Breslin Bound: Girls A-B Semis Preview
March 12, 2014
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
The most fun angle to this weekend's Class A and B Girls Basketball Finals at the Breslin Center is that none of the eight teams still alive in those classes has won an MHSAA championship since at least 1998.
In fact, four of the eight have never played in an MHSAA championship game.
That's not to say this is new ground for all of the teams making the trip. Aside from reigning champion Goodrich, the rest of the 2013 Class B final four returns intact. And Detroit Catholic League rivals Farmington Hills Mercy and Bloomfield Hills Marian have six champioships between them – with the guarantee one will be playing Saturday for the Class A title.
Here's a look at Friday and Saturday's schedule (Class C and D teams were previewed in a separate story earlier Wednesday):
Semifinals - Friday
Class A
Canton (21-4) vs. Grand Ledge (24-2), 1 p.m.
Farmington Hills Mercy (25-1) vs. Bloomfield Hills Marian (23-2), 2:50 p.m.
Class B
Grand Rapids South Christian (25-0) vs. Midland Bullock Creek (24-1), 6 p.m.
Flint Powers Catholic (23-2) vs. Eaton Rapids (21-5), 7:50 p.m.
Finals - Saturday
Class A - Noon
Class B - 6 pm
Class C - 4 pm
Class D - 10 am
Tickets cost $8 per pair of Semifinals and $10 per two-game Finals session. All Semifinals will be streamed live on MHSAA.TV on a pay-per-view basis. All four Finals will be broadcast live on Fox Sports Detroit, the Class D and A title games on FOX Sports Detroit's primary channel and the Class C and B games on FOX Sports Detroit-PLUS. Free radio broadcasts of all weekend games will be available on MHSAANetwork.com.
Here's a look at all eight Class A and B teams playing this weekend:
Class A
BLOOMFIELD HILLS MARIAN
Record/rank: 23-2, No. 5
League finish: Tied for first in Detroit Catholic League Central
Coach: Mary Cicerone, 31st season (558-193)
Championship history: Four MHSAA titles (most recent 1998), one runner-up finish.
Best wins: 49-38 over honorable mention Canton, 57-54 over No. 3 Farmington Hills Mercy, 41-27 over No. 9 Farmington Hills Harrison in District Semifinal, 56-48 and 66-40 over Class B honorable mention Dearborn Divine Child.
Players to watch: Brittany Gray, 5-11 jr. F (10.1 ppg, 4.5 rpg); Kara Holinski, 5-9 jr. G (10 ppg).
Outlook: The Mustangs have returned to the Semifinals for the first time since 1998 despite only one senior. Marian has been engaged in a tug of war with Catholic League rival Mercy all season, also losing twice to the Marlins, and that continues Friday. Cicerone is the sixth-winningest coach in MHSAA girls basketball history and leads one of the most consistently successful programs with only three sub-.500 finishes since taking over in 1983. Individuals' stats don’t stick out, but balance is a strength – six players average between six and 10 points per game.
CANTON
Record/rank: 21-4, honorable mention
League finish: First in Kensington Lakes Activities Association South
Coach: Brian Samulski, ninth season (165-48)
Championship history: Has not played in an MHSAA Final.
Best wins: 42-33 over honorable mention Holly in Regional Semifinal, 31-28, 31-29 and 48-34 (District Final) over Plymouth, 36-25 over Class B honorable mention Dearborn Divine Child.
Players to watch: Paige Aresco, 5-10 sr. F (14.6 ppg, 4.6 rpg); Taylor Hunley, 5-1 sr. C (10 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 1.4 bpg).
Outlook: Canton has lost only twice more since opening with defeats to Marian and Mercy, and defensively has been incredible – the Chiefs are giving up an average of only 28 points per game and grabbing 11.6 steals per. They are seeking their first championship game berth, but missed advancing back-to-back in 2009 and 2010 falling by a total of four points.
FARMINGTON HILLS MERCY
Record/rank: 25-1, No. 3
League finish: Tied for first in Detroit Catholic League Central
Coach: Gary Morris, 10th season (164-73)
Championship history: Two MHSAA titles (most recent 1982), four runner-up finishes.
Best wins: 58-46 over No. 1 Detroit Martin Luther King in Regional Final, 73-60 over No. 2 Grosse Pointe South in Regional Semifinal, 55-54 and 40-38 over No. 5 Bloomfield Hills Marian, 37-33 over honorable mention Canton, 62-59 over Class B No. 2 Goodrich, 59-46 over Class B No. 8 Flint Powers Catholic.
Players to watch: Taylor Jones, 5-7 jr. G (12.5 ppg); Candice Leatherwood, 5-6 sr. G (10.3 ppg, 4.0 apg).
Outlook: Emerging from the most competitive Regional in any class in recent memory, Mercy looks like a strong favorite this weekend. That lone loss came to Marian, by four in overtime, and the Marlins have won 20 straight including beating both the No. 1 and 2-ranked teams by double digits last week. Balance is a strength of this team as well – nine players have scored 10 or more points in at least one game this winter.
GRAND LEDGE
Record/rank: 24-2, No. 4
League finish: First in Capital Area Activities Conference Blue
Coach: David Jones, fifth season (79-36)
Championship history: Has not played in an MHSAA Final.
Best wins: 45-44 over No. 7 Richland Gull Lake in District Final, 36-32 over No. 6 Haslett in Regional Final, 56-44 over honorable mention Kalamazoo Central in Regional Semifinal.
