)
Championship history: Class B champion 2012.
Best wins: 49-42 over honorable mention Haslett (Regional Semifinal), 58-57 over Class A No. 4 East Lansing.
Players to watch: Taylor Gleason, 5-9 sr. G (21.6 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 4.1 apg, 5.0 spg); Tania Davis, 5-4 soph. G (17.6 ppg, 4.0 apg, 3.2 spg).
Outlook: Goodrich runs four guards around 6-2 sophomore center Isabella O’Brien (1.1 blocks per game), and has two of the most explosive in Class B in Miss Basketball runner-up Gleason and Davis. Gleason has signed with Illinois for next season, and she and Davis have stepped their games up even more to fill in for senior guard Aketra Sevillian – a Penn State signee – who has missed the season with an injury. Goodrich’s losses were nearly as impressive as its wins – to No. 1 Freeland by four, Class A honorable mention Ann Arbor Huron by two and Ohio power Twinsburg.
GRAND RAPIDS SOUTH CHRISTIAN
Record/rank: 24-1, tied for No. 7
League finish: First in O-K Gold
Coach: Jim DeBruyn, 24th season (415-130)
Championship history: Class B champion 1988, one runner-up finish.
Best wins: 40-39, 53-39 and 46-33 (Regional Semifinal) over honorable mention Grand Rapids Catholic Central, 53-29 over Marshall (Quarterfinal), 58-44 and 46-35 (District Semifinal) over Wayland.
Players to watch: Angelique Gaddy, 5-4 sr. G (10.3 ppg, 3.5 apg, 2.8 spg); Cassidy Vredevoogd, jr. F (11.2 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 1.8 bpg).
Outlook: South Christian began taking steps toward this run last season, when it nearly doubled its wins from 2010-11 to go 21-4. The Sailors’ only loss came midseason to Wayland, and they’ve avenged it twice. South Christian has won its tournament games by an average of 24 points per.
MIDLAND BULLOCK CREEK
Record/rank: 23-3, unranked
League finish: Second in Tri-Valley Conference Central
Coach: Justin Freeland, 11th season (195-55)
Championship history: Has not played in an MHSAA Final.
Best wins: 49-42 over No. 2 Ludington (Regional Semifinal), 57-56 over honorable mention Clare (Quarterfinal).
Players to watch: Ellie Juengel, 5-8 soph. G (13.4 ppg, 4.2 apg); Halee Nieman, 5-10 soph. F (12.8 ppg, 3.0 spg); Kendra Shankel, 5-8 sr. F (10.5 ppg).
Outlook: Bullock Creek has put together outstanding seasons under Freeland, but made everything fall into place this winter for its first trip to Breslin in his 11 seasons. And the next may not be far off, as the two leading scorers are sophomores and only one senior starts. The Lancers’ losses came twice to No. 1 Freeland and once to Hemlock – which Bullock Creek then beat by 28 in the rematch.
PHOTO: Grosse Pointe South's Gretchen Shirar (20) works for a shot during a 49-41 win over Brownstown-Woodhaven in December. (Click to see more at HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)
Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.