Players to watch: Hannah Orwat, 5-8 sr. G (15 ppg); Lindsay Orwat, 5-8 sr. G (13.4 ppg); Cori Crocker, 6-3, jr. C (10.7 ppg, 11.5 rpg, 2.6 bpg).
Outlook: The Comets came into this season with high expectations, then opened 2-2 losing to honorable mention DeWitt and No. 1 Detroit Martin Luther King in December (although Lindsay Orwat was injured for the DeWitt game). Grand Ledge has run off 22 straight wins since to advance past the Quarterfinals for the first time ever after falling to eventual champion Grand Haven in that round last season. Crocker, who has committed to play volleyball at the University of Michigan, is one of three 6-footers in the lineup.
Class B
EATON RAPIDS
Record/rank: 21-5, honorable mention
League finish: Second in Capital Area Activities Conference Gold
Coach: Willis Whitmyer, 15th season (210-122)
Championship history: Has not played in an MHSAA Final.
Best wins: 53-37 over No. 6 Ypsilanti Arbor Prep in Quarterfinal, 69-29 over No. 9 Olivet in District opener, 33-30, 45-23 (District Final) over honorable mention Jackson Northwest, 57-44 over Class A No. 6 Haslett, 43-38 over Class A No. 10 Southgate Anderson.
Players to watch: Allie Dittmer, 6-1 sr. C (14.6 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 1.6 bpg); Kathryn Mills, 5-11 sr. F (10 ppg, 4.8 rpg).
Outlook: This run has been a long time coming for the Greyhounds, who have won four District and three league titles over the last nine seasons but had never advanced to Finals weekend. Eaton Rapids has won all of its tournament games by at least 10 points and eight straight by double digits despite facing a tough road to Breslin. All five starters and a top sub are seniors.
FLINT POWERS CATHOLIC
Record/rank: 23-2, No. 8
League finish: First in Saginaw Valley Association South
Coach: Thom Staudacher, third season (52-22)
Championship history: Four MHSAA titles (most recent 2001), four runner-up finishes.
Best wins: 51-31 over No. 4 Detroit Country Day in Quarterfinal, 58-51 over No. 2 Goodrich in Regional Final, 57-37 over honorable mention Frankenmuth in District Final, 65-22 over honorable mention Flat Rock, 54-26 over Class A No. 8 Midland.
Players to watch: Michela Coury, 6-2 sr. F (11.3 ppg, 9.6 rpg, 2.9 bpg), Ally Haran, 5-9 sr. G (12.2 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 4.1 apg, 4.4 spg), Sara Ruhstorfer, 5-5 sr. G (10.3 ppg, 2.9 spg).
Outlook: The Chargers who made an unexpected run for a young team last season are much more seasoned coming into this weekend, and they reinforced that fact by eliminating two of the top four ranked teams over the last week. Three starters from last season’s championship game loss are among those leading the way. The only losses this winter were to Class A Quarterfinalist Farmington Hills Mercy and Class C Quarterfinalist Saginaw Nouvel.
GRAND RAPIDS SOUTH CHRISTIAN
Record/rank: 25-0, No. 1
League finish: First in O-K Gold
Coach: Jim DeBruyn, 25th season (439-131)
Championship history: Class B champion 1988, one runner-up finish.
Best wins: 34-31 and 44-38 (Regional Semifinal) over honorable mention Holland Christian, 40-36, 28-27 and 50-45 (Regional Final) over honorable mention Grand Rapids Catholic Central.
Players to watch: Cassidy Vredevoogd, 6-0 sr. C (9.4 ppg, 4.6 rpg), Renee Broekhuizen, 5-11 sr. F (8.7 ppg, 4.1 rpg).
Outlook: South Christian is hoping to put the crowning achievement on a five-year run that has seen the Sailors improve from 11 to 12 to 21 to 23 and now to 25 wins over the last five seasons. They’ve also won two league, three District and two Regional titles during that time and advanced to last season’s Semifinals. Vredevoogd, Broekhuizen and senior Morgan Torres all started during that run as well.
MIDLAND BULLOCK CREEK
Record/rank: 24-1, No. 3
League finish: First in Tri-Valley Conference Central
Coach: Justin Freeland, 12th season (218-56)
Championship history: Has not played in an MHSAA Final.
Best wins: 51-45 over honorable mention Bay City John Glenn in District Final, 66-32 over No. 5 Clare in Regional Semifinal, 44-32 over honorable mention Frankenmuth, 43-33 over Class C No. 10 Saginaw Nouvel.
Players to watch: Ellie Juengel, 5-8 jr. G (12.5 ppg, 5.1 rpg); Halee Nieman, 5-11 jr. F (12.9 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 3.3 spg); Hannah Heldt, 5-7 jr. G (10.9 ppg).
Outlook: After making both the Quarterfinals and Semifinals last season for the first time, Bullock Creek has done the same this winter while suffering its only loss against league co-runner-up Hemlock. Nieman, Juengel, Heldt and sophomore forward Alyssa Mudd all started last season when the Lancers fell in overtime to Flint Powers Catholic in the Semifinal. And they could take this Breslin run to three straight, with only two seniors and no starters graduating this spring.
PHOTO: Bullock Creek's Halee Nieman works to get around Flint Powers' Ally Haran (23) while the Lancers' Ellie Juengel (24) anticipates the play during the teams' 2013 Semifinal.
Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